35854 replies to this topic

[Sunesis]

A look @ the performance of the Nikkei, S&P and J200 against each other. (Monthly chart)

 

Interesting notes on the 3 previous Nikkei "crashes" 

 

• 1996 It started with the Nikkei on 28 June and thank's to the ".com bubble" the S&P just keep going north while the J200 was making new high's till 31 July '97 and only then followed the Nikkei downwards.

 

• 2000 The decline on the Nikkei started on 31 March, the S&P 5 month's later on 31 Aug (when the bubble burst) and the J200 zigzag upwards making new highs (ignoring both the Nikkei and S&P) till 31 May 2002.

 

• 2007 The Nikkei started on 29 June and the S&P 4 month's later on 31 Oct and the J200 again making new high's till 30 May 08.

 

It will be realy interesting to see how things are going to play out in the next Nikkei crash, whenever that happens!

Nice read

[Sunesis]

PUMP AND DUMP

 

New Fed Chairman

 

A change in one of the most influential positions in the world has often preceded an increase in volatility in the markets.

Paul Volcker’s tenure began on August 6, 1979. Within the next year, the U.S. entered the first leg of a “double-dip” recession with a 17% decline in the S&P 500 in early 1980. A second bear market would begin later that year and a second leg of the “double-dip” recession would begin in 1981.

Alan Greenspan’s tenure began on August 11, 1987. The 1987 crash occurred two months later, with a total decline in the S&P 500 of over 35%.

Ben Bernanke’s tenure began on February 1, 2006. The U.S. housing market would peak only a few months later, setting the stage for the worst recession and Bear Market since the Great Depression. The S&P 500 would reach its peak the following October, suffering a decline of 57% over the subsequent 17 months.

Janet Yellen’s tenure began on February 1st of this year. She is assuming the chairmanship at the same time the Fed is winding down its latest quantitative easing program (see Fed Policy Change above). We are also nearly five years into the Bull Market and expansion that began in 2009. The average expansion historically has been approximately five years.

Bottom Line

While the recent vertical advance from the early February low is likely to invoke fond memories of 2013, investors should not be assuming that a repeat of last year is likely. Based on the factors outlined above, 2014 is expected to feature significantly more volatility than the average year, and certainly higher volatility than 2013. Such an environment is likely to be more suitable to tactical trading and active risk management This is not to say that equity markets cannot end the year higher (most years do), just that investors should not become complacent in believing such a move higher will be a straight line.

FED cannot support a market once it starts falling. They may take actions, but once a market starts falling there is no pause button.

2008 was a good example

New experiments like QE lead to new type of crashes.

 

I was buying markets last year while FED were pumping QE. I'm not going to buy while QE is being taken away

 

Skep tewyl dit reen is over

[AJS]

For what it is worth: The 21 EMA has provided some good support (looking at the hourlies) during this rally.  Look for the move below.

Attached Files

•  SA40_hourlies.png   52.8KB   13 downloads

[Sunesis]

Something will give in soon. You would want to be on the short side of every trade you make. 

This is not boom time. Even if ALSI goes to 44000 just keep shorting.

When the time comes you will be smiling.

Crashes don't give any warning signs. The numbers run faster than you can get out of a trade.

Once earning season is over the bear party will start. We ar moving into two months where most bear markets start April/May. That's not bullish season

Even Goerge Soros put a big short position in his fund. This is the guy who made 1 billion dollars in one day when the pound crashed in 1992

 

[Argento]

Feb have created this bubble and it is juts a matter of time before she explodes.. I hope helicopter Ben has left enough asprins for Yellen. She will need all she can get!!!

Charts tell another story...ye we should see a decent correction and mini crash this year but longer term we have just started the next secular bull!

 

A

[scallywag]

Just keep selling

Sell all ralies

When's it going to happen, and if the china PMI numbers weren't the catalyst, what will be?

[HDB]

FED won't let the markets crash...

 

A

 

Feb have created this bubble and it is juts a matter of time before she explodes.. I hope helicopter Ben has left enough asprins for Yellen. She will need all she can get!!!

[Sunesis]

FED won't let the markets crash...after this blip I'm going long bigtime!Even the mini bear market that is coming will be regulated...

 

Lot of other factors to consider and the world changed a lot since 1929!

 

A

That's correct. But we need to correct

       

 

FTSE and ALSI are stubborn, i think it's the resource stocks.

 

Lets see what US does today. The Yankies always do something crazy

 

Maybe it's a PUMP and DUMP

 

I'm glad global indices are reversing to my levels stated earlier during the week.

 

DAX 9450

Dow 15850

S&P 1710

 

I will start buying once those levels are reached

[Argento]

Which way do we go

 

FED won't let the markets crash...after this blip I'm going long bigtime!Even the mini bear market that is coming will be regulated...

 

Lot of other factors to consider and the world changed a lot since 1929!

 

A

[Sunesis]

Cross Roads

Its 1929, the Sky's about to Fall ! Its 1928, its Lift off ! Confused?

Which way do we go

[Sunesis]

Keep Selling

 

Just keep selling

Sell all ralies

[Argento]

With 5H negative divergence and reaching the top of the daily bollingerband yesterday short it is into next friday, might be zig zag at first....!

 

A

Should be a A,B,C correction targeting the 5H 89 around 41700ish next week!

 

Let's see how it goes!

 

A

[Argento]

TOP40 FORECAST

 

I like putting together scenarios so here goes, most importantly price will be my indicator on when the trends change and this is just my 2c!

 

Believe it or not but there are similarities between the 2008 top and the current price action...with the 7 year cycle/Kress cycle/QE ending coming to pass this year we are in for a bumpy ride..but first:

 

As you can see on the chart we are moving within this new bull channel, the first confirmation of this bullphase to conclude will be when she breaches the intact uptrend line since June...but it is known bullmarkets are at their strongest in the last stages...otherwise known as the 'Euphoria' phase.

 

Changes are very good she will aim for the top of this channel before the bulls kick the can, so I believe lots more upside in store...!

 

My play is and most agree that a short term top (nearing the daily bollinger band,5H negative divergence showing and next week seasonal weak) is near with a possible pullback to the 41700ish breakout point into end of next week (28th)!

 

Then bullspeed ahead into latter March (futures close-out) before another pullback (seasonal) again to the 41700ish support before the last insane rally into April/May for the bullmarket top (weekly reversal candle will confirm)!

 

Down we go into 33 000 / 33200 Q3/Q4 before the next bullphase commence, SPX should aim for 1550ish!The market normally tops when least expect it and cycles don't need a reason for them to do....

 

With retailers and transport beginning to show trend changes time is running out!

 

A

With 5H negative divergence and reaching the top of the daily bollingerband yesterday short it is into next friday, might be zig zag at first....!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 20 February 2014 - 09:40 AM.

[HDB]

Shorts be careful l.....Pound just broke R18.50

[bear catcher]

There we go again.

[HDB]

Just as i thought!!

 

If you used my overnight method in calculating "TRUE" Alsi you could have made 150 points this morning.

I shorted at 3.45am this morning and closed for 100 points at 8am...Waited for opening and caught another short at 42780 which I closed for another 100 points.

 

Point is : Ig went down too low towards 42600 when in actual fact it should have been around 42750!!

[AJS]

Yeah, not going to jump at it just yet, will see what happens when we open.

 

C'mon ALSI. Wonder if we'll get a gap close here. Massive increase in open interest as well, which is quite interesting...

[AJS]

Thanks Bear Catcher, I'm not short yet. I Will have to wait for the market to open.

But I will look for a short entry.

 

Yeah, not going to jump at it just yet, will see what happens when we open.

[Lekkerry]

This seems to easy, or what (shorting from here)?

[Beorn]

BBW join the club this last move up really ate into my account will hold out and pray.But 43300 looks like a reality and not a dream atm. Well done Jakes are you short or waiting sculpmaster?

 

Thanks Bear Catcher, I'm not short yet. I Will have to wait for the market to open.

But I will look for a short entry.