35854 replies to this topic

[Beorn]

I'm short @ 41009

not looking for a lot, just a scalp with a tight stop.

As long as FED is printing we will keep climbing, no stopping this train.

[AJS]

Awesome, thanks S, that is quite cool!

 

As a side note: Struggling to sleep? 

[Sunesis]

Stock market trend

 

Remember, the market likes to trend in the direction which causes the most investor pain.

Since the stock market bottom in 2009 equities has been rising which is great, but this train could be setting up to do the unthinkable. What do I mean? Well, let’s take a look at the two possible outcomes.

 

The Bear Market Trend & Investor Negative Credit

The S&P500 has been forming a large broadening formation over the last 13 years. The recent run to new highs and record amounts of money being borrowed to buy stocks on margin has me skeptical about prices continuing higher.

 

Take a look at the chart below which I found on the ZeroHedge website last week. This chart shows the SP500 index relative to positive and negative investor credit balances. As you can see we are starting to reach some extreme leverage again on the stock market. I do feel we are close to a strong correction or possible bear market, but we must remember that a correction may be all we get. It does not take much for this type of borrowed money to be washed clean and removed. A simple 2-6 week correction will do this and then stocks will be free to continue higher.

 

Monthly Bearish Trend Outlook

Below you can see the simple logical move that should occur next for stocks based on the average bull market lasts four years (it has been four years) and the fact the negative credit is so high again.

 

Also, poor earnings continue to be released for many individual names across all sectors of the market. While corporate profits may be holding up or growing in some of the big name stocks, revenues are not. This means the big guys are simply laying off workers and cutting costs still.

Overall the stock market is entering its strongest period of the year. So things could get choppy here with strong up and down days until Jan. After that stocks could start to top out and eventually confirm a down trend. Keep in mind, major market tops are a process. They take 6-12 months to form so do not think this is a simple short trade. The market will be choppy until a confirmed down trend is in place.

 

Monthly BULLISH Trend Outlook

 

This scenario is the least likely one floating around market participant’s minds. It just does not seem possible with the global issues trying to be resolved. With the Federal Reserve continuing to print tens of billions of dollars each month inflating the stocks market this bullish scenario has some legs to stand on and makes for the perfect “Wall of Worry” for stocks to climb.

The US dollar is likely to continue falling in the long run, but I do not think it will collapse. Instead, it will likely grind lower and trade almost in a sideways pattern for years to come.

 

Major Stock Market Trend Conclusion:

In summary, I remain bullish with the trend, but once price and the technical indicators confirm a down trend I will happily jump ships and take advantage of lower prices.

[joker]

Taking a trade soon after a loosing trade believing that you can revenge the lost, normally ending up loosing more...all emotional, no proper assessment in the process

Ah I've done a few of those. Though I'm trying out something new now. I keep some cash for a second entry, so if my long backfires and the points start falling, I don't sell, but instead buy again, with the new dip. It's helped recoup my losses a few times

[Plasma]

Today was a typical old Plasma day.....had green trades this morning, but did not let the winning trades run properly. This is one last major hurdle for me to overcome. Then, linked to this was having the afternoon dip gobbling up my morning profits with my S/L being hit and taking a revenge trade. Need to get that under control as well.


Posting this so I can get a kick or two in the backside.

What's a revenge trade?

Taking a trade soon after a loosing trade believing that you can revenge the lost, normally ending up loosing more...all emotional, no proper assessment in the process

[joker]

Today was a typical old Plasma day.....had green trades this morning, but did not let the winning trades run properly. This is one last major hurdle for me to overcome. Then, linked to this was having the afternoon dip gobbling up my morning profits with my S/L being hit and taking a revenge trade. Need to get that under control as well.

Posting this so I can get a kick or two in the backside.

 What's a revenge trade?

[Plasma]

Today was a typical old Plasma day.....had green trades this morning, but did not let the winning trades run properly. This is one last major hurdle for me to overcome. Then, linked to this was having the afternoon dip gobbling up my morning profits with my S/L being hit and taking a revenge trade. Need to get that under control as well.

Posting this so I can get a kick or two in the backside.

[joker]

Added a long on the dip @ 40620

I'm with you. Bought 3 longs at 40600. 

[OceanWalz]

Yip!

 

A

Thanks A! much appreciated

[Redeemer]

Added a long on the dip @ 40620

 

What's the verdict guys? Go in for a long tonight? I missed the dip today. Just made 27 points on a rapid short. I feel starved of action.

[Argento]

youre still think were on target for green tomorrow? even with the current red down bend??

Yip!

 

A

[joker]

What's the verdict guys? Go in for a long tonight? I missed the dip today. Just made 27 points on a rapid short. I feel starved of action.

[OceanWalz]

She made a new high today so bulls are not finished yet, tomorrow should be a good green day and I'm then going to look on taking profits around 16:00, will then wait for the top confirmation (possibly into next week) for a good short position!

 

A

youre still think were on target for green tomorrow? even with the current red down bend??

[Argento]

She made a new high today so bulls are not finished yet, tomorrow should be a good green day and I'm then going to look on taking profits around 16:00, will then wait for the top confirmation (possibly into next week) for a good short position!

 

A

[OceanWalz]

Those who bought the dips today well done. I'm on a week break just spending my money just in case the market takes it back.

Buying a few assets here and there. It's part of my trading plan. After consecutive wins in a market, you should take at least a week break .........

Very good advice about having a break S

 - my problem is I have been waiting for the doldrums to lull on the market so I can go to coast and relax but after the last month or two ,tired and my account smiling (curtesy by Mr market) - I still see the task uncompleted as there appears to be another little itty bitty to 41100 plus a sardine lenght followed then I have to be ready for partaking in the much spoken , and to me inevitable , drop (more than just a dip) next weekish sometime (Argento suggest a 800ish  points down on the Future) and then I can finally go long again , and then I can have that lovely relaxing December, for what I think will be that steady grind up 42000 mark even??--

 

any comments - at moment the STerm up gain is much less than the STerm down threat and hence although I have net T40Futures Longs  I am currently 80% Cash - a bit too safe perhaps but definitely not a pig either?

[Redeemer]

The humongous spreads on IG, are honestly nauseating!

[Redeemer]

But Bear...I thought we agreed you were done for the day...and thought you'd be chowing the profits as we speak

 

First short for a while and bam loose money

[Sunesis]

Those who bought the dips today well done. I'm on a week break just spending my money just in case the market takes it back.

Buying a few assets here and there. It's part of my trading plan. After consecutive wins in a market, you should take at least a week break and spend your cash.

 

But i'm keeping an eye on the market. With a 30 year old whisky on one hand. No trading until Monday.

 

Bears will continue to hate. That's all they can do for now.

 

Keep buying them dips.        

 

[bear catcher]

First short for a while and bam loose money

[AJS]

<music_note> aan die einde van die reënboog... <music_note> A van Rooyen!

 

My ore gaan bloei!