125 replies to this topic

[Pilotpilot]

Thanks for the recent updates...

How are feeling regards your progress so far & has the program needed any tweeks....?

This last 3wks has given it a good work out...

Your welcome Soutie....

 

I wasn't sure what to expect after 6 weeks, but I am still impressed by the out-performance (3,4% and 11.9%) of the 2 portfolios. On average it is 7,65% in 6 weeks and implies a 60+% out-performance over a year period and even higher when compounded.

 

The biggest obstacle with this challenge was that I needed to stay fully exposed. There were times where the "Long" portfolio where at the higher end of their trading range, and it did not warrant a full exposure with the downside risks. I also had no other shares to turn to, as all were showing a downward correction to come. The same happened with the "Short" portfolio at the start of this week (23/3/2020), where closing some positions and waiting for new opportunities would have made a lot of difference. I also had to do pairing trades, and most of the time the other shares were not bought or sold meeting all the criteria of a normal trade. But taking all into account with an implied yearly out-performance of 60%....I am very impressed and hopeful of a stronger performance for the 2nd part of this challenge. 

 

With regards to tweaking the program, yes I had to change one thing to accommodate the abnormal circumstances that followed after starting this challenge. 6 Days after starting, the TOP 40 fell by 34% in 4 weeks. I was mostly using support levels from the last 3-4 years and all of a sudden these levels were broken in quick succession and I had to use longer term data to identify older support levels from 10 years back. I added weekly long term support levels and I feel the program is now more rounded in making future predictions. I do like it even more and I am glad we are going through this correction/recession to see how it picks shares when it bottoms.

 

With Moody's downgrade, I do prefer the exposures of the portfolios, as the Rand will probably tank against the Dollar and the Long portfolio are mostly exposed to Rand hedged shares.

Edited by Pilotpilot, 28 March 2020 - 04:03 PM.

[soutie]

Thanks for the recent updates...

How are feeling regards your progress so far & has the program needed any tweeks....?

This last 3wks has given it a good work out...

[Pilotpilot]

After 6 weeks, and halfway through the "Eat my Hat challenge" the standings are as follows

 

Best Share Picks "Longs" by Program  -18,9%

Top 40 Benchmark  -22,31%

Worst share picks "Shorts" by Program  -34,22%

 

I would have liked to see the gap widen further between the Best and Worst portfolios over the last 2 weeks, but the 15% out-performance is still a good result, considering the beating Gold and Platinum stocks took recently.

 

I am selling all DRD @  R10-85 and adding CLS @ R249-40 for the good portfolio. DRD is trading near its upper trading levels and CLS is the next best selection.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Attached Files

•  NEXT LEVEL SHARE SELECTION-GOOD-BAD-UGLY 27-3-2020S.xlsx   28.33KB   12 downloads

[Pilotpilot]

Selling all GFI @ R108-50 and adding to SOL @ R24-50 for the Long Portfolio.

[Pilotpilot]

Selling all APN and Buying PSG for the Short portfolio @ the Close this afternoon.

 

APN is showing upwards momentum and PSG has some more downside to come.

[Pilotpilot]

Selling all CPI @ R1000 and Buying SOL @ R25-80 or at Closing today for the Long portfolio.

Edited by Pilotpilot, 25 March 2020 - 09:56 AM.

[soutie]

Morning Pilot...

Give us a heads up before we can't meet up....

Cheers.

[Pilotpilot]

Closing GLN position @ R33-00 and adding to DSY @ R103-00 or at the close today for the Short portfolio.

Edited by Pilotpilot, 11 March 2020 - 09:06 AM.

[Pilotpilot]

Closing full positions in KIO and INL for the "Short" Portfolio and Adding GRT as the next position. All done at opening this morning.

 

 

 

[nosh]

Hi Nosh

 

Yes, these figures are the expected growth figures from today using the last (Friday's) closing prices. 

 

They look a year ahead and give a growth projection.

 

It changes on a daily basis as the program picks up where buyers support and sellers resistance levels are.

Ok - Thanks

[Pilotpilot]

do the figures represent potential upside/downside as at today's figures? or from when you started?

Hi Nosh

 

Yes, these figures are the expected growth figures from today using the last (Friday's) closing prices. 

 

They look a year ahead and give a growth projection.

 

It changes on a daily basis as the program picks up where buyers support and sellers resistance levels are.

[nosh]

Attached are the Programs' selections for today according to future growth rate.

 

Gold price and Rand Dollar are the main drivers for the Gold shares, and the AMS troubles are helping NHM and IMP.

 

SOL and SNH still have the worst outlook.    

 

9-3-2020 NL Share Selection.docx

do the figures represent potential upside/downside as at today's figures? or from when you started?

[Pilotpilot]

Attached are the Programs' selections for today according to future growth rate.

 

Gold price and Rand Dollar are the main drivers for the Gold shares, and the AMS troubles are helping NHM and IMP.

 

SOL and SNH still have the worst outlook.    

 

 9-3-2020 NL Share Selection.docx   13.5KB   10 downloads

Edited by Pilotpilot, 09 March 2020 - 08:47 AM.

[Pilotpilot]

After 17 trading days the standings are as follows.

 

GOOD Portfolio (Best Share Picks "Longs" by Program)  +0,68%

BAD Portfolio (Top 40 Benchmark)  -10,31%

UGLY Portfolio (Worst share picks "Shorts" by Program)  -15,98%

 

This week saw the gap widen from 12% to 16,6% between the Long and the Short portfolio. Over the 17 trading days, a 16,6% out-performance is nearly 1% every day and this seems like a very large gap for such a short period of time. It must be a fluke, you might say! Yes, anyone can have a lucky run and produce such a result after publicly announcing how good their "program" is.

 

Well, lets look at the numbers then. 

 

When the portfolios started on 13 February the 6 best shares selection had an average growth rate of +86% and the 6 worst shares a rate of -32%. That gives a total estimate of 118% out-performance in one year by the share selection program. The current figures on 7 March are +97,5% and -50,5% and equates to 148% out-performance over a year period. Between the two figures about 130% out-performance can be expected for this past period, but the Reward/Risk ratio improves the result by between 70-85% which puts us between 208-227%. But the Reward/Risk ratio compounds the result, with every trade where a share hits or reaches their upper or lower trading ranges. The current market volatility has caused more shares to reach their trading limits, activating trades to balance the portfolios Risk/Reward ratio, take profit and increase the overall performance. This is perfectly in line with the current results over the past 17 trading days.

 

The overall growth rate difference between Good,Bad and Ugly is also reflected in the current results. 

With the current holdings and Reward/Risk ratios for the portfolios, I would expect the results to be slightly better for the next 3 weeks, but the situation changes constantly.

 

AMS came out with a sens announcement on Friday that caused their share price to drop by more than 14%. I would have preferred to change into another share straight away, but I have decided not to make decisions on my own judgement but rather let the program pick up what should be done. I do not want to taint the results by selling a share that the program still approves as a hold. The program has already downgraded its growth rating, as well as put a negative momentum index on this share.The program has also put it at a slight overexposure in the portfolio, but not as a sell yet. 

 

The file attached has the 14 Feb Spreadsheet and the 7 March sheet to compare some of the data from the start with today's data.

 

Attached Files

•  NEXT LEVEL SHARE SELECTION-GOOD-BAD-UGLY 7-3-2020S.xlsx   50.39KB   8 downloads

[Pilotpilot]

Holy cow Boet.....Gone into auction mode now.....

 

Ye.....explosion and sens announcement was the cause of the drop in price.

 

But the portfolio had that covered......double the exposure on Impala and Northam. Best out-performance day yet.

[soutie]

True, but they still don't know what I know  . And it is 6% when the market went down 5%.  

 

Well done to you with 6+% on your portfolio and Harmony! Very nice!

 

My best buy of the month is long AMS @ R1180-00.

Holy cow Boet.....Gone into auction mode now.....

[Pilotpilot]

After 3 weeks the standings are as follows

 

GOOD Portfolio (Best Share Picks "Longs" by Program)  +0,63%

BAD Portfolio (Top 40 Benchmark)  -8,62%

UGLY Portfolio (Worst share picks "Shorts" by Program)  -14,00%

 

 

Selling 700 DRD shares @ R11-50 and buying GFI @ R105-20 or at closing should they not trade. This is purely to improve the overall Reward/Risk ratio for the Good Portfolio. DRD has a 0.8 Reward/Risk ratio and GFI has a 3.8 Reward/Risk ratio. They are in the same sector, but DRD has run faster and GFI has more upside potential.

 

 

Also closing the whole NED position and adding to DSY at the close this afternoon for the Short portfolio. Also done for the same reasons. NED has a 0.2 Reward/Risk ratio and DSY has a 2,6 Reward/Risk ratio to the downside.

Attached Files

•  NEXT LEVEL SHARE SELECTION-GOOD-BAD-UGLY 6-3-2020S.xlsx   29.11KB   2 downloads

Edited by Pilotpilot, 06 March 2020 - 09:00 AM.

[Pilotpilot]

I had to add all the data of the Dow, Top 40 and Hang Seng indexes into my program to see if they really are so similar or what the differences are. The results were not what I thought.

 

I was thinking that China is the bad apple, and when the Dow sneezes we catch a cold, and when the Dow catches a cold, we will get pneumonia.

 

But after the program crunched the numbers to give all the stats, the trading range for all three looked very similar, Dow 23,2%, Top40 22,1%, and HS 21,2%. The current upper trading limits are Dow - 29252, Top40 - 52078, and HS - 28992 and all 3 indexes are between 9,5-10,5% from the upper limits and 13,7%, 12,2% and 10,8% respectively from our lower trading levels. The Dow closed up 4,5% last night (4/3/2020) and this is the reason why they are higher in their trading range and the other two should move in the same direction today.

 

The Dow is the only share still to be in an official bull trend, however, the program gives a future Bear index for all three and the Dow has the most negative momentum currently of the three. So this begs the question.....what are the expected values and growth figures for these indexes in a year's time.

 

In 1 year the average expected values are: Dow 22352 (-16,3%), Top40 39100 (-17,5%) and the HS 21700 (-17,3%). The similarities are just too close to ignore in this instance. This is for sure a global trend and these three indexes are in the same boat and have exactly the same storm to deal with. So, our fate, once again is in the hands of the international investment giants.

 

 

 

Are there other shares, indexes, or commodities that could still give a return? Yes, there are. If you would want to receive all the information on 50 shares and indexes, their buying and selling levels, taking short or long positions, projected growth figures, trend, high/low level trading range etc., message me or mail me at perfectportfoliosa@gmail.com 

 

[Milo]

yes i was looking at the 2 charts from beginning February 2020. They both look the same a waterfall and then a dead cat bounce and now maybe down again to bear. 

[Pilotpilot]

The top 40 is following the Dow Jones. The charts look exactly the same.

 

I thought the Dow was still bullish, and it is still above a 10 year support level. The program puts it in bullish trend, but only just, and a future bear index. It gives a projected value of 22130 over the next year.

 

So the Dow is basically in the same situation as us, but it has a better target price. The Dow will have a cold and we will get pneumonia.