35854 replies to this topic

[bullsnbears44]

Call me doff. .. but I just went long at 43950

Reason?

[Ninja]

Call me doff. .. but I just went long at 43950

[Mostlya]

A close under 44k spells trouble for bulls. They need to defend it with everything they've got.

and there's still plenty of room to run on the hourly ,4/5 hourly and daily charts to ensure this thing closes below 44K. Euphoric Europe will need to save the market today.

[bullsnbears44]

A close under 44k spells trouble for bulls. They need to defend it with everything they've got.

[Mostlya]

US closed weak ... down we go

Yup with Tencent down and BHP down 5% in Aus there really is only one way here. Question is will the rand weakness protect the ALSI. I think we should easily see the lows of last week and probably look for the long-term Fib of 43 835 before anything else.

[gannet]

Oil's collapsing here. Bought time considering how unbalanced the market is. US markets - holding strong.

US closed weak ... down we go

[Mostlya]

Oil's collapsing here. Bought time considering how unbalanced the market is. US markets - holding strong.

*about

[Mostlya]

Oil's collapsing here. Bought time considering how unbalanced the market is. US markets - holding strong.

[Mostlya]

we're still in 2nd gear. who knows how to drive this jalopy? anyone??

Just holding short and managing liquidity. What else can one do here? Short-term moves are just range bound and distributive. Impossible to trade for me that much I know. Some people on this forum seem to have been doing a really good job at finding the top and bottoms of those ranges though and it's very impressive.

[gannet]

No doubt. Especially with the Rand moving south

we're still in 2nd gear. who knows how to drive this jalopy? anyone??

[Mostlya]

this thing can rip. if there's a hint of the US buying the dip we will lead the way

No doubt. Especially with the Rand moving south

[gannet]

this thing can rip. if there's a hint of the US buying the dip we will lead the way

[Mostlya]

I hear a cracking sound

It just can't seem to get going properly. Usual situation of wait to see if the US buys the dip.

[Ninja]

I hear a cracking sound

[Ninja]

Thnx guys☺

[Mostlya]

@ Mostlyabear - what are your thoughts on gold going into next week?

I have to tell you I've almost let go having any opinion on Gold. It's drivers are so inter-changeable it's hard to know what's really driving the market (not considering technical at all).

 

It seems that the fear trade is still being priced into it because it's way higher than any historical standard. I guess on that basis it should move higher if the 15 March triggers a risk event regardless of the movements on the dollar. The only other consideration is whether a massive risk event might move money away from equities into treasuries/bond with a move to Gold when the market starts to consider a correction a crash.

 

Just really not sure about Gold, trading it must drive on crazy. The other commodities I would think are in trouble though for the rest of the year/2018.

[Ninja]

@ Mostlyabear - what are your thoughts on gold going into next week?

[bullsnbears44]

Debt ceiling, apparently there is going to be no more borrowing by the US govt,,

If that happens there will be chaos...

So I dont believe it...

 

Trump apparently wants another Trillion USD to start his plans for defense and infrastructure...

So if  the congress wont give it to him!!!!!

Troubles for him

The debt ceiling will certainly be raised. If it isn't we face an apocalypse when the US government runs out of cash a few weeks later. The question is how messy will the fight be. Republicans themselves weren't happy with the last deal in 2015. Unlikely they'll accept a clean increase in the debt limit. They'll want concessions from Trump, who himself is looking for a trillion more in spending - not a chance that will happen. Throw in Democrats who won't accept reductions in social spending and you're looking at a major fight coming up. Probably another government shutdown. Trump won't negotiate - his ego is far too big for that. The biggest risk is another downgrade of the US. This thing has the potential bring down the first domino, at least as far as the markets as concerned.

[Mostlya]

Debt ceiling, apparently there is going to be no more borrowing by the US govt,,

If that happens there will be chaos...

So I dont believe it...

 

Trump apparently wants another Trillion USD to start his plans for defense and infrastructure...

So if  the congress wont give it to him!!!!!

Troubles for him

Plus US interest rate decision on the same day. The Fed needs to raise now and while bonds seem to be slowly preparing for it, equities haven't even given it a second glance. Not so much the fact that they'll increase once but the fact that they might actually stick to 3 rises this year and possibly more next year if the go ahead and rise this early in the year.

 

Personally I don't see them getting to raise in 2018 once the market starts to correct. After all their number 1 mandate is to prop up the US stock market. Stagflation is a myth.