35854 replies to this topic

[Sunesis]

The Bulls need to regain and break the downtrend line @40100-ish to get back in the game. Will monitor this closely.

We might consolidate this week in top40. US markets will reverse later during the week.

Next week is the start of the Santa Rally by seasonality.

Funds need to make their portfolios look good in January, they will be forced to buy.

 

Besides all the South African  economics and crap. The bigger interest rate is the FED.

The FED set the interest rate for the world.

[fabes]

Morning all. Do you expect a dip before we resume upward movement

[K~~]

The Bulls need to regain and break the downtrend line @40100-ish to get back in the game. Will monitor this closely.

[Sunesis]

[Sunesis]

[Sunesis]

And just to be clear... 5 stocks ie NPN, CFR, SAB, SOL and BAT was responsible for the bulk of the gains in ALSI this year and these stocks don't care about direction of rates in SA. It's all about the currency and If the ZAR continuous to weaken these stocks will do well and ALSI will go higher irrespective of what the SARB decides.

Tencent is up at record levels today.

BHP is moderately up on the ASX

The dollar is quite strong today.

 

Nikkei is up

S&P and Dow hit  all time highs over night.

 

One way or another the bull trend will continue.

Unless the Mafia's are in for the Top40.

That's why relying from one stream of water is not good money management.

Nikkei has already made enough money for me today. Had a nice profitable Asia session.

No need to trade Top40 today.

I have only one long from last week from 39500, will hold it till end of December

[Redeemer]

     

 

[OceanWalz]

[Zero Hedge]

Guess what I really try to say is that If you have a view that rates are going higher in SA, then going short the ALSI/Top40 is not the most optimal way to profit from this view...and with this comment I will rest.

[Zero Hedge]

Also go and have a look at last weeks market action...our market was under pressure right from the start of the week yet the FOMC meeting was only Thursday afternoon. You should also know that the prices on the dual listed stocks are not made in SA...so can't see how higher rates in SA will impact the valuation of CFR in Switzerland for example?

[Zero Hedge]

Bond yields and swap rates in SA have been rising through out the year yet our market is almost 20 percent higher. Investors use long bond rate to value equities and not the repo rate.

[Beorn]

Can't see how interest rate hike in SA will impact the big bellwethers like SAB, CFR, SOL, BAT, NPN, BIL, MTN and other dual listed shares and hence cause our market to drop 10 percent. It will only be the rates sensitives that will suffer.

Your entitled to your view, I posted mine.
I'm not going to argue my point, not in the mood.
Two opinions, and you have a market.
Lets see what happens when interest rate starts climbing.

All I will say, institutions use interest rates to value stocks.

[Zero Hedge]

And SA is sadly not known for it's saving culture...we good at spending though.

[Zero Hedge]

The sad truth is SA is uncompetitive and inflation differentials will cause currency to move in one direction only...ZAR still over valued on a unit labour cost basis.

[HendrikB]

And a rate hike may this time just have the opposite effect on the currency...a hike could see foreign investors dumping our bonds (they now hold more than 40 perc) and shares (in some cases up to 70 perc is foreign owned) thereby putting further pressure on currency.

 

Maybe on the short run, but on the long run high interest rates will increase savings and decrease the money supply.  Higher interest rates attract foreign capital. Demand for rand will get stronger over time.  We can't go down the path of the US and near zero-interest rates.  Once you're down there you're on a slippery slope to nowhere.  And what's the point of keeping shares inflated when the Rand erodes its value anyway?  I'll take a beating on a stock market for a strong rand any time of the day.

[Zero Hedge]

And a rate hike may this time just have the opposite effect on the currency...a hike could see foreign investors dumping our bonds (they now hold more than 40 perc) and shares (in some cases up to 70 perc is foreign owned) thereby putting further pressure on currency.

[Zero Hedge]

You are correct in saying it's all about the currency...I am just saying that FED Tapering ,EM jitters and fund flows will this time trump what the SARB is doing...should the currency continue to weaken then our market will proof to be remarkably resilient as dual listed shares will outperform

[HendrikB]

And just to be clear... 5 stocks ie NPN, CFR, SAB, SOL and BAT was responsible for the bulk of the gains in ALSI this year and these stocks don't care about direction of rates in SA. It's all about the currency and If the ZAR continuous to weaken these stocks will do well and ALSI will go higher irrespective of what the SARB decides.

 

I don't 100% agree.  Historically, SARB's decisions on interest rates does have a bearing on the Rand.  Thus, any impact on the Rand will also be felt by these stocks you're mentioning, because they're quoted in Rand currency.

[Zero Hedge]

And just to be clear... 5 stocks ie NPN, CFR, SAB, SOL and BAT was responsible for the bulk of the gains in ALSI this year and these stocks don't care about direction of rates in SA. It's all about the currency and If the ZAR continuous to weaken these stocks will do well and ALSI will go higher irrespective of what the SARB decides.

[Mad Max]

How would they screw you?

Now that I think of it , it sounds ridiculous . Ignore me.