1645 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

Have been watching some of the trades..just as share gets momentum with big buys..someone sells for a low price and very low volumes ..could be coincidental....its a real pity jse does notbgide or we dont hear of the markwt abuses and their investogations..would give comfort.

Witherway i try to ask myslef what would i pay for all 488m shares or for a book build...placement for 100m shares...and then i take that price.....remember at this price its no benefit to anyone accept us that can buy......asc management would want the share at least at r10 to r20 in order to place shares innthe market in future...would anyone buy a 100 million shares at r10?

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[Investment novice]

Please write to investor relations with concerns and questions.
I received two interesting pieces of information for ascendis on my query this week.

1 they cannot respond to my questions as it is price sensitive information . They could have responded and saying ascendis is not in any discussion etc. Their answer was intriguing and makes me want to double up...
2. Auditors finalising their process . This is fantastic as it gives comfort financials wont be delayed. And we should expect a voluntary update very very very soon.

I dont think there maybe sinister actions. Its a closed period and they cannot comment now. The ceo will be pushing to have this share reach new heights so its in the timing....look away...even if this share goes to 29c..unlikely...but has before.. crazy low from margin calls....use it as a time to buy....just remember you should be in as when she flies you wont regret paying 10c or 50c more....you will regret not holding any....

Colume drying up at low prices so may see the squeeze upwards coming...


Patience....and consider holding this share a minimum of 3 years... dec 2020 results will be fantastic as well compared to dec 2019.......



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[Leadingedge]

There is no doubt in my mind that there will be a trading statement in hopefully the second week of September. This adds more confusion, as there will be a jump in the share price once that trading statement is released and most likely a further run leading up to the release of the results, not to mention after the publication of the financials. So unless there is merger/acquisition announcement coming in the next few weeks, what would be the real benefit of keeping the share price depressed? 

 

There is definitely something unusual is happening with this share, I must probably accept that we will never know until it has happened - if it ever happens. Maybe I am just being impatient.

[Investment novice]

Volumes at low prices drying up...surely if there is some rumour worth its weight will see more trades and price picking up....perhaps those in tje know cant buy?

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[David-89]

Apologies, I must correct myself in that a take-over and acquisition is one and the same, however a merger is a different kettle of fish. Either way, I am interested in how both of these scenarios would impact the investors. Would the likes of Old Mutual and Nebank be purchasing more shares now if they had any insight that there may be a merger or acquisition in the pipeline?

One thing is for sure, the markets are all wonky at the moment. How is it possible during this time that pharmaceutical share prices have been declining yet hotels and property are rising sharply?

In my opinion the most likely scenario would be a management buyout.

Either way a buyout or takeover by another firm might explain the depressed share price.

I think the market is waiting for the financials to tell the story. Hopefully there is a trading update within the next month to ignite a bit of movement in the share price.

Edited by David-89, 13 August 2020 - 01:58 PM.

[Leadingedge]

My eye was also drawn to the fact that companies like Absa, Old Mutual, Nedbank, Sanlam and Momentum have taken a nibble at ASC. These are all players that are able to get their hands on information that we are not privy to...well certainly not me at least. 

 

 

Hi IN, maybe someone else can confirm, but to the best of my knowledge any discussions leading up to a take-over/merger will happen behind closed doors. We as investors will only find out about it once a firm offer has been made, where it will then be handed to the Competition Commission for approval (SENS will come out at the same time). A good example recently (although not a takeover) would be the acquisition of The Building Company by Cashbuild, which would have been months of discussions and negotiations behind the scenes prior to the SENS. 

 

Apologies, I must correct myself in that a take-over and acquisition is one and the same, however a merger is a different kettle of fish. Either way, I am interested in how both of these scenarios would impact the investors. Would the likes of Old Mutual and Nebank be purchasing more shares now if they had any insight that there may be a merger or acquisition in the pipeline?

 

One thing is for sure, the markets are all wonky at the moment. How is it possible during this time that pharmaceutical share prices have been declining yet hotels and property are rising sharply?

[Leadingedge]

Vangaurd is buying and selling.
Whats interesting is old mutual and other buyers.
Also safe is the large proportion of institutional ownership.
And fortunately c2c dont have margin calls...



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My eye was also drawn to the fact that companies like Absa, Old Mutual, Nedbank, Sanlam and Momentum have taken a nibble at ASC. These are all players that are able to get their hands on information that we are not privy to...well certainly not me at least. 

[Investment novice]

Ah that makes sense. Okay . Maybe there is a fire where there is smoke...good move by management if they plotting to take back their company. They also have access to really cheap debt.in cyprus sitting at 0%....

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[Leadingedge]

Leading edge...i thought a sens is required when there is behind the scenes discussion. Can you confirm , there is increasing rumours which may just all be fluff and should not distract. Most recent i heard is a israel based pe firm working with remedica for a management buyout of remedica.

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Hi IN, maybe someone else can confirm, but to the best of my knowledge any discussions leading up to a take-over/merger will happen behind closed doors. We as investors will only find out about it once a firm offer has been made, where it will then be handed to the Competition Commission for approval (SENS will come out at the same time). A good example recently (although not a takeover) would be the acquisition of The Building Company by Cashbuild, which would have been months of discussions and negotiations behind the scenes prior to the SENS. 

[Investment novice]

I am excited to finally be part of this forum, I have been watching from the sidelines for many months.

I am equally excited about the potential of this share, but today has caught me by surprise. I know I am an utter greenhorn when it comes to the technical aspects of share trading and assessing a company, but this does not make sense at all.

There is a rumour out there of a possible take-over happening behind the scenes, but it is pure speculation.

Maybe useless information but this is the first time since March, on the daily chart, that we are into oversold territory. Over 1.7million shares traded today already and counting.

Unfortunately with any company/share there will always be that aspect of what we don't know.

Leading edge...i thought a sens is required when there is behind the scenes discussion. Can you confirm , there is increasing rumours which may just all be fluff and should not distract. Most recent i heard is a israel based pe firm working with remedica for a management buyout of remedica.

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[Investment novice]

Vangaurd is buying and selling.
Whats interesting is old mutual and other buyers.
Also safe is the large proportion of institutional ownership.
And fortunately c2c dont have margin calls...



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[Investment novice]

Vangaurd is buying and selling.
Whats interesting is old mutual and other buyers.
Also safe is the large proportion of institutional ownership.
And fortunately c2c dont have margin calls...

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[Sleepwa123]

Interesting to see how Vanguard sold here and bought a lot of Steinhoff

[Shi]

https://www.mornings...e/asc/ownership

 

Anyone with some insight on how this site works (e.g. when are these figures applicable and what movement is compared to)? Vanguard Group sold lots and there is more buying than selling (select Buying then Selling, and Institutions, and compare).

[Investment novice]

' IV High-Dose Vitamin C Success Story in COVID-19

We posted about the interesting thing about ascendis compunding pharmacy. One of the few companies to makenthis and already has deals with drs and hospital.....the compounding pharmacy....read up..
Another future and current use product as functional medicine comes to the fore..
Not all pharma make this.....

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[David-89]

Just a note...covid revenue is fantastic...but this share has value beyond covid.
May see news on a vaccine...great news. Will calm financial markets and hopefully funds running from resources will come here...in the rebalancing..

This is a cheap share with ongoing revenue. Bank the covid revenue to pay off debt. Rand strengthens...debt nornalises...strategy from ceo and company....lots to look forward to in a covid and non covid environment.

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Hi Investment Novice. I agree, this is a long term share for me. The Covid revenue pump was a bonus to me as it will allow Ascendis some stability going forward given the extra cash flows and hopefully lower debt levels.

Furthermore it seems most of the world is implementing expansionary monetary policy by cutting interest rates which will allow Ascendis to refinance their debt and drop their finance costs. Everything points towards a significant upward turn.

I see there was chatter of a possible takeover - I have no doubt Ascendis could be a potential takeover given their depressed share price and great earning potential especially with a bit of restructuring. However I don’t think this scenario is likely given the current poor economic climate. Bear in mind most acquisitions are not value creating for the acquirer, the acquisition risk is too high in the current poor and volatile economy.

[Investment novice]

Just a note...covid revenue is fantastic...but this share has value beyond covid.
May see news on a vaccine...great news. Will calm financial markets and hopefully funds running from resources will come here...in the rebalancing..

This is a cheap share with ongoing revenue. Bank the covid revenue to pay off debt. Rand strengthens...debt nornalises...strategy from ceo and company....lots to look forward to in a covid and non covid environment.

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[Investment novice]

The share price is never predictable but we can guess ome truths...if there is valye the share will climb, if there is risk in todays enviro the price will remain deflated. Saying that the markets dont respond academically...rather than spot price look at the trend...you lose if you sell. If you set a level that you not comfortable and you reach then many advise to sell....but this should be based on your strategy of trading or investing. Many of us , me particularly am greedy for a quick buck..whoch os gambling and wrong
..we see this share as doing well...we could be wrong and the price only recovers if there is really good news...because of the big if...many wont get in now....but wtach out...if there is good news this share will fly....i like the dream of this being at r5 to r12..at 75c....now....488 million shares and remedica worth 350 usd to 400 usd..take my chances....no court cases yet...

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[David-89]

Morning chaps. I’m new to the forum.

I’ve also got a large chunk in Ascendis which I’ve had for a quite a number of months now. Currently I’m down quite a lot so I’m really hoping for some good news soon.

The company, like all health care companies, currently has a lot of potential given the pandemic. Hopefully management is taking full advantage of this to settle their debt and push the value of Remedica up if their intention is still to dispose of Remedica to settle some debt.

It baffles me that there is no upward trend in the share prices as has been the case for other health care shares in the last 6 months. Hopefully this is due to the market being cautious or simply the share value is being overlooked.

Hopefully the upcoming financial results will tell a story of management turning around Ascendis for the better.

Edited by David-89, 11 August 2020 - 11:43 AM.

[Investment novice]

Some quick early morning trades usually picks up in the day. Low volume but quite interesting. Hoping these coming weeks we get more info or see more movement.
Apart from revenue and debt..debt both which are euro based and is massively problematic....i would guess market looking at strategy for remedica .... makes sense to see 50% and release 200 million euro to clear euro debt...or to refinance debt in cyprus at close to 0...perhaps a management buyout from the remedica owners of the whole of ascendis...who knows whats out there...debt is cheap and there are some really good opportunities...



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