1645 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

Hi Andi, anyone. Do you have the latest shareholding. There is significant benefit that this entity is owned majority by institutional investors. Have seen some increase their holdings since 2018.
Pls confirm. Acquisition of this entity or even a management buyout would be at a reasonable price.

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[Investment novice]

I think the obvious negative is the raging debt levels that is euro based. Need accountants to guide. Euo debt at 218m and rand debt at 2b. Ascendis debt was sitting at 5 billion....but with the june sens does this now sit at 6.5 billion with rand depreciation.? Could this he the obvious reason the share is sitting at 0.75c.



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[Blackobar]

I hope the next results shoot the lights out and they can service their debt without having to sell Remedica.

[Milo]

They busy preparing the financials. They did not want to sell Remedica previously at a low price because they know its worth more. Maybe they want the upcoming financials to do the talking. Hopefully a big pump coming soon.

[Investment novice]

I agree certainly on the external influence. Interestingly the slow poison downtrend was very low volume trades and could even be from nercous individual investors who are taking prifits from previous buys at 29c to 40c. Going to gold.
The big institutional guys are still there. And its unlikely there will be a cheap acquisition or takeover. It may be discounted or even at fairvalue due to cheap debt. Aspen may be a potential buyer.but i think this could be a bidwes acquistion to complement adcock . Or could be an international player such as fuji . Japanese debt is extremely cheap and remedicas portfolio and footprint with ascendis gives an african market entry. This is absolute speculation.

I got a few shares cheap hoping the volume is due to inside info on a tuesday sens... either way.....lobe the share, dont live the debt, and certainly not a steinhof with litigation hanging over it....

Have a great weekend....and pls....if anyone has any negative info....pls post

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[Pilotpilot]

This share is strange. We are in the worse crisis wrt COVID and this share is moving lower as opposed to trading sideways or upwards

Either people that have allot money are playing here and driving this share down to suit there own gains or we are in store for rocky results

 

I see it as a buying opportunity:)

 

There is some share manipulation. Share price drops with 3000 volume sale . Its a pity our jse is so hopeless that they cant pick up price manipulation. This share is held majority by institutional investors and share price moving on 0.02% volume. So all abstract. I would say if there is a dip use every opportunity to buy. The only negative news would be remedica sold for 100million usd.....or something...
Everyone is pro this share. So buy the dip...

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I agree with you guys. This is one of those shares like SNH, EOH, Aveng, LON etc. where these shares have been thrown like bait to the ordinary investor. The valuations are crazy and yet the price keeps going lower. Investors keep them for years and eventually the company gets taken over, liquidated, sold off, or goes under management. 

 

I did post about this in 2 posts..... here  and here ,  if you want to read more.

 

There might, or might not be a takeover, but this share price is definitely not moving normally. As soon as I realized it, I removed it from my share list. Steinhoff has the same issue if you read the second post.

 

There is a couple of other theories that could be happening, but that is a long story.....

 

Safe trading guys 

[Investment novice]

Hi. There should be a sens out , this is what we waiting on. It is cheaper for a big player to buy the shareholders out and refinance the debt and hold the assets then to go an buy remedica for a premium. Take the whole lot.

Not sure if this is a reality as even a preliminary meeting has to have a sens issued. Though there could he potential dancers.

Hypothetically. I would be happy to sell all ky shares for r10 a share. Thats 250 million euros....for the 500 million shares...cheap when you put it that way
.

250 million and debt at 200 million , big entity with a powerful balance sheet will enjoy the assets and footprint....and grow this company to the next level....


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[Leadingedge]

I am excited to finally be part of this forum, I have been watching from the sidelines for many months.

 

I am equally excited about the potential of this share, but today has caught me by surprise. I know I am an utter greenhorn when it comes to the technical aspects of share trading and assessing a company, but this does not make sense at all.

 

There is a rumour out there of a possible take-over happening behind the scenes, but it is pure speculation.

 

Maybe useless information but this is the first time since March, on the daily chart, that we are into oversold territory. Over 1.7million shares traded today already and counting.

 

Unfortunately with any company/share there will always be that aspect of what we don't know.

[Investment novice]

Well...now more shares being traded.....who knows..
But this is true...company has good revenue end dec 2019 pre covid which was brilliant for sustainability ...and then opportunistically had covid revenue and now in the new world will have revenue for the new world....
Dont look at value of share you have....try to either hold or buy the dip.....only lose if you sell.....

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[DeltaHedge]

There is some share manipulation. Share price drops with 3000 volume sale . Its a pity our jse is so hopeless that they cant pick up price manipulation. This share is held majority by institutional investors and share price moving on 0.02% volume. So all abstract. I would say if there is a dip use every opportunity to buy. The only negative news would be remedica sold for 100million usd.....or something...
Everyone is pro this share. So buy the dip...
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Thanks for the perspective, good to know it’s such little volume creating an untrue reflection on price.

[Investment novice]

Could also be general market sell off..time in the market......not timing.....end september you will be smiling

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[DeltaHedge]

This share is strange. We are in the worse crisis wrt COVID and this share is moving lower as opposed to trading sideways or upwards
Either people that have allot money are playing here and driving this share down to suit there own gains or we are in store for rocky results
 
I see it as a buying opportunity:)

Right now I am getting my balls handed to me on a plate, maybe insiders have info already ? Let’s hope this thing catches a bid soon.

[Investment novice]

There is some share manipulation. Share price drops with 3000 volume sale . Its a pity our jse is so hopeless that they cant pick up price manipulation. This share is held majority by institutional investors and share price moving on 0.02% volume. So all abstract. I would say if there is a dip use every opportunity to buy. The only negative news would be remedica sold for 100million usd.....or something...
Everyone is pro this share. So buy the dip...

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[vishalsur]

This share is strange. We are in the worse crisis wrt COVID and this share is moving lower as opposed to trading sideways or upwards

Either people that have allot money are playing here and driving this share down to suit there own gains or we are in store for rocky results

 

I see it as a buying opportunity:)

[DeltaHedge]

It looks a bit sick today, is there any news out ?

[Investment novice]

Thanks Andi. Scitec factored in and impaired tragically.
Revenue june 2020 include remedica which was not accounted for. I agree difficult to predict the ebitda. I want to hazard r1.3 - r1.5b adjusting for rand dollar depreciation

With the ebitda at this range be interesting the amounts swept to reduce debt, the change in ginancial ratios and the plan to offset some equity in remedica not the 100% stake. Also debt refinancing will be possible with clean financials and a 2020 afs as a going concern


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[andi222]

Hi IN,

 

It's really tough to say where EBITDA will fall. My best guess would be somewhere around 1.3 billion. However I can be considerably wrong. We will have to wait and see.

 

The latest negative I've seen is the sale of Scitec. Can't believe that they have bought this for around 200 Million € and they have sold it now for 5 Million plus keeping the negative liabilities. 

 

However this is already priced into the share. Let's wait for that first trading update and hopefully it will be very positive.

[Investment novice]

I learnt today about the compounding pharmacy .
Not sure market knowldge on a number of the ascendis assets. Needless to say that SA dr have applied a functional medicine approach which includes national adoption of vitamin protocols as well as mainstream medicine to treat covid. As well as to boost immunity. Many of the hospital based treatments include iv vitamin c. Short in stock and expensive. Any guesses which company provides this....
Potentially Ascendis could do alot better with their marketing...sad that we have to learn this haphazardly.

Please can anyone advise any negatives except for debt levels

And Andi...whats your call on ebitda...i suspect 30% additional on dec 2019
As a middle road..
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[Investment novice]

Andi do you have the latest shareholder lists for ascendis at the end of july?


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[Investment novice]

Cant time this market...think its a risk benefit...do you wait out to drop another 10c and lose out upside 50c. I just buy when i have cash at the best price...
No guarantee of any price low or high...buy within the safety margin...

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