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Ascendis Health Ltd. – JSE:ASC


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#21 DeltaHedge

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Posted 07 August 2020 - 01:08 PM

It looks a bit sick today, is there any news out ?
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#22 Investment novice

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Posted 06 August 2020 - 10:52 AM

Thanks Andi. Scitec factored in and impaired tragically.
Revenue june 2020 include remedica which was not accounted for. I agree difficult to predict the ebitda. I want to hazard r1.3 - r1.5b adjusting for rand dollar depreciation

With the ebitda at this range be interesting the amounts swept to reduce debt, the change in ginancial ratios and the plan to offset some equity in remedica not the 100% stake. Also debt refinancing will be possible with clean financials and a 2020 afs as a going concern


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#23 andi222

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Posted 06 August 2020 - 09:25 AM

Hi IN,

 

It's really tough to say where EBITDA will fall. My best guess would be somewhere around 1.3 billion. However I can be considerably wrong. We will have to wait and see.

 

The latest negative I've seen is the sale of Scitec. Can't believe that they have bought this for around 200 Million € and they have sold it now for 5 Million plus keeping the negative liabilities. 

 

However this is already priced into the share. Let's wait for that first trading update and hopefully it will be very positive.


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#24 Investment novice

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Posted 05 August 2020 - 06:27 PM

I learnt today about the compounding pharmacy .
Not sure market knowldge on a number of the ascendis assets. Needless to say that SA dr have applied a functional medicine approach which includes national adoption of vitamin protocols as well as mainstream medicine to treat covid. As well as to boost immunity. Many of the hospital based treatments include iv vitamin c. Short in stock and expensive. Any guesses which company provides this....
Potentially Ascendis could do alot better with their marketing...sad that we have to learn this haphazardly.

Please can anyone advise any negatives except for debt levels

And Andi...whats your call on ebitda...i suspect 30% additional on dec 2019
As a middle road..
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#25 Investment novice

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Posted 04 August 2020 - 07:51 AM

Andi do you have the latest shareholder lists for ascendis at the end of july?


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#26 Investment novice

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Posted 03 August 2020 - 04:45 PM

Cant time this market...think its a risk benefit...do you wait out to drop another 10c and lose out upside 50c. I just buy when i have cash at the best price...
No guarantee of any price low or high...buy within the safety margin...

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#27 SB45

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Posted 03 August 2020 - 04:35 PM

I saw 77c earlier today, missed it. My buying range 80 - 90c . Do you see it going lower ? I like to take a nibble at lower prices as they won't last for long.
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#28 Investment novice

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Posted 03 August 2020 - 12:20 PM

Time to pickup ...or wait for lower levels...or hold cash for d1 of the blitz

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#29 Investment novice

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Posted 01 August 2020 - 09:25 PM

Hi. I am a pumper here. On others i posted cauation when i think a share is worrisome .

I really hope we all can make money out of this. Andi and i have been watching and buying the share for 8 months since it dipped under r1.

It had good prospects...but covid made it great prospects.


Do your own leg work...and let me know....i drove to the company and spent time watching the trucks in and out. Got to sorak to staff. Technitians etc....

I have all of my high risk funds in this single share as of friday. Expecting a update the next two weeks and full year in september.

After the market frenzy i will sell 50% and redistribute.

Dont trust me....but if you do make money donate 5 % to charity...

Many will be quiet and wont talkup...but watch the commentary once the first voluntary update comes out.

I would suggest hold cash and when the update comes out you will have a chance to get in day one....and there will be a high ride for a few days...

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#30 Blackobar

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Posted 01 August 2020 - 07:04 PM

I appreciate your response I.N. I can tell you're invested and excited about the prospects of the company, and I'm not mad at you for that. Looking at Remedica, It'd be great if they can keep Remedica. From the little digging i've done, it is a great business. But I understand the debt is huge.
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#31 Investment novice

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Posted 01 August 2020 - 11:48 AM

Love the questions. Yes to.most of them. They not only in pharmaceuticals but also in pathology which as you know requirequires reagents...all the cor tests that were done at r1000 each and now r850....labs needed conumables.
Ascendis supplies and has maintenence contacts for laborartpry equipment and hospital equipment . Their vet businees is growing. Testatment to all of this was dec 2019 figures. Covid was a gift to this company and will help undo some of the crap and losses. Extremely difficult to gies covid revenues as in one month their sales for ventillator machine ecclipsed an entire year, their ecmo equipment high end really expensive and high flow oxygen etc....all of their lines has seen massive pump during covid. I would hazatd at least r1 b in debt coming off.
Post covid world....many countries are gping to require increased medication and respiratory care products in the recovery phase. This is for majority of the patiemts even mild as this disease has caused some long term issues.
Regarding competition, this company cant compete with aspen but has a footprint in 100 countries at 80c a share.
With the cash available and a potential sale on the cards for remedica which may not be required....this company is certainly with at least 1 euro, hence as of yesterday i have exited steinhof and transferred to ascendis to ride the next 6 months....remember this is also a rand hedge.
I have speaking to medical persons about the share and there is alot of excitement especially feom those using ascendis meds
Final.comment. chloroquine and potentially another 15 lines of drugs have been used for covid care and support....ascendis and remedica have been pumping these. The research may now not be in favour but the sales are booked
Sounds like a rant...but i cant begin to tell tou how excited i am about this cmpany
Andi may advise..

Really looking for anyone to throw negatives....or demonstrate that thos company should not at a minimum be at r12.

Following scenarios play out

1. R1 billion in debt paid end july
2 Remedica sold for 350 million euro
3. 300 million uero debt secured at 1 % interest rate
4. Entire ascendis shares acquired for r10 a share...

All or any of these are plausible without covid.

Cummon Andi....waiting for you high level
I think we in a 20 to 100 % ebitda growth



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#32 Blackobar

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Posted 01 August 2020 - 01:42 AM

Covid-19 aside, does Ascendis have what it takes to compete with other players in the sector they're in.(After they've sorted out the debt mess of course). Do they have products in demand that can take them back to where they were a couple of years back.(I.e : Aspen HAD the milk formula business)


I'm honestly posing these questions to get more information about them & their products, outside the "pandemic linked remedies"
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#33 Investment novice

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Posted 31 July 2020 - 04:29 PM

Chloroquine seems like some final big trails come in now where there is linited support. Ascendis and companies had 4 to t months of great sale on a number of drugs but the pipelines for chloroquine will start to taper off.. not sure about ysa and other markets. Kodak has massive spikes ins hare price due to chloroquine production , media articles this


Really looking forward to a closing period update as was received in feb ahrad of march news. We could see something come in next week or so predating september especially if there is a more than 20 % swing. Thinking of exiting all my high risk , to pool all in here.....

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#34 Investment novice

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 03:41 PM

Andi thanks for the heads up on the calender. An analyst said to lookout for a sens from aspen and ascendis on ivermectin. As was the case with chloroquine.
I posted on some of the media articles. Seems a sens is due also as we received for dexamethasone.
There is lots of energy in the share today compare to last week.... Keep an eye out...

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#35 Investment novice

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 03:09 PM

Bought a lovely dip in ascendis just now...

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#36 Investment novice

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 02:05 PM

Expect shares to be pressured until then. May see lows.. Or stay between 80-90.

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#37 andi222

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 01:58 PM

I don't expect a trading statement till early Sept at least. A COVID update would be awesome. See previous years' release dates using calendar year (for FY results) … 

 

2019
Results - 30 Oct, Trading statement - 22 Oct

 

2018
Results - 25 Sep, Trading statement - 7 Sep

 

2017
Results - 12 Sep, Trading statement - 24 Aug

 

2016
Results - 14 Sep, Trading statement - 7 Sep

 

I contacted investor relations and they have mentioned that they are expecting to publish results in September. Also they wont release an additional COVID update before the results as they have mentioned in their last COVID statement they have issued is still highly relevant. Also they will only inform the market post results regarding any possible further disposals of any business units.

 

So for now its a waiting game. I will pick up shares as we go as I personally see great potential here. 


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#38 Shi

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 11:22 AM

IN when are you expecting a trading statement or a COVID update? I mean close to a month has now past after their year end.

 

I don't expect a trading statement till early Sept at least. A COVID update would be awesome. See previous years' release dates using calendar year (for FY results) … 

 

2019
Results - 30 Oct, Trading statement - 22 Oct

 

2018
Results - 25 Sep, Trading statement - 7 Sep

 

2017
Results - 12 Sep, Trading statement - 24 Aug

 

2016
Results - 14 Sep, Trading statement - 7 Sep


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#39 Investment novice

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Posted 27 July 2020 - 07:30 AM

Ivermectin wonder drug reduces corona virus infection by 40%????
Stupid question... Does ascendis have Ivermectin available through remedica and ascendis pharma IN SA.

Weird that we have not seen the 1000% increase in this share price as yet

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#40 Investment novice

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Posted 25 July 2020 - 08:16 AM

Andi not sure why there has been no announcement on beta interferon therapy availability at remedica.
They have a long line of these drugs available which they have used for multiple sclerosis and other patients.

Think they currently evaluating the conversion to aerolised and or potential supplier or production agreements to meet global demand.

Hope we get a sens out soon on this. Which is not yet covered elsewhere.

Just so the reader is clear. I have a massive holding of this share. Buying weekly as cash avails.

Reasons
1. Non covid revenue.. Happy with Dec 2019 financials talks to long term sustainability and value
2. Covid revenue... This is a gift to reduce debt by 25% but also refinance debt at min percentiles
3. Disposal or partial disposal of remedica.
4. Current valuation discounted significnatly
5. Upside valuation for September at R12 per share


6...final reason......we have not seen the worse of covid... Has resulted in massive spike for vitamins and other meds... All of which will boost sales on going... Hence this is an extremely cheap company and at this price is both a growth and dividend play


Please need someone to disagree with me....



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