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The GOOD, the BAD and the UGLY -Next Level Share Selection Program

Next Level The Good The Bad the Ugly Share selection the good the bad and the ugly Next Level Share Selection

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#1 Spell Jammer

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Posted Yesterday, 10:45 AM

Hi Spell Jammer

 

CFR (R96-80) is not at the best place to short, but had more downside potential than the other 2 shares in the short portfolio. It is also in the non-essential space, which makes sense given the current situation with Covid-19. 

 

It is showing a projected price of R87-00 in a years time (about -10% down from current levels) and is currently trading midway in its trading range of R73-40 to R124-00. This is a very wide trading range, as most shares currently are, and these are the ultimate trading prices.  

Thanks for the feedback. Much appreciated.


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#2 Pilotpilot

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Posted Yesterday, 08:01 AM

Hi Pilot, what does your model project CFR going to?

Hi Spell Jammer

 

CFR (R96-80) is not at the best place to short, but had more downside potential than the other 2 shares in the short portfolio. It is also in the non-essential space, which makes sense given the current situation with Covid-19. 

 

It is showing a projected price of R87-00 in a years time (about -10% down from current levels) and is currently trading midway in its trading range of R73-40 to R124-00. This is a very wide trading range, as most shares currently are, and these are the ultimate trading prices.  


Edited by Pilotpilot, Yesterday, 08:03 AM.

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#3 Spell Jammer

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Posted 31 March 2020 - 02:27 PM

Selling both positions in BVT @ R138-00 and GRT @ R11-86 for the short portfolio.

 

Buying CFR  @ R98-20.

 

or @ the closing price today if they don't trade

 

Both BVT and GRT is at their lower support levels and CFR has more downside risk than those two.

 

Hi Pilot, what does your model project CFR going to?


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#4 Pilotpilot

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Posted 31 March 2020 - 02:20 PM

Pretty impressive bud ....Nicely Done.

It appears as though the core mechanics of your system seem to be functioning & profitable.

The little you mention where the human element would come in also is interesting & if I understand correctly would of made an improvement in the returns.

Again nicely done....Enjoy the satisfaction of your hard slog & 000's of hrs getting to this point.

I hope the Missus is pleased also... :P

Thanks a lot Soutie!

 

No Missus here.......yet! :D  


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#5 Pilotpilot

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Posted 31 March 2020 - 09:33 AM

Selling both positions in BVT @ R138-00 and GRT @ R11-86 for the short portfolio.

 

Buying CFR  @ R98-20.

 

or @ the closing price today if they don't trade

 

Both BVT and GRT is at their lower support levels and CFR has more downside risk than those two.


Edited by Pilotpilot, 31 March 2020 - 09:34 AM.

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#6 soutie

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Posted 30 March 2020 - 09:32 AM

Pretty impressive bud ....Nicely Done.

It appears as though the core mechanics of your system seem to be functioning & profitable.

The little you mention where the human element would come in also is interesting & if I understand correctly would of made an improvement in the returns.

Again nicely done....Enjoy the satisfaction of your hard slog & 000's of hrs getting to this point.

I hope the Missus is pleased also... :P


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#7 Pilotpilot

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 03:58 PM

Thanks for the recent updates...

How are feeling regards your progress so far & has the program needed any tweeks....?

This last 3wks has given it a good work out... ;)

Your welcome Soutie....

 

I wasn't sure what to expect after 6 weeks, but I am still impressed by the out-performance (3,4% and 11.9%) of the 2 portfolios. On average it is 7,65% in 6 weeks and implies a 60+% out-performance over a year period and even higher when compounded.

 

The biggest obstacle with this challenge was that I needed to stay fully exposed. There were times where the "Long" portfolio where at the higher end of their trading range, and it did not warrant a full exposure with the downside risks. I also had no other shares to turn to, as all were showing a downward correction to come. The same happened with the "Short" portfolio at the start of this week (23/3/2020), where closing some positions and waiting for new opportunities would have made a lot of difference. I also had to do pairing trades, and most of the time the other shares were not bought or sold meeting all the criteria of a normal trade. But taking all into account with an implied yearly out-performance of 60%....I am very impressed and hopeful of a stronger performance for the 2nd part of this challenge. 

 

With regards to tweaking the program, yes I had to change one thing to accommodate the abnormal circumstances that followed after starting this challenge. 6 Days after starting, the TOP 40 fell by 34% in 4 weeks. I was mostly using support levels from the last 3-4 years and all of a sudden these levels were broken in quick succession and I had to use longer term data to identify older support levels from 10 years back. I added weekly long term support levels and I feel the program is now more rounded in making future predictions. I do like it even more and I am glad we are going through this correction/recession to see how it picks shares when it bottoms.

 

With Moody's downgrade, I do prefer the exposures of the portfolios, as the Rand will probably tank against the Dollar and the Long portfolio are mostly exposed to Rand hedged shares.


Edited by Pilotpilot, 28 March 2020 - 04:03 PM.

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#8 soutie

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Posted 27 March 2020 - 03:47 PM

Thanks for the recent updates...

How are feeling regards your progress so far & has the program needed any tweeks....?

This last 3wks has given it a good work out... ;)


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#9 Pilotpilot

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Posted 27 March 2020 - 02:15 PM

After 6 weeks, and halfway through the "Eat my Hat challenge" the standings are as follows

 

Best Share Picks "Longs" by Program  -18,9%
Top 40 Benchmark  -22,31%
Worst share picks "Shorts" by Program  -34,22%
 
I would have liked to see the gap widen further between the Best and Worst portfolios over the last 2 weeks, but the 15% out-performance is still a good result, considering the beating Gold and Platinum stocks took recently.
 
I am selling all DRD @  R10-85 and adding CLS @ R249-40 for the good portfolio. DRD is trading near its upper trading levels and CLS is the next best selection.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Attached Files


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#10 Pilotpilot

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Posted 26 March 2020 - 09:40 AM

Selling all GFI @ R108-50 and adding to SOL @ R24-50 for the Long Portfolio.


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#11 Pilotpilot

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Posted 25 March 2020 - 04:56 PM

Selling all APN and Buying PSG for the Short portfolio @ the Close this afternoon.

 

APN is showing upwards momentum and PSG has some more downside to come.


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#12 Pilotpilot

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Posted 25 March 2020 - 09:55 AM

Selling all CPI @ R1000 and Buying SOL @ R25-80 or at Closing today for the Long portfolio.


Edited by Pilotpilot, 25 March 2020 - 09:56 AM.

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#13 soutie

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Posted 25 March 2020 - 08:55 AM

Morning Pilot...

Give us a heads up before we can't meet up....

Cheers.


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#14 Pilotpilot

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Posted 11 March 2020 - 09:06 AM

Closing GLN position @ R33-00 and adding to DSY @ R103-00 or at the close today for the Short portfolio.


Edited by Pilotpilot, 11 March 2020 - 09:06 AM.

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#15 Pilotpilot

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Posted 10 March 2020 - 09:00 AM

Closing full positions in KIO and INL for the "Short" Portfolio and Adding GRT as the next position. All done at opening this morning.

 

 

 


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#16 nosh

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 02:22 PM

Hi Nosh

 

Yes, these figures are the expected growth figures from today using the last (Friday's) closing prices. 

 

They look a year ahead and give a growth projection.

 

It changes on a daily basis as the program picks up where buyers support and sellers resistance levels are.

Ok - Thanks


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#17 Pilotpilot

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 01:10 PM

do the figures represent potential upside/downside as at today's figures? or from when you started?

Hi Nosh

 

Yes, these figures are the expected growth figures from today using the last (Friday's) closing prices. 

 

They look a year ahead and give a growth projection.

 

It changes on a daily basis as the program picks up where buyers support and sellers resistance levels are.


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#18 nosh

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 12:10 PM

Attached are the Programs' selections for today according to future growth rate.

 

Gold price and Rand Dollar are the main drivers for the Gold shares, and the AMS troubles are helping NHM and IMP.

 

SOL and SNH still have the worst outlook. :(   

 

attachicon.gif9-3-2020 NL Share Selection.docx

do the figures represent potential upside/downside as at today's figures? or from when you started?


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#19 Pilotpilot

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Posted 09 March 2020 - 08:44 AM

Attached are the Programs' selections for today according to future growth rate.

 

Gold price and Rand Dollar are the main drivers for the Gold shares, and the AMS troubles are helping NHM and IMP.

 

SOL and SNH still have the worst outlook. :(   

 

Attached File  9-3-2020 NL Share Selection.docx   13.5KB   9 downloads


Edited by Pilotpilot, 09 March 2020 - 08:47 AM.

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#20 Pilotpilot

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Posted 07 March 2020 - 04:41 PM

After 17 trading days the standings are as follows.

 

GOOD Portfolio (Best Share Picks "Longs" by Program)  +0,68%
BAD Portfolio (Top 40 Benchmark)  -10,31%
UGLY Portfolio (Worst share picks "Shorts" by Program)  -15,98%
 
This week saw the gap widen from 12% to 16,6% between the Long and the Short portfolio. Over the 17 trading days, a 16,6% out-performance is nearly 1% every day and this seems like a very large gap for such a short period of time. It must be a fluke, you might say! Yes, anyone can have a lucky run and produce such a result after publicly announcing how good their "program" is.
 
Well, lets look at the numbers then. 
 
When the portfolios started on 13 February the 6 best shares selection had an average growth rate of +86% and the 6 worst shares a rate of -32%. That gives a total estimate of 118% out-performance in one year by the share selection program. The current figures on 7 March are +97,5% and -50,5% and equates to 148% out-performance over a year period. Between the two figures about 130% out-performance can be expected for this past period, but the Reward/Risk ratio improves the result by between 70-85% which puts us between 208-227%. But the Reward/Risk ratio compounds the result, with every trade where a share hits or reaches their upper or lower trading ranges. The current market volatility has caused more shares to reach their trading limits, activating trades to balance the portfolios Risk/Reward ratio, take profit and increase the overall performance. This is perfectly in line with the current results over the past 17 trading days.
 
The overall growth rate difference between Good,Bad and Ugly is also reflected in the current results. 
With the current holdings and Reward/Risk ratios for the portfolios, I would expect the results to be slightly better for the next 3 weeks, but the situation changes constantly.
 
AMS came out with a sens announcement on Friday that caused their share price to drop by more than 14%. I would have preferred to change into another share straight away, but I have decided not to make decisions on my own judgement but rather let the program pick up what should be done. I do not want to taint the results by selling a share that the program still approves as a hold. The program has already downgraded its growth rating, as well as put a negative momentum index on this share.The program has also put it at a slight overexposure in the portfolio, but not as a sell yet. 
 
The file attached has the 14 Feb Spreadsheet and the 7 March sheet to compare some of the data from the start with today's data.
 

Attached Files


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