So here goes waiting on the evidence and literature... But there are many many many articles already posted which suggested that there is definately a role for chloroquine. The question is around dosages and when do you utilize it. There is anecdotal information coming from South Africa cases where drs started this early and are less willing to ventilate providing a more conservative approach and better outcomes. Ventilator use and late treatment with chloroquine is not advised.
The use of chloroquin is supported thus far in various countries, still being studied which will take 6 or more months. Everyone using it for the following :
1. Early diagnosis and fear of converting to symptomatic. Not supported but demand is rife.
2. For treatment where hospitalization not required. This seems to be where big big big volume is driving demand
3. Hospital admissions and here it is included in all countries regimes
4. Late stage. Not certain.
5. Health workers using it on a different regime not treatment.. For prevention. Having the drug in the system helps prevent the infection apparently. This is also across the board many countries.
6. When exposed. Similar to hiv.. If you came into contact you immediately use the chloroquine or hydroversion. Driving demand
The experts thus advise me personally.. Not you... Just sharing what I have been told. There is insufficient hard evidence but the experts say that is just to cover drs with errors. They say the fact that all drs and nurses have started using this speaks volumes. They also say the disease process is poorly understood and that chloroquine may or may not target the virus but interestingly it opens the door to zinc which is part of treatment and probably will be combined with new chloroquine preparations. Hence even if its not used as primary drug there is certainly a room for using this drug.
Now the investment case. I am going to invest a large chunk of my free cash to pump this share. I am comfortable with my research. This company is highly geared but I believe the asset value is now significantly more than we all think which explains the 400% growth. The share should be trading at 20x multiple and this company is going to be a hot acquisition target which i see could bet at r20 a share.
Here are my reasons
1. Unprecedented demand for chloroquin proven or unproven everyone wants the drug and very limited companies can produce. Asc can easily leverage this
2. Apart from this experts advise as reported by media, asc holds a basket of other drugs that are second line and hence thelis too ahs not been accounted for.
3. Asc has a range of vital products. I visited dischem to see the range. And the shelves were bare. Found a few. Including zinc, vit E, vit a and a number. These otc have cleared the shelf and dischem advises stocks in soon. The markup on otcs historically are horrendously crazy 40 or 50 or even 300%. This has not been factored. I mentioned asc have not been truthful. I think they actually downplayed the significance.
4. The ecmo products and ventilator products have flown off the shelf as hospitals stockpile. Many sa to be produced are for expansion and won't compete in this market. However the experts who I have spoke to said they cannot understand the profit on ecmo, usually low utilized and expansive high margins, but with covid icu patients this is critical with getting oxygen in the blood especially now when clinical experts requesting less ventilation or lower pressures. This should in itself be a gold mine product
5. Lastly... Asc mentioned a reduction of surgery, but this is not significant as the delay and backlog are no causing surgical pressures.. So this is delayed sales and revenue rather than lost revenue
I was absolutely gobsmacked with the conversation. Sounds plausible. Fortunately I have lost and gained on this share. But as today will commit to buy 400000 shares or less or more depending on the price I can score it at.
I will use every subsequent day to try get more.
Hoping that this share should be easily r3`. Sort maybe r6, perhaps if I follow experts they reckon a aggressive acquition at r20 and taking the debt. And this may be only for remedica.
Based on the prices the company may also elect to reward shareholders and lock in r20 and delist....
Please don't accuse me of pumping. Or dumping. Or falsifying. I committed to conversing and feeding back. You may engage your financial experts.. I engaged clinical experts. I am not a financial or clinical expert in all these matters. It is my research to motivate the way forward. Praying that all of us can make some money. To comfort some losses.
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Very informative. Thanks for sharing