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The GOOD, the BAD and the UGLY -Next Level Share Selection Program

Next Level The Good The Bad the Ugly Share selection the good the bad and the ugly Next Level Share Selection

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#1 Pilotpilot

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Posted 18 May 2020 - 09:25 AM

The Story and Inner workings of the Next Level Share Selection Program.

 

Below I will describe how the Share Selection Program came about and, without giving too much detail, I will give more detail on how stocks get selected and traded.

 

The first 13 years of my investment approach was mainly based on the teachings of Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham. Value investing was my main approach and shares were all picked on the basis of their valuations. At the end of 2007/8, I realized that certain shares just defy the laws of valuations. Some stocks were so overpriced by 2008 and continued to shoot into the stratosphere and then there were some that were seriously undervalued and continued to do so. Even with the collapse of the market at the end of 2008, and comparing it to the 2000 bubble, shares did not behave in correlation to their valuations. It was just baffling.

 

Being a quantitative analyst, I focused on why shares behave in this manner and it led me to the Trending Shares theory. Share prices behave in trend-like patterns (bullish or bearish) as maximum and minimum trading levels are determined, you can project the relative future of the share price, but shares do break these patterns and it happens more often than you think.

 

In 2015 my focus shifted on technical analysis and indicators to assist with the probability of a trend break or if the share price would stay inside its trend. I have used and tested a LOT of indicators, and have developed my own, and combinations of them, to determine a possible breakout or not.

 

Over the next few years, I analyzed 20 shares that have had amazing bull runs in the past. The best time to be invested in them, was just before the bull trend started and selling just before it ended. So these were the two areas I focused on. I wanted to know what they all had in common at this stage of their future/past bull trend.

 

In 2017 I created an indicator that was groundbreaking, but I only realized it in 2019, when used over much longer timeframes. This was to be the holy grail of all indicators. It takes so many factors into consideration and basically defines if the share is in an investable Bull or Bear trend. It is always right, but the duration and rate of change are determined by other factors. This is where I turned back to old Warren, Benjamin, and my Trending Shares theory. I also use some fundamental and other indicators I created to determine the growth potential of each share.

 

The Next Level Share Selection Program was implemented on a real portfolio in June 2019 until Jan 2020 and gained 55% in 6 months where the JSE lost about 2% over this period. Several other pseudo portfolios have been created since to allow back-testing and improve on the metrics used, all having exceptional results. A 3 month (Good "long", Bad "Benchmark" and Ugly "short") pseudo portfolio challenge was created from 12 Feb to 15 May 2020 to prove how good this program works and it showed in the results by outperforming either way. http://www.sharechat...ogram/?p=291754

 

Shares are now pre-selected using a screening program, inspired by Uncle Warren and Benjamin to select the best potential candidates to outperform the market. They are selected on a couple of criteria, mainly valuation, market Cap, performance, and lastly volatility, but the latter is of lesser importance but does project larger returns. The reverse screening criteria are used for selecting possible short positions.

 

Share data like PE, Dividends, share price, trend line data, and several indicator values are entered into the program, some on a daily basis and some on a weekly basis. The program firstly determines if this share is in a bull or bear trend and then calculates the growth rate with all the information, trend direction, and indicators supplied. This gives an indication over time of the performance of this share and projects a future price for each share, but this does not mean it is a good time to enter a trade.

 

The program then calculates with historical trend lines, the upper and lower trading ranges for each share. These limit values are influenced by several indicators that factor in the probability of this support or resistance line being broken or not. If a share price nears these support or resistance levels, several indicators give a momentum index that would influence a break, short-test, or a test of this level. The program uses these indicators to update where the most probable upper and lower trading limits are. It then uses the current share price to determine the position it holds within the trading range and creates a risk-reward ratio. The risk-reward ratio ultimately determines how profitable a trade will be and if it should be bought or sold.  

 

Each portfolio now has a risk and asset management monitor. A risk profile can be chosen for each portfolio from 1-8. Where 1 would be a super conservative investor with very few trades over a one year period and a 50% typical investment. A 4 rating would be similar to a Hedge Fund with long and short positions in the market and regular trading with a 200% gearing. An 8 would be an aggressive portfolio with gearing of up to 400% as its ultimate exposure.

 

To enter into a new trading position the risk management monitor calculates the overall risk /reward of the portfolio and will only identify shares that will improve the risk/reward as possible trades. Similarly, it will identify current holdings that have the worst risk/reward ratio and suggest orders to lower the risk on a continuous basis. Entry and exit prices are determined mainly by the risk/reward value but are also influenced by the overall market momentum, which would identify short term corrections and then suggest deeper buying levels and lower selling levels.

 

The risk management monitor will normally keep the portfolio at 50-75% of its maximum exposure rating, and leaving funds available for exceptional trades. When it gets to the higher end of its exposure, it will amplify possible entry prices as to improve risk/reward even further.

 

To avoid over-exposure in any one share, the risk monitor limits exposure to 20% of the maximum exposure for each portfolio type. There are many other logical features that also have an influence on pricing, returns, and exposures.

 

To conclude, the Next Level Share Selection Program has been developed to enter an investment in the right stock, at the right time, for the optimal duration and giving you the highest return you could possibly achieve.

With the Risk and Asset Management Monitor, it keeps your investments in the zone to create the Perfect Portfolio!

 

Regards 

 

 

Pilot

 


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#2 Snippit

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Posted 18 May 2020 - 09:20 AM

The performance over the last 3 months for the Old Mutual Gold Fund has been +55%

 

When the going gets tough is when gold gets going. But the volatility is not for the feint hearted.

 

 

 

 


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"To set unfamiliar people up for a fall is not really very honest, its just old-fashioned criminal"

  1. Sign here: https://www.5gspaceappeal.org/about/  Read this: Watson - Just another corrupt ANC beneficiary 
  2. Trusting strangers on an anonymous chat forum can be a risky business. Even more risky than the stock market.
  3. I have tried to warn the vulnerable, being those without adequate savvy: e.g.: https://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/sharechat-warning.html
  4. Vultures circle hereabouts. Give control and say goodbye. Learning links: http://swrict.blogsp...ader-links.html

 

 


#3 Pilotpilot

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Posted 16 May 2020 - 03:31 PM

End of 3 Month Challenge!

 

After 3 months, and the end of the challenge the portfolios look as follows.

 

Best Share Picks "Longs" by Program  +3,64%

Top 40 Benchmark  -11,41%

Worst share picks "Shorts" by Program  -32,25%

 

Luckily I will not have to eat my hat! As stated in my post 3 months ago, I have an 83,3% chance of getting it wrong. There were 6 ways it could end and they had to finish in this order, and they did.

 

Putting the end result into perspective I have compared my results to South African Equity funds, of which 84 falls in this category (SA Equity Funds). Interestingly over the past 3 months, the first 65 best performing funds in South Africa were Global or Worldwide funds. (but I'll get to that later) I had no global shares to choose from, so I can't compare it to them.

 

Of the 84 Funds, only 24 could beat the Top40 index and 60 performed worse than the index. The long portfolio, even after a poor last 2 weeks, beat all 84 Funds as none of them managed a profit over the 3 month period. Coronation's Industrial Fund performed the best and made a loss of -0,71%. They had a very large portion of their portfolio in Naspers (+35% exposure) and Prosus which both benefitted from their exposure to tencent.

 

When comparing the program's worst share portfolio to the worst Equity fund in South Africa over the 3 month period it was -32,25% vs -26,27%.  

 

84 Funds, all with different views on the market (-0,71% to -26,27%). That is a wide range, and not one of them could outperform the Long - or the Short Portfolio.

 

What makes this achievement even more impressive is that;

 

1) The program had to be fully exposed, where some funds have cash, bonds, or Foreign exposure which were more beneficial over this period.

2) My trades had to be done in pairs and on the same day and (buy and sell) had to happen simultaneously. (2 shares are hardly ever at the right level at the same time to buy one and sell another.)

3) 1% trading charges were used (0,5% each way) and 0,7% is more the norm.

4) No Dividends were taken into account, which has been added to the Funds and worked into the Top40 Index over the 3 months.

5) I only had about 40 shares I monitored (I am the only employee). These fund managers have the whole JSE to choose from and can select only the best from this wide selection. They have teams of people to help them make the best decisions and combine ideas to optimize returns. Its really an unfair advantage they have.

 

So what next and can it be improved?

 

This model really works and I have not even implemented the Risk/Reward and Asset Management system with these portfolios as I have with the small CFD account I am running. This is something I have been working long hours on over the past 2 months and is also a big contributor to performance. I have improved the weighting value of some indicators when I did back testing with the original portfolio on 12 February.   The portfolios as they stand currently has large reward/risk ratios and are still lagging the market and will outperform even more in the week to come. There are many areas that can improve returns, such as trading long and short positions in the same portfolio will improve returns dramatically. Monitoring and updating more shares will enable the program to cherry-pick more premium shares on offer and improve results. I would like to monitor in the region of about 120 shares soon. Because we are in a long term weakening Rand trend and proven by the fact that SA Offshore Funds took the first 65 spots for fund performance over the last 3 months, a Euro/Dollar/GBP  trading account would make absolute sense. Having your cash in another currency (which I will disclose later), and having access to the global market stocks and many more instruments to trade with will be the best way forward. And lastly gearing; this portfolio was at a gearing of 1, and increasing the gearing would scale the returns.  

 

I will explain the whole inner workings of the program, with the share selection and risk management addition in another post.

 

I also have a business proposition for 2 or maybe 3 investors for a minimum investment amount of R20000 each. I may not give financial advice, but business propositions are fine.

 

Mail me at perfectportfoliosa@gmail.com (I can only offer it to 2 and maybe a 3rd later) if you want more information.

 

Thank you for all the interest and all the responses, constructive and those less constructive.

 

Regards

 

  

 

Pilot

 

Ps. Attached are the final holdings and the 84 SA Equity Funds 

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Edited by Pilotpilot, 16 May 2020 - 03:33 PM.

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#4 Pilotpilot

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Posted 05 May 2020 - 11:28 AM

My goal is to use the Share selection program for a Hedge fund approach in future. So about 6 weeks ago I decided to test the other side of the spectrum. To see how far I could push this program and to test what it could do, especially with the Dynamic Risk Management Monitor I added. So I opened a CFD account and deposited R4000 on the first of May 2020.

 

I started straight away and used the best shares, that showed the highest growth figures; were near their lower support levels, and were showing the best Reward/Risk returns by the program. I tried to keep my gearing between 3-5:1 and tried to keep multiple of the best positions showed by the program (Long and Short).    

 

After just over a month the Program made R8943, returning a 223% growth in 32 days only on the closed positions. (There are profits of about R1500 on the current open positions)

 

My worst trade was shorting Sasol at R86-17. I posted it on the Sasol thread (see link below) and you can see it in my trading history attached. 

http://www.sharechat...l-sol/?p=291702

 

It was not a trade suggested by the program, as Sasol is some way from its upper resistance level, nor did it have a good risk reward ratio. I got Stopped out the next morning when it jumped to R95-00. Nevertheless, that is the lesson you learn when you think you're smarter than the program.

 

2 other trades did not go through as Limit trades and caused a loss and a lesser return on the other trade. Still the overall result is much better than expected.

 

I wanted to keep an aggressive approach, and in one instance the gearing went to 6.5:1 when 2 new orders both traded. I tried to keep some cash at all times and have it available for very good opportunities. The portfolio currently has 10 positions of which 8 are long positions (75% exposure) and 2 shorts (-25% exposure).

 

The program is currently showing a recovery by most shares being monitored.

 

I used a scale (1-10) that I created on my Risk manager for Portfolio management. A 1 would be Long term investment style (50% exposure), a 4 rating would be Hedge Fund type approach with typically 200% exposure, and I had the setting on 8 (350% exposure) for the duration of the past month. This is about as close to max exposure as I could go (allowing the gearing available to me). When getting to the higher exposure levels, the program always gives the worst (best) share to close out, to get the exposure and risk back to ideal levels.

 

Going forward I intend to create a more balanced approach with a 5 rating, but I am currently using a 6,5 for the month of May.

I will soon be creating a portfolio on an overseas platform where investors can connect their accounts to copy the trades on my account.

 

And for those wandering.......Sasol is not a short anymore!

 

Trade safe

 

 

Ps. the time on my trading history is London time and I think you should add an hour to get the right SA time.

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Edited by Pilotpilot, 05 May 2020 - 11:30 AM.

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#5 Pilotpilot

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Posted 03 May 2020 - 11:11 AM

I know this is a very long Video on youtube, but it's certainly worth the watch and could save you a boatload of money in the future.

 

It's about a professional trader (one of the best) that gives you some insights as to what's happening behind the scenes. I shared it with someone else, but I think everyone needs to see it.

 

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=L7G0OfJUON8

 

 

Enjoy!


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#6 Pilotpilot

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Posted 30 April 2020 - 10:51 PM

Selling two thirds (510 shares) of ANG shares @ R509-00 and buying 1/3 of the cash value into SSW @ R36-70, and 1/3 into SNH @ R1-18.

 

Although Anglogold is at all time high levels, and should continue to make new highs, the Risk/Reward is the worst of the Long positions held and should be adjusted to keep the risk profile at the optimal levels.

 

SSW is in the same sector and has a better Risk/Reward and SNH now has a lot of upside potential with little downside risk.

 

 

For the short portfolio I am selling all SHP shares @ R110-20 or at opening and Buying BHP Billiton @ R307-35 or at the open.

 

Shoprite does not have much more downside at these levels and BHP, although a rand hedge stock, show to have some downside potential. It is dependent on the Oil price for earnings, so it does make sense why the program is showing a negative future valuation.

 

Used closing price of R464-77 for ANG. It is much lower, but unfortunately I did not specify a change.


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#7 Pilotpilot

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Posted 29 April 2020 - 08:44 AM

Selling two thirds (510 shares) of ANG shares @ R509-00 and buying 1/3 of the cash value into SSW @ R36-70, and 1/3 into SNH @ R1-18.

 

Although Anglogold is at all time high levels, and should continue to make new highs, the Risk/Reward is the worst of the Long positions held and should be adjusted to keep the risk profile at the optimal levels.

 

SSW is in the same sector and has a better Risk/Reward and SNH now has a lot of upside potential with little downside risk.

 

 

For the short portfolio I am selling all SHP shares @ R110-20 or at opening and Buying BHP Billiton @ R307-35 or at the open.

 

Shoprite does not have much more downside at these levels and BHP, although a rand hedge stock, show to have some downside potential. It is dependent on the Oil price for earnings, so it does make sense why the program is showing a negative future valuation.

 

  


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#8 Pilotpilot

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Posted 26 April 2020 - 07:55 PM

After 10 weeks, the portfolios looks as follows.

 

Best Share Picks "Longs" by Program  +17,00%
Top 40 Benchmark  -12,59%
Worst share picks "Shorts" by Program  -31,89%
 
This week has seen another big move between the long and the short portfolios by nearly 9% to 48,9% over 10 weeks.
 
CLS was closed on the 23rd because of having the worst risk/reward ratio of the positions held in the Long portfolio. A new "Dynamic Risk/Reward Monitor" has been added to the program recently. This is helping to identify the the worst (R/R) positions and replacing them with the next best available share and calculating at what level to do the swap trade. This has improved the overall performance for this week even further.  
 
I am satisfied with the out- and under-performance of the portfolios and their overall Risk/Reward ratios are both superior to the Top40, which should see further improvement over the remaining 2 weeks. 
 
I have started a CFD trading account on the 1st of May, that does long and short trades, and runs with the Dynamic Risk Reward Monitor. It has done triple digit growth figures thus far and currently has 8 positions. This will be the avenue I will continue with in future, as this will give the best returns going forward. There is an Investment opportunity, where Investors of nearly any size can benefit from this program.
 
I'll keep everyone updated on this. 
 
Until week 11
 
Stay inside and safe

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#9 Pilotpilot

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Posted 24 April 2020 - 04:05 AM

For all the Steinhoff holders.

 

Yesterday, I had a look at my "What's-going-on-here-index?" It's actually my momentum indicator, and has always been my "go-to" signal that something is up with a share. (See table attached)

 

I could understand that Sibanye and DRD had such high momentum figures, with the Gold price and the weak Rand playing in their favor. Even BTI is showing some upwards momentum because it is a defensive stock in this part of the cycle, but to see Steinhoff with a figure that even surpasses all the Gold shares? That is not a value I expected and my gut says something is up here. That is a boatload of momentum!

 

Who knows......... maybe some people had a sneak peek at their financials, or maybe a couple of figures got written on a tissue and did not get sneezed upon.....

 

Just leaving it out there...

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Edited by Pilotpilot, 24 April 2020 - 04:06 AM.

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#10 Pilotpilot

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 09:32 AM

Selling all CLS @ R267-70 and adding a new position in Steinhoff (SNH) @ R1-16 for the long portfolio.

 

CLS has done well so far for the long portfolio, but does not have that much more upside potential. It's only about 5% exposure, so not a big shift in the portfolio. 

 

SNH has been trading in a pretty close trading range of late, and has strong support at R1-03, which is the bottom of its trading range and its ultimate buying price. The Reward to Risk ratio is extremely good at current levels. I did want to trade it 2 days ago  :rolleyes:, nevertheless, its still a very good buy.

 

With the rand weakening at an alarming rate recently, this makes sense why SNH has such strong support as they have a lot of assets abroad.

Changing the buying price for SNH to R1-19.


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#11 Pilotpilot

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 08:28 AM

Selling all CLS @ R267-70 and adding a new position in Steinhoff (SNH) @ R1-16 for the long portfolio.

 

CLS has done well so far for the long portfolio, but does not have that much more upside potential. It's only about 5% exposure, so not a big shift in the portfolio. 

 

SNH has been trading in a pretty close trading range of late, and has strong support at R1-03, which is the bottom of its trading range and its ultimate buying price. The Reward to Risk ratio is extremely good at current levels. I did want to trade it 2 days ago  :rolleyes:, nevertheless, its still a very good buy.

 

With the rand weakening at an alarming rate recently, this makes sense why SNH has such strong support as they have a lot of assets abroad.


Edited by Pilotpilot, 23 April 2020 - 08:29 AM.

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#12 Pilotpilot

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 08:45 AM

Just a quick Covid-19 update.

 

Worldwide the spread of the virus has dropped to 3,5% growth per day. This has been as high as 12%, and this is a catastrophic figure if nothing was done about it.

 

My previous estimate was that we might have less than 5 million reported cases worldwide and this could still be reached, but would be a better case scenario.

 

My new projections estimate we could end with between 4,8mil and 6mil reported cases. It all still depends on new flare-ups and the Southern Hemisphere's winter to come, so these figures could change. We should get to less than 100 new reported cases  around early October, and having less than 10 new cases at the end of November 2020.

 

We could see the no new reported cases at the end of 2020 or early January 2021 and hopefully close the chapter on this pandemic.....

 

Stay safe

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#13 Angazi

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 03:02 PM

Hi Angazi

 

I just updated all the shares on the watchlist....so this is fresh news....  :)

 

MTN is showing a new projected price of R34-00 and a trading range between R26-85 and R74-44.

 

I do believe we will test that bottom support (R26-85), as we have not formed a bottom, nor is there any divergence or momentum change yet. But time will tell.

 

Thanks very much... taking a hammering today


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#14 Pilotpilot

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 02:48 PM

What's your take on MTN today?

 

Hi Angazi

 

I just updated all the shares on the watchlist....so this is fresh news....  :)

 

MTN is showing a new projected price of R34-00 and a trading range between R26-85 and R74-44.

 

I do believe we will test that bottom support (R26-85), as we have not formed a bottom, nor is there any divergence or momentum change yet. But time will tell.


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#15 Angazi

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 02:21 PM

Hi Soutie

 

You did good so far.... ;)

 

I updated all the data on a lot of shares and checked MTN in particular. The program is still showing downside but not as bad as was predicted. It still shows downside but only -28% from  the R51-80 level. That gives a target price of around R37-30.

 

Its trading range is between R31-64 and R79-23. It seems like it will not go down to the low levels of 23 March (R29-50), and should find support a bit higher at R31-50.

 

It might not be as rapid as the previous downturn, but we are still in a larger downtrend and in a bear trend.

 

MTN has not really shown a bottom forming, so I'm am still bearish on this one.

 

I have not gone through any financials or news to support the downside, but with Covid-19 and the slowing economy, their earnings should be impacted too.

 

What's your take on MTN today?


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#16 Pilotpilot

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Posted 16 April 2020 - 09:39 AM

After 9 weeks, the GOOD, BAD and UGLY portfolios looks as follows.

 

GOOD- Best Share Picks "Longs" by Program  +10,02%
BAD- Top 40 Benchmark  -15,08%
UGLY- Worst share picks "Shorts" by Program  -30,18%
 
Taking an overall view of the shares being monitored, it seems to be much more of the same. The Rand will be weakening at an enormous rate, as will the Gold price be increasing. As mentioned in an earlier post, the Rand should hit the top of its trading range at around R22-51 (R22-65 currently). The Gold price should reach the Top of its range within 1-3 months, given the growth rate.
 
Other shares of interest, that have now shown value, are Aspen and Steinhoff. Both have now turned into positive growth figures and Steinhoff has even triggered a buying signal, with a very good risk /reward at its lower trading range. It is also a Rand hedge share and looks to be gaining a lot of momentum recently.
 
I am very pleased with the out- and under-performance of the portfolios, as it is increasing as time continues. Ascendis Health (ASC) is now the Nr1 share in the long portfolio, with excellent growth and risk/reward projections and PSG seems to be the ugly duckling in the Short portfolio. 
 
Until week 10
Stay safe
 

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#17 Pilotpilot

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Posted 16 April 2020 - 06:40 AM

Closing all IMP shares @ R119-70 and adding to the ASC position @ R1-32 for the Long (Good) portfolio.

 

IMP still has some upside but is now trading halfway in its trading range with the worst risk reward in the portfolio. ASC has a much better Risk/Reward ratio and the highest growth rate.

 

As ASC is the best selection by the program, it also needs to be the largest holding, as to represent the program's guidance best.

 

 


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#18 soutie

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 11:42 AM

Cool bud thanks....I'll be out long before it hits the early R40's

Thanks for all the other input also.


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#19 Pilotpilot

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 11:36 AM

Hi Pilot..

1st off I'm long MTN from this morning's bounce off R48.70 area & it was a convincing 1 for me...

I don't see much more downside...My reasoning is purely T/analysis volume & price action at levels the above becoming a major 1.

My stop will be a close below R47.65.

Maybe I'm missing something....?

 

Hi Soutie

 

You did good so far.... ;)

 

I updated all the data on a lot of shares and checked MTN in particular. The program is still showing downside but not as bad as was predicted. It still shows downside but only -28% from  the R51-80 level. That gives a target price of around R37-30.

 

Its trading range is between R31-64 and R79-23. It seems like it will not go down to the low levels of 23 March (R29-50), and should find support a bit higher at R31-50.

 

It might not be as rapid as the previous downturn, but we are still in a larger downtrend and in a bear trend.

 

MTN has not really shown a bottom forming, so I'm am still bearish on this one.

 

I have not gone through any financials or news to support the downside, but with Covid-19 and the slowing economy, their earnings should be impacted too.


Edited by Pilotpilot, 15 April 2020 - 11:37 AM.

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#20 Lionelza1

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 11:16 PM

Yea....keeping up with a 140% per day uptrend is probably not going to happen. If we do 10% everyday for 2 weeks, I won't complain.


Yup
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