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Ascendis Health Ltd. – JSE:ASC


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#1481 Spell Jammer

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 04:13 PM

I think the market overreacted badly on this one. It shot up by basically 200% in a week. I think market will realize that the additional revenue will not offset the decline in the other revenue segments.

 

As long as the debt portion is not solved I cannot see huge increases in near future. 

 

Don'T get me wrong, I still think this share has great potential. But for now I'm only re-entering at around 60 cents. 

Steadily climbing back up. Pretty much everything is down on the JSE today.


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Posted 15 April 2020 - 03:39 PM

Hi Andi. That was the point. I think if this goes to 60c....i am selling my house to load here... After the research... I think that this is an extremely hot share. They will delist themselves to extract value. Or a definate acquisition... This entity is cheap......

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#1483 andi222

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 02:57 PM

I think the market overreacted badly on this one. It shot up by basically 200% in a week. I think market will realize that the additional revenue will not offset the decline in the other revenue segments.

 

As long as the debt portion is not solved I cannot see huge increases in near future. 

 

Don'T get me wrong, I still think this share has great potential. But for now I'm only re-entering at around 60 cents. 


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#1484 Investment novice

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 01:43 PM

Looks like pump and now dump......if you bought. Ride this one...

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 11:34 AM

Be good to see what projections Andi can put together.

Trading flat low volumes... Nice hesitancy..... Will see a nice afternoon pump....

This is a share you buy and look away... Set your price alert at r6

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#1486 Pilotpilot

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 10:57 AM

So here goes waiting on the evidence and literature... But there are many many many articles already posted which suggested that there is definately a role for chloroquine. The question is around dosages and when do you utilize it. There is anecdotal information coming from South Africa cases where drs started this early and are less willing to ventilate providing a more conservative approach and better outcomes. Ventilator use and late treatment with chloroquine is not advised.

The use of chloroquin is supported thus far in various countries, still being studied which will take 6 or more months. Everyone using it for the following :

1. Early diagnosis and fear of converting to symptomatic. Not supported but demand is rife.
2. For treatment where hospitalization not required. This seems to be where big big big volume is driving demand
3. Hospital admissions and here it is included in all countries regimes
4. Late stage. Not certain.
5. Health workers using it on a different regime not treatment.. For prevention. Having the drug in the system helps prevent the infection apparently. This is also across the board many countries.
6. When exposed. Similar to hiv.. If you came into contact you immediately use the chloroquine or hydroversion. Driving demand

The experts thus advise me personally.. Not you... Just sharing what I have been told. There is insufficient hard evidence but the experts say that is just to cover drs with errors. They say the fact that all drs and nurses have started using this speaks volumes. They also say the disease process is poorly understood and that chloroquine may or may not target the virus but interestingly it opens the door to zinc which is part of treatment and probably will be combined with new chloroquine preparations. Hence even if its not used as primary drug there is certainly a room for using this drug.

Now the investment case. I am going to invest a large chunk of my free cash to pump this share. I am comfortable with my research. This company is highly geared but I believe the asset value is now significantly more than we all think which explains the 400% growth. The share should be trading at 20x multiple and this company is going to be a hot acquisition target which i see could bet at r20 a share.

Here are my reasons

1. Unprecedented demand for chloroquin proven or unproven everyone wants the drug and very limited companies can produce. Asc can easily leverage this
2. Apart from this experts advise as reported by media, asc holds a basket of other drugs that are second line and hence thelis too ahs not been accounted for.
3. Asc has a range of vital products. I visited dischem to see the range. And the shelves were bare. Found a few. Including zinc, vit E, vit a and a number. These otc have cleared the shelf and dischem advises stocks in soon. The markup on otcs historically are horrendously crazy 40 or 50 or even 300%. This has not been factored. I mentioned asc have not been truthful. I think they actually downplayed the significance.
4. The ecmo products and ventilator products have flown off the shelf as hospitals stockpile. Many sa to be produced are for expansion and won't compete in this market. However the experts who I have spoke to said they cannot understand the profit on ecmo, usually low utilized and expansive high margins, but with covid icu patients this is critical with getting oxygen in the blood especially now when clinical experts requesting less ventilation or lower pressures. This should in itself be a gold mine product
5. Lastly... Asc mentioned a reduction of surgery, but this is not significant as the delay and backlog are no causing surgical pressures.. So this is delayed sales and revenue rather than lost revenue


I was absolutely gobsmacked with the conversation. Sounds plausible. Fortunately I have lost and gained on this share. But as today will commit to buy 400000 shares or less or more depending on the price I can score it at.
I will use every subsequent day to try get more.

Hoping that this share should be easily r3`. Sort maybe r6, perhaps if I follow experts they reckon a aggressive acquition at r20 and taking the debt. And this may be only for remedica.
Based on the prices the company may also elect to reward shareholders and lock in r20 and delist....

Please don't accuse me of pumping. Or dumping. Or falsifying. I committed to conversing and feeding back. You may engage your financial experts.. I engaged clinical experts. I am not a financial or clinical expert in all these matters. It is my research to motivate the way forward. Praying that all of us can make some money. To comfort some losses.




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 Thanks IN for your input and effort....much appreciated. This company has everything going for it and it will surely reach those levels. 

 

I don't know if it has been mentioned before, but Remedica's earnings was not included in the last financial statements, as it was in the process of being sold. They showed a 30% increase in earnings and that section of the business should have increased in value by at least 30%. Add another 30% for weakening of the rand.....and another huge increase in their NAV and earnings.

 

Glad you got your holdings at a good level.... ;)


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#1487 Investment novice

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 10:01 AM

Got my shares. Done

Wanted to add. The team is pike to new very little about asc rapid test for covid. But explained this could be a game changer allowing factories, hospitals, mines, and layperson.... Any potential to purchase the test and no with probability whether they are positive or not. The application is wide for screening all patients entering any facility or companies in occ health. Asc mentioned there is some exciting stuff... I think this is it. Experts could not accurately comment.

Let's see what asc says... May or may not succeed.. But couple this with items below.. Just does not make sense for the current share price... I would hazard a guess from all of you what this could be... The proof will be in the pudding but enough here to warrant a steady or frantically crazi joyride.

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 09:48 AM

So here goes waiting on the evidence and literature... But there are many many many articles already posted which suggested that there is definately a role for chloroquine. The question is around dosages and when do you utilize it. There is anecdotal information coming from South Africa cases where drs started this early and are less willing to ventilate providing a more conservative approach and better outcomes. Ventilator use and late treatment with chloroquine is not advised.

The use of chloroquin is supported thus far in various countries, still being studied which will take 6 or more months. Everyone using it for the following :

1. Early diagnosis and fear of converting to symptomatic. Not supported but demand is rife.
2. For treatment where hospitalization not required. This seems to be where big big big volume is driving demand
3. Hospital admissions and here it is included in all countries regimes
4. Late stage. Not certain.
5. Health workers using it on a different regime not treatment.. For prevention. Having the drug in the system helps prevent the infection apparently. This is also across the board many countries.
6. When exposed. Similar to hiv.. If you came into contact you immediately use the chloroquine or hydroversion. Driving demand

The experts thus advise me personally.. Not you... Just sharing what I have been told. There is insufficient hard evidence but the experts say that is just to cover drs with errors. They say the fact that all drs and nurses have started using this speaks volumes. They also say the disease process is poorly understood and that chloroquine may or may not target the virus but interestingly it opens the door to zinc which is part of treatment and probably will be combined with new chloroquine preparations. Hence even if its not used as primary drug there is certainly a room for using this drug.

Now the investment case. I am going to invest a large chunk of my free cash to pump this share. I am comfortable with my research. This company is highly geared but I believe the asset value is now significantly more than we all think which explains the 400% growth. The share should be trading at 20x multiple and this company is going to be a hot acquisition target which i see could bet at r20 a share.

Here are my reasons

1. Unprecedented demand for chloroquin proven or unproven everyone wants the drug and very limited companies can produce. Asc can easily leverage this
2. Apart from this experts advise as reported by media, asc holds a basket of other drugs that are second line and hence thelis too ahs not been accounted for.
3. Asc has a range of vital products. I visited dischem to see the range. And the shelves were bare. Found a few. Including zinc, vit E, vit a and a number. These otc have cleared the shelf and dischem advises stocks in soon. The markup on otcs historically are horrendously crazy 40 or 50 or even 300%. This has not been factored. I mentioned asc have not been truthful. I think they actually downplayed the significance.
4. The ecmo products and ventilator products have flown off the shelf as hospitals stockpile. Many sa to be produced are for expansion and won't compete in this market. However the experts who I have spoke to said they cannot understand the profit on ecmo, usually low utilized and expansive high margins, but with covid icu patients this is critical with getting oxygen in the blood especially now when clinical experts requesting less ventilation or lower pressures. This should in itself be a gold mine product
5. Lastly... Asc mentioned a reduction of surgery, but this is not significant as the delay and backlog are no causing surgical pressures.. So this is delayed sales and revenue rather than lost revenue


I was absolutely gobsmacked with the conversation. Sounds plausible. Fortunately I have lost and gained on this share. But as today will commit to buy 400000 shares or less or more depending on the price I can score it at.
I will use every subsequent day to try get more.

Hoping that this share should be easily r3`. Sort maybe r6, perhaps if I follow experts they reckon a aggressive acquition at r20 and taking the debt. And this may be only for remedica.
Based on the prices the company may also elect to reward shareholders and lock in r20 and delist....

Please don't accuse me of pumping. Or dumping. Or falsifying. I committed to conversing and feeding back. You may engage your financial experts.. I engaged clinical experts. I am not a financial or clinical expert in all these matters. It is my research to motivate the way forward. Praying that all of us can make some money. To comfort some losses.




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#1489 Lionelza1

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 11:16 PM

Okay, from what some are saying, Brazil study was flawed due to high dosages.
Would not be too dismayed by this.
Waiting for alot more concrete guidance.
With drugs.... It's not all or nothing... It's the indications that also matter.. Try to get the info by tomorrow meet with doctors and some researchers to get a sense of the tests and the treatment.

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buy the rumour sell the fact right?, so far I haven't seen/read about factual evidence that the drug does not work... Simple reason ppl r still using it for test.

Appreciate the info. That's shared with you
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#1490 Investment novice

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 11:08 PM

Okay, from what some are saying, Brazil study was flawed due to high dosages.
Would not be too dismayed by this.
Waiting for alot more concrete guidance.
With drugs.... It's not all or nothing... It's the indications that also matter.. Try to get the info by tomorrow meet with doctors and some researchers to get a sense of the tests and the treatment.

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#1491 Lionelza1

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 09:51 PM

May see profit taking before the share sees forward momentum...
Evident massive speculation with the share passing r2. 00 dropping back 25%

Short term, until there is a further update on chloroquine end of the week and, regarding tests. There may be some further info due..... Waiting on research specifically on product pipeline..

If anyone has anything substantive...



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I see Brazil stopped use of the drug because of the concerns they've witnessed with their trials.

South Dakota will be the first state in America that will run trials using this drug... So yea let's see
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#1492 Investment novice

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 09:49 PM

May see profit taking before the share sees forward momentum...
Evident massive speculation with the share passing r2. 00 dropping back 25%

Short term, until there is a further update on chloroquine end of the week and, regarding tests. There may be some further info due..... Waiting on research specifically on product pipeline..

If anyone has anything substantive...



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#1493 Investment novice

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 02:50 PM

Have been speaking to many experts. And there is concern with tests flooding market. And with drug... Management should have guided more on the revenue streams and likely hood..

However saying that. The market lives this Share.

I have not yet exited. Still looking further.
Have a few team meetings lined. Will post tomorrow on tests and chloroquine or by end of week

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#1494 Lionelza1

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 09:22 AM

Volumes already pumping and price going positive direction..... Oh yea baby
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#1495 SB45

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 08:28 AM

Watching this company. And will exit today. Andi.. We got some nice profit..
Will reconsider when it stabilises
Management have been coy and have not fully disclosed, is a clever pump.
Worried about chloroquine. And worried that market flooded with rapid tests that have not been bought. Think enjoy the ride....


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Hi Novice, 

 

Would you shed some light on why you say management have not disclosed fully?

Agreed on the chloroquine, been reading that it creates complications and has been found to make patients worse, hence it has been stopped in Sweden and now Brazil I expect other countries to follow.  


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Posted 14 April 2020 - 07:31 AM

Watching this company. And will exit today. Andi.. We got some nice profit..
Will reconsider when it stabilises
Management have been coy and have not fully disclosed, is a clever pump.
Worried about chloroquine. And worried that market flooded with rapid tests that have not been bought. Think enjoy the ride....


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#1497 Lionelza1

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Posted 13 April 2020 - 03:19 PM

Hi Spell Jammer

Showing 368,8% growth with a target price of R6-75 in 12 months. It could still do strange things in-between, as it has a trading range from 23c to R21-56. This is the highest growth for a share from my program yet. Sasol had 220+% when it was at R23-00 with R75-00 target.

Something is definitely up with this share. Not many shares does such a large spike after a statement on the first day (140%). It did 75% (R1-05) in the first hour. Not many people got to buy this share in that first hour.

For me it's not just about the Chloroquine that they could, or could not be supplying. Although there is a big demand for it currently and the reality is that supplies are running short. People in fear, do strange things, and in the countries where Covid-19 has hit hardest, people, pharmacies and hospitals are trying to get hold of it and even stockpiling, should the need arise.

For me this report was the trigger, but the big reason is that there should be a fundamental reason for the upswing too. ASC has a Net Asset Value of R4-33/share and this was according to their Dec 2019 financials. This value and the value of the companies they wanted to sell, has now increased in value. Their NAV could probably be valued at R5-00/share as it stands at the moment. Should they show an increase in earnings for the next 2 periods, the value of R6-75 looks to be right on the money. Most shares in this sector is trading 3x NAV.

My program is not often far off with projections/valuations, but I like to check it with fundamentals as well and in this case the findings match.

Please do your own research as well before entering a trade.

Stay safe


Hi PP, thanks for sharing your views. I am excited about this one.
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#1498 Spell Jammer

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Posted 12 April 2020 - 10:37 PM

Hi Spell Jammer

Showing 368,8% growth with a target price of R6-75 in 12 months. It could still do strange things in-between, as it has a trading range from 23c to R21-56. This is the highest growth for a share from my program yet. Sasol had 220+% when it was at R23-00 with R75-00 target.

Something is definitely up with this share. Not many shares does such a large spike after a statement on the first day (140%). It did 75% (R1-05) in the first hour. Not many people got to buy this share in that first hour.

For me it's not just about the Chloroquine that they could, or could not be supplying. Although there is a big demand for it currently and the reality is that supplies are running short. People in fear, do strange things, and in the countries where Covid-19 has hit hardest, people, pharmacies and hospitals are trying to get hold of it and even stockpiling, should the need arise.

For me this report was the trigger, but the big reason is that there should be a fundamental reason for the upswing too. ASC has a Net Asset Value of R4-33/share and this was according to their Dec 2019 financials. This value and the value of the companies they wanted to sell, has now increased in value. Their NAV could probably be valued at R5-00/share as it stands at the moment. Should they show an increase in earnings for the next 2 periods, the value of R6-75 looks to be right on the money. Most shares in this sector is trading 3x NAV.

My program is not often far off with projections/valuations, but I like to check it with fundamentals as well and in this case the findings match.

Please do your own research as well before entering a trade.

Stay safe


Thanks Pilot.
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#1499 Investment novice

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Posted 12 April 2020 - 09:17 PM

Bcg relates to those that were vaccinated... Gsk got the right sort of vaccine versus the older.. Lets get some there..

Deaths in USA up... Despite the drug being available same in Italy... Think it's a red herring.... To give people hope..

If you see all FB and Twitter post... Gps treated patients with it... But 80% and more are asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic.... So wanted treatment.. Hence most gov... Stopped this... In hospital.... Have not seen any improvement.... In fact there is a major concern that this leads to death....

So be careful...... This could be the biggest hoax of all time.... To ensure calmness....

This share could go to r20, but could go back to 20c....


We in hell at the moment... And you will see massive highs and massive lows.
..

Be cautious.


Ascendis was quite honest after their pump... To talk about negative... Problem is they have a massive impact and worse with their balance sheet they don't have the stock to support demand.. And too slow to respond... High ticket items.... Not selling...... We have been watching this share and bought.... Tuesday hope to take profits... And sit on the side....

Will look for new England


eview the Supplemental Files folder to review documents not compiled in the PDF.
Clinical Outcomes of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized
Patients with COVID-19: A Quasi-Randomized Comparative
Study
Journal: New England Journal of Medicine
Manuscript ID 20-08882
Article Type: Rapid Review
Date Submitted by the
Author: 04-Apr-2020
Complete List of Authors: Barbosa, Joshua; Wayne State University School of Medicine; Sinai
Grace Hospital
Kaitis, Daniel; Henry Ford Hospital
Freedman, Ryan; Wayne State University School of Medicine
Le, Kim; Henry Ford Hospital
Lin, Xihui; Wayne State University School of Medicine,
Abstract:
Background: Off-label use of hydroxychloroquine in the SARS-CoV-2
positive population has become widespread with only empirical evidence
on its efficacy. This study addresses the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine
on serological and supportive care measures in a hospitalized population.
Methods: Consecutive adult subjects admitted for viral pneumonia
secondary to SARS-CoV-2 (by polymerase chain reaction) during the last
two weeks of March, 2020 were included. Those that were started on
hydroxychloroquine and supportive care were compared to supportive
care alone. The primary end points were effect of hydroxychloroquine
usage on the need to escalate respiratory support, change in lymphocyte
count, and change in neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio.
Results: A total of 63 patients were included with 32 in the
hydroxychloroquine arm. Hydroxychloroquine administration was
associated with a need for escalation of respiratory support level
compared to those that did not receive hydroxychloroquine at 5 days
(p=0.013). The same findings were observed in a baseline-matched
subgroup analysis. Absolute lymphocyte change in the
hydroxychloroquine group was no different than supportive care alone
(p=0.413). Hydroxychloroquine use trended towards worsening
neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio compared to supportive care alone
(+9.59 vs +1.58, p=0.51) as well as a higher risk for intubation
(p=0.051).
Conclusion: Hydroxychloroquine administration to the hospitalized SARS-
CoV-2 positive population was associated with an increased need for
escalation of respiratory support. There were no benefits of
hydroxychloroquine on mortality, lymphopenia, or neutrophil-to-
lymphocyte ratio improvement.
Confidential: Destroy when review is complete.


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#1500 Pilotpilot

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Posted 12 April 2020 - 08:03 PM

Hi Pilot where does your program see this one going to?

 

Hi Spell Jammer

 

Showing 368,8% growth with a target price of R6-75 in 12 months. It could still do strange things in-between, as it has a trading range from 23c to R21-56. This is the highest growth for a share from my program yet. Sasol had 220+% when it was at R23-00 with R75-00 target.

 

Something is definitely up with this share. Not many shares does such a large spike after a statement on the first day (140%). It did 75% (R1-05) in the first hour. Not many people got to buy this share in that first hour.

 

For me it's not just about the Chloroquine that they could, or could not be supplying. Although there is a big demand for it currently and the reality is that supplies are running short. People in fear, do strange things, and in the countries where Covid-19 has hit hardest, people, pharmacies and hospitals are trying to get hold of it and even stockpiling, should the need arise.

 

For me this report was the trigger, but the big reason is that there should be a fundamental reason for the upswing too. ASC has a Net Asset Value of R4-33/share and this was according to their Dec 2019 financials. This value and the value of the companies they wanted to sell, has now increased in value. Their NAV could probably be valued at R5-00/share as it stands at the moment. Should they show an increase in earnings for the next 2 periods, the value of R6-75 looks to be right on the money. Most shares in this sector is trading 3x NAV. 

 

My program is not often far off with projections/valuations, but I like to check it with fundamentals as well and in this case the findings match.

 

Please do your own research as well before entering a trade. 

 

Stay safe


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