35854 replies to this topic

[Sunesis]

Waiting for the big money to come when London opens.

We will only break to the upside when FTSE breaks 6700

[AJS]

AJS and Batman - wrong forum dudes.

 

I know, I just responded to the initial post.

[Plasma]

Grabbed 75 points

Why so early P?

Banking on a little pullback after the spike to get in lower again....also still struggling with my premature closing syndrome....and sometimes Mondays do not play ball ito e expectations ....

Edited by Plasma, 18 November 2013 - 08:53 AM.

[davidp13]

AJS and Batman - wrong forum dudes.

[The Batman]

Yeah, this consolidation and subsequent break that is imminent is surely going to push this puppy to R110 (and beyond maybe)!

Wow Seriously? My TP is sitting around R102-R104

[AJS]

+1 topped up on Friday- folks have short memories

 

Yeah, this consolidation and subsequent break that is imminent is surely going to push this puppy to R110 (and beyond maybe)!

[Plasma]

I hope everyone's rockets are re-fueled!

Went long @ 40 486 primarily based on sentiment in the east...

Grabbed 75 points

[@sirgrantfleming]

Ok Barloworld lets make some money!

+1 topped up on Friday- folks have short memories

[The Batman]

Ok Barloworld lets make some money!

[Plasma]

I hope everyone's rockets are re-fueled!

Went long @ 40 486 primarily based on sentiment in the east...

[AJS]

I hope everyone's rockets are re-fueled! 

[RBM]

http://mobile.busine...ing-commodities

Gold Bears Return Before Yellen Signals More Easing: Commodities
November 17, 2013 4:00 PM EST
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Investors got less bullish on gold as hedge funds doubled their short holdings just before prices erased a weekly loss and Janet Yellen pledged to press on with economic stimulus if confirmed as Federal Reserve chairman.
The net-long position in gold slumped 37 percent to 55,456 futures and options in the week ended Nov. 12, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show, the biggest drop since February. Short bets climbed to 54,143, the highest since mid-August, from 26,490 a week earlier. Net-bullish wagers across 18 U.S.-traded commodities dropped 12 percent to 576,224 contracts as investors became more bearish on wheat and cut their silver holdings by the most in five months.
Gold is heading for the first annual loss since 2000 after some investors lost their faith in the metal as a store of value. Global equities advanced to the highest in almost six years last week and U.S. inflation is running at 1.2 percent, half the rate of the past decade. Bullion reached a record in 2011 as the Fed pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system. Gold rallied as Yellen said Nov. 14 she’s ready to back stimulus until she sees robust economic growth.
“People were feeling very bearish before Yellen’s statement,” said Donald Selkin, who helps manage about $3 billion as the New York-based chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. “Her comments were dovish and can be seen as a postponement to tapering, which is definitely helpful for gold. But, the main reasons why gold has fallen are intact. Inflation is low, and equity markets continue to march ahead.”
Gold Rebound
Futures tumbled 3.7 percent in the five sessions before Yellen’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Prices rebounded 1.5 percent in the next two days, erasing the week’s losses and capping the biggest two-day rally since Oct. 22. Eighteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News expect prices to gain this week, nine are bearish and two neutral, the largest proportion of bulls since Oct. 4.
Gold slumped 23 percent this year on the Comex in New York, heading for the biggest annual loss since 1981. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities fell 4.6 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 18 percent, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a gauge against 10 major trading partners, rose 3.1 percent. The Bloomberg Treasury bond Index lost 2.3 percent.
Central Banks
The U.S. economy and job markets are performing “far short of their potential,” and the Fed will ensure monetary policy isn’t removed too soon, Yellen said. The comments echo other monetary officials working to combat stagnant economic growth. The European Central Bank cut its key rate on Nov. 7 in a bid to prevent slowing inflation. The same day, Czech policy makers said they were intervening in the currency market for the first time in 11 years to weaken the koruna.
Gold rose 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed expanded its balance sheet through debt purchases, fueling expectations of accelerated inflation and a weaker dollar. President Barack Obama nominated Yellen, the bank’s vice chairman, last month to succeed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, whose term expires Jan. 31.
Investor appetite for the precious metal waned this year as inflation failed to accelerate and the S&P 500 Index of shares reached all-time highs. Global bullion demand tumbled 21 percent last quarter as investors pulled 118.7 metric tons out of exchange-traded funds and similar products, World Gold Council data show.
Inflation Expectations
Inflation expectations as measured by the break-even rate for five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities fell 14 percent this year.
Global gold ETP holdings slumped 29 percent this year, reaching the lowest since 2010 last week, while more than $64 billion was wiped from the value of assets, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Prices fell 33 percent since reaching a record $1,923.70 in September 2011.
“The danger for gold is it’s in the middle of a significant bear market move, rather than having completed one,” said Michael Shaoul, chairman and chief executive officer of Marketfield Asset Management LLC, which manages $17 billion. “I don’t think Yellen has said anything of any consequence. We all knew she was dovish, and the market had worked out what she would say.”
Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson, who cut his gold holdings by more than half in the second quarter, maintained his bet on the metal over the next three months as prices rebounded, government data showed last week. Bullion rose 8.4 percent in the third quarter, the first gain in a year.
Paulson View
Paulson & Co., the largest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded product for the metal, held 10.23 million shares as of Sept. 30, unchanged from June 30, according to a government filing on Nov. 14. Billionaire George Soros took a stake in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF.
The risk of “high inflation in the future” makes gold a desirable long-term investment, Paulson & Co. has said. The view contrasts with Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Jeffrey Currie, who has said bullion is a “slam dunk” sell in 2014. The bank forecast prices at $1,100 in 12 months in an Oct. 18 report.
Bullish bets on crude oil fell 4.3 percent to 223,733 contracts, the lowest since June, the CFTC data show. West Texas Intermediate fell 0.8 percent to $93.84 a barrel, the sixth weekly decline and the longest stretch of losses in 15 years.
Crude Supplies
U.S. crude-oil stockpiles climbed for an eighth week as output expanded to the highest since January 1989, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, have unlocked supplies in shale formations in North Dakota, Texas and other states.
Speculators turned bearish on copper, with bets on price declines outnumbering wagers on gains by 8,117 contracts in futures and options. That’s the first time investors turned net-short since Sept. 17. Copper futures slumped 2.2 percent in New York last week, the biggest drop since late August.
A measure of speculative positions across 11 agricultural products was little changed at 362,838 contracts, up 0.1 percent from a week earlier, the CFTC data show. The S&P’s Agriculture Index of eight commodities tumbled 20 percent this year.
Money managers held a net-short position in wheat of 47,251 contracts, compared with 19,535 a week earlier. Investors have been betting on price declines for corn since June, and are also bearish on coffee and soybean oil. Cotton holdings fell to the lowest since December and cocoa wagers fell last week for the first time since July.
Record Crops
U.S. farmers will collect a record harvest of 13.989 billion bushels of corn this year, the Department of Agriculture said on Nov. 8. Global coffee output will exceed consumption for a fourth season in 2014, the longest glut in 11 years, the USDA estimates.
“The fundamental issue of oversupply for several commodities is a reality,” said Rob Haworth, a senior investment strategist in Seattle at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees about $110 billion of assets. “We saw some temporary interest come into commodities because of Yellen, but we don’t think the story has changed. The Fed will have to slow the stimulus at some point.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Luzi Ann Javier in New York at ljavier@bloomberg.net; Debarati Roy in New York at droy5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Millie Munshi at mmunshi@bloomberg.net

[RBM]

http://m.businessday...1118-2xpli.html

AAP
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The Australian dollar has benefited from disappointing American manufacturing data coinciding with US Federal Reserve nominee Janet Yellen's comments in favour of continuing stimulus measures.
At 0700 AEDT on Monday, the Australian dollar was trading at 93.79 US cents, up from Friday's close of 93.36 cents.
The local currency's offshore gains followed a 0.1 per cent drop in US industrial production during October, along with a surprise slide in New York manufacturing activity in November.
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Westpac New Zealand senior market strategist Imre Speizer said the Friday night release of disappointing US data coincided with Ms Yellen's pro-stimulus comments, which dented the greenback.
"It was more the fact that she did not throw out any hawkish surprises in her testimony which caused the US dollar to fall," he told AAP.
"Then on Friday night, you had some disappointing US data which fitted that theme, the idea that Janet will not be doing any tapering this year."
In the absence of any significant local data, the Australian dollar is expected to test the 94 US cent level on Monday.

Edited by RBM, 17 November 2013 - 11:09 PM.

[Plasma]

Evening all

Thanks for the posts C. Maybe this one will help as well - http://www.thetrendf...nd-trading.html

So who has the functioning crystal ball for this week? Please tells us what is going to happend? We ended on a high, but im worried about those revenge sellers out there.

Not going to venture a call for tomorrow...will deal with what I see

[davidp13]

Evening all

 

Thanks for the posts C. Maybe this one will help as well - http://www.thetrendf...nd-trading.html

 

So who has the functioning crystal ball for this week? Please tells us what is going to happend? We ended on a high, but im worried about those revenge sellers out there.

[Olymphia]

Chubby

Thanks for the reads below, may we all take the good out of them.

O

[Plasma]

Thanks Chubby....some good food for thought.

One thing I struggle with is to maintain my journal.....should add to my areas of improvement!

Edited by Plasma, 17 November 2013 - 09:02 PM.

[Plasma]

Hi C

Stats for last 115 trades.

68% Winning......32% Losing

Average pips Winning = 25 ........Average pips Losing = 63

The following context applies:

After having been on a losing streak for some time earlier this year, I took a break to re-evaluate strategy and to mentally recuperate. Took all my remaining money out of trading accounts and placed it in a safe place, in order to reduce stress about having funds available for future family requirements...and to build that up through normal monthly savings.....purely a mental health improvement strategy.

Tried to trade with a very small amount on a month to month basis, and saw that it was not feasible after 2 months or so. Then, since beginning Nov 13, used a slightly larger amount to trade. At the moment quite positive....happy with my trading plan. Mentally quite strong. Emotional reaction levels to trades significantly reduced. Confidence in ability to make up to 100 pips a day has increased. Therefore, with my quantum size account, I am confident that I can build this up to such a level where all previous lost money has been recuperated and I can tell my wife what I am busy with. LOL!

Areas to improve.

Staying in a winning trade longer.
Minimise occurrences where I deviate from plan

Faster mental switching between bull and bear trend changes
Minimise revenge trades
Reduce over trading levels
Combinations of the above

Must still to an analysis of when most of my losing trades occur. It has happened frequently that I was strong in the money in the earlier parts of the day, then losing all or most thereafter...and then making up some later again.

Overall I am in a happy space atm and with some further tweaking and continuous learning through experience it can only get better. Close to the point of becoming consistently profitable.

My appreciation to all posters on this forum .... loving it!

Thanks P...Will try and reply later...but off the bat on those percentages are excellent(Average broker house only has a 40% successful trade rate) but your average trade gains is in not so lekker territory. iow..you win 7 out of ten trades but the it just takes the other 3 losses to wipe out your profit. Points to cutting you profits to early and letting your losses run too long? Not trying to teach or preach but we have been coming along a long long time

Your assessment spot on .... My first area of improvement is relevant as per your statement .....my losses high since I do not trade with large SL margin due to small account. A bit of a constraint...

[Plasma]

P..Just a quick question...to you or anyone else..what is your average pips per winning trade..and what it your average pip per losing trade? ...No pressure if you do not want to answer it

Hi C

 

Stats for last 115 trades.

 

68% Winning......32% Losing

 

Average pips Winning = 25 ........Average pips Losing = 63

 

The following context applies:

 

After having been on a losing streak for some time earlier this year, I took a break to re-evaluate strategy and to mentally recuperate.  Took all my remaining money out of trading accounts and placed it in a safe place, in order to reduce stress about having funds available for future family requirements...and to build that up through normal monthly savings.....purely a mental health improvement strategy.  

 

Tried to trade with a very small amount on a month to month basis, and saw that it was not feasible after 2 months or so.  Then, since beginning Nov 13, used a slightly larger amount to trade.  At the moment quite positive....happy with my trading plan.  Mentally quite strong.  Emotional reaction levels to trades significantly reduced.  Confidence in ability to make up to 100 pips a day has increased.  Therefore, with my quantum size account, I am confident that I can build this up to such a level where all previous lost money has been recuperated and I can tell my wife what I am busy with.  LOL!   

 

Areas to improve.

 

   Staying in a winning trade longer.

   Minimise occurrences where I deviate from plan
   Faster mental switching between bull and bear trend changes

   Minimise revenge trades

   Reduce over trading levels

   Combinations of the above

 

Must still to an analysis of when most of my losing trades occur.  It has happened frequently that I was strong in the money in the earlier parts of the day, then losing all or most thereafter...and then making up some later again.   

 

Overall I am in a happy space atm and with some further tweaking and continuous learning through experience it can only get better.  Close to the point of becoming consistently profitable.

 

My appreciation to all posters on this forum .... loving it!

 

[Plasma]

im out - 150 in the bag on SA40 and not cause it is 2300 cause im drunk from all the wine and beer after a very very long week

see ya all monday morning very very early

And at 40475 we are bang on the button where we said we would be! Well done..Enjoy and a few for me!

There we have it! Well done to all that made some mula!!! Cheers!