1645 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

Okay thanks Andi. Ascendis were investigating options, aside from a remedica sale. Do you have any idea what that is. I agree with you that we may expect some surprise shortly and a guide on the journey.
I will try do some digging. Quite keen to see their SA numbers for Jan to June. Expect 20% plus increase in revenue and operating ebitda.




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[andi222]

Andi what's the impact of selling the loss leader at a loss.... Sports nutrition.
Are there any other further impairments.
Whats the restructuring costs once off. Year on year dificlt to tell.. Will make a thmbsuck guess... After your reply..

Thanks.

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Hi IN, 

Last year they have written down all Goodwill and Intangibles in Scitec (Around 2.6 billion), as at 31 December the NAV of Scitec was -3.066 billion.

The sale now will give them 100 million Rands. Sad part tho is that Ascendis will keep a negative NAV in the carve out entities of 3.238 billion rand.

So the actual P/L impact will be around 25 Million profit for Ascendis business. However they will retain the negative 3.238 billions on the books. 

 

I'm not convinced of this deal because they have bought the business for 170 Million € a few years ago and now sell it for 5€ million euro and they have to keep 160 Million € of liabilities. 

Let me put it in other words, the old management has basically burned share holders money back in the days. 

 

At least the Remedica business should cover this negative NAV.

[Investment novice]

Andi what's the impact of selling the loss leader at a loss.... Sports nutrition.
Are there any other further impairments.
Whats the restructuring costs once off. Year on year dificlt to tell.. Will make a thmbsuck guess... After your reply..

Thanks.

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[andi222]

HI Andi. I saw this headline some time back but thought afterwards it could be fake news.. As the debt has been restru tired and there is not pressure for a sale. We also no that such a media headline will immediately be followed up with a sens.



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I think their long term goal is still to dispose of Remedica, I mean if they can get between 250 and 300 Million € for it that would be fantastic. I also think they will not try to force a deal as Remedica is generating large profits and currently no need for ASC to repay any debt. 

 

I wonder when that first trading statement will be released for the June 2020 year end. Where do you guys see the EBITDA for the full year?

[Investment novice]

HI Andi. I saw this headline some time back but thought afterwards it could be fake news.. As the debt has been restru tired and there is not pressure for a sale. We also no that such a media headline will immediately be followed up with a sens.



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[andi222]

The business will be healthy and completely debt-free.

 

Agreed, Remedica generates around 25% of the total sales of Ascendis and around 45% of total EBITDA. The total NAV of Remedica is around 3.5 billion. Given the strong growth and strong EBITDA of around 600 Million, Remeidica should easily be valued at around 6 billion rand or 300 Million €. If they can get this ASC will be debt free.

 

The total debt of ASC is around 5 billion rands. If ASC could generate around 300 Million € for Remedica the remaining business will be debt free and will still have an EBITDA of 600 Million Rands. Applying an EBITDA of 8 which is very conservative the remaining business of ASC should be valued at around 4.8 Billion rands nearly debt free. Currently we have a market cap of 420 Million . . . . That's ridiculous. 

 

Guys I think there will be some big surprises for us coming our way. 

 

Again this is my own opinion and no recommendation to trade in ASC shares.

Edited by andi222, 08 July 2020 - 02:16 PM.

[Milo]

The business will be healthy and completely debt-free.

 

 

[andi222]

https://www.agenceec...priote-remedica

 

Translated:

The South African Ascendis Health will finally sell its Cypriot subsidiary Remedica

(Ecofin Agency) - The South African pharmaceutical company Ascendis Health has resolved to put its Cypriot subsidiary Remedica back on the market after having given up on it a few months ago. A close due date on one of his debts and the lack of an alternative are behind this decision.

The South African Ascendis Health has put back on the table its plan to sell its Remedica subsidiary based in Cyprus, we learned from sources close to the file.

The sums mobilized within the framework of this initiative will enable it to honor debts which will reach maturity in the short term. The pharmaceutical group has already recruited a financial adviser (Jefferies Financial) to support it in this process.

The plan to sell this subsidiary, which generates the most revenue in its pharmacy segment, has seen several twists and turns. In December 2019, it was decided that the sale of Remedica would be suspended because the company was unable to reach an agreement with the potential buyer of the moment. The challenge is that it also carries a large debt that weighs on the balance sheet of Ascendis Health.

The debt of the South African company has become sufficiently large. Overall, the total of its assets can cover its liabilities. As of December 31, 2019, however, current liabilities, i.e. short-term debt, exceeded current assets by almost 3.6 billion rand. Likewise, Ascendis' debt taken in dollars ($ 335.1 million) greatly exceeded its market capitalization ($ 26 million).

The outcome of this initiative to sell Remedica will be followed by Ascendis investors, including the investment bank SIX Group, which itself has shareholders in its capital like the Swiss bank UBS AG. The news currently seems to have been well received by the market. Ascendis shares rose 7.4% on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. It was its biggest gain in a single session since June 8, 2020.

 

Due to COVID they might now receive the offer they want. Watch out for news soon.

[Sleepwa123]

https://www.remedica...emedica-israel/

[Investment novice]

They selling in massive loads with a number of other lines, vitamins, equipment... Etc...to 100s of countries... There is an announcement of the remedica site already sometime back where they sold loads to Israel.


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[Milo]

Hope they allowed to sell it and not giving it away for free as part of corporate social responsibility.

[Investment novice]

No matter what we think the world has been buying this drug and stock piling it


Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro says he has tested positive for COVID-19.
The politician - who has previously dismissed the disease as a "little flu" - said he began feeling unwell on Sunday but insists his condition has improved since having treatment.
He said he is taking the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin


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[Investment novice]

And again another reason for super profits......... Israel has bought large stockpiles from remedica.
So keen to see the results from end June.
Andi your thoughts...... This share should have already been north of r6 based on restructuring...... This is going to be the best performing share across many markets.......

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[Investment novice]



COVID-19

JULY 6, 2020

Hydroxychloroquine found to significantly reduce mortality in new COVID-19 study

According to a large-scale retrospective analysis published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, treatment with hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with  azithromycin was associated with a significant reduction in mortality among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in a strictly monitored protocol-driven in-hospital setting.
“The benefits of hydroxychloroquine in our cohort as compared to previous studies may be related to its use early in the disease course with standardized, and safe dosing, inclusion criteria, comorbidities, or larger cohort,” Samia Arshad, Henry Ford Hospital, Detroit, Michigan, and colleagues wrote.


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[Investment novice]

Expect a pump here. Remedica back on the market valuation north of 400m usd
Could be a play to take the whole of ascendis.. Not just remedica.


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[Investment novice]

Most of the stock is going to stronger currencies and to private sector. Nice volumes.... Great Rand hedge. And massive demand for scientific group products.
Andi.. Thanks for updating on ownership... Interesting late day surge.

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[nosh]

Great dependence on ascendis and aspen production as Gauteng faces massive demand for healthcare. It's sad that these companies are making stupid profits at a time of great misery

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it is sad . But am sure govt will negotiate prices down - one of the articles alluded to that

[andi222]

Hi IN, yeah agreed. Interesting to also note that Old mutual and other big investors have topped up on shares the last month.

https://www.mornings...e/asc/ownership

[Investment novice]

HI Andi. The market is waiting to see some concrete numbers. Remember this share was hammered by margin calls. Still has a number of big investors.
Use the time to load up on your share volume.

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[andi222]

I don't understand why the share price is so low. I mean they have secured their loans until end of 2021. So they will survive till then.

 

At the moment they will most probably have way higher sales due to COVID-19 and people stocking up on supplements etc. 

 

A sale announcement can come at any point in time now which will have a material impact on the share price.

Also waiting for the announcement regarding the new CFO.

 

Share was also trading above the MA100 for a few days now, got a few more shares this week.