299 replies to this topic

[soutie]

Oil steadied amid hopes that the world’s biggest producers of crude will agree to curtail production at a meeting to be held by video conference at 1400 GMT.

 

Taken from an article on Moneyweb.

[Spell Jammer]

Geez sasol is flying.

[Lionelza1]

Hi Lionel...Read somewhere it's today 14:00GMT....Hence the pump....

Hi Soutie.... I was watching CNN last night and a reporter asked trump about negotiations with opec and cutting oil production etc, trump responded he was not approached by opec but he will give an answer on Thursday to the reporter... Apparently there's some meeting taking place on Thursday I do not know

And then again trump and his lies

Ive been watching this share since 20bucks haha... Bloody hell....

[soutie]

They will be discussing this on Thursday?

 

Hi Lionel...Read somewhere it's today 14:00GMT....Hence the pump....

[Lionelza1]

(Bloomberg) --Saudi Arabia, Russia and other large oil producers are racing to negotiate a deal to stem the historic price crash as diplomats said some progress was made on Sunday.
The talks still face significant obstacles: a meeting of producers from OPEC+ and beyond -- delayed once -- is only tentatively scheduled for Thursday. Russia and Saudi Arabia want the U.S. to join in, but U.S. President Donald Trump has so far shown little willingness to do so.

Oil diplomats are trying to stitch together a meeting of G20 energy ministers for Friday, as part of the effort to bring the U.S. on board, according to two people familiar with the situation.

Crude prices have fallen 50% this year, as the economic effects of the pandemic have knocked out about a third of global demand. The price crash is so dramatic that it’s threatening the stability of oil-dependent nations, the existence of U.S. shale producers, and poses an extra challenge to central banks.

Even the International Energy Agency, which represents nations that consume oil, is calling for action. And oil officials know that if a deal to cut output in an orderly way isn’t reached, the slump in prices will force some producers to shut down operations as storage on land and at sea is filling up.

The aim of talks, first revealed by Trump last week, is to cut oil production by about 10% -- the biggest ever coordinated reduction. Oil rallied on Trump’s comments last week, but then pared those gains as the diplomatic intricacies became clearer.

Cut Together

Saudi Arabia and Russia both say they want the U.S., which has become the world’s largest producer thanks to the shale revolution, to join the cuts. But Trump had only hostile words for OPEC on Saturday, and threatened tariffs on foreign oil.

“If the Americans don’t take part, the problem which existed before for the Russians and Saudis will remain -- that they cut output while the U.S ramps it up, and that makes the whole thing impossible,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, a research group that advises the Kremlin.

It’s not clear if Russia and Saudi Arabia will require the U.S. to publicly commit to cut production -- a challenge in the private, fragmented American industry -- or if a compromise gesture would be enough. Alexander Dynkin, president of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow, a state-run think tank, said Moscow would like the U.S. to lift some sanctions as a compromise.

Russia and Saudi Arabia -- which sparred publicly between themselves over the weekend -- have also disagreed about how they would calculate the cuts, according to a person familiar with the talks.

But in another sign of progress, Norway -- which hasn’t joined any production cuts since 2002 -- signaled over the weekend it was ready to reduce unilaterally its output if others did. And a senior official from the oil-rich Canadian province of Alberta said it will dial into the oil meeting this week. Iraq’s oil minister said he was optimistic about a deal.

Any agreement will require diplomatic agility at a time when nations are devoting massive resources to fighting the pandemic itself. It’s also a battle of wills between Putin, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and Trump. On all sides, there are maneuvers to avoid blame if negotiations fail.

Trump said Saturday at a White House press briefing he’s opposed OPEC his whole life, and characterized it as a cartel, or monopoly. “I don’t care about OPEC,” he said. He threatened to use tariffs if needed to protect the domestic oil industry, even as he predicted that Saudi Arabia and Russia would come to an agreement

They will be discussing this on Thursday?

[Lionelza1]

Sasol and mtn are pumping.... Am I missing an opportunity here?

[soutie]

Well I've thankfully just halved my long @R43+change as it was keeping me awake at night...

Will let the other half run as long as I hold my other portfolio long @R130 after averaging down...   Not a policy I full y subscribe to...

On balance my loss isn't pleasant but at least I can look at it now...  

[Burnt as well]

(Bloomberg) --Saudi Arabia, Russia and other large oil producers are racing to negotiate a deal to stem the historic price crash as diplomats said some progress was made on Sunday.
The talks still face significant obstacles: a meeting of producers from OPEC+ and beyond -- delayed once -- is only tentatively scheduled for Thursday. Russia and Saudi Arabia want the U.S. to join in, but U.S. President Donald Trump has so far shown little willingness to do so.

Oil diplomats are trying to stitch together a meeting of G20 energy ministers for Friday, as part of the effort to bring the U.S. on board, according to two people familiar with the situation.

Crude prices have fallen 50% this year, as the economic effects of the pandemic have knocked out about a third of global demand. The price crash is so dramatic that it’s threatening the stability of oil-dependent nations, the existence of U.S. shale producers, and poses an extra challenge to central banks.

Even the International Energy Agency, which represents nations that consume oil, is calling for action. And oil officials know that if a deal to cut output in an orderly way isn’t reached, the slump in prices will force some producers to shut down operations as storage on land and at sea is filling up.

The aim of talks, first revealed by Trump last week, is to cut oil production by about 10% -- the biggest ever coordinated reduction. Oil rallied on Trump’s comments last week, but then pared those gains as the diplomatic intricacies became clearer.

Cut Together

Saudi Arabia and Russia both say they want the U.S., which has become the world’s largest producer thanks to the shale revolution, to join the cuts. But Trump had only hostile words for OPEC on Saturday, and threatened tariffs on foreign oil.

“If the Americans don’t take part, the problem which existed before for the Russians and Saudis will remain -- that they cut output while the U.S ramps it up, and that makes the whole thing impossible,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, a research group that advises the Kremlin.

It’s not clear if Russia and Saudi Arabia will require the U.S. to publicly commit to cut production -- a challenge in the private, fragmented American industry -- or if a compromise gesture would be enough. Alexander Dynkin, president of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow, a state-run think tank, said Moscow would like the U.S. to lift some sanctions as a compromise.

Russia and Saudi Arabia -- which sparred publicly between themselves over the weekend -- have also disagreed about how they would calculate the cuts, according to a person familiar with the talks.

But in another sign of progress, Norway -- which hasn’t joined any production cuts since 2002 -- signaled over the weekend it was ready to reduce unilaterally its output if others did. And a senior official from the oil-rich Canadian province of Alberta said it will dial into the oil meeting this week. Iraq’s oil minister said he was optimistic about a deal.

Any agreement will require diplomatic agility at a time when nations are devoting massive resources to fighting the pandemic itself. It’s also a battle of wills between Putin, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and Trump. On all sides, there are maneuvers to avoid blame if negotiations fail.

Trump said Saturday at a White House press briefing he’s opposed OPEC his whole life, and characterized it as a cartel, or monopoly. “I don’t care about OPEC,” he said. He threatened to use tariffs if needed to protect the domestic oil industry, even as he predicted that Saudi Arabia and Russia would come to an agreement

[Burnt as well]

Agreed Soutie. The shocker is that i got in at R25 at one stage and sold out at R36 because i was getting too jittery. Enjoy the run. Fortune favors the brave and you deserve your positive returns.

Im still however not convinced that oil can sustain anything beyond the $30-$36 dollar range for much of the first few months of this year given the economic and shutdown/slowdowns globally. Saudi Arabia and Russia are far from reaching an agreement too. Saudi Arabia expects both America and Russia to drop capacity, which neither of the two countries are prepared to do as the artificial market manipulation keeps American shale oil companies profitable the higher the price. Russia is also fedup with America due to sanctions and is using this to destroy the American shale gas industry as a leverage tool.

Trump is living in a pipe dream if he thinks that Russia and Saudi Arabia will drop consumption by 10 million barrels per day sadly or if there is a quick resolution to this. Oil can potentially drop further. What i am uncertain about is for how many months Sasol can sustain their hedging bet at low oil prices before they go bust. There are definitely short opportunities here, long term, im not sure.

Seems you were right. Meeting moved to 9 April but given the jibes over the weekend, I don’t have confidence in the supply reduction. I think oil might drop below $30 again on Monday with Sasol dropping as well:

The big OPEC+ meeting has been rescheduled to April 9th after Riyadh and Moscow traded barbs about who's to blame for the collapse in oil prices. Oil surged on Friday after the virtual gathering was scheduled. The IEA suggested that the deepest cuts ever couldn't stabilize the market.

Edited by Burnt as well, 04 April 2020 - 08:54 PM.

[soutie]

Curve Ball...The FED will continue to print money (world reserve) & oil priced in $'s so Shale production could be deemed an economic asset ala Detroit's car dominance during the 2008 crash.

I think they will get support so as the US will never be beholden to foreign producers again. Plus the US is a net exporter of oil both crude & refined & this is apretty recent development.

To use Snippet's analogy Sasol could just be all fur & feathers in this spat....Hope not...

Cheers.

[Spell Jammer]

 

Hey Gents

 

My view on Sasol is maybe a bit different.

 

Sasol has lost 96% of its share price over the past 19 months (From R550 to R22). It is a tremendous fall and has wiped out nearly all their value. My program very rarely has shares in such a downtrend, as potential value, but in this case, the program is projecting an average price of R75-00 for Sasol over the next year. This downturn has been overdone by some way, as my program is pretty conservative with most projections.

 

On the legal action side and fundamental side. I am not sure for what amount they will be liable for, and in which way the court will view this case, as the oil price also had a big influence on the price changes that are being claimed. My best estimate is that this amount will be for around R50-R120 of the share price. Sasol has a net asset value of around R345-00/share. So this is a good benchmark to work from. Subtract the R120 and projected future losses because of the low oil price (R20-70?). This means R345 less R190, should give a value of around R155-00 for this share.

 

Currently, I think a lot of analysts got it wrong with the bottom of the price for Brent. It just turned at levels of 2001/2002 and I do not think we will see the $15/barrel every doom prophet was predicting. I have been watching it very closely and last week there was a lot of support and this should be our bottom. I do not think it is viable for any company to produce oil at these levels, except if you have a very weak currency (like Sasol). Sasol had a break-even producing cost of around $35/barrel, but with a 30% recent weakening of the rand, they should produce oil at around $25/barrel. 

 

With the Moody's downgrade, I am expecting further weakening of the Rand, and it has already picked up momentum. This will favor Sasol even further a my program is predicting R20/$+ value for the Rand vs the Dollar. 

 

I am watching the Covid-19 scenario globally and locally, and have been doing some calculations. Although the USA and the UK have cocked it up over the last few weeks, most of the world has now realized how to contain this virus, and know what measures should be taken. It seems we have passed our infliction point and the growth rate is slowing. In 2-4 week's time, it will still seem like the virus is spreading fast, but this will be current cases that have been undetected and the numbers should drop after that. Social distancing will keep the spreading of the virus under control and new cases will be dealt with very quickly as we have learned now from the Chinese.

 

Sasol has still been the best selection by the program over the last 2 weeks. It is still at buying levels over medium and longer term. The projected price of R75 is still a conservative figure over a 12 month period.

 

 

 

 

 

Very good analysis Pilot. Thanks for your valuable insights.

[Pilotpilot]

Hey Gents

 

My view on Sasol is maybe a bit different.

 

Sasol has lost 96% of its share price over the past 19 months (From R550 to R22). It is a tremendous fall and has wiped out nearly all their value. My program very rarely has shares in such a downtrend, as potential value, but in this case, the program is projecting an average price of R75-00 for Sasol over the next year. This downturn has been overdone by some way, as my program is pretty conservative with most projections.

 

On the legal action side and fundamental side. I am not sure for what amount they will be liable for, and in which way the court will view this case, as the oil price also had a big influence on the price changes that are being claimed. My best estimate is that this amount will be for around R50-R120 of the share price. Sasol has a net asset value of around R345-00/share. So this is a good benchmark to work from. Subtract the R120 and projected future losses because of the low oil price (R20-70?). This means R345 less R190, should give a value of around R155-00 for this share.

 

Currently, I think a lot of analysts got it wrong with the bottom of the price for Brent. It just turned at levels of 2001/2002 and I do not think we will see the $15/barrel every doom prophet was predicting. I have been watching it very closely and last week there was a lot of support and this should be our bottom. I do not think it is viable for any company to produce oil at these levels, except if you have a very weak currency (like Sasol). Sasol had a break-even producing cost of around $35/barrel, but with a 30% recent weakening of the rand, they should produce oil at around $25/barrel. 

 

With the Moody's downgrade, I am expecting further weakening of the Rand, and it has already picked up momentum. This will favor Sasol even further a my program is predicting R20/$+ value for the Rand vs the Dollar. 

 

I am watching the Covid-19 scenario globally and locally, and have been doing some calculations. Although the USA and the UK have cocked it up over the last few weeks, most of the world has now realized how to contain this virus, and know what measures should be taken. It seems we have passed our infliction point and the growth rate is slowing. In 2-4 week's time, it will still seem like the virus is spreading fast, but this will be current cases that have been undetected and the numbers should drop after that. Social distancing will keep the spreading of the virus under control and new cases will be dealt with very quickly as we have learned now from the Chinese.

 

Sasol has still been the best selection by the program over the last 2 weeks. It is still at buying levels over medium and longer term. The projected price of R75 is still a conservative figure over a 12 month period.

 

 

 

 

[Snippit]

Putin has said that Russia can go 6 years at $25 to $30. The refusal of Russia to further reduce output fits with the narrative of consequential US shale oil industry strain being the desired effect in response to the US sanctions threats that have caused delays on the Nord Stream 2 project. Already one of the major  US shale companies has moved to bankruptcy. The US used to be immune from 'what goes around comes around'. Just another sign of the changing times I suppose.

[Spell Jammer]

Morning Spell Jammer...Mostly these days I'm so bombarded with info whether real/fake it's difficult to tell & with someone like Trump as with Zuma lying your way out of things is the status quo....

All's I know oil is holding at a much better level than before this...My Sasol isn't looking as disappointing either my only gripe is I missed getting on the bus for this rally.

Have a profitable day..

Cheers. 

Agreed Soutie. The shocker is that i got in at R25 at one stage and sold out at R36 because i was getting too jittery. Enjoy the run. Fortune favors the brave and you deserve your positive returns.

 

Im still however not convinced that oil can sustain anything beyond the $30-$36 dollar range for much of the first few months of this year given the economic and shutdown/slowdowns globally. Saudi Arabia and Russia are far from reaching an agreement too. Saudi Arabia expects both America and Russia to drop capacity, which neither of the two countries are prepared to do as the artificial market manipulation keeps American shale oil companies profitable the higher the price. Russia is also fedup with America due to sanctions and is using this to destroy the American shale gas industry as a leverage tool. 

 

Trump is living in a pipe dream if he thinks that Russia and Saudi Arabia will drop consumption by 10 million barrels per day sadly or if there is a quick resolution to this. Oil can potentially drop further. What i am uncertain about is for how many months Sasol can sustain their hedging bet at low oil prices before they go bust. There are definitely short opportunities here, long term, im not sure.

Edited by Spell Jammer, 03 April 2020 - 09:19 AM.

[soutie]

Morning Spell Jammer...Mostly these days I'm so bombarded with info whether real/fake it's difficult to tell & with someone like Trump as with Zuma lying your way out of things is the status quo....

All's I know oil is holding at a much better level than before this...My Sasol isn't looking as disappointing either my only gripe is I missed getting on the bus for this rally.

Have a profitable day..

Cheers. 

[Spell Jammer]

This is still trouble waters....

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

Opening session is going to be brutal tomorrow if this turns out to be true. Trumpets misled the world again lols. Trump should be investigated for insider trading.

 

 

 

Kremlin says no talks with Saudi Arabia happened, after Trump’s tweets claim Moscow and Riyadh will cut oil production. In his statement, Trump referred to his conversation with the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who he said had spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin. This statement seems somewhat bizarre, since Moscow has confirmed that the talks never occurred, nor are there any plans to cut production.

“No, there was no such conversation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russia’s Interfax news agency when asked about Putin’s supposed talks with the Saudi crown prince. Moscow said earlier that no talks between the two nations have been held since the strife between Russia and the OPEC members earlier in March, which was described as an oil price war between Moscow and Riyadh.

 

https://www.rt.com/n...udi-arabia-oil/

Edited by Spell Jammer, 02 April 2020 - 07:23 PM.

[Investment novice]

This is still trouble waters....

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[soutie]

R35 level breached...Keeping my cash....

[Spell Jammer]

The hedge is a good thing me thinks even if slightly loss making me thinks....Efficiencies can be found to reduce the loss...

The big financiers that are into Sasol for Billions want some certainty & this gives them some...A small step in the right direction.

Going long on a re-test & STRONG HOLD of the R35 level...Fingers X'sd

All depends on how long there is an oversupply of cheap oil with low demand as a result of prolonged lock downs and geopolitics. 

Edited by Spell Jammer, 31 March 2020 - 10:08 AM.

[soutie]

The hedge is a good thing me thinks even if slightly loss making me thinks....Efficiencies can be found to reduce the loss...

The big financiers that are into Sasol for Billions want some certainty & this gives them some...A small step in the right direction.

Going long on a re-test & STRONG HOLD of the R35 level...Fingers X'sd