35854 replies to this topic

[bear catcher]

Nope long maybe below 46000, bulls going to get hammered

[BlythZ]

You said it, brother. 

 

What's my prediction for the shorts? 

 

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E

 

Happy trading!

Roundtree, are you revising your entry point for your long order? 

[delta66]

Is there a dividend today?

64p on cash @16h40

[Plasma]

My sitting tight confusion syndrome in play again this morning....from a nice green position earlier to a beautiful red one...

[mx125]

Is there a dividend today?

[Dip Trader]

went long 46200 

[bear catcher]

Nice 180 point sculp, selling the am rallies been very very profitable will buy under 46150 if we get there.

[K~~]

Spreads as wide as the Grand Canyon again this AM..

[Roundtree]

Its catch up time..and shorts are bound to be shaking soon

 

 

Doctor copper is also just getting started..we are primed for our move up

 

You said it, brother. 

 

What's my prediction for the shorts? 

 

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E

 

Happy trading!

[gannet]

Another nice touch on the speed line.

 

 

Attached Files

•  alsi srl.png   207.91KB   10 downloads

[HDB]

Another thing, the Bears have not been able to close the gap @45650 down below so far, despite a meaningful assault. Bullish...

K that will only happen once everyone is bullish!! This is how the game is played!!

[K~~]

Another thing, the Bears have not been able to close the gap @45650 down below so far, despite a meaningful assault. Bullish...

[K~~]

The last time the S&P500 reached a record we were in the 470 range. The pound was + R18.00. If we see a bit of weakness in the Rand to the pound we are surely going North

The long tails to the downside on the dailies also points to "bargain" hunting. Wonder whether all the sellers have done their thing, and it's time for the buyers to get the upper hand?

[mx125]

The last time the S&P500 reached a record we were in the 470 range. The pound was + R18.00. If we see a bit of weakness in the Rand to the pound we are surely going North

[mx125]

I don't actually know, but I'm a paranoid trader.

 

Between 08h30 - 09h00 support was 46545. After the London market opened we broke through support. Now my understanding is that professionals only buy at the best possible price, which is support or below. They also encourage us, the dumb money, to trade breakouts, which means we should buy/sell at a discount. When everyone is selling because we've broken support - whether they are trading the breakout to the downside or capitulating - somebody has to buy those contracts and that somebody is the market maker. The professional. We cannot all be shorting the breakout (opening sell positions below support) without buyers on the other side of our trades.

 

When you and I, the dumb money, are panicking the professionals buy. Based on the premise that professionals never close at a loss, my trading strategy says I should expect the smart money to go back to that support to sell those contracts they bought from me. Anything below that price level will not be acceptable to them. Traders call it a "retest". But here's a question; a retest of what? What are they retesting? Why is it necessary to retest? I say we're being fooled; the retest is actually the professional selling those bought contracts back to me, the dumb money. 

 

Now that support - 46545 - has not been "retested" since we broke it. In layman's terms, there's a possibility that he hasn't sold his long contracts. He's closed some but he probably still has contracts between 46439 (today's high) - 46545 to sell. Somehow he will get a sucker to buy and that will probably be the same guy who went short yesterday at 45783, and capitulated this morning when it looked like we were going higher. He can also gap the market up tomorrow morning and trigger all those stops above. But someone will be left holding the bag! That's just how the market works, unfortunately.

 

To answer your question, I think he's been probably buying since 46545, because retail traders sold that breakout. On the other hand I cannot say with any certainty that he's sold everything he bought seeing there's support above us at which he is yet to close (what traders call a retest). That makes me nervous. It makes me think that I still have a sizable amount of risk of getting squeezed. We have to go back to that support to eliminate the risk first, then I can consider a short. Until I've seen the retest, that is until the professionals have closed, I cannot pretend to have an edge. 

 

I made a call earlier that we may be going down, but I didn't have the balls to put my money where my mouth is. Why? I just didn't have an edge. Someone will probably make money from his/her short (or even worse, lose money) because they thought "Let me punt a short here," but that's not how I look at it. 

 

I'm not saying that mine's the only system that works, brother, but it's the only one that makes sense to me in terms of risk management. 

 

Happy trading

Appologies for only reacting now. Thanks for the detailed answer Roundtree, much appreciated.

[TellyTubby]

Here comes the drop

Doctor copper is also just getting started..we are primed for our move up

[bear catcher]

Here comes the drop

[Roundtree]

A and RT, it seems to me the SPX is well overbought and a retracement is due I think anywhere from 1991 to 2000 ( judging from past uptrend lines) the obvious target being the 1965/70 line and this say 15 pt drop will keep the bull trend healthy to say 2015 at least then to see if its up or down from there -

but then JSE seems to be disconnected to the civilized world at moment ( but $ strength should underpin the resources for moment). but yes that target of A appears realistic to me as precursor to or piggy back on that SPX retracement , but also  RT's (and Vs  equal C down-leg  at 45565 as well at some stage jsut dont know when, doubt tomorrow though)

Hi O, 

 

I think the S&P futures chart looks "semi-bullish". Unfortunately, since my reasons are based purely on price action, I don't think you have the time to read, then look at the candle, back to my long winded explanation, back to candles, etc.

 

In a nutshell I think the S&P will continue with the breakout; I have no idea how far that breakout will go. It is definitely not overbought, brother. With regards to the ALSI, I'm only bullish up to 46545. I cannot speculate as to what will happen thereafter. There's also that ominous gap at 37794 which  could change everything.

 

I could be wrong, of course.

 

Happy days.

Edited by Roundtree, 21 August 2014 - 09:26 PM.

[K~~]

I have been bust with the market's for about 5 years and just use a small part of my portfolio to trade.

Cool! Then just do what you have been doing to make your money. Don't experiment with a new strategy now!

[Dip Trader]

I have been bust with the market's for about 5 years and just use a small part of my portfolio to trade.

sorry busy