35854 replies to this topic

[Zero Hedge]

Can't see how interest rate hike in SA will impact the big bellwethers like SAB, CFR, SOL, BAT, NPN, BIL, MTN and other dual listed shares and hence cause our market to drop 10 percent. It will only be the rates sensitives that will suffer.

[Zero Hedge]

And guys sorry to pop your bubble but the whales that determine the direction of our market ie big local and foreign instos don't even know this chat room exist and really don't care what we say or how we are positioned they have their own agendas for taking market up or down

[Beorn]

I have a feeling the pain is not over for the Alsi Bulls.

With US' strong finish on Friday, I suspect US futures will be red all Monday morning.

And we should then take another leg lower.

 

I also think the market reaction is because of tannie Gill & Co's mention of interest rate hike.

I will bet my money that an interest rate hike in SA will hit Alsi with +-10% correction.

 

Keep in mind, as soon as traders suspect it is coming(rate hike), they start pricing it in. (that's the game we play).

 

And I will not be trading on Monday, not even able to keep an eye on markets, will only see what transpired @ 4:30 

[Beorn]

I have a feeling the pain is not over for the Alsi Bulls.

With US' strong finish on Friday, I suspect US futures will be red all Monday morning.

And we should then take another leg lower.

 

I also think the market reaction is because of tannie Gill & Co's mention of interest rate hike.

I will bet my money that an interest rate hike in SA will hit Alsi with +-10% correction.

 

Keep in mind, as soon as traders suspect it is coming(rate hike), they start pricing it in. (that's the game we play).

[davidp13]

I said the  almost the same thing yesterday and look what happened. My lesson for today is not to trade on expectation but trade what the chart is telling you !  I also get the feeling that "someone" monitors this chat room and totally screws us the next day. Maybe I am just paranoid.A bad day indeed but I hope  you are right RBM as I need to recuperate and close my longs .

How would they screw you?

I think the market is bigger than that. We got screwed and I guess that is that.

p.s. what goes up must come down the question is when...

[Zero Hedge]

From what I could see it seemed as if someone was leaning on our market for the best part of the week...most Top40 constituents were under pressure whilst some of their peers outside the index held up rather well. It seems as if the weakness in our market was derivatives based as the futures traded at discount to spot ...selling perhaps related to delta execution for a put or hedge?

[Beorn]

big upside move coming up

Just keep saying that, I'm sure the market will go up if you keep doing it long enough.

I think you tried calling it from the starts of yesterday trade, hahaha

[Mad Max]

big upside move coming up

I said the  almost the same thing yesterday and look what happened. My lesson for today is not to trade on expectation but trade what the chart is telling you !  I also get the feeling that "someone" monitors this chat room and totally screws us the next day. Maybe I am just paranoid.A bad day indeed but I hope  you are right RBM as I need to recuperate and close my longs .

[RBM]

big upside move coming up

[fabes]

Well what a day... well done to the guys who went short. I will enter my longs on Monday. Have good weekend all.

[bear catcher]

Sunesis with your winning streak the past 2 months this bit of a loss is not bad.Did you buy on the low of today? Well then you should be sitting alright now.Looks green for monday if US stays up

[Sunesis]

i heard only in 2015

 

must add im very confused about the direction of all the other indices and ours

Maybe the South African interest rate talk, sparked some selling.

Our market is the only one that sold off. The rest of the markets held up. US Markets are even at all time highs.

 

That's the story off my trading accounts this week. Made money on international indices, and lost money on SA40

[davidp13]

Another hunch we might see SP500 break through 1800 and hold..Hopefully have some short covering on Monday.. Survived a not so great trading day after being 600 points down to be slightly up. Also really really didn't expect a day like this but at least I planned for it I guess. Well done TechTrader but be warned..My longs are coming to get you

 

As an aside...Why didn't anyone mention that Gill Marcus and the Reserve Bank considered raising interest rates??  Or was it just me that missed that one?

 

Another hunch we might see SP500 break through 1800 and hold..Hopefully have some short covering on Monday.. Survived a not so great trading day after being 600 points down to be slightly up. Also really really didn't expect a day like this but at least I planned for it I guess. Well done TechTrader but be warned..My longs are coming to get you

 

As an aside...Why didn't anyone mention that Gill Marcus and the Reserve Bank considered raising interest rates??  Or was it just me that missed that one?

i heard only in 2015

 

must add im very confused about the direction of all the other indices and ours

[Argento]

A, if S&P goes up tonite should we not have a good bounce come Monday from this oversold J200? your views?

O and R,

 

Looks like the US is not done yet with the uptrend, so possible we could bounce Monday!

 

But no proof from my side the low is in, next week going to be interesting...

 

Normally with the size rally we are expecting in December it needs to come from a pattern, maybe bounce Monday and put in the low Wednesday for an inverted H&S...just speculating!

 

But was a good week for the bears!

A

[Lekkerry]

Oooh, a bounce and a small divi! Thanks IG! 

[OceanWalz]

Monday is d-day and blood will flow!

 

A

A, if S&P goes up tonite should we not have a good bounce come Monday from this oversold J200? your views?

[Sunesis]

Wall Street Open Bell

 

Let the games begin

[OceanWalz]

on the S&P - same clear views from some US sites on S&P500:

 

View 1: on today:

• Yesterday's bounce went far beyond what the bears could afford. As a result it is necessary to flip switches to the bull side. 
• Key support going forward becomes 1777 at Wednesday's lows. If that breaks you could have a downside resumption. 
• Once again the 10-day moving average becomes the key support level for price to bounce off of. 
• Volume remained steady with what we've been seeing this week. 
• Volume is expected to drop off next week. 
• Historically Thanksgiving (28 Nov) trading week trends bullish.  
• VIX dropped back down to 12.66. 
• SPX has traded higher for six weeks straight on the weekly chart. 
• Also problematic for the SPX is the fact that we are trading outside the upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart. Historically when this happens, particularly after two straight weeks of such, the likelihood for a near-term sell-off increases dramatically. 
• SPX 30-minute chart broke the down trend in price action. 
• The 20-day moving average remains as a solid barometer for gauging the direction and health of the market. 
• Markets don't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

 

View 2  - not just on today:

"....While the market can continue higher, there is not a big weight hanging over it and we lack that explosive catalyst to launch us higher.  On the other hand, we are over 60-points from the 50dma and 160-points from the 200dma.  Limited upside combined with lots of open air underneath us don’t setup a favorable risk/reward.  The market likely has a date with the 50dma and either we dip down to meet it, or we grind sideways until it comes to us.  Given that setup there is not a lot of reason to own risk here if we are not getting paid for it.

 

It is a little too easy and comfortable to own this market, so it is probably a good time to take profits and wait for the next trade.  If a long insists, they could move a trailing stop up to 1,775 and see where this goes.  A short could take a stab at this with a stop above recent highs.While the market can continue higher, there is not a big weight hanging over it and we lack that explosive catalyst to launch us higher.  On the other hand, we are over 60-points from the 50dma and 160-points from the 200dma.  

 

and if we make new highs , with the candle above the BB weekly? Even if we see the highs retested and new highs made, then there are strong expectations for retracement soon, and on the weekly chart that should be a decline of 4% or more after the punch over the weekly upper bollinger band on Friday. That would be a decent fit with a test of the weekly middle bollinger band, currently at 1708. SPX weekly chart: "

 

[Redeemer]

Do you see us going lower than this A? I think the bears are tired now...santa should be coming soon (hopefully on Monday!)

 

Monday is d-day and blood will flow!

 

A

[Argento]

Monday is d-day and blood will flow!

 

A