1645 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

Volumes drying up. I am going to try buy as many as I can get when available... Expecting this to be th best performing share IN SA this year when results published and first clean afs.

If you have not found a negative reasons... Jump on board now... The early gains spectacular..
Not to say you can't get on at r3 or r6 or r9...

Not an expert... I am an official pumper of this share......



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[Investment novice]

Think someone at ascend created covid 19?

Another reason to cheer. Including the partnership between ascendis and Israel.

Fenofibrate can 'downgrade' Covid-19 threat to common cold level: Researcher



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[Investment novice]

Thanks Andi. The risks are managed so to speak. Does the market require more comfort? Some further debt reduction following the full year results. Re financing debt with cheap European debt.. Sale now possible due to the revenue generating ability of remedica but then why would they sell if cost of debt close to zero.

Awaiting sens I gather to guide us further.
Company has both covid and non covid revenue..... And really hope that we can get debt reduced and debt refinanced,

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[andi222]

Hi IN,

 

so the following was worrisome for this share which negatively took down the share price:

 

- Huge debt load and if lenders pulled the plug the company would have entered business rescue proceedings. However now we know they have time to fix the balance sheet until 2021 due to debt extension

- Remedica sale was cancelled which caused the share price to drop from 3 rands to 1 rand within like 2 weeks. However now that they have time they can obtain a much higher price for this business which is producing huge profits. Also the money spend on getting the sale done is not totally lost as they now are looking for new potential buyers. Made no sense that the share price dropped by R2 as there was basically no impact on the ASC business

- The tangible NAV is negative - However if they can achieve a sales price of between 300 and 400 Million for Remedica there will be a huge profit.

- Margin calls - I think C2C has sold off most of its shares now so I don't see any margin calls anytime soon again.

- Scitec was purchased at a way ridiculous price. Nearly burned 200 Million € of shareholders money. But this business unit is gone now and won't provide further losses.

 

All these things have been cleared now, so I do believe there is great upside potential to this share. Again just my personal opinion.

[Investment novice]

Tried to get in a large buy yesterday. Liquidity drying up. Seems like the volume is not available cheap.

Is there a cup and handle?

Have seen the chatter increase on various Google sites. Lots of eyes here and many convinced this share will go to the moon. Should this share be at R12?


Last question.... Am I delusional. Really not relying a pump or dump... But the numbers don't make sense. And the value currently may be due to debt but significant declines due to margin calls.

If there is anyone that can argue this is really a worthless share please can you guide us. Ingram many years ago was extremely bullish... What am I missing...


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[Investment novice]

Seems remedica and ascendis have stability of revenue and products out of covid alenvironment as well as now in boom in covid. Since covid is here to stay... And similar illnesses. Bodes well.

We should expect information today on interferon beta, remedica has a number of these products for use for multiple sclerosis. Another reason for excitement. Sure they could make this available through injection or other route inhalation...

Andi agree... Should see a sens out soon on trading update.. Hope the don't supper excitement.


Let's keep a look out.... Piling in cash becomes available



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[Investment novice]

Also can you do an adjusted PE... Based on current share price to projected earnings.
Then multiply by market multiple and add any discounts

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[Investment novice]

Andi can't recall your predictions on ebitda and nav

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[andi222]

Nope can come at any point in time if management is certain that profits are higher than 20% to corresponding prior period.

 

Annual results are due latest by end of September 2020. However I hope they will be released earlier. 

 

The share price is already starting to pump. Watch out for the next few weeks.

[Investment novice]

There is significant time to get on board the real pump will be the day of the trading sens and the entire two weeks thereafter. I think we have time to get more shares for the next 6-8 weeks... Anyone know when the trading update is due?

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[andi222]

Chart wise this looks really good. Let's see where it can go. Watch out for that trading statement soon. 

[Investment novice]

Check the nyse... High use health stocks outpacing tesla.

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[Investment novice]

Does this mean there was a financial transaction... And revenue banked


Remedica has successfully managed the import of 5 tons of chloroquine to Cyprus, facilitated by the government of Israel, which provided a military plane for the transportation of the substance from India.
The private initiative involves the Cypriot pharmaceutical company processing the chloroquine for subsequent transportation to Israel. In exchange, Israel will provide Cyprus with 50 ventilators.


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[Investment novice]

I think that covid has been extremely beneficial for this entity and will result in massive debt recoup.
However with the footprint and assets this company should do well in any environment. The low trading multiple is crazy. The share price is low due to to margin calls and lack of market knowldge or trust.
This will change with the June 2020 financials.

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[andi222]

The share price has been trading above the MA 100 line since beginning of June, Bollinger Bands range is very small thus I'm expecting a breakout soon. 

[andi222]

If there is a vaccine soon one company alone won’t be able to manufacture billions of vaccines. They will need the help of other companies like Ascendis to help with the manufacturing I think.

 

 

“The company is actually quite well-positioned for the Covid situation, given that it manufactures many of the molecules that perhaps are going to be used in a vaccine”

 

Agreed Milo, it could lead to hundreds of millions of extra revenue and profits. I still don't understand why the market cap of this company is sitting at around 21 Million €. In my opinion the most undervalued share currently on the JSE according to my calcs. But I guess time will tell. 

[Milo]

If there is a vaccine soon one company alone won’t be able to manufacture billions of vaccines. They will need the help of other companies like Ascendis to help with the manufacturing I think.

 

 

“The company is actually quite well-positioned for the Covid situation, given that it manufactures many of the molecules that perhaps are going to be used in a vaccine”

[Investment novice]

This is my high risk high value dividend play. After this share quadruoples I will exit all of my original capital and retain the multiple WITH Gods help. I expect ascendis to pay dividends by 2022 and the quantum in two years expecting at least 50c per share... Hence getting more volume now sets me for a value and a dividend jackpot.

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[andi222]

Andi as per yesterday.... There is excitement around this share as a number of lines of business has really been pumping. Rcs... Respiratory care owned by ascendis mentioned in the previous sens earlier in the year will shoot the lights out. They have had spectacular sales in SA and Africa. Not sure if they sold to other countries remedica is in. Their high flow nasal can ilar. Ventilator and concentrators. As well as monitoring equipment have had massive demand. They have done massive private deals as well as to many just hoarding this in their homes. Margins on these items north of 40% without secondary service costs etc. Consumables etc....
I would hazard that ascendis won't sell remedica. If anything they may settle r1b with cash generated from 2020....considering the Rand euro exchange there is massive upside there.
May also refinance remainder. Nit sure if they would do a 20% sale in remedica for another 100euro million. May not need to.

I picked up another lots of shares here. I have this share as r12 by end october

I am smoking something yes.

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yeah agreed, I'm waiting for that first SENS giving us a trading update on the full year. Will also be interesting to see where net debt is lying. 

 

I think a very good option would also maybe be to IPO part of the remedica as a business and ASC retains control of the business. This would enable ASC to repay most of its debt and they would benefit of Remedicas future returns. I can see great potential for this business especially due to COVID. 

 

IN I have also been picking up shares as we talk. After my analysis there is great potential here. 

 

Yes management has mismanaged this company badly in the past and people have lost huge amounts of cash. However at the current share price and the underlying businesses still present in the group I see great potential in the short to medium term of this company. Even worst case the company will survive till end of 2021 due to their debt restructure. In the next 12 to 15 months I think a price range between 6 to 8 rands is reasonable. Thats my best guess. 

 

Again this is just my personal opinion and calculations are based on my best knowledge. No recommendation to buy or sell ASC shares. 

[Investment novice]

Andi as per yesterday.... There is excitement around this share as a number of lines of business has really been pumping. Rcs... Respiratory care owned by ascendis mentioned in the previous sens earlier in the year will shoot the lights out. They have had spectacular sales in SA and Africa. Not sure if they sold to other countries remedica is in. Their high flow nasal can ilar. Ventilator and concentrators. As well as monitoring equipment have had massive demand. They have done massive private deals as well as to many just hoarding this in their homes. Margins on these items north of 40% without secondary service costs etc. Consumables etc....
I would hazard that ascendis won't sell remedica. If anything they may settle r1b with cash generated from 2020....considering the Rand euro exchange there is massive upside there.
May also refinance remainder. Nit sure if they would do a 20% sale in remedica for another 100euro million. May not need to.

I picked up another lots of shares here. I have this share as r12 by end october

I am smoking something yes.

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