909 replies to this topic

[dominant]

Doesn't seem like the market likes the results though...

[gamma]

I read those postings the other day and yes it was very entertaining. Would warn though that back in 2011 we were only halfway into the bull market...today CML shareholders is facing a bull market that is getting very long in the tooth. Beware of the boy who cried wolf...

 

 

Very true. Highly unlikely we will see same growth of 50-100% growth in HEPS going fwd. But if you look at the picture from a macro perspective. SA economy has sucked for years now yet CML has done well. US is in recovery phase and Europe only beginning recovery phase. Remember Europe is still SA's major trading partner and a pick up there will help.

China is slowing but we still talking of 7%+ growth there. Africa is booming and will continue to grow for another decade or two as its only at the start of its major growth spurt.

 

My point is, from a macro perspective I see far more reason to be optimistic. As long as there is growth on the horizon the market will sustain itself. And this doesn't mean the growth rates we've seen in the past. If the economy grows at 2-5% that will generate more than enough cash in the economy that will need to find a home, which inevitably will be the biggest Asset Managers. 

[Zero Hedge]

BBW the good times were apparently also waning when CML was trading around 30.. go read the old threads and you'll see what I mean.

On such a big base you do not need massive inflows since your opex is low in this kind of business. If Heps grow even at 30% per year (less than half what it is currently) then I'm still more than happy and the share price is still undervalued as far as I'm concerned.

I read those postings the other day and yes it was very entertaining. Would warn though that back in 2011 we were only halfway into the bull market...today CML shareholders is facing a bull market that is getting very long in the tooth. Beware of the boy who cried wolf...

[HDB]

Orca this ponzi scheme is just a proxy for the market...Its the SA version of the PPC ( plunge protection committee )

 

Well done to you but I rather play the Alsi where I can fight the thugs!!

[orca]

As gamma said, brokers and analysts have been shouting "sell - fully valued" since R30. As long as they keep outperforming their indexes, I cannot see it giving negative returns

over a year in the near future unless we have a market crash.

[McEdama]

Sold mine @ 105.95, contemplating jumping in again @ sub R100.00

[gamma]

Thank you Zero Hedge, I really appreciate the info. (Had to phone my broker and although the results are good and still best in the sector, the REAL good times are waning. I'll hold onto mine though, as definitely not selling time yet.)

 

 

BBW the good times were apparently also waning when CML was trading around 30.. go read the old threads and you'll see what I mean.

On such a big base you do not need massive inflows since your opex is low in this kind of business. If Heps grow even at 30% per year (less than half what it is currently) then I'm still more than happy and the share price is still undervalued as far as I'm concerned.

[Zero Hedge]

Thank you Zero Hedge, I really appreciate the info. (Had to phone my broker and although the results are good and still best in the sector, the REAL good times are waning. I'll hold onto mine though, as definitely not selling time yet.)

You're welcome.

[BBW]

CML: H1 result

 

69% dil HEPS growth vs 60-80% guidance & JPMe of 72%. Revenue up 56%, and op expenses up only 46%. 100% payout raito maintained, so divi of 275c puts CML on an annualised trailing yield of 5.3%. Will be included in the MSCI as of 30th May, so should start popping up on more foreigners radars as well. Net flows of R14.7bn is a 6% rate and a disappointment vs our 9% expectation for the full year & the 16% rate over past 3yrs, so AUM growth was therefore supported by strong alpha. We are neutral CML with it trading around our FV now.

Thank you Zero Hedge, I really appreciate the info. (Had to phone my broker and although the results are good and still best in the sector, the REAL good times are waning. I'll hold onto mine though, as definitely not selling time yet.)

[Zero Hedge]

Interesting reading, even though I don't know how to interpret some of it,  but is it better than expected (by the anylists and experts)?

CML: H1 result

 

69% dil HEPS growth vs 60-80% guidance & JPMe of 72%. Revenue up 56%, and op expenses up only 46%. 100% payout raito maintained, so divi of 275c puts CML on an annualised trailing yield of 5.3%. Will be included in the MSCI as of 30th May, so should start popping up on more foreigners radars as well. Net flows of R14.7bn is a 6% rate and a disappointment vs our 9% expectation for the full year & the 16% rate over past 3yrs, so AUM growth was therefore supported by strong alpha. We are neutral CML with it trading around our FV now.

[BBW]

Interesting reading, even though I don't know how to interpret some of it,  but is it better than expected (by the anylists and experts)?

[dominant]

Not sure I am willing to pay 20x  forward for what is most likely peak margins and peak earnings? None of the global asset managers are trading on 20x forward.

 

Coronation is quite unique in its performance compared to other asset managers, and I doubt their earnings have peaked given their history.

 

Personally I won't be buying more at this stage, but that's only owing to the fact that CML has made my portfolio quite unbalanced because of its growth over the last 5 years.

[Zero Hedge]

Great results (again)!

 

Fwd PE on these results is ~17.64

At a PE of 20, the share should be trading at R132.90 

Not sure I am willing to pay 20x  forward for what is most likely peak margins and peak earnings? None of the global asset managers are trading on 20x forward.

[dominant]

Great results (again)!

 

Fwd PE on these results is ~17.64

At a PE of 20, the share should be trading at ~R132.90 

Edited by dominant, 20 May 2014 - 07:44 AM.

[Zero Hedge]

Divi up 70% over last year.

 

As expected the outlook is downplayed.

I don't really follow CML as I have missed the boat on this one but the results and divi looks VERY good. Will be interesting to see what market does with the stock going forward.

[gamma]

Divi up 70% over last year.

 

As expected the outlook is downplayed.

[BBW]

Sometone put a sell through for 500,000 shares. Hit my stop at 99.99. Ridiculous :/

Ouch! That's bad! That's why I say never use SL's with good shares when long; only in your head or way down (only for self preservation). 

The pro's will probably slag me now, but been there done that; same has happened to me before...

[dominant]

Someone put a sell through for 500,000 shares. Hit my stop at 99.99. Ridiculous :/

[gamma]

For the CML bulls...take note of the following from JPM... and I must stress this analyst was one of the few on sell side that called this stock right up to now...

 

"CML- we downgrade to N from OW - it has enjoyed an extraordinarily strong run, generating 101% total return over each of the past two years. While there is upside to our valuation should net inflows continue at recent levels into FY15, CML has now reached our fair value and we see downside risk to cons FY15 earnings expectations from a normalisation in performance fees. We therefore downgrade our recommendation to Neutral (PT increased to R110 from 102)"

 

 

Thanks Zero. You know the funny thing is that even Coronation has had a neutral outlook on themselves for well over a year! LOL I'm never amazed by analysts anymore. It is also worth pointing out that this entire industry missed the 2008 crash. They sound smart but are as clueles as a drunk in the street when it comes to timing the market.

 

So my point is....no one really knows when this bull market will turn. It could well ride up another 2 years and turn when CML is sitting at 300 or it could turn next week..

I guess its that uncertainty that makes this game fun.

 

Still, no one ever cried for taking profit off the table.

 

I havent bought CML in 3 years yet the weighting in my porfolio is now greater than I ever wished it to be. Been trying to rebalance for 2 years by buying other stocks but that's not really helped much. So if/when CML turns I'm badly exposed. Been building short hedges on every uptick to try and mitigate but it still a challenge..

[Zero Hedge]

For the CML bulls...take note of the following from JPM... and I must stress this analyst was one of the few on sell side that called this stock right up to now...

 

"CML- we downgrade to N from OW - it has enjoyed an extraordinarily strong run, generating 101% total return over each of the past two years. While there is upside to our valuation should net inflows continue at recent levels into FY15, CML has now reached our fair value and we see downside risk to cons FY15 earnings expectations from a normalisation in performance fees. We therefore downgrade our recommendation to Neutral (PT increased to R110 from 102)"