CFD Trades - Trending Shares

Attached is Spread sheet for tomorrow. With some new orders.

My computer at home is in for repair (hard drive is toast).

Updated at work, but going home.

Till later

P

Tomorrow we have support @ R19-73 on PPC (see chart attached), but there was a mini break of trend after the close today.

I am going to close half the position @ R19-90 (which it should test, if turning bearish tomorrow), and adding a stop / Loss for the other half @ R19-58.

It seems like the best option at the moment, with the other option being to close out the whole position @ R19-90. 

There is about 35% chance that it would break R20-00 tomorrow, and then it will be a strong break. I have one indicator that has crossed with a 65% success rate, but if it doesn't confirm, the upside is usually much stronger.

I will post the spread sheet tomorrow morning.

19.75... Hold the line! cannot afford this break

This is like a back and forth scrum ... there we go bulls pushing back!! ( I hate the bulls by the way sharks fan    )

 Ye , me too. Stormers here!!

 Put your backs into it Bulls!!!

This is like a back and forth scrum ... there we go bulls pushing back!! ( I hate the bulls by the way sharks fan    )

Bears are winning so far

 Put your backs into it Bulls!!!

Bears are winning so far

Big Bulls vs Bears battle @ R19-85 on PPC. Support vs Resistance and we will see a break. 

More @ R19-81

Edited by Pilotpilot, 03 June 2015 - 04:18 PM.

Big Bulls vs Bears battle @ R19-85 on PPC. Support vs Resistance and we will see a break. 

For the PPC guys

I still feel very positive about PPC and we just tested the R19-67 support of the old resistance line that PPC broke 3 days ago.

It nearly always does that and now I feel more at ease after a good test. Its still all within the trading range.

See the chart attached

Just a quick afternoon update on the Portfolio, after closing AGL, BVT and SAB earlier today.

Still need to close IMP and might change the exit price later today.

P

Hey Pilot,

 

I see you still have PPC on your list.

 

Its at the end of a wedge, do you think this will remain bullish? 

 

I know a retest will confirm it after it breaks.

Ye, I am watching it right in the end of that wedge. The decision will probably come with closing price.

I am still confident it should break out the top. Even a R19-92 still shows bullish on my charts, but I would like to see a R20-01 + close.

All eyes on EOH drop, going to ride the wave up when it recovers 

Hey Pilot,

I see you still have PPC on your list.

Its at the end of a wedge, do you think this will remain bullish? 

I know a retest will confirm it after it breaks.

Hey Pilot, great testimony from you my bro. Very encouraging to most of us.

 

I've no doubt you'll make it big trading full time!

 

(meanwhile I'll be busy building that 8 figure number, to buy the system  )

  Thanks man!

Morning Gents

 

Just to give you bit of background.

 

I have been investing since 1994 and was fascinated with the Stock Exchange (and I still am). I have a strong maths background and wanted to figure out why and when to buy shares. Warren Buffet , had me hooked on value investing by 2005, but I was a big fan of technical analysis. So since 2006 I backed only value shares and used technical analysis to determine good entry points. I started using SSF in 2008 to increase my exposure, but at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 I lost everything. I was holding shares like BRN, OML, SHF and TKG. In those days it was the best value I could find on the market, and had I held them till today, I would have done well. But if there is panic and fear in the market, you can hold the best of shares, they will get smash. And when you think its the bottom.... they get smashed some more. 19 and 20 February 2009 was the end for me when OML dropped 7,3% and 5,8% in succession, after dropping from my R8-00 entry to R7-00 before the 19th. Not happy times, to say the least.

 

Now on to the better news. The lessons I learned from this experience, has changed my view on the way the market is moving. Fundamentals wasn't moving it, in the short term anyway. So my interest changed to reading up everything on market cycles and trends, which shares do best in which part of the cycle. It is all good to know this, but when is the start and when is the beginning and when do the certain sector start moving. It was very vague. And that took me right back to my Technical analysis. Three years ago I was full time into technical analysis and tried about 100 different technical indicators. Using them in different ways, and added % chance of success on each of them. Most of them don't work on their own effectively, but I had about 15 that worked the best.

 

The last year my focus swung to what happens right before an uptrend or downtrend and I found that certain (modified) indicators do the same thing nearly every time a new trend starts (about 85% success). In March this year I ran preliminary data on Jan, Feb and March of 2015 and came to the astonishing conclusion, of doing 67%, 80% and 55% in each of those months (with gearing of course). Around 10-20% without gearing.

 

My next step was to prove it with real trading scenarios and thus the thread, I started here on sharechat. I am in the process of leaving my current job, and to pursue trading shares full time. 

 

If someone can come up with a descent 8 digit amount for my model, I would sell it.   But I don't want to jeopardise the sale of my model by giving all the information that I have. 

 

 

I do use RSI indicators, Divergence indicators (I developed myself), STS indicators (modified), MFI indicator (modified), sma's and wma's. Most of these indicators values have been changed to give smoother and more accurate trigger points. Some of the short term Indicators need to do the same thing at the same time, to validate a trend changes, but then I need to see a trend break on the RSI indicators as well. (Not on the graph). I would sometimes say a trend has broken, but it has broken on the RSI and not on the graph. 

 

Lastly, I would go to the graph, and especially with big formation breaks, it confirms the new trend and the break. Then a new trend has started (most of the time)

 

I know I'm not giving you a lot of information, but hope this will help. 

 

In the meantime, I will be posting on here, to share my view. Thanks to everyone for all the interest!

 

Happy Trading

 

 

Pilot

Hey Pilot, great testimony from you my bro. Very encouraging to most of us.

I've no doubt you'll make it big trading full time!

(meanwhile I'll be busy building that 8 figure number, to buy the system  )

Morning everyone,

Attached is the updated spread sheet.

I couldn't do a full review of all the shares, but did add 2 new orders. (AGL and LON longs)

Also closing 4 of the running shares. Seems like the resources are gaining traction and there is no more shorts in this sector, and the longs are becoming more.

I will add some orders during the day, If they triggered.

Enjoy your day

P

I will give a short update tomorrow morning.
Pilot

And hopefully a longs update as well, to comfort us non-traders.. 

Sorry, now I see, I did add it! 

hahaha, i am a KIO fan so noticed your trade on sheet