Dear IN, all
IN I see you mention both R3 and R10 per share in some below posts. While I'm planning on selling at R3 - what's your opinion for R10? Best case scenario?
Based on Marks interviews on media and discussions woth institutions the predominant view to return maximal value to shareholders is to have an entity that is free of debt and where asc has full control. The belief is this structure leads to a better valuation multiple when trading or when acquired.
I am certainly comforted by the SA strategy and growth including the cleanup with opertaions and othe cost cutting initiatives coming through. I was very surprised that both ceo and cfo talked to returning money to shareholders even in the form of dividends and on the other hand concluding saying dont vote and you get zero. Media has been asleep.
Ceo and cfo were calm controled and knowldgeable. They were articulate and decisive in a very vague and difficult position. The body language choice of wording suggests their own anxieties and stresses are controled amd thwre is alot more positive in the background.
With that i have the end of April- announcement may result in a pump due to the most importamt hurdle being crossed...which is agremement between parties on the way forward. I see this as more significant than the june timeline and shareholder vote as this will guide many on the future- release fears and support valuation.
So r1.50 is the resistance for april news and we may get there before as noted with snh 2 weeks before disclosure the pump was on..leaks...
Sens on disposal refucing debt further r500m may also be announced. . This month...supporting r1.50..
Potentially a few days after april announcement we may see a pump to r2 or higher depending on what the predominant model is.
If i hedge on one model....unfortunately dispose all of europe to cover 90% of all debt and other expenses....we own all of SA assets and have debt r500m working capital and full control.if this os signed by june and presented as predominant. We could have deal wrappedup by h2 results.
Whats left would be ASC with continued support from institutions. A growth strategy focussing on additional pharma piprlines that we access from relationships with farmilida and remedica.....
This entity if i link to Andis posts...would definately command a multiple valuation.
This model would be growth and value accretive. And my modest hope is for this to be a r6 share until first dividend declared h1 2022. I initially expected first div by h2 2022- but ceo and cfo have their own share kickers and performance incentives. H1 divided even if just 10c to 30c will create renewed confidence and then r10 realiseable. By end 2022 h2. And 2023 we would see the share breach r10 if the company demsonstartes growth.....
My fear would be a acquisition consideration at r6 by dec or end h1 2022. And institutions accept that.
Share currently trading at 48c. None of our posts are buy instructions. Its an expression of my owm delusional views. And as you can see very far from 48c hence nonsensical.
