35854 replies to this topic

[Sunesis]

All roads lead to China number

 

I big beat to the number can blow 43300, even 43500 possible

I big miss will shake things up, ruffle a few bulls.

 

 

[Sunesis]

S, all this action at the top of the daily price range makes a breakout to the top more likely. What is your stop for a short? 43100 looks increasingly likely.

 

Thanks

K

put it on a 43300

[BBW]

BBW join the club this last move up really ate into my account will hold out and pray.But 43300 looks like a reality and not a dream atm. Well done Jakes are you short or waiting sculpmaster?

Luckily I'm long with all my other share CFD's (trailing stops) and have been 'scalping' the SA40 long on a daily basis, but today caught me completely off guard; once again because I did a trade of what I THOUGHT the market should do, instead of waiting to SEE what's actually happening. Now I'm in danger of running out of margin, unless I do a longer term long hedge, which (to me) will just be fundamentally wrong (at this stage) !

Edited by BBW, 19 February 2014 - 06:09 PM.

[bear catcher]

BBW join the club this last move up really ate into my account will hold out and pray.But 43300 looks like a reality and not a dream atm. Well done Jakes are you short or waiting sculpmaster?

[AJS]

Closed long @ 42920

 

What a crazy ride!

 

Well done Jakes, really well done! 

[BBW]

If it doesn't go back to 41600, I'm in deep, deep trouble!

[Beorn]

Long @ 42650.

Back test of broken neckline

 

Closed long @ 42920

 

What a crazy ride!

[AJS]

Talk about a squeeze! Last 30mins of futures trading you could see those bids coming through as we edged higher.

[OceanWalz]

**** i thought we will have a drop but no now we shoot for the stars:'*@$

Happy hour short covering! 

[bear catcher]

**** i thought we will have a drop but no now we shoot for the stars:'*@$

[Lekkerry]

Thanks Argento.

 

Yup. And my picture tells a similar short term story:

A: BBandUpper (BBU) near reaching point (again). Comment C defines why this time it is a better indication of a reversal ahead.

B: At last, RSI is breached (note point C below why the previous BBandUpper breach did not break-down)

C: The doozy. The BBU was breached, but there was no further confirmation that it is about to break down. Using the RSI, it is clear this time RSI is already over extended and the BBU is near = a 2/3 confirmation signal

D: The MACD seems to be leveling out, before a momentum shift downwards.

 

Now is a much better time for that short with a SL of 1k points! I am pulling my cowboy hat closer, me thinks! …. It is stored beneath the kitchen sink!

 

TOP40 FORECAST

 

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[K~~]

TOP40 FORECAST

 

I like putting together scenarios so here goes, most importantly price will be my indicator on when the trends change and this is just my 2c!

 

Believe it or not but there are similarities between the 2008 top and the current price action...with the 7 year cycle/Kress cycle/QE ending coming to pass this year we are in for a bumpy ride..but first:

 

As you can see on the chart we are moving within this new bull channel, the first confirmation of this bullphase to conclude will be when she breaches the intact uptrend line since June...but it is known bullmarkets are at their strongest in the last stages...otherwise known as the 'Euphoria' phase.

 

Changes are very good she will aim for the top of this channel before the bulls kick the can, so I believe lots more upside in store...!

 

My play is and most agree that a short term top (nearing the daily bollinger band,5H negative divergence showing and next week seasonal weak) is near with a possible pullback to the 41700ish breakout point into end of next week (28th)!

 

Then bullspeed ahead into latter March (futures close-out) before another pullback (seasonal) again to the 41700ish support before the last insane rally into April/May for the bullmarket top (weekly reversal candle will confirm)!

 

Down we go into 33 000 / 33200 Q3/Q4 before the next bullphase commence, SPX should aim for 1550ish!The market normally tops when least expect it and cycles don't need a reason for them to do....

 

With retailers and transport beginning to show trend changes time is running out!

 

A

A good read, A!

 

If your prediction pans out, we will have severe whiplash by the end of April. But all that means is money to be made both ways! (More than enough to pay our medical bills) 

 

K

[K~~]

Stick to the sell side

S, all this action at the top of the daily price range makes a breakout to the top more likely. What is your stop for a short? 43100 looks increasingly likely.

 

Thanks

K

[Argento]

TOP40 FORECAST

 

I like putting together scenarios so here goes, most importantly price will be my indicator on when the trends change and this is just my 2c!

 

Believe it or not but there are similarities between the 2008 top and the current price action...with the 7 year cycle/Kress cycle/QE ending coming to pass this year we are in for a bumpy ride..but first:

 

As you can see on the chart we are moving within this new bull channel, the first confirmation of this bullphase to conclude will be when she breaches the intact uptrend line since June...but it is known bullmarkets are at their strongest in the last stages...otherwise known as the 'Euphoria' phase.

 

Changes are very good she will aim for the top of this channel before the bulls kick the can, so I believe lots more upside in store...!

 

My play is and most agree that a short term top (nearing the daily bollinger band,5H negative divergence showing and next week seasonal weak) is near with a possible pullback to the 41700ish breakout point into end of next week (28th)!

 

Then bullspeed ahead into latter March (futures close-out) before another pullback (seasonal) again to the 41700ish support before the last insane rally into April/May for the bullmarket top (weekly reversal candle will confirm)!

 

Down we go into 33 000 / 33200 Q3/Q4 before the next bullphase commence, SPX should aim for 1550ish!The market normally tops when least expect it and cycles don't need a reason for them to do....

 

With retailers and transport beginning to show trend changes time is running out!

 

A

[Sunesis]

Stick to the sell side

[K~~]

No disconnect!! Check the alsi closing at 5pm and what the FTSE was doing at 5pm...After we closed FTSE was on steroids and shot up nearly 1% at there close at 6.30pm  our time.... We just playing catch up to FTSE!!

Point taken. We are up 0.5% and FTSE down 0.5%. We just met in the middle..

[Lekkerry]

If I were (now) the trading cowboy I was a year+ ago, I would have shorted the sink our of ALSI at this level (J200 @42800)!

[HDB]

And there is this disconnect between us and the rest of the world again. Almost 1% differential, and the Rand can't account for all of it?

 

No disconnect!! Check the alsi closing at 5pm and what the FTSE was doing at 5pm...After we closed FTSE was on steroids and shot up nearly 1% at there close at 6.30pm  our time.... We just playing catch up to FTSE!!

[K~~]

There is lack of sellers in our market.

It looks like there is no fear at the moment, so any buyer out there will shoot the price up.

This is normally a sign of the last but exaggerated move up.

Dumb money getting in.

IMO. 

And there is this disconnect between us and the rest of the world again. Almost 1% differential, and the Rand can't account for all of it?

[Beorn]

There is lack of sellers in our market.

It looks like there is no fear at the moment, so any buyer out there will shoot the price up.

This is normally a sign of the last but exaggerated move up.

Dumb money getting in.

IMO.