35854 replies to this topic

[Dip Trader]

Full time trading? How long have you been practising?

 

My take: If you cannot consistently make money for at least two years part time, then you won't make it full time. At least not if you don't have a trust fund or other source of income to sustain your lifestyle! 

 

K

I have been bust with the market's for about 5 years and just use a small part of my portfolio to trade.

[K~~]

Thank you Delta66 for your response i still have allot to learn,started full time trading last week   

Full time trading? How long have you been practising?

 

My take: If you cannot consistently make money for at least two years part time, then you won't make it full time. At least not if you don't have a trust fund or other source of income to sustain your lifestyle! 

 

K

[Dip Trader]

it depends on value of contract played(R50/R10)  on a flat day i'll take 50p scalps trading full sized contract/s happily. otherwise 100p-150p on mini/s is for me..a good day.  targets differ for everyone but these are roughly mine.

 

if/when scalp trading full sized contracts on a daily basis - be careful, have a line in the sand(strict stops).....and "stick" to it. 

Thank you Delta66 for your response i still have allot to learn,started full time trading last week   

[delta66]

Just a quick one how many pips a day would you guy's feel is enough for day trader and how many times a day would you like to trade ?

it depends on value of contract played(R50/R10)  on a flat day i'll take 50p scalps trading full sized contract/s happily. otherwise 100p-150p on mini/s is for me..a good day.  targets differ for everyone but these are roughly mine.

 

if/when scalp trading full sized contracts on a daily basis - be careful, have a line in the sand(strict stops).....and "stick" to it. 

[OceanWalz]

A and RT, it seems to me the SPX is well overbought and a retracement is due I think anywhere from 1991 to 2000 ( judging from past uptrend lines) the obvious target being the 1965/70 line and this say 15 pt drop will keep the bull trend healthy to say 2015 at least then to see if its up or down from there -

but then JSE seems to be disconnected to the civilized world at moment ( but $ strength should underpin the resources for moment). but yes that target of A appears realistic to me as precursor to or piggy back on that SPX retracement , but also  RT's (and Vs  equal C down-leg  at 45565 as well at some stage jsut dont know when, doubt tomorrow though)

[HDB]

Just a quick one how many pips a day would you guy's feel is enough for day trader and how many times a day would you like to trade ?

Thats where your own money management dictates!!

 

U should actually be asking the question...Just how many pips a day u prepared to lose....

[Dip Trader]

Just a quick one how many pips a day would you guy's feel is enough for day trader and how many times a day would you like to trade ?

[Argento]

I doubt it, A.

 

Here's my reasoning:

 

All the other markets are flying; although it doesn't mean much, it's still a bullish case.

 

This morning we went down straight after the open and then turned in the middle of nowhere (45988), locking in a lot of bears once again. That's another bullish case.

 

From about 11h30, the market has been punching through support, buying and locking in more bears who were planning to trade that breakout south. Bullish.

 

The support at 46545 still has not been retested. This has been left open for much longer that yesterdays low. I suspect the longs would have to close first as they have been open for much longer than the shorts. That's if there is such a thing as honour among thieves. Bullish.

 

How is the retail trader positioning himself right now, long or short? I think they are short. Bullish.

 

We just might go back to buy at 46206, which is a bullish case. 

 

All in all, I think tomorrow we'll see that elusive 46545 after all. I may be wrong, which would not be the first time.

 

Happy trading.

We have seen sell-offs every morning since Wednesday, and usually these consolidation bands ends the same as a correction, with a full red candle impulsive move down...that 45800 should hold though!

 

But let's see what tomorrow brings brother...the 5H macd looking nasty!

 

The bigger picture still bullish!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 21 August 2014 - 05:44 PM.

[Roundtree]

Rowntree thanks for taking time and effort with those long postings!! It certainly has opened my eyes to another side of the market!!

Very very interesting readings...

Thanks, brother. I really appreciate that.

 

All we can do is share and learn from each other and I'm certainly learning from you and the other posters.

 

Happy days, brother.

[HDB]

I doubt it, A.

 

Here's my reasoning:

 

All the other markets are flying; although it doesn't mean much, it's still a bullish case.

 

This morning we went down straight after the open and then turned in the middle of nowhere (45988), locking in a lot of bears once again. That's another bullish case.

 

From about 11h30, the market has been punching through support, buying and locking in more bears who were planning to trade that breakout south. Bullish.

 

The support at 46545 still has not been retested. This has been left open for much longer that yesterdays low. I suspect the longs would have to close first as they have been open for much longer than the shorts. That's if there is such a thing as honour among thieves. Bullish.

 

How is the retail trader positioning himself right now, long or short? I think they are short. Bullish.

 

We just might go back to buy at 46206, which is a bullish case. 

 

All in all, I think tomorrow we'll see that elusive 46545 after all. I may be wrong, which would not be the first time.

 

Happy trading.

 

 

Rowntree thanks for taking time and effort with those long postings!! It certainly has opened my eyes to another side of the market!!

Very very interesting readings...

[Roundtree]

Looking as if we are going to give that 45800 level a shot tomorrrow again, my longs waiting there!

 

A

I doubt it, A.

 

Here's my reasoning:

 

All the other markets are flying; although it doesn't mean much, it's still a bullish case.

 

This morning we went down straight after the open and then turned in the middle of nowhere (45988), locking in a lot of bears once again. That's another bullish case.

 

From about 11h30, the market has been punching through support, buying and locking in more bears who were planning to trade that breakout south. Bullish.

 

The support at 46545 still has not been retested. This has been left open for much longer that yesterdays low. I suspect the longs would have to close first as they have been open for much longer than the shorts. That's if there is such a thing as honour among thieves. Bullish.

 

How is the retail trader positioning himself right now, long or short? I think they are short. Bullish.

 

We just might go back to buy at 46206, which is a bullish case. 

 

All in all, I think tomorrow we'll see that elusive 46545 after all. I may be wrong, which would not be the first time.

 

Happy trading.

Edited by Roundtree, 21 August 2014 - 05:27 PM.

[Vertebrae]

At 10.60 the R/$ becomes a long term buy - target lies beyond 12

[Roundtree]

Thanks for the explanation it makes logical sense. How do you know they bought at the 46545 level?.

I don't actually know, but I'm a paranoid trader.

 

Between 08h30 - 09h00 support was 46545. After the London market opened we broke through support. Now my understanding is that professionals only buy at the best possible price, which is support or below. They also encourage us, the dumb money, to trade breakouts, which means we should buy/sell at a discount. When everyone is selling because we've broken support - whether they are trading the breakout to the downside or capitulating - somebody has to buy those contracts and that somebody is the market maker. The professional. We cannot all be shorting the breakout (opening sell positions below support) without buyers on the other side of our trades.

 

When you and I, the dumb money, are panicking the professionals buy. Based on the premise that professionals never close at a loss, my trading strategy says I should expect the smart money to go back to that support to sell those contracts they bought from me. Anything below that price level will not be acceptable to them. Traders call it a "retest". But here's a question; a retest of what? What are they retesting? Why is it necessary to retest? I say we're being fooled; the retest is actually the professional selling those bought contracts back to me, the dumb money. 

 

Now that support - 46545 - has not been "retested" since we broke it. In layman's terms, there's a possibility that he hasn't sold his long contracts. He's closed some but he probably still has contracts between 46439 (today's high) - 46545 to sell. Somehow he will get a sucker to buy and that will probably be the same guy who went short yesterday at 45783, and capitulated this morning when it looked like we were going higher. He can also gap the market up tomorrow morning and trigger all those stops above. But someone will be left holding the bag! That's just how the market works, unfortunately.

 

To answer your question, I think he's been probably buying since 46545, because retail traders sold that breakout. On the other hand I cannot say with any certainty that he's sold everything he bought seeing there's support above us at which he is yet to close (what traders call a retest). That makes me nervous. It makes me think that I still have a sizable amount of risk of getting squeezed. We have to go back to that support to eliminate the risk first, then I can consider a short. Until I've seen the retest, that is until the professionals have closed, I cannot pretend to have an edge. 

 

I made a call earlier that we may be going down, but I didn't have the balls to put my money where my mouth is. Why? I just didn't have an edge. Someone will probably make money from his/her short (or even worse, lose money) because they thought "Let me punt a short here," but that's not how I look at it. 

 

I'm not saying that mine's the only system that works, brother, but it's the only one that makes sense to me in terms of risk management. 

 

Happy trading

[bear catcher]

V & A on the same path **** the bulls should take cover now.

[Argento]

If she breaks below 46230-ish uptrend support, she's going back to 46050. (And there's still V's gap close @45650-ish on the to-do list)

 

(That's on the hourly chart - I've given up on trying to post charts, just too many problems)

 

K

Looking as if we are going to give that 45800 level a shot tomorrrow again, my longs waiting there!

 

A

[Vertebrae]

Beyond the T40 futures gap - the equal c-leg is now at 45565 = my most favored buy signal for the return above and test at 46000

[bear catcher]

Gold allso dropping> Target for my shorts 46200 will sell and wait for turn and then go long , ok there i said it so quite possibly it will go exactly the opposite IG is watching me.

[bear catcher]

My shorts taking shape nicely, rand getting stronger so do the math and stop haggling away ifs buts and should haves.Make a decission and trade. Mine purely based on the rand and V s  closing the gap first.

[mx125]

Its called " The Balls Of Elephant Trading System"

 

Obviously volumes play a very important part of this system...and you need to be at it and keep records for at least last 3 to 4 weeks of the  heavy volume areas!!...what beats me how do you know whos buying and whos selling??

Thanks HDB. I just realize I KNOW SO LITTLE. I am still busy mastering the "Balls of the Mouse Trading System"

[HDB]

I'm glad you asked. It's all about odds, actually.

 

There are two levels I'm looking at. Two days ago professionals were buying when everybody was selling. They have to sell those longs eventually. My chart says they've been buying since 46545 and that's where they ultimately have to close. Anything can happen after that. 

 

Yesterday when the market was going up after the dip, they were opening short positions, when the dumb money was buying. Jakes and other smart traders took a long bet because the odds were in their favour and they made tons of money when everyone thought the sky was falling. Those short positions that the professionals opened have to be covered eventually. Remember, professionals never close at a loss. 

 

Now as a retail trader I have no way of telling which way this thing will move; there's not a single trading indicator in the world that can tell me which way this thing will move. Not a moving average, RSI or MFI. Anyone who says they know is lying to you. Not even the professionals know. 

 

We're currently hovering somewhere in between these two levels I mentioned earlier. Lets say I open a short right now. These crooks might decide to cover their shorts first (move south) in which case I'd make tons of money, or they might decide to close their long positions above, in which case I'd lose tons of money. Now that's gambling. The odds are 50/50. Not good at all.

 

So what should I do? WAIT. Wait until at least I think the professionals have covered their shorts and eliminated some of the risk. It's only then that I can say with a reasonable amount of certainty that the odds are in my favour. Right now, we're are sitting at 50/50. You don't have to be a professional gambler to know that those aren't good odds, brother. 

 

Of course this is based on the premise that we are trading a rigged market and professionals never close at a loss. 

 

Feel free to punch holes; I'm willing to learn from other traders. Unfortunately, I'm clueless when it comes to indicators - I only trade naked charts with horizontal lines.

 

Happy trading.

 

 

Its called " The Balls Of Elephant Trading System"

 

Obviously volumes play a very important part of this system...and you need to be at it and keep records for at least last 3 to 4 weeks of the  heavy volume areas!!...what beats me how do you know whos buying and whos selling??