31 votes
The Artist
Posted 23 December 2013 - 12:28 PM
Pleasure!
Yip, she could overshoot a bit but seasonal also calls for a top around that time!
See the positive divergence on the weekly MACD, says a big rally is coming...but one more down move to the previous low before it starts...
US should also make a top in Jan (wave 3 top of 5 of primary III)
A
Sorry, correct chart!
A
"Never never never give up!"
The Artist
Posted 23 December 2013 - 12:25 PM
Thanks a mill for that - much appreciated - will keep as insightful view! I take it you are keeping onto your longs T40F's till second week January or there about?
Pleasure!
Yip, she could overshoot a bit but seasonal also calls for a top around that time!
See the positive divergence on the weekly MACD, says a big rally is coming...but one more down move to the previous low before it starts...
US should also make a top in Jan (wave 3 top of 5 of primary III)
A
"Never never never give up!"
Master
Posted 23 December 2013 - 12:03 PM
Very interesting and valuable info from Tony Caldaro's weekly letter...think a lot of traders missed that the FED will reduce QE3 with 10$b with every FOMC meeting next year, that puts an end to the QE3 program around Q4 2014.
Notice the chart attached on every noticable correction occuring after a QE program, that puts this bulltrend phase at a possible top only around Q4!
TOP40 is moving within a large consolidation band currently targeting our previous high second week of Jan, then down we should go (due to negative divergence on the weeklies and MACD always going for the 0 line) again into beginning Feb (cycle low) targeting the December low. It is actually very bullish cause from there we should break out above so lots more gains for the first half of the year, but second half should see us moving into an important top!
Happy festive season everyone!
A
Thanks a mill for that - much appreciated - will keep as insightful view! I take it you are keeping onto your longs T40F's till second week January or there about?
The Artist
Posted 23 December 2013 - 11:01 AM
Very interesting and valuable info from Tony Caldaro's weekly letter...think a lot of traders missed that the FED will reduce QE3 with 10$b with every FOMC meeting next year, that puts an end to the QE3 program around Q4 2014.
Notice the chart attached on every noticable correction occuring after a QE program, that puts this bulltrend phase at a possible top only around Q4!
TOP40 is moving within a large consolidation band currently targeting our previous high second week of Jan, then down we should go (due to negative divergence on the weeklies and MACD always going for the 0 line) again into beginning Feb (cycle low) targeting the December low. It is actually very bullish cause from there we should break out above so lots more gains for the first half of the year, but second half should see us moving into an important top!
Happy festive season everyone!
A
"The plan, which was confirmed in the press conference that followed the FOMC statement, is to reduce the bond purchases by about $10bn/FOMC meeting. Placing an end date for QE 3 by late 2014. The only caveat was/is the economy needs to continue to improve. If we assume regular QE3 reductions of $10bn/FOMC meeting, the earliest the program could end is November 2014 and the latest January 2015. The importance of an end date was probably missed by most market pundits.
When we one reviews both QE 1 and QE 2 they uncover an interesting stock market pattern. QE 1 got going in earnest in March 2009 with a planned end date of June 2010. Notice the market topped in mid-April about two months before it ended, and then had a good correction. QE 2, which was announced in August 2010, took the market out of that correction. It had an end date of June 2011. Observe the stock market topped in early-May 2011, about one month before it ended, and then an even larger decline followed. This larger decline likely occurred because the FED opted for Operation Twist, in September 2011, instead of another outright QE type bond buying program.
Should the market follow this QE/SPX relationship, as we expect, we should now be looking for a potential bull market top between September and December of 2014. With the end date well out into next year it is no wonder the SPX rallied 41 points, (2.4%), in less that two hours after the announcement."
"Never never never give up!"
Sage
Posted 23 December 2013 - 10:31 AM
40300 (Investing.com) the next level to watch. Will add my 3rd tranche of longs should be break there.
Have you added yet
Little Master
Posted 23 December 2013 - 10:28 AM
40300 (Investing.com) the next level to watch. Will add my 3rd tranche of longs should be break there.
I find trading like body surfing, catch the right one and you will make it all the way to the beach.
Little Master
Posted 23 December 2013 - 10:20 AM
Guess most guys bought their longs and left for the coast.....
Sage
Posted 23 December 2013 - 09:08 AM
89 MA making a move on the 200 MA on the 30min.
Edited by AJS, 23 December 2013 - 09:08 AM.
Little Master
Posted 23 December 2013 - 09:06 AM
Morning all, anyone know of trading hours on JSE & USA over this holiday period - or link to the hours.
Maybe the same then previous years 12:00 and 12:15 on 31/12 ??
"Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done, except by liars." - Bernard Baruch
Master
Posted 23 December 2013 - 08:52 AM
Slow grind up.... But low volumes might cause very short term volatility... Don't get frightened by that!
Morning all, anyone know of trading hours on JSE & USA over this holiday period - or link to the hours.
my take is also slow grind up interspersed with sporadic speed upward mostly and some downwards - low volume create spooks of levels being overvalued and then herds of fear of being left out. Take into account that most people expect upside
Little Master
Posted 23 December 2013 - 08:47 AM
Slow grind up.... But low volumes might cause very short term volatility... Don't get frightened by that!
Sage
Posted 23 December 2013 - 08:40 AM
40300 (Investing.com) the next level to watch. Will add my 3rd tranche of longs should be break there.
Sage
Posted 23 December 2013 - 07:55 AM
I believe you are right. But I hope we are both right.
I like all the green I see!
*edit* I don't expect a crazy point day though.
Edited by AJS, 23 December 2013 - 07:58 AM.
Little Master
Posted 23 December 2013 - 07:36 AM
I find trading like body surfing, catch the right one and you will make it all the way to the beach.
Advanced Member
Posted 22 December 2013 - 10:01 PM
Can't see anything but a steady grind higher these last few trading days. Downtrend borken... I call a green last few trading days. Just my few cents worth.
Sage
Posted 22 December 2013 - 09:02 PM
Getting excited for tomorrow. What are the predictions?
Sage
Posted 22 December 2013 - 09:02 PM
Getting excited for tomorrow. What are the predictions?
Advanced Member
Posted 22 December 2013 - 06:46 PM
Sage
Posted 22 December 2013 - 08:59 AM
A video about QE<br /><br />https://www.youtube....bed/ZZvkuVlQN44<br />
Hahaha, awesome! I love these punk economics! This is spot on though!
Sage
Posted 22 December 2013 - 08:54 AM
Thoughts? <br /><br />http://kingworldnews...Whats_Next.html<br />
Thanks for this.
What I said/thought as well:
‘Forget about what we told you about 6.5% unemployment that we targeted for the Fed to begin to engage in a policy of getting off of zero bound interest rates,’
I really do wonder how much unemployment data would play a part now that everyone has more clarity as to what will move the Fed on QE. We know now interest rates will stay low untill inflation can get its head up towards 2%. Sunesis did pointed out that an unemployed labor force can't create inflation, and rightly so. I just think inflation is now the important thing to watch out for after the Fed's statement.
