7058 replies to this topic

[orca]

Look at the charts. No problem here. Just went a bit too high too quickly and adjusting back a bit. If the red line support breaks then the BB lower will keep it in check.  CML.png   59.48KB   57 downloads

[M e r l i n]

Doubt current down turn is share specific, I am of the opinion that this is a systematic correction to the whole shebang, market is way over bought from top to bottom and the movers and shakers are taking their profits to sit it out for a bit, having caught all us minows buying at the top.

 

1929 Wall Street crash - I am led to believe the Rockefeller's and the Rothschild's did not own a single share, having chased prices up amongst them selves, sold off everything at the top and then sat on their hands and watched the collapse happily, buying the same stocks back for pennies over the following years and ending up with what they had in the first place and more, plus oodles of cash.

[Zero Hedge]

CML down by +6% the past few days, looking set to go below 100. Any reason?

JPM downgraded the stock last week...the analyst at JPM called CML very well and I think the market took note of his downgrade...so you are seeing some profit taking. Even a share like CML needs to rest every now and then...

[McEdama]

CML down by +6% the past few days, looking set to go below 100. Any reason?

[Zero Hedge]

Re VOD...this is what Rencap had to say earlier this morning...

 

• The event: Voice tariff adjustments. As we expected, again in 2014, Cell C (unlisted) sets the pace in terms of prepaid voice pricing in South Africa, with an announcement that is likely to return MTN and Vodacom in South Africa to the drawing board. To crown it all, the Cell C voice tariff adjustment cuts across both the prepaid and postpaid subscriber base and, on a blended basis (off-net plus on-net; prepaid plus postpaid), it now boasts the lowest voice tariffs in South Africa. Telkom Mobile is currently the only MNO so far that has escaped the limelight, although fair to say we view its current offer (ZAc29/min on-net and ZAc75/min off-net) as competitive and do not expect any adjustments, at least not ahead of Telkom SA’s annual tariff adjustments in August.
• The implications: Change in ratings. We downgrade Vodacom to SELL from Hold, with a revised TP of ZAR124.55 (ZAR132.50 previously), given our concerns around average price per minute (APPM) pressures and a resultant earnings downgrade. We downgrade Telkom SA to HOLD from Buy, with an unchanged TP of ZAR40.00 – our downgrade is purely related to valuation; the share price is trading almost on par with our TP and we think the lack of any short-term catalyst could keep it range-bound ahead of FY14 results.
• MTN vs Vodacom: The relative earnings story. MTN is increasingly offering a premium earnings profile over Vodacom, in our view, with the three-year differential now at 100%. We expect MTN to significantly outperform Vodacom in the long term, given MTN’s higher exposure to African countries and Iran, where subscriber growth, margins and data usage are still in the early stages of adoption, hence providing potential revenue growth avenues over Vodacom. We remain attracted to Vodacom’s high dividend yield; but in the absence of any short-term catalyst, we believe a floor for Vodacom is evident, with our TP implying a 12-month forward yield of 6.9%.

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Profit taking...was just too high up here!

thanks. not complaining, been waiting to get an entry into INL. will be watching this one carefully

[Zero Hedge]

whats up with INL today?

Profit taking...was just too high up here!

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whats up with INL today?

[CPvanWyk]

Thinking of shorting Foschini today. Looks good for a short. Daily also big red daily yesterday. I am going in.

[Manjana]

CFR long worked rather nicely if I might say so myself. Just one more and then out.

Hi Alsi - what's your TP?

[Zero Hedge]

What is the view on FSR went short 3975 hold or sell?

Think you will be fine for now...lots of supply at 4000 level. Just remember to cover the short before the full year results announcement in Sep as the company will most likely declare a special divi. They are sitting on a pile of surplus capital and are generating even more free capital as book growth slows whilst they continue to generate +20% ROE's.

[bear catcher]

What is the view on FSR went short 3975 hold or sell?

[Zero Hedge]

CFR long worked rather nicely if I might say so myself. Just one more and then out.

Barcap still likes it...herewith an extract from their note post the results:

 

Richemont remains a top pick for us in the European luxury space with growth in FY15 underpinned by the end of wholesale destocking in China, the potential for branded jewellery and the margin tailwind from precious metal prices. We also see Net-a-Porter as undervalued by the market. FY14 results demonstrated that the fundamentals were more than intact. Management highlighted that Mainland China is now bottoming out, Jewellery continued to outperform seeing 22% organic growth in H2 and Net-a-Porter growth was "well above group average". Excluding the transactional impact of foreign exchange and one-off expenses, EBIT margin was +100bp y/y in H2 with FY15 set to benefit from the fall in precious metal prices and guidance implying constant currency EBIT margin +c.100bp y/y. April saw a robust 6% organic growth or 8% excluding the volatility in Japan around the VAT increase at the start of the month. We see valuation of 17x calendarised 2015E PE or 13.1x ex cash and Net-a-Porter as attractive and reiterate our Overweight rating.

 

FY14 results. Q4 sales were 5% ahead of our forecast with organic growth +13% (Barclays +8%) and H2 EBIT was 3% ahead with H2 net income 4% ahead. All regions showed double-digit growth. Retail saw a 20% increase and wholesale was also better +8%. Jewellery was the key category that saw 22% organic growth (28.4% sales) in H2 and backs our view that it is the strongest category in the luxury sector.

 

Dividend and Cash flow a key positive. Cash flow was very impressive with working capital firmly under control following the implementation of SAP. Net cash ended at €4.7bn and the group increased the dividend 40% y/y to CHF 1.40.

 

Current trading robust. April was up 6% organic against a tough comp and this was depressed by Japan's reversal following the VAT increase. Ex Japan April was +8%.

[Zero Hedge]

So Tencent down around 2.5% as I type...can't help but wonder whether the party is over?

[crowe]

Anyone looking at long VOD before results next week?

im still long VOD, been so for a few days now

[crowe]

whl is looking weaker. could this be the turning point? will have to see where she opens tomorrow

 

She has made me sweat a bit, been short from 7520..... she better fall!!

[alsi_speculator]

Also, CFR long anyone?

CFR long worked rather nicely if I might say so myself. Just one more and then out.

[Joebanker]

WHL down nicely this arvie!

[davidp13]

Any thoughts on shf?

no reason to short it...

[Investor1]

Any thoughts on shf?