258 replies to this topic

[Polly]

Hi P, any current opinions Sasol,,, excepthe f upd badly on budget...my equities down 10 percent,,,not trading any cfds at moment until market starts going green,,,too risky fir me right now so sittchec

 

check sasol chart posted here about 3 posts back....all there...expecting to retest +-335 big support levels

 

from what im reading , this was a major major miss on that budget again...and when new plant comes online sasol wont be an oil company but a chemical company.When you have 13% share drop in a week , measn be carefull out there... we know what happened to the PS , aspen , mtn , vodacom etc...this thing could quickly drop at R200.00 if R335 support  goes...  I think debt may be an issue now...

 

Thats why i said previously...stop stop stop.....mental or actual...never move stops...

[Midas1]

Hi P, any current opinions Sasol,,, excepthe f upd badly on budget...my equities down 10 percent,,,not trading any cfds at moment until market starts going green,,,too risky fir me right now so sitting out

[Midas1]

Hi P, thanks saw your cfd comments and will look to learn but sold all cfds last was imp on friday as my nerves were wrecked....but bought npn on equities have sol on equities and bought more this am...also have shp, mrp, ill try cfds again when things a bit more stable as bit.mad at moment with trump. Ps mcz on equities not great hey...any comments? Dont think ill do npn cfds again...isnt for old people with learners plates ....

[Polly]

just an update on my 4 shorts as per charts posted 2 weeks re NPN , AGL , IMP , and Sasol...

 

all beautiful classic technical trades and all in money big time

 

 

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Sasol:  break of trendline..short at R452...arrow on stoch confirmed on break of 80

 

still holding...today @ 376

 

key here is broke an important support trendline that goes back 10 years... if doesnt recover it by tonight this thing can go backl to R330.00 at least!!

 

 

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Anglos

 

broke trend line and stoch arrow confirming a short @ 389.00

 

closed once stoch reached 20 @  R362.00

 

 

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Impala..

 

short at top of channel  qwith stoch confirmation 60.00

 

closed at R55.00 as stoch reaches 20 and reacting bottom of channel

 

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NPN

 

short near top of channel with stoch confirmation and negative divergence @ 350.00

 

closed today at R320.00 as  stoch reaches20 and hitting lilac serrated support line...

If R310.00 breaks to downside im short again!!

 

 

 

Midas hope all these tech calls help you in your journey trading cfds...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Midas1]

Well you shorting so good on ya..ill stay away on imp until something resolved but do like impala

[soutie]

As per SENS 1st unprotected strike at AMS this morning....down 1% at open IMP also...Viva the revolution.....A few choice words from AMCU now please...

[Midas1]

Sorry man 56.30 cell phone dyslexia 😂

[soutie]

Ducked out imp at 62.30...not holding any cfds for weekend..lekker...

Oh do tell where you exited at that price...!!!!

 

 

SHARE HISTORY DATE CLOSE HIGH LOW VOLUME 17/05/2019 5650 5694 5506 4,763,014 16/05/2019 5587 5682 5566 2,127,619 15/05/2019 5600 5677 5484 1,993,553 14/05/2019 5548 5698 5537 6,244,157 13/05/2019 5670 5965 5627 4,741,429 10/05/2019 5785 5873 5684 5,717,575 09/05/2019 5639 6072 5639 4,887,330 07/05/2019 6011 6066 5937 3,754,958 06/05/2019 6019 6019 5779 1,691,056 03/05/2019 5927 5932 5562 3,766,389

Edited by soutie, 20 May 2019 - 08:46 AM.

[Midas1]

Ducked out imp at 62.30...not holding any cfds for weekend..lekker...

[Midas1]

Hi Soutie....interesting what this article says....."An amicable outcome will bolster Ramaphosa - a former mine union leader and one-time platinum company investor - as he seeks to lure foreign investors. However, tensions are fraught on both sides and there are fears the labor unions will go on strike, which could send platinum prices soaring

[Midas1]

Oh l rd...im long..but not looking big increase...i sold my bti few weeks ago by way...just wasn't holding the profit for me so got out...thanks

[soutie]

Plat miners will retrace albeit slowly until wage negotiations are favourably concluded I'm short IMP. Actually a nice devastating strike would come in handy right about now.   

[Midas1]

Impala cheap at moment I think...imo has capability of getting 62 easily again..in time

[Midas1]

Brent looks like could go bullish if gets about 71.80...so sasol could join..hovering around 71 usd

[Polly]

Chart of Delta Properties:

 

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tech analysis :

 

1. support upward t/l at R1.90

2. lilca serrated line at R4.19 whiich is too far away higher than price....

 

    means solid recovery underway...

    or price goes sideways for a long time till that lilac ma comes down over time

 

3. next resistance is R2.63

4. red and brown averages now both starting to point upwards but brown needs to cut above red for price  sustain this momentum upwards

5. stoch and rsi reaching the overnight levels...so price may go sideways to down once overthought reached , indicators unwind and then back up..However price can also remain in overnight territory for ages if volumes sustain it..At moment lots of big volume bids.. IF bids disappear then price will fall...

 

 

Conclusion:

 

If you see the 1.70/R1.80 area price was stuck there for over 2 months and this was typical base building, or support territory , or clever money buying and when this happens we normally have a breakout to upside..

R2.63 level is now the line n sand....Needs to break this to go up convincingly, otherwise cleaver money may start dumping again...results out  soon.. Was  a poor trading statement which knocked price to the floor but leases are now being resigned so going forward very very attractive to get in for traders with high risk appetite. For those conservative traders , wait for results and a break above R2.63 to go long..All stops at R 1.85....take profit going forward could be anything between R3.00 to R5.00  with a nice fat juicy reit dividend of over 20%...

 

seems that R2.63 resistance in play here...

[Polly]

daily chart of Sasol:

 

a1.PNG

 

 

 

Tech opinion :

 

1. daily uptrend support line way down at R387.00

2. on friday , share price broke down below red arrow support line of +-461.50

3. lilac serrated line has given support thrice so far ..been 3 knocks to downside last few days...that ma is 454.44 as of friday.

bounced off again there on friday too..

4. tsi indcator juts about going below 0

5. stoch juts about going below 80 into a sell terriority

6. rsi negative divergence in play..

 

 

Conclusion : patience to enter any trade  here...next week will be vital to confirm short or long

FX has strengthened on Friday and  brent oil has come off big...If thse 2 do same thsi week , short will be confirmed as sasol very very sensitive to both!!

perfect technical short in play....$$$$$$

[Polly]

daily chart of AGL

 

a1.PNG

 

 

 

 

Teach views :

 

1. price way above serrated lilac line which stands at 335.00

2. negative divergence on risi from 1st march to recent high resulted in drop in price..

3. broke below upward sloping trendline at +- r391

4. red and brown msas closing together..if red cuts below brown expect a waterfall reaction

5. RED serrated line at +-R364...bounced 3 times off that leaving a head and shoulders print behind...could this bounce now be the r/s..

6. 2 investment houses have given a buy or overweight recommendation this week. Could this be the catalysis for a bounce back uo to highs or bounce for right shoulder?  Interesting times

7. Mr Copper taken a nasty whack last week and this effect AGL directly.

 

Conclusion:

 

1. Go long near R364.00 with a sharp stop of 1%...take rprofit near R397.00

2. Gi short at close of day below R364.00 with sharp stop above price of 1%.. take half profit near lilac serrated line of R335 and if that breaks head and shoulders target near R320.00

break of that channel to downside now playing out...

Edited by Polly, 09 May 2019 - 10:02 AM.

[Polly]

daily chart of market leader NPN!!

 

 

 

a1.JPG

 

 

 

 

1. price well above lilac serrated line +-R316

2. red mv well above brown ma

3.price within channel but at top..

4. stoch in heavily overbought territory

5. RSI in overbought territory with negative divergence.

6. DMI adx still showing a strong positive uptrend

TSI above zero but showing price expecting a pullback as red now above green signal

 

My conclusion

 

strong shares can stay in overbought territories for a while depending on strength of usa markets

price really extended and being at top of channel with negative divergence in place i expect a pullback to at least test the red ma +- 365 and if further weakness to brown ma +-349.

as we hitting top of channel but that channel upward sloping so any upward momentum restricted to +-R2.00 a day  if that channel holds.

Froma trading point of view i wont  long now until that top of channel is taken out by at least R10.00 IE we have a breakout!!  Otherwise at top of channel it could be a short for a quick dip down to red  ma at least!!

Also momentum is really to upside and npn needs to follow to take alsi higher so if you think alsi will go higher than npn should go higher. However from a charting ta point of view that top of channel should provide resistance. 

 

In cases like this where conflicting views appear on alsi and  npn , best to sit on hands and do nothing and until further clues given where we heading overall...

 

Aggressive traders can short here though with stop 1% above current price..take profits near red ma but i wont ....Markets pure momentum driven at moment!!

 

M you question to me....I say as you in stay put but sharpen your stop to at least R359.00. If you look at chart that red ma has always provided the support so far  from 1st March 2019..seems to bounce of it everytime..  but remember the negative divergence so here where the sharp stop comes into play!!

 

If you follow Dr Roffey then you will know he says when all the indicators are at the top, you...........SELL!!  same scenario here but he gets it 80% wrong anyway!!!

 

 

top of channel was the resistance....boom

[Midas1]

Yes and but holding exxarro as its down cause dividend day..should go up again..think they all go up again Thursday. I think sa going have good run for few weeks once trump settles something

[Rex]

Think npn going do run up today..lets see

 

Hey Midas, I hope you sold before the fall?