After 17 trading days the standings are as follows.
GOOD Portfolio (Best Share Picks "Longs" by Program) +0,68%
BAD Portfolio (Top 40 Benchmark) -10,31%
UGLY Portfolio (Worst share picks "Shorts" by Program) -15,98%
This week saw the gap widen from 12% to 16,6% between the Long and the Short portfolio. Over the 17 trading days, a 16,6% out-performance is nearly 1% every day and this seems like a very large gap for such a short period of time. It must be a fluke, you might say! Yes, anyone can have a lucky run and produce such a result after publicly announcing how good their "program" is.
Well, lets look at the numbers then.
When the portfolios started on 13 February the 6 best shares selection had an average growth rate of +86% and the 6 worst shares a rate of -32%. That gives a total estimate of 118% out-performance in one year by the share selection program. The current figures on 7 March are +97,5% and -50,5% and equates to 148% out-performance over a year period. Between the two figures about 130% out-performance can be expected for this past period, but the Reward/Risk ratio improves the result by between 70-85% which puts us between 208-227%. But the Reward/Risk ratio compounds the result, with every trade where a share hits or reaches their upper or lower trading ranges. The current market volatility has caused more shares to reach their trading limits, activating trades to balance the portfolios Risk/Reward ratio, take profit and increase the overall performance. This is perfectly in line with the current results over the past 17 trading days.
The overall growth rate difference between Good,Bad and Ugly is also reflected in the current results.
With the current holdings and Reward/Risk ratios for the portfolios, I would expect the results to be slightly better for the next 3 weeks, but the situation changes constantly.
AMS came out with a sens announcement on Friday that caused their share price to drop by more than 14%. I would have preferred to change into another share straight away, but I have decided not to make decisions on my own judgement but rather let the program pick up what should be done. I do not want to taint the results by selling a share that the program still approves as a hold. The program has already downgraded its growth rating, as well as put a negative momentum index on this share.The program has also put it at a slight overexposure in the portfolio, but not as a sell yet.
The file attached has the 14 Feb Spreadsheet and the 7 March sheet to compare some of the data from the start with today's data.