31 votes
Sage
Posted 27 January 2014 - 11:24 AM
Jip. For the East, what we had on Friday is "new news"
ASX is closed today though.
Haha, we're all just speculating really, we don't know where this is going, especially since it is the ALSI we are talking about!
Toss a coin, then trade LOL 
Heads=Long
Tails=Short
I' going to short every rally. The move down is not over yet
No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than..speculation.
Sage
Posted 27 January 2014 - 10:41 AM
Well done 1h chart, you didn't disappoint! Licked the BB- and up she shot again again!
Ek weet nie jong (considering this AM's input on SC), 41067 (J200) on the 1h seems to be the next big stop, unless there is an event that takes ALSI from its current trend. But then again, that is for us day-traders.
From your perspective, Lekkerry is faceless and to a degree nameless, so any opinions expressed are just that, opinions from someone on the Internet 
Master
Posted 27 January 2014 - 10:20 AM
and S&P 500 F's nicely in low level green and FTSE 100 none of big sell off either - and a lot of Friday sell off was just opposite of short squeeze ( sharp move and then sanity follows ?)
but I am still short for now but there is no smell of the expected fear sell off so far. Fridays move spells more sell off but I probably will expect decent bounce to start Wed to close before for higher entry shorts after month end view
Sage
Posted 27 January 2014 - 10:09 AM
Ek weet nie jong (considering this AM's input on SC), 41067 (J200) on the 1h seems to be the next big stop, unless there is an event that takes ALSI from its current trend. But then again, that is for us day-traders.
The 1D chart has a target of 40600 (J200) and it has all the scope and incentive it needs to drop to that level, looking at the chart techs (MACD, BBand and RSI).
As always, ensure you stay liquid as it drops.
From your perspective, Lekkerry is faceless and to a degree nameless, so any opinions expressed are just that, opinions from someone on the Internet
Advanced Member
Posted 27 January 2014 - 10:01 AM
From Investing.com...
http://www.investing...-for-now-200032
The 2-day and 2-day drops are well within 2 standard deviations of arithmetic returns in SPY. In addition, the trendline from the bottom of November 2012 is intact and there is support around $177.32 from the lows of December of last year. Probabilities tell us to avoid averaging down but no short signal was generated. For now, there is no reason to panic as everything seems to be within normal statistical bounds.
The trendline from November 2012 is at $177.32, about $1.50 below the close of Friday, together with horizontal support from the lows of December of last year. Below that lies the 200-day simple moving average at $170.77. Something extraordinary must happen, of fundamental nature, for the market to fall below these levels in one or two sessions.
The PSI (Probability State Indicator™) for SPY shown on the first pane took a plunge because of Friday's drop but it is still above 0.05, the hypothetical level that issues a short signal. Therefore, although probabilities favor the short side, a short signal has not been issued by this indicator yet.
The second pane shows the 1-day arithmetic returns and their statistics since SPY inception. Friday's drop of -2.13% is well within the 2 standard deviations lower band at -2.40%. This is a normal event as it can be seen from the chart. The 2-day drop of -2.94% is also well within the 2 standard deviations lower band at -3.26%, as shown on the third pane. A -3.83% 2-day event last June marked the beginning of another rally.
No reason to panic for anyone who monitors price action closely. If critical support levels are violated, then some may close long positions and wait for the market to recapture them and make them new support. Those who panic a lot are either on margin or are late bulls, usually converted from bears. Early investors and systematic traders have no reason to panic here. These are normal market conditions. if things get worse, the course of action is clear.
Disclosure: no relevant positions. Charting program: Amibroker. Disclaimer
The Artist
Posted 27 January 2014 - 09:57 AM
Hello Argento.
When you say you are cautious, you think that a drop of +- 900 points from current levels in the next day or three a tad too optimistic then? My gut-feel is "no", with your predicted fall of Feb being one much greater.
Ta.
Yip, I would say that...but just my 2c, we should start going back up this week!
A
"Never never never give up!"
Sage
Posted 27 January 2014 - 09:47 AM
fabes = rational : ALSI = irrational
I agree fully with you A. I can't see that investors would buy into new highs one day and the next sell at heavy lows. Doesn't make logical sense. Someone is bound to pick up the bargains. Seems as if Europe and US might just have a green day today, but it remains to be seen.
Alsi is however always a beast and at times don't follow the world, so we'll see today.
From your perspective, Lekkerry is faceless and to a degree nameless, so any opinions expressed are just that, opinions from someone on the Internet
Little Master
Posted 27 January 2014 - 09:38 AM
I would be careful being too bearish on ALSI just yet...seasonals are still pointing up!
Just Thursday last week we made new highs and now everybody is bearish, the ALSI is very dangerous at the moment because of the volatile moves....we had a massive run since December and this profit taking is actually healthy..!
As Livingstone always said size the market up, now the bigger picture is still bullish for me with the double bottom and should fuel her into new highs again...should see a nice downleg in Feb again, but I am holding on to my longs!
Looks as if the US has kicked off its primary wave IV down but is overdue a B leg bounce, we are already in our primary wave V up!
Just my humble opinion!
A
I agree fully with you A. I can't see that investors would buy into new highs one day and the next sell at heavy lows. Doesn't make logical sense. Someone is bound to pick up the bargains. Seems as if Europe and US might just have a green day today, but it remains to be seen.
Alsi is however always a beast and at times don't follow the world, so we'll see today.
Master
Posted 27 January 2014 - 09:32 AM
I would be careful being too bearish on ALSI just yet...seasonals are still pointing up!
Just Thursday last week we made new highs and now everybody is bearish, the ALSI is very dangerous at the moment because of the volatile moves....we had a massive run since December and this profit taking is actually healthy..!
As Livingstone always said size the market up, now the bigger picture is still bullish for me with the double bottom and should fuel her into new highs again...should see a nice downleg in Feb again, but I am holding on to my longs!
Looks as if the US has kicked off its primary wave IV down but is overdue a B leg bounce, we are already in our primary wave V up!
Just my humble opinion!
A
Hi, your view is supported by end of month window dressing to come
Sage
Posted 27 January 2014 - 09:29 AM
Hello Argento.
When you say you are cautious, you think that a drop of +- 900 points from current levels in the next day or three a tad too optimistic then? My gut-feel is "no", with your predicted fall of Feb being one much greater.
Ta.
I would be careful being too bearish on ALSI just yet...seasonals are still pointing up!
Just Thursday last week we made new highs and now everybody is bearish, the ALSI is very dangerous at the moment because of the volatile moves....we had a massive run since December and this profit taking is actually healthy..!
As Livingstone always said size the market up, now the bigger picture is still bullish for me with the double bottom and should fuel her into new highs again...should see a nice downleg in Feb again, but I am holding on to my longs!
Looks as if the US has kicked off its primary wave IV down but is overdue a B leg bounce, we are already in our primary wave V up!
Just my humble opinion!
A
From your perspective, Lekkerry is faceless and to a degree nameless, so any opinions expressed are just that, opinions from someone on the Internet
The Artist
Posted 27 January 2014 - 09:22 AM
I would be careful being too bearish on ALSI just yet...seasonals are still pointing up!
Just Thursday last week we made new highs and now everybody is bearish, the ALSI is very dangerous at the moment because of the volatile moves....we had a massive run since December and this profit taking is actually healthy..!
As Livingstone always said size the market up, now the bigger picture is still bullish for me with the double bottom and should fuel her into new highs again...should see a nice downleg in Feb again, but I am holding on to my longs!
Looks as if the US has kicked off its primary wave IV down but is overdue a B leg bounce, we are already in our primary wave V up!
Just my humble opinion!
A
"Never never never give up!"
Little Master
Posted 27 January 2014 - 09:10 AM
The 1D chart has a target of 40600 (J200) and it has all the scope and incentive it needs to drop to that level, looking at the chart techs (MACD, BBand and RSI).
As always, ensure you stay liquid as it drops.
Market might just decide to recover slightly on German data @ 11:00.
Happy Trading!!
Sage
Posted 27 January 2014 - 08:57 AM
The 1D chart has a target of 40600 (J200) and it has all the scope and incentive it needs to drop to that level, looking at the chart techs (MACD, BBand and RSI).
As always, ensure you stay liquid as it drops.
From your perspective, Lekkerry is faceless and to a degree nameless, so any opinions expressed are just that, opinions from someone on the Internet
Little Master
Posted 27 January 2014 - 08:32 AM
remember the East was at closing time before carnage started here - they have to play catch up , er I mean dive down
Guys, remember
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Plasma" data-cid="228510" data-time="1390753575">To all intraday traders and perhaps scalpers .....who has been around for some time ....we are 453 points down ito AFTER HOURS IGM trading .....at these levels what is the perceived probability for a mere 100 points long opportunity .....surely that must be a some pre-trading normalisation - otherwise we will open over 1% lower - has that ever happen before?
Well I'm convinced by the downtrend, however I'm still long. Should Japanese data come in above expectation we should see some green. Also bearing in mind Asian indexes are already 2% down on Friday night, so more downside will result in 3-4%. Important data in Europe and US tomorrow, if good should result in some recovery. By no means advice just my opinion.
Jip. For the East, what we had on Friday is "new news"
Haha, we're all just speculating really, we don't know where this is going, especially since it is the ALSI we are talking about!
remember the East was at closing time before carnage started here - they have to play catch up , er I mean dive down
Guys, the same applies for the East as for us. With IG you see the downward movement afterhours. The guys trading on IG could already see the red in the east on Friday night.
Sage
Posted 27 January 2014 - 07:21 AM
Argento always talks about waves. But remember, there is also a daily wave:
The US goes a certain direction, the East then reacts on the yanks until around 5-6 in the morning. Then the world sort of tries to think for itself until US data or US open.
You clearly see it right now with Japan and Oz being red and US futures just turning slightly green.
Jip. For the East, what we had on Friday is "new news" ASX is closed today though.
Haha, we're all just speculating really, we don't know where this is going, especially since it is the ALSI we are talking about!
Little Master
Posted 27 January 2014 - 07:18 AM
Master
Posted 27 January 2014 - 07:11 AM
Check the east!!!
remember the East was at closing time before carnage started here - they have to play catch up , er I mean dive down
Sage
Posted 27 January 2014 - 07:06 AM
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="AJS" data-cid="228522" data-time="1390798546">
Thanks AJS....seems short it is ... Would like to get in a bit higher...so wating for some pullback during opening...but then again, that might not happen...
Yeah, I suspect the gap we see today might not even get filled. Dunno, depends. Some gaps can remain open for quite a long time, they don't have to get filled immediately. If 41k breaks today it will be good for the bears.
Silfen Path Wanderer
Posted 27 January 2014 - 07:04 AM
Took a working order last night and entered a long further down with a 100 point limit. Order was filled and closed with 100 point profit. Now waiting to see what happens at 0830.
Nice man, well done! I scheme everyone and his grandmother will be coming in short.
The first goal is to ensure survival – avoid the risks that can empty your account and put you out of the trading business.
Sage
Posted 27 January 2014 - 06:55 AM
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="fabes" data-cid="228512" data-time="1390763897">
Took a working order last night and entered a long further down with a 100 point limit. Order was filled and closed with 100 point profit. Now waiting to see what happens at 0830.
Nice man, well done! I scheme everyone and his grandmother will be coming in short.
