Good day guys...
05/11/2018 Interim 39.40
04/06/2018 Final 50.84
31/10/2017 Interim 46.40
OK we in final dividend stage...last year 50 c
total divi last year 97c
Current share price about +-R1.80
trading statement said divi will be at lower end of scale ( worst case scenario).74% of last years 50c and company will retain 25% of this = 50c *.74*.75 = 27.75c
so just this final divi gives you return of 27.75/1.80 =15%
Interim last year 40c...lets apply same assuming worst case =39*.74*.75 = 21.64c
so should get total divi of 49c if you bought and held for a year from now..return = 49c / R1.80 = 27%
so someones claim of a 15% totally incorrect..out by nearly 180% ..eish..poor calculations...back to school for him.
Im my case average cost about R2.38 = 49/2.38 =20.5% ill take this anyway...
Note reits dividend is taxable as taxable income..No dividend exemption. So make sure you buy in some family name eg wife or kids who have no taxable income or below tax threshold.
Now for the attackers and so called Gurus and there comments:
1. Divi down 25% ....yes
2. occupatuion rate down 15%...20% more likely imo
3. margins flat : if not lower
4. Building unsafe . have you seen the properties to make this comment? One rotten egg does not make all eggs rotten.Go do some more homwork. Already R32m capex budgeted and about R10m already spent on this building.
and so again you post incorrect info..Go see my post . Ive said ive seen all the buildings in Durban and they in tip top condition. Did i say Pretoria? another misleading post (on a side note : i can physically see 4 of their buildings in the city centre while i lie on my bed in my bedroom.. so now you can guess where i live)
5. debt over affordability level. Did you listen to any of the podcasts or looks at AFS? What is a fair affordability level in this sector? Anyway they sold 4 and in process to sell 7 more buildings which will bring that below 40%
6. Govt social spend blah blah. This is a sovereign riet with top Bee status.. hence the leases are vital for there future..and the signings have already started. If not signed they get higher rentals but have to pay higher interest on debt as banks need to see secure tenants via signed long term leases.
7. pinky and brain dead..More insults...is that all you Gurus know as a comeback?
Now the the crucial part ..
What was the share price 4 months ago? high of about R6.60
Price now R1.80
Price overrides everything else in investing. Its your main and key indicator.Price is objective. everything else is subjective including value , nav , earnings dividend , blah blah.
Now dont you think all the points you mentioned above is priced in...Drop from R6.60 to R 1.60 low? ...Clever money sold . But whats happening now? There is a term in investing called " Attractive" and the price now is drawing attention for its attractiveness at this price. Go check volumes at R1.60/R1.80
Clever money started buying with fair volumes...Of cos its not going to shoot the lightsoff but if you buy today at R1.80 which Lionel said he did , he is more or less guaranteed a minimum 20% return on his capital in form of divi. Also if you read the trading statement and podcast i took the worst case scenario mentioned to calculate divi.. May be higher.
Going forward this to me looks like a solid buy at R1.80 or lower. i topped up nearer R1.60 last week . If all the leases are singed , why should it not go back to R6.60 or worst case 50% of that R3.30??
Im not pumping this share , its just that i see value especially the divi which is my main attraction. Anyone else wants to invest do your own homework.Comments welcome if im wrong
PS : you cant compare this this with the Pyramid scheme. No fraud , no corruption , no firesale , brick and mortar net asset value , good dividend , etc.. It only turned into an ugly duckling because fo the Govt leases..should that correct in next 6 months why not back to highs?
Now the Gurus how are you valuing the Pyramid scheme huh? Using historical figures in your models of cos? But thats unlike Delta. Theres fraud , corruption , contingent liabilities , claims over ownership disputes , specialists fees , poor management , a company virtually on the verge of insolvency and you tell me its historical figures can be relied upon especially its nav , sales , income and debts? Get a life man...
You comparing apples with pigs here...Gurus cant see that past there noses. Their emotional bias towards this pyramid scheme is absolute investing suicide.
PS bought another 100000 on Friday while in Ozz...Will keep on adding..