814 replies to this topic

[longterm413]

SA equities I like at the moment: Calgro M3 - been highly profitable, still undervalued and have massive pipeline at the moment; Santova logistics- solid company, hugely undervalued due to much of costs related to internally generated intangible asset not being on balance sheet, taste holdings and famous brands because of dominos pizza and Burger King, massive rollout of these franchises is inevitable.

[flexbender]

Great read if this topic interests you...

 

http://www.thisismon...st-cash-in.html

 

 

[davidp13]

If US producers can get a barrel out for $10 and even less, then we must expect Sasol share price to come down to R200.<br />

speculating here...

im sure the US will be able to handle any $ amount, because big brother will look after the oil/gas producing companies

there might be oversupply and the saudi's might not be cutting back, but personally i think this price drop is forced by bigger brother in order to hurt some countries

the US will survive this!

[Sugafoot]

If US producers can get a barrel out for $10 and even less, then we must expect Sasol share price to come down to R200.<br />

[HendrikB]

Oor die lang termyn behoort jy wel fine the wees Hendrik.

As hy $42-$43 slaan koop ek ook SBAOIL !!

 

I'm currently working in Malaysia and oil now here is cheaper than water.  Tell me... of which is there more... oil or water?

 

Koop olie ou vriend!

[Moonraker]

 

So, instead of reducing supply, they are keeping the price low to force out the US competition who can't produce profitable volumes at the $50 level. A sound tactic by them, especially if they can handle the low current profit margins by digging in their own deep pockets.

 

I don't foresee the oil price going up significantly any time soon. Demand won't increase soon and the Saudi tactics will take very long to have effect on US supply.

I only see them intervening when their own margins go below zero. And that's closer to the $40 mark...!

 

 

 

 

Once costs are sunk, some can produce at $0,99 per barrel.

 

In the U.S., Exxon spent an average of $12.72 to extract a barrel of oil last year, its cheapest operating region aside from Asia and Europe, company figures showed. Some operators have even lower costs: Continental Resources Inc. (CLR) spends about 99 cents to pump each barrel from its 1.8 billion-barrel discovery known as the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province, or SCOOP. Continental, controlled by Oklahoma billionaire wildcatter Harold Hamm, discovered the SCOOP in 2012.

 

Once oil companies sink cash into drilling wells, lining them with steel pipes and concrete, blasting the surrounding rocks into rubble with hydraulic fracturing, and linking them to pipeline systems, they have no incentive to scale back production, said Andrew Cosgrove, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence in Princeton, New Jersey.

 

Exxon Mobil Shows Why U.S. Oil Output Rises as Prices Plunge

 

[flexbender]

I added SBAOIL for a 5 year outlook. Its a ETN that tracks the oil price.

 

 

It's all about timing the bottom... which I don't like trying to do.

But, you might be right...... or maybe not....

 

The drop in price is due to oversupply caused by the double effect of the slow down in Asia and the (blerrie) Americans with their fracking and the resulting large increase in oil volumes produced by the US.

And I believe neither of these causes are going away any time soon.

 

At the end of the day, it's all determined by the Saudi's. Currently they are trying to force the competition out by not opting to rescue the oil price through intervention by OPEC (they basically call the shots there). OPEC has the power to set limits for production ie. control supply. The Saudi's can't really do much about international demand for oil, BUT they can control the supply...

 

So, instead of reducing supply, they are keeping the price low to force out the US competition who can't produce profitable volumes at the $50 level. A sound tactic by them, especially if they can handle the low current profit margins by digging in their own deep pockets.

 

I don't foresee the oil price going up significantly any time soon. Demand won't increase soon and the Saudi tactics will take very long to have effect on US supply.

I only see them intervening when their own margins go below zero. And that's closer to the $40 mark...!

 

 

Oor die lang termyn behoort jy wel fine the wees Hendrik.

As hy $42-$43 slaan koop ek ook SBAOIL !!

[HendrikB]

I wanted a pure oil play. Sasol´s more than that.

[MrDividend]

I added SBAOIL for a 5 year outlook. Its a ETN that tracks the oil price.

 

Interesting. Why this and not the dividend paying/easily traded sasol? More focus?

[HendrikB]

I added SBAOIL for a 5 year outlook. Its a ETN that tracks the oil price.

[M e r l i n]

Fabulous Orca, congratulations on your early retirement, diligence and balls.

 

Having one share in your portfolio that you know well enough after diligent homework might just be worth it. I did and held one share for 4 years and retired early to peaceful Porugal.
I am now diversified into 4 stocks for some safety.

[orca]

Having one share in your portfolio that you know well enough after diligent homework might just be worth it. I did and held one share for 4 years and retired early to peaceful Porugal.
I am now diversified into 4 stocks for some safety.

[M e r l i n]

I had an even bigger chuckle reading your post, imagine if I had stuck to Sasol, Kumba and Biliton, my stock would be worth half of what it is now.

 

 

i had a good chuckle when reading this.

 

taking time to congratulate forum members on their buys.

not even an attempt to disguise the blatant punting of own stock... lol

 

while also advocating putting all your money in only 2 shares, both in the same industry.......  not clever. especially in the long run.

[flexbender]

Good luck Mr Dividend on your excellent choice of NEPI, consider Rockcastle as well next time as they have out performed NEPI but are both Resilient stable mates (I hold 50% /50% of both), I am happy to have a side bet with anyone they shall at least double in 3 years (including div).

 

 

i had a good chuckle when reading this.

 

taking time to congratulate forum members on their buys.

not even an attempt to disguise the blatant punting of own stock... lol

 

while also advocating putting all your money in only 2 shares, both in the same industry.......  not clever. especially in the long run.

[M e r l i n]

Snap, average cost on Rockcastle is 19.03, I topped up several times which has raised my average, initial tranche landed at 17.00 in Middle July 2014, 28%  growth to date excluding div.

 

Good luck Mr Dividend on your excellent choice of NEPI, consider Rockcastle as well next time as they have out performed NEPI but are both Resilient stable mates (I hold 50% /50% of both), I am happy to have a side bet with anyone they shall at least double in 3 years (including div).

[MrDividend]

Been in ROC for a while - avg cost of 1873 and planning on holding for the long term.

 

Also in ITU - I seem to like overseas property...that said, have slightly more in local property.

[M e r l i n]

Good luck Mr Dividend on your excellent choice of NEPI, consider Rockcastle as well next time as they have out performed NEPI but are both Resilient stable mates (I hold 50% /50% of both), I am happy to have a side bet with anyone they shall at least double in 3 years (including div).

 

 

sold 3/4's of my Spur and bought NEPI. Sold 1/5 of my Redefine International and bought Sirius.

Edited by M e r l i n, 09 January 2015 - 01:14 PM.

[MrDividend]

sold 3/4's of my Spur and bought NEPI. Sold 1/5 of my Redefine International and bought Sirius.

[longterm413]

Adding Calgro M3, Santova, Torre, and Conduit Capital to LT portfolio

[gamma]

I'm not averse to any sector however I own real property so feel I've got a foot in property. That said, I would never again buy actual bricks. Listed property much less hassle. I'd be a bit concerned with property right now given that we are likely at the bottom of the rates cycle.

As for financials, I'm not a fan of the banks. Think their current business model is exploitative and ripe for disruption. Margins in south Africa are way too high compared to other markets.

For next year, I'm largely sticking to my winners. Adding more on the dips. Mid caps on the more established side with strong balance sheets and good ex SA growth prospects. Will sprinkle in a few smaller caps here and there.

That's a pretty decent return - especially as you have a good spread, sector as well as companies and sizes.

What shares are you planning to add or add too for 2015?

I see you not a fan of property and beside CML - financial stocks - unless you count DSY.

Edited by gamma, 22 December 2014 - 08:20 PM.