35854 replies to this topic

[BBW]

Normal stocks i look for stocks which have high demand, and have sold off because of news and noise. For example SAB,MTN,VOD and Discovery recently.

The news will bring the stocks down. But the fundamentals wont keep it there. Also look for how the stock performs when other stocks are falling. Lets take Sibanye Gold.

The gold price has been falling, and also other gold stocks, but Sibanye gold keeps going up. That shows you the resilience of the stock. Take Mondi it hardly pullsback, even in danger times.

The are alot of thing to look at with stocks.

 

Look for stocks with less exposure to South Africa and thet should dominate their sector. They must also have an advantage over other companies. When companies have an edge in thier sector it makes it harder for other companies to compete with it. Even a big global company in the sector cannot just come and take over Africa, they have to compete with these companies. As you have seen with Walmart, GlaxoSmith. These type of companies are a buy on every dip.

 

For example:

Shoprite- biggest retailer in Africa

Standard bank- biggest bank in Africa

FirstRand- Most innovative bank in the world

MTN- biggest telecom provide in Africa

Naspers- Biggest media company in Africa

Illovo- Largest sugar producer in Africa

Mondi- largets paper producer in Africa

Sasol- best with GTL technology

SAB

Tigerbrands

Richemont

Aspen

 

The fundamentals of the companies don't change.

African exposure is the only way to invest with this companies.

 

Smart investors are going for frontier markets like, Nigeria,Ghana,Kenya,Mozambique,Tanzania,Zambia

They need the Top40 to be able to get to these markets.

South Africa is a saturated market now. 

 

 

No wonder ALSI keeps going up.

 

So i go bargain hunting, when a giant has fallen.

Thanks for this; been learning a LOT from you, e.a., on this forum in the past month/year. Hope to one day also add more value here as well, with all the lessons I've learned. (Somebody wants to start a topic?)

Edited by BBW, 16 October 2013 - 01:46 PM.

[Sunesis]

Message to the Bears:

 

 

The most important skill – and most extraordinary one – is the simple ability to change your mind when the facts change.

 

Don't fight the trend

 

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=AM9V9GEjoy4

[Sunesis]

Sunesis, do you apply your "Buy the Dip" strategy to normal share CFD's as well, or do you apply a little more fundamental analysis on individual shares than plain "Price-action" strategy?

Normal stocks i look for stocks which have high demand, and have sold off because of news and noise. For example SAB,MTN,VOD and Discovery recently.

The news will bring the stocks down. But the fundamentals wont keep it there. Also look for how the stock performs when other stocks are falling. Lets take Sibanye Gold.

The gold price has been falling, and also other gold stocks, but Sibanye gold keeps going up. That shows you the resilience of the stock. Take Mondi it hardly pullsback, even in danger times.

The are alot of thing to look at with stocks.

 

Look for stocks with less exposure to South Africa and thet should dominate their sector. They must also have an advantage over other companies. When companies have an edge in thier sector it makes it harder for other companies to compete with it. Even a big global company in the sector cannot just come and take over Africa, they have to compete with these companies. As you have seen with Walmart, GlaxoSmith. These type of companies are a buy on every dip.

 

For example:

Shoprite- biggest retailer in Africa

Standard bank- biggest bank in Africa

FirstRand- Most innovative bank in the world

MTN- biggest telecom provide in Africa

Naspers- Biggest media company in Africa

Illovo- Largest sugar producer in Africa

Mondi- largets paper producer in Africa

Sasol- best with GTL technology

SAB

Tigerbrands

Richemont

Aspen

 

The fundamentals of the companies don't change.

African exposure is the only way to invest with this companies.

 

Smart investors are going for frontier markets like, Nigeria,Ghana,Kenya,Mozambique,Tanzania,Zambia

They need the Top40 to be able to get to these markets.

South Africa is a saturated market now. 

 

 

No wonder ALSI keeps going up.

 

So i go bargain hunting, when a giant has fallen.

[Mafuta24]

I always wonder if there is guys out there with deeeep deeeeeep pockets that is playing Top 40 (Individuals)

 

Capital of R 5Mil - R10 Mil. Surely they would be able to make a killing

 

For example: (and all they need is 50 pips per day, or even less)

 

They can play the following and all that they will have to do is:

 

R50 x 5 = R250

 

R250 x 50 pips = R12 500

 

R12500 x 20 Days = R250 000pm

 

There is a lot of scenarios that one can work out and post...... Money makes Money in this game.

 

Guess easier said than done... but it still lets me wonder  

 

[Lekkerry]

14 minutes and 50+ points = 

INTRADAY: MACD, RSI and candles lining-up for a nice push upwards again.

[Lekkerry]

Wat's dit?

 

What..? No stochastic??

[Plasma]

INTRADAY: MACD, RSI and candles lining-up for a nice push upwards again.

What..? No stochastic??

[Lekkerry]

INTRADAY: MACD, RSI and candles lining-up for a nice push upwards again.

Edited by Lekkerry, 16 October 2013 - 01:11 PM.

[BBW]

Richemont,BHP,Aspen,Sasol,Mondi,SAB have not come to the party today.

 

These are big hitters and weigh a lot on Top40

 

When that happens expect to see big moves up.

 

For now i am sitting out and counting my money.

 

James B. Rogers, Jr. (Jim  Rogers)  ‘The man in the bow tie’

One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do. Most people – not that I’m better than most people – always have to be playing; they always have to be doing something. They make a big play and say, “Boy, am I smart, I just tripled my money.” Then they rush out and have to do something else with that money. They can’t just sit there and wait for something new to develop.

 

I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. Even people who lose money in the market say, “I just lost my money, now I have to do something to make it back.” No, you don’t. You should sit there until you find something.

I really like the part above where Jim Rogers says “I just wait until there is money lying in the corner…” because that really sums up  my own personal trading style. Rogers is dead on with the above quotes; most traders do WAY too much…there is nothing wrong with doing nothing if there isn’t anything to do! In other words…don’t force a trade if an obvious one isn’t there, it’s better to save your capital for a solid opportunity that’s just around the corner.

Sunesis, do you apply your "Buy the Dip" strategy to normal share CFD's as well, or do you apply a little more fundamental analysis on individual shares than plain "Price-action" strategy?

[Sunesis]

Not saying they are bad brokers but if you play those R50/R10 point CFD's (R7000) you bound to get seriously hurt in this market, these 200 point swings after close and at auction times is very risky...!

 

Even warrants is high risk instruments and should only be played when you have experience and sure about your strategy...that works!

 

Man I lost serious money in my early days..was not lekker with a lot of sleepless nights!

 

A

I blew my 1st account in 3 days trading forex.

[Sunesis]

Richemont,BHP,Aspen,Sasol,Mondi,SAB have not come to the party today.

 

These are big hitters and weigh a lot on Top40

 

When that happens expect to see big moves up.

 

For now i am sitting out and counting my money.

 

James B. Rogers, Jr. (Jim  Rogers)  ‘The man in the bow tie’

One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do. Most people – not that I’m better than most people – always have to be playing; they always have to be doing something. They make a big play and say, “Boy, am I smart, I just tripled my money.” Then they rush out and have to do something else with that money. They can’t just sit there and wait for something new to develop.

 

I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. Even people who lose money in the market say, “I just lost my money, now I have to do something to make it back.” No, you don’t. You should sit there until you find something.

I really like the part above where Jim Rogers says “I just wait until there is money lying in the corner…” because that really sums up  my own personal trading style. Rogers is dead on with the above quotes; most traders do WAY too much…there is nothing wrong with doing nothing if there isn’t anything to do! In other words…don’t force a trade if an obvious one isn’t there, it’s better to save your capital for a solid opportunity that’s just around the corner.

[Argento]

Do we have any other brokers on South Africa that are better.

Not saying they are bad brokers but if you play those R50/R10 point CFD's (R7000) you bound to get seriously hurt in this market, these 200 point swings after close and at auction times is very risky...!

 

Even warrants is high risk instruments and should only be played when you have experience and sure about your strategy...that works!

 

Man I lost serious money in my early days..was not lekker with a lot of sleepless nights!

 

A

[Mafuta24]

In my opinion IG is the best and only CFD provider one should use.... "In my opinion"

 

Who makes use of GT247 - Those guys have enjoyed a big punch in the face in Noseweek

 

 

[Sunesis]

Hi A,

 

I truly enjoy your views and inputs.

 

I agree 100% with you on IG - Consistent definitely not, however it provides opportunity, and it was my starting point and I have a soft spot for them.  I guess, you get used to the system that you are using, and become accustomed to their pricing etc..... I have since using IG, diversified in the markets and systems that I am Trading. Also, on Top 40, I always try to trade between 9 – 5, should I leave a trade open and there is an opportunity, then it should be a calculated risk that I am willing to take....

Do we have any other brokers on South Africa that are better.

[Mafuta24]

Hi A,

 

I truly enjoy your views and inputs.

 

I agree 100% with you on IG - Consistent definitely not, however it provides opportunity, and it was my starting point and I have a soft spot for them.  I guess, you get used to the system that you are using, and become accustomed to their pricing etc..... I have since using IG, diversified in the markets and systems that I am Trading. Also, on Top 40, I always try to trade between 9 – 5, should I leave a trade open and there is an opportunity, then it should be a calculated risk that I am willing to take....

 

 

 

To focus on the charts...looks like she is consolidating for the last push up, should pop and drop with the debt ceiling resolution come friday just above the previous high before the return move next week!

 

Something to note..TOP40 is in a strong bulltrend and US is still in a downtrend with their charts not looking good, so don't be surprised if we continue north (bumpy) into October beginning November while the US continue south, we should join them in November for a good pullback (1000+). Our market is stronger in the second half of they year than the US...based on the commodities cycles impact/ ZAR!

 

My 2c on IG, don't know of a guy that is consistant successful with those products, just too wild and does not reflect the true price, especially overnight...and more so with scalping!  Just saying....if you have deep pockets then guess it can work!

 

Overall the markets are actually very bullish longer term as most has broken out from their 2007 highs and busy with retests, so don't be surprised to see this bull march on into next year!

 

Big money lies in the big swings folks!

 

A

[Sunesis]

Stanley Druckenmiller

I’ve learned many things from him [George Soros], but perhaps the most significant is that it’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.

The above quote is reference to George Soros who mentored Druckenmiller for a while.  Most traders get far too concerned about the number of winners they have compared to losers when really they should totally forget about that number and instead focus on their overall risk / reward. In other words, how much money are they making for every Rand they have risked.

[Argento]

To focus on the charts...looks like she is consolidating for the last push up, should pop and drop with the debt ceiling resolution come friday just above the previous high before the return move next week!

 

Something to note..TOP40 is in a strong bulltrend and US is still in a downtrend with their charts not looking good, so don't be surprised if we continue north (bumpy) into October beginning November while the US continue south, we should join them in November for a good pullback (1000+). Our market is stronger in the second half of they year than the US...based on the commodities cycles impact/ ZAR!

 

My 2c on IG, don't know of a guy that is consistant successful with those products, just too wild and does not reflect the true price, especially overnight...and more so with scalping!  Just saying....if you have deep pockets then guess it can work!

 

Overall the markets are actually very bullish longer term as most has broken out from their 2007 highs and busy with retests, so don't be surprised to see this bull march on into next year!

 

Big money lies in the big swings folks!

 

A

[delta66]

making more $$$ that I would have made in 10 years if I had invested in a small business.

 

M

well done M..also had option of business venture or trade 4 years back...never looked back and never will

[Sunesis]

Ed Seykota

The quote above by Ed Seykota refers to the fact that you won’t stick around very long if you continue to trade too “bold”. By “bold” he basically means risking too much per trade and / or over-trading…you can only be overly bold in the markets for so long…it will eventually catch up to you.

The key to long-term survival and prosperity has a lot to do with the money management techniques incorporated into the technical system. There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders.

In the above quotes, Seykota is talking about how he doesn’t really use fundamental data to make his trading decisions; he is almost purely a technical trader. I agree with this totally and my price action trading strategiesand trading philosophy reflect the belief that all fundamentals are factored into price and you can save a lot of time and stress by just learning to analyze price and avoiding fundamentals.

Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them “funny-mentals”.

I am primarily a trend trader with touches of hunches based on about twenty years of experience. In order of importance to me are: (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell. Those are the three primary component of my trading. Way down in a very distant fourth place are my fundamental ideas and, quite likely, on balance, they have cost me money.

Essentially, Seykota is saying “Don’t become emotional about losses”. Dwelling on a lost trade is only going to cause negative emotions and tempt you to try and “make back” the money you lost. Forget about your last losing trade and move on.

I prefer not to dwell on past situations. I tend to cut bad trades as soon as possible, forget them, and then move on to new opportunities.

I feel my success comes from my love of the markets. I am not a casual trader. It is my life. I have a passion for trading. It is not merely a hobby or even a career choice for me. There is no question that this is what I am supposed to do with my life.

Whilst you don’t need to be glued to your screen all day and night, you do need to have some passion and interest in trading and markets, otherwise you will be forcing yourself to trade just because you want to make money. People who succeed at trading are those that have a genuine interest in the markets and in the art and skill of trading.

Having a quote machine is like having a slot machine on your desk – you end up feeding it all day long. I get my price data after the close each day.

Here, Seykota is talking about end of day data. I’ve been teaching traders the power and simplicity of trading “end of day” for years. It’s the perfect option for most traders, especially those first starting out or those who want to trade successfully with a day job.

Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.

Seykota is talking about how people tend to indirectly let their emotions control their trading. He talks about one trader who “seems to get in near the start of every substantial bull move and works his $10 thousand up to a quarter of a million in a couple of months. Then he changes his personality and loses it all back again. This process is repeated like clockwork.” Many traders don’t even know that their emotions are guiding their trading more than logic or rationality, thus, they cannot keep their winnings or control their losers…because they are doing what feels good…thus they are “getting what they want”, if only temporarily.

[Sunesis]

This is my story.....

 

After studying and being employed for some time, I seeked interest in a business venture, to generate a part-time income, apart from my 9 - 5 salary. A friend of mine, who is in the Investment industry, introduced me to IG and Top 40 as an alternative to invest in a small business.

 

I made some calculations, and decided on an amount I was willing to loose, should I terribly fail at this....... (luckily I am a info and knowledge freak and I started to study and read anything I could get my hands on).

 

Up until now, it is going okay, making more $$$ that I would have made in 10 years if I had invested in a small business. At the end of the day, Trading is much more fun, you learn a lot more, it teaches you discipline, and the best of all... YOU DETERMINE YOUR OWN SALARY   

 

So that’s me... Once again, thanks for everyone's advice and comments.

 

M

Nice, very nice