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#26721 Argento

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 12:06 PM

Just also remember that we might consolidate until Friday. We have US thanksgiving on Thursday. Usually after US thanksgiving the market has a down day.

Because US markets are at all time highs, a reversal will come later throughout the week in those markets. That should tell you that Santa Rally is about to start.

The Indian50 sold off together with Top40 last week. These are EM Markets. Today the Indian50 started turning. This should tell us a low base is forming. After the US reversal is complete, Top40 would have found a base.

 

US markets are bullish, and FTSE and Top40 will catch up sooner or later.

 

oscar%20112513v%20DJIY%20~%20Daily_11242

 

The Nikkei broke a 20 year trendline today

Screen-Shot-2013-11-23-at-11.55.52-AM.pn

Can't assume the low is in...that was the call last week as well and look to where we fell?

 

Charts telling more blood going to flow, can't ignore the massive divergences on the US charts so just a matter of time..catching up with us and not otherway around!

A


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#26722 Sunesis

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 11:45 AM

Im watching what will happen at the 600 level..bounce up and we could see 40500..breaking that we retest the 39300..my bias towards the bounce off 600ish level

Just also remember that we might consolidate until Friday. We have US thanksgiving on Thursday. Usually after US thanksgiving the market has a down day.

Because US markets are at all time highs, a reversal will come later throughout the week in those markets. That should tell you that Santa Rally is about to start.

The Indian50 sold off together with Top40 last week. These are EM Markets. Today the Indian50 started turning. This should tell us a low base is forming. After the US reversal is complete, Top40 would have found a base.

 

US markets are bullish, and FTSE and Top40 will catch up sooner or later.

 

oscar%20112513v%20DJIY%20~%20Daily_11242

 

The Nikkei broke a 20 year trendline today

Screen-Shot-2013-11-23-at-11.55.52-AM.pn


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#26723 fabes

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 11:39 AM

Today  and tomorrow..Just the levels im looking at guys..Its not the gospel so please don't treat it as such :) Im also still long fabes but Id much rather have  a test off 39600 going forward

Thanks Chubbs. We've done it before(rally forward), So I'm hoping today is such a day again. I must also consider trading the FTSE, SP500 rather. Alsi has a mind of it's own sometimes and without any reason(according to me). looking at all things, we should be marching forward, but yet it looks like we might have pullback.


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#26724 fabes

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 11:23 AM

 

39 600??

hoping chubby meant 40600 and 41500. :D we forgive mistakes on a monday morning chubby. :rolleyes:


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#26725 Plasma

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 11:14 AM

Im watching what will happen at the 600 level..bounce up and we could see 40500..breaking that we retest the 39300..my bias towards the bounce off 600ish level


39 600??
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#26726 fabes

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 11:13 AM

Im watching what will happen at the 600 level..bounce up and we could see 40500..breaking that we retest the 39300..my bias towards the bounce off 600ish level

What is your "timeframe" chubby? I don't see us going there today? Or maybe it's cause I'm long already or don't know this beast called Alsi...


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#26727 iambyrongold

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 11:12 AM

My opinion is that the US needs a bit off a break, maybe a 3 or 4% pullback. If they do, we could go back down to the 38000 level.

Im bullish, but sceptical in the short term..


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#26728 __freeman__

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 11:02 AM

Keep it until 14h30 or or US open.

The rewards for longs will come. Patience is the name of the game.

Don't let the noise distract you.

 

Santa Rally is alive, and it will come.

Last weeks profit taking is healthy for any market.

Stick to your guns.

This is good advice! Never short a bull market. And this is a bull market until proven otherwise.


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#26729 fabes

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 11:00 AM

Keep it until 14h30 or or US open.

The rewards for longs will come. Patience is the name of the game.

Don't let the noise distract you.

 

Santa Rally is alive, and it will come.

Last weeks profit taking is healthy for any market.

Stick to your guns.

Thanks Sunesis. I'll just adjust my SL for any unexpected downward movement such as Friday.


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#26730 Sunesis

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 10:53 AM

It's awfully quiet here today. Anyone have an opnion for the rest of the day's movement? I have a long position open and targeted 40100 atleast.

 

Do you think I should take profits and walk away or hang in there for a further upward move?

Keep it until 14h30 or or US open.

The rewards for longs will come. Patience is the name of the game.

Don't let the noise distract you.

 

Santa Rally is alive, and it will come.

Last weeks profit taking is healthy for any market.

Stick to your guns.


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#26731 fabes

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 10:47 AM

It's awfully quiet here today. Anyone have an opnion for the rest of the day's movement? I have a long position open and targeted 40100 atleast.

 

Do you think I should take profits and walk away or hang in there for a further upward move?

 

 


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#26732 Sunesis

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 10:09 AM

Should see some type of rally around Christmas/end of year but only an oversold bounce and distribution to go down more, first half of December we should continue down!

 

The support that has been broken will now act as resistance...if you see that happening you know trend has changed!

 

Big shares have broken their support too so I don't see anything bullish about our market, next good long opportunity only end of Jan..if you play big waves!(This week should create a beartrap) ;)

 

A

I still stick to my Santa Rally.

It's just a case of people looking at the market differently.


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#26733 RBM

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 10:08 AM

we should at least 40200 on this upward move


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#26734 HendrikB

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 09:49 AM

How low can she Gold $ (1230) go???


gold rallies during a crisis.
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#26735 Argento

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 09:45 AM

:( thanks for good analysis A. No traditional end of year rally according to you? 

maybe we put in bottom before for an EOY rally ,  before that FTSE still has date with 6600

Should see some type of rally around Christmas/end of year but only an oversold bounce and distribution to go down more, first half of December we should continue down!

 

The support that has been broken will now act as resistance...if you see that happening you know trend has changed!

 

Big shares have broken their support too so I don't see anything bullish about our market, next good long opportunity only end of Jan..if you play big waves!(This week should create a beartrap) ;)

 

A


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#26736 OceanWalz

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 09:39 AM

Bears are in control but bullish week....!

 

One should always keep an open mind with mr market, just when you think you know what she is doing she changes her colours in ways that nobody expects...so only way to know is to get clues from the charts, so what do we know:

 

- Uptrend since June has been broken

- Large weekly reversal candle in play

- Sentiment too high in the bulls camp

 

Studied the TOP40 chart and the US indexes this weekend and this is my conclusion:

 

US is very close in putting an important top that is reflecting in leading indicators, so when they do (Thanksgiving top?) we should continue south with them!

 

My guess is we are going to go up this week (seasonal up) for the broken June trendline (graph) but only for a return move and not a new bullleg up!

 

Next cycle low is last week of January 2014 so I am changing my view on new highs in December, should only see new highs again next year April/May and most probably be the top of the bullmarket!

 

My position is short and I will buy in with the strength this week!

 

This market is now sell the rallies and not buy the dip anymore!!

A

:( thanks for good analysis A. No traditional end of year rally according to you? 

maybe we put in bottom before for an EOY rally ,  before that FTSE still has date with 6600


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#26737 Sunesis

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 09:36 AM

How low can she Gold $ (1230) go???

 

How low can she Gold $ (1230) go???

Gold coming down nice, my entries are 1$180 and $1050


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#26738 massimo

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 09:18 AM

Long ALSI at 39800.

 Closed long at 40012

 

Not sure what my next move is, will watch.
 


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#26739 Argento

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 09:11 AM

Bears are in control but bullish week....!

 

One should always keep an open mind with mr market, just when you think you know what she is doing she changes her colours in ways that nobody expects...so only way to know is to get clues from the charts, so what do we know:

 

- Uptrend since June has been broken

- Large weekly reversal candle in play

- Sentiment too high in the bulls camp

 

Studied the TOP40 chart and the US indexes this weekend and this is my conclusion:

 

US is very close in putting an important top that is reflecting in leading indicators, so when they do (Thanksgiving top?) we should continue south with them!

 

My guess is we are going to go up this week (seasonal up) for the broken June trendline (graph) but only for a return move and not a new bullleg up!

 

Next cycle low is last week of January 2014 so I am changing my view on new highs in December, should only see new highs again next year April/May and most probably be the top of the bullmarket!

 

My position is short and I will buy in with the strength this week!

 

This market is now sell the rallies and not buy the dip anymore!!

A


Edited by Argento, 25 November 2013 - 09:12 AM.

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#26740 zoner

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 09:10 AM

How low can she Gold $ (1230) go???


Edited by zoner, 25 November 2013 - 09:10 AM.

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