35854 replies to this topic

[Beorn]

My thoughts are that regardless of what happens in Ukraine, the Zar will keep the Alsi up, I think we might get close to 1% up tomorrow.
Not that I want it, I just think we might see a short squeeze.

[K~~]

Care to disclose you current running position: short or long (level and sizing (exposure) is irrelevant, but would like to know since when)?
 
Ta.

Cash since last week before the divi.

[delta66]

Tomorrow the trend will reveal itself, if the US comes back overnight ALSI shorts going to get caught with their pants down!

 

Roll on Tuesday!

 

A

doubtful we'll see any strong comeback on US overnight...watching for now. 

[fabes]

$ $ $    Patience paid off.... and......SHORT THE BOUNCES!!!!

Good doing B...you certainly have hit a purple patch...well done

Wow. Alsi is holding onto these levels. Anyone have an idea why or what's it gonna take to break down? I got my bear suit out.

Sent from my GT-P3100 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[HDB]

$ $ $    Patience paid off.... and......SHORT THE BOUNCES!!!!

[Sunesis]

Russia has given Ukraine forces an ultimatum to surrender by 3 am GMT or face "storm" 

 

12 hours from now we will see fireworks if Putin puts his foot in it.

 

 

[Vertebrae]

Day trade has no fear, no joy, no con-science.

No accounting, no planning, no waiting, no avoiding

Risk management is conducted by the clock in seconds

Direction at entry is in. Anyway that you want it.

Direction at exit is out.

No religion required.

It is dam near thoughtless, mechanical. Moronic

This approach is the nearest thing to the original pre-big bang era that it should be called why-fidelity

 

[Argento]

 

After hours runs the show, all the buyers can clap hands for themselves.

We are brave, we thrive on risk

 

 

Haha gonna play this clip to my wife, excellent!!

 

Tomorrow the trend will reveal itself, if the US comes back overnight ALSI shorts going to get caught with their pants down!

 

Roll on Tuesday!

 

Huge inverted H&S establishing itself in the markets for the euphoria phase c'mon.....!

 

A

[Lekkerry]

Is IG offline (since 16:50)? The candles are whack since then, in relation to the rest of the day.

Attached Files

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Edited by Lekkerry, 03 March 2014 - 05:05 PM.

[Lekkerry]

Thanks.

 

... That 900 would be burning my wallet by now (cash-in)! 

 

 

Short @ 400, 600 900 since the 17th

[HDB]

Looking at it in theory:

 

At expiration day the price of the future reflect the value of the underlying asset (in this case equities).  Thus, before expiration and during the lifetime of the contract, the factors that affects its price are:

 

1. Spot price of underlying(s)

2. Risk free interest rate

3. Dividends

4. Time to expiration

 

In theory, future prices are calculated by F= S [1 + ( i - d ) x t/365 where S is the spot price of the underlying (i and d are risk free rate and dividends)

 

I can't see how a derivative determines the price of the underlying?

 

Your theory is absolutely correct for share/equity derivatives...But sorry not for Alsi!!

[Lekkerry]

Short, since this PM.

 

Care to disclose you current running position: short or long (level and sizing (exposure) is irrelevant, but would like to know since when)?

 

Ta.

[Sunesis]

Im still short, but the us so red jakes me worry for afterhours moves.

After hours runs the show, all the buyers can clap hands for themselves.

We are brave, we thrive on risk

 

[Lekkerry]

Care to disclose you current running position: short or long (level and sizing (exposure) is irrelevant, but would like to know since when)?

 

Ta.

[Vertebrae]

UKRAINE PM SAYS BELIEVES RUSSIAN TROOPS WON'T INVADE E. UKRAINE. Because they are there already

 

Markets love this.

 

LOL! 

[AJS]

AJS thanks for that...but im pretty certain alsi future price will determine the underlying share price!! In fact im certain about that!!

MM( be it JSE or IG ) checks his risk and buys/sells underlying to cover!!

 

Looking at it in theory:

 

At expiration day the price of the future reflect the value of the underlying asset (in this case equities).  Thus, before expiration and during the lifetime of the contract, the factors that affects its price are:

 

1. Spot price of underlying(s)

2. Risk free interest rate

3. Dividends

4. Time to expiration

 

In theory, future prices are calculated by F= S [1 + ( i - d ) x t/365 where S is the spot price of the underlying (i and d are risk free rate and dividends)

 

I can't see how a derivative determines the price of the underlying?

[Beorn]

Jakes I think its the opposite...Alsi bought/ sold  first and then underlying equity bought by the market maker to hedge!!

I still think price is determined by MM using overseas algos even during the normal day trading hours!!  But I could be wrong..

Argentino whats your take?

 

Jake reason I asked is that my calculations shows ALSI overpriced by a good 250 points compared to underlyings!

 

The future normally swings within about 300 points higher to 300 points lower.

 

There cant be a MM that influences the Alsi future, only very big players that, if they think its priced wrong, they buy/sell accordingly. and so moves the price in the direction they think.

[HDB]

The ALSI Future price is made up of the movement in the underlying.  I.e when the underlying change, the index and hence the future will also change. Not the other way around.  Market makers add their spreads so there will be a difference.  As to how IG's algo work afterhours, who knows! I know you posted the reasoning for how it is derived, but for all we know they can very well do as they please after hours.

 

If you trade a pure ALSI future through a broker, then the price you pay is the price the actual future trades at.

 

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

AJS thanks for that...but im pretty certain alsi future price will determine the underlying share price!! In fact im certain about that!!

MM( be it JSE or IG ) checks his risk and buys/sells underlying to cover!!

Edited by HDB, 03 March 2014 - 04:20 PM.

[AJS]

Jakes I think its the opposite...Alsi bought/ sold  first and then underlying equity bought by the market maker to hedge!!

I still think price is determined by MM using overseas algos even during the normal day trading hours!!  But I could be wrong..

Argentino whats your take?

 

Jake reason I asked is that my calculations shows ALSI overpriced by a good 250 points compared to underlyings!!

 

The ALSI Future price is made up of the movement in the underlying.  I.e when the underlying change, the index and hence the future will also change. Not the other way around.  Market makers add their spreads so there will be a difference.  As to how IG's algo work afterhours, who knows! I know you posted the reasoning for how it is derived, but for all we know they can very well do as they please after hours.

 

If you trade a pure ALSI future through a broker, then the price you pay is the price the actual future trades at.

 

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Edited by AJS, 03 March 2014 - 04:15 PM.

[HDB]

As far as I am aware, the Alsi future on the safex board is supply and demand driven. There are obviously market forces that keep this in line with the underlying equities.

For every buyer on Alsi future, there has to be a seller.

Jakes I think its the opposite...Alsi bought/ sold  first and then underlying equity bought by the market maker to hedge!!

I still think price is determined by MM using overseas algos even during the normal day trading hours!!  But I could be wrong..

Argentino whats your take?

 

Jake reason I asked is that my calculations shows ALSI overpriced by a good 250 points compared to underlyings!!

Edited by HDB, 03 March 2014 - 04:10 PM.