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Ascendis Health Ltd. – JSE:ASC


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#21 David-89

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 12:07 PM

Share price very volatile today...now up to 64 cents with no new market information. I’m really not enjoying investing in a market which is so unpredictable and doesn’t seem to follow basic fundamentals.
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#22 DeltaHedge

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 11:42 AM

I think our timing is off hey....we should be buying share now rather than two months back....water under the bridge....
My thoughts.....next week ceo probably going to spin the following to.insitititional investors...

1. Remedica prepared for sale to target 500m
2. With ebitda and cash flow, post transaction buy back of shares to help reverse impact of some of the margin calls.2021
3. 2022 start to pay dividends and target a stable dividend policy.
4. 2021 to 2022 optimise and push growth of all entities into existing and new markets cross pollinating....



Does that sound like a story line or not.....i like it....now to time when to buy more shares.......

 

Acendis in Volatility auction?


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#23 Investment novice

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Posted 02 October 2020 - 09:43 AM

I think our timing is off hey....we should be buying share now rather than two months back....water under the bridge....
My thoughts.....next week ceo probably going to spin the following to.insitititional investors...

1. Remedica prepared for sale to target 500m
2. With ebitda and cash flow, post transaction buy back of shares to help reverse impact of some of the margin calls.2021
3. 2022 start to pay dividends and target a stable dividend policy.
4. 2021 to 2022 optimise and push growth of all entities into existing and new markets cross pollinating....



Does that sound like a story line or not.....i like it....now to time when to buy more shares.......
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#24 Investment novice

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Posted 01 October 2020 - 05:20 PM

Ascendis already has their acting cfo in place. Business continuity in play. They steaming forward. Don't write them off. 3 months...best guess to see a sens hope sooner, then Feb a trading update for h1....
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#25 DeltaHedge

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Posted 01 October 2020 - 04:39 PM

Delta, being the not so proud owner of both at this stage if you gave it to me I would take the wife out for dinner and put the rest under my pillow. At least I would have gotten a meal from it and still have something left over.

 

But I would currently go for ASC as I think they have a more secure plan and asset in Remedica to sell to get rid of debt and currently no know legal issues. My 1c worth.

 

haha I hear ya. Also in them both. Will be a great story if we end up making money on them both. If not, life goes on


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#26 Investment novice

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Posted 01 October 2020 - 09:36 AM

So if I gave you a bar to invest immediately in SNH or ASC (cannot be both) , what would you choose? Investment horizon is irrelevant in this case.



Wait a day or so and buy asc ,, three months horizon for the share to remind its value. And then 2021 to consolidate. By Feb you will have h1 financials with clear sense of debt to equity and market will find the r2 to r4.

Sell 20% of profit and add to snh ...as part of high risk portfolio
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#27 JR7800

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Posted 01 October 2020 - 09:04 AM

So if I gave you a bar to invest immediately in SNH or ASC (cannot be both) , what would you choose?  Investment horizon is irrelevant in this case

Delta, being the not so proud owner of both at this stage if you gave it to me I would take the wife out for dinner and put the rest under my pillow. At least I would have gotten a meal from it and still have something left over.

 

But I would currently go for ASC as I think they have a more secure plan and asset in Remedica to sell to get rid of debt and currently no know legal issues. My 1c worth.


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#28 DeltaHedge

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Posted 01 October 2020 - 08:52 AM

High debt to equity, but asc no legal issues, and share value turnaround window is shorter 3 months, and asc has large insitutional backing.


2 different beasts

 

So if I gave you a bar to invest immediately in SNH or ASC (cannot be both) , what would you choose?  Investment horizon is irrelevant in this case.


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#29 Investment novice

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Posted 01 October 2020 - 08:39 AM

High debt to equity, but asc no legal issues, and share value turnaround window is shorter 3 months, and asc has large insitutional backing.


2 different beasts
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#30 DeltaHedge

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Posted 01 October 2020 - 07:49 AM

Sounds like SNH and ascendis share some common traits
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#31 Investment novice

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 09:55 PM

Share price slide due to the auditors concern on the financial risk and their concern that the entity will continue as a going concern.
Hence we can see continued instability in the share until it levels off, or until remedica sale is finalized.
Just read full auditors report. Which is in keeping woth the auditors responsibility.
To Andis point and the media , will see massive flip once there is financial stability which then unlocks the share value. For now and until we get remedica sale hint....either look away, sell and re enter , or by more.....extremely painful to see tue price where it is but this is temporary
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#32 Milo

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 06:50 PM

https://www.news24.c...growth-20200930

 

Good article to show that remaining business do have a future and that the company will be strong going forward if the sale of Remedica.

 

I'm gonna hold strong and topping up as we go.

Good article

They must let the market know that selling Remedica will wipe out the debt so the share price can recover sooner.


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#33 andi222

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 05:57 PM

https://www.news24.c...growth-20200930

 

Good article to show that remaining business do have a future and that the company will be strong going forward if the sale of Remedica.

 

I'm gonna hold strong and topping up as we go.


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#34 andi222

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 05:42 PM

Had some time to look at financials.

Worrying points:

-Debt is still massive at 6.8 Billion Rands with close to 860 Million interest

-Another loss generated

-Reduced equity

-massive going concern note with a lot of “ifs”

 

Positives:

-EBITDA of 1.15 Billion

-Cash generated from operations increased to 750 Million

- Repayment of borrowings of roughly 1.1 billion.

- All operating units have generated a positive EBITDA except for Pharma Africa

 

Going forward:

What is left after selling Remedica:

  • EBITDA would reduce to 400 Million Rands. Remaining units are able to generate this.
  • However Interest would also reduce to basically zero.
  • According to Bloomberg the company said they want between 400 and 500 Million $ for Remedica. This is around 7.5 Billion rands. This would remove basically all debt from the balance sheet. In addition a huge once off gain will hit P/L as the current NAV of Remedica sits at 4.5 Billion. So 3 Billion fresh equity.
  • So given the EBITDA and no debt a multiple of 10 gives us a value of around 4 Billion in my view of the remaining business which will be debt free basically.
  • Equity would sit at around 4.3 Billion after the transaction.

So most critical point going forward is the sale of Remedica. But also we need to obtain those 450 Million $. Otherwise there will be bigger issues.

Again this is just my personal view and no recommendation on buying or selling any ASC shares.

 

Creditors also believe there is hope otherwise they would have pulled the trigger long ago and would have not extended the debt facilities to end of 2021


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#35 Investment novice

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 05:17 PM

I know tou think I am on some crazy meds....but think about this. Adcock share price in decline and fails to break r50 and remain robust. The price now under r40 with a downtrend. They have low levels of debt. Very low share volume , revenues and ebitda growth marginal and have home grown competitors. They could easily acquire all the ebitda growth and their competitor in Sa.and generate efficiencies. They could do so for 1 share for every 20 ascendis...pricing acsendis at r2......take all the debt and tax benefits.a share issue could help generate capital and the more solid company could easily access euro debt cheaper.


Why not....if we getting rid of remedica who better than a SA company...to benefit...and at ascendis current trading levels....they are beyond cheap.....


Time will tell...my r2 marker is still there...if not more.
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#36 Investment novice

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 04:51 PM

Credibility I.N. You don't just do this and get away Scot-free, your cred gets shot. It doesn't matter if the error was at the auditors, management takes all the heat.



Absolutely. But these are complex times and indicative of the cfos weakness. Great that he is departing.fluttering with financials.


Some nice articles coming through, xommon theme about sale of remedica , sobering that this represents 30 percent of revenue, not sure if I end that correctly from media and a significnat portion of ebitda.

The takehome is that there is still a very valuable business which remains which will be debt free and compete with adcock and others hence I think now may be an opportune time for sa companies to sweep in and take over the whole of ascendis debt and equity......not sure qhy this would not be a play... did not have a chance to pose questions but the following would have been my question

1. Would ascendis look to a merger or full on sale? As a distressed asset surely would pass competition commission and get the approval.and at the current share price setup to acquire and strip


Looking forward to the remainder of the year and drowning the pain of the share price collapse
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#37 Dell

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 04:39 PM

corrective SENS issued - only cashflow item reclassified - no impact on net cashflow or other figures if I read it correctly...


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#38 Scalptrader

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 04:33 PM

Cancelation of statement, complexity of reporting.
....trust revision is beneficial

what is the possibility that remedica has finally been sold in last 24 hours and AFS needs to be changed accordingly to show it as such?

 

or

 

merely subsidiary deconsolidated and show as asset for resale under current assets?   More likely..

 

Remote right?


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#39 Blackobar

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 03:58 PM

Cancelation of statement, complexity of reporting.
....trust revision is beneficial


Credibility I.N. You don't just do this and get away Scot-free, your cred gets shot. It doesn't matter if the error was at the auditors, management takes all the heat.
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#40 Investment novice

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 03:57 PM

There was a technical delay, could be about some accounting rule or descriptor that needed clarifying. As the company is held legally to what they publish erros must be corrected. However I am guessing here.

Hope that the change is not material. As we see it looks like worse case already.perhaps some change gives us an improved position which may explain the buy appetite we have seen.

Its anyone's guess as to what was miss stated .
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