909 replies to this topic

[HDB]

HDB always appears on this thread when the share takes a little hit! 

 

Short term fluctuations should be irrelevant if you are a long term investor yet everyone jumps up and down as soon as share price bumps or drops a few % points in a day. Humans and goldfish have a lot in common!

Alsi up today for sure...Watch it go above R100.00 again!! 

[gamma]

I remember you saying that when the price was around R60.

 

HDB always appears on this thread when the share takes a little hit! 

 

Short term fluctuations should be irrelevant if you are a long term investor yet everyone jumps up and down as soon as share price bumps or drops a few % points in a day. Humans and goldfish have a lot in common!

[orca]

Looks very overpriced...

http://www.relativev....co.za/cml.html

Umm. That is so old.

[brendonfiddes]

Looks very overpriced...

http://www.relativev....co.za/cml.html

[HDB]

Your underlying assumption is that the retailers have been inflated by the asset managers, and not inflated due to phenomenal results - Even if CML halves, the return already outweighs and the dividend then will still be 5-6% - this is a divi stock, capital return has just been a by-product. Yes, there will be a burst, and the value machine will start pumping again and up we will go and the tears will stop. In that case every long term investor will be waiting for the next bull.

No , I just used retailers as an example. Generally the most of market is overpriced and with the money flowing into CML it has to go somewhere!! So its back into stockmarket, prices keep going up, it becomes more expensive and the whole circle continues. However their will have to be a day of  reckoning.

 

I better go before Gamma comes and give me stick!!  

[orca]

Dont know what all the hype is about...

As i said its a proxy for the Alsi and market..

If you think the ALSI will reach 50000 then go overweight.

If you think the Alsi will correct to God knows what...someone said 17000 but in likelihood at least 10% then go underweight!

 

Remember in the 2007/2008 correction this one fell to under 10 bucks!!

 

I remember you saying that when the price was around R60.

[@sirgrantfleming]

Grant I laugh as I write this and im sure you will too :

 

Any pyramid scheme does this....

 

You know what happens when any scheme reaches saturation point and bursts right????

 

The same divi receivers start crying....

Your underlying assumption is that the retailers have been inflated by the asset managers, and not inflated due to phenomenal results - Even if CML halves, the return already outweighs and the dividend then will still be 5-6% - this is a divi stock, capital return has just been a by-product. Yes, there will be a burst, and the value machine will start pumping again and up we will go and the tears will stop. In that case every long term investor will be waiting for the next bull.

[HDB]

Hey HDB - You can say all this, but the dividend is also a massive driver of this share - it has been unbelieveable in terms of real investor returns.

 

Grant I laugh as I write this and im sure you will too :

 

Any pyramid scheme does this....

 

You know what happens when any scheme reaches saturation point and bursts right????

 

The same divi receivers start crying....

[Zero Hedge]

Comments from JPM re CML...hope this is useful:

 

Coronation: Worth a relook?

• On their conf call, CML said flows into GEMS funds (Ranked 2 out of peer group of 64 globally) are improving after a tough 6m for all GEM funds. Its GEM Fund AUM grew to R38.5bn from R31.0bn. Based on the unit price movements in CML’s GEM funds, we calculate net inflows were R5bn into GEM funds, which is solid given GEM fund redemptions of  $11bn YTD globally.
• While they “don’t anticipate opening SA institutional funds to new clients soon” but that growth from GEM and non-SA funds should be strong in future, CML explained that the lower tax rate is sustainable and should move down further as the non-SA businesses grow.
• The stock was down 6.7% yday and it has now come off >10% since our downgrade to Neutral. Net flows at 6% were the disappointing aspect of the result. Retail net flows continued to be very strong, but International inflows slowed from R17bn in 2H13 to R6bn. We believe International inflows were limited by clients’ capacity constraints (25% non-SA exposure limits) and by the weak GEM fund environment. Given the recovery in the Rand, given repatriation of foreign funds and given the strong SA market we expect SA clients will now again have capacity to invest in the International funds. The improved GEM fund demand worldwide should also support a recovery in net flows somewhat in 2H14.
• Given that there is nothing in the results that will change our long-term expectations except a lower tax rate, I think it’s worth having another look at, with c20% total return potential to our R110/sh PT. The stock now has an FY15e DY of 6.1% (5.6% if we normalise for elevated performance fees), and while it still trades at a premium PE to global peers, this is justified by superior operating margins and RoNAV in our view.

[@sirgrantfleming]

Devonwest , I disagree with you about a great company. Again I say its a Ponzi/pyramid scheme..

 

If  I gave u a billion rand and you started buying up all the retailers left right and centre...retailers will rise becos of ur demand. I give you another billion and you continue buying up retailers again...and then another bil and u do that again....

You may think you great because you shot the retail index up by 50% but I will say you a fool!! Go now and try to sell the 2 billion retail shares in the market and see what happens!!

 

D day will arrive when CML who are all paper profits will have to turn it into real actual  profits!!

 

This is just an example im giving. You may see value in the retail stocks but we all know the state of the economy!!

 

Buy the the share price went up from R10 in 2008 to R108 iin 2014 so I must be wrong !!!

 

Maybe , maybe not!!!....Im just saying be careful and do your own homework and not listen to the noise here!!

 

What goes from R10 to R100 does not mean it will go to R200!!

Hey HDB - You can say all this, but the dividend is also a massive driver of this share - it has been unbelieveable in terms of real investor returns.

[grumpy old man]

I agree totally with Mr Dividend. I expect growth will slow but this is a share that has performed remarkably over the past few years and we cannot expect that type of performance to continue forever but it does pay excellent dividends.

I am happy to continue this amazing ride.

[MrDividend]

Bought another chunk at R94.00. Im going all in boys.

 

As did I. More than happy with the increase in dividend and their P/E outlook to me does not make it all that expensive - aware that they probably will not grow at the same crazy rates, but confident they will still grow at decent rate. CML is now around 15% of my portfolio - so will not be adding anymore for quite some time

[HendrikB]

Bought another chunk at R94.00. Im going all in boys.

[HDB]

This is still a fundamentally great company and with a PE of 18, I would still consider it a value share with room to grow. Today was merely an over sell hype just like NPN was a couple months ago. Naspers has now grown 20% in the last 3 weeks. All this is doing is opening up opportunity to buy. I only see this downward movement becoming a long term issue when this impending correction happens. Until then, I'm sure there is still more to be made. Emotion seems to drive shares down as quickly as they drive them up. Look at POY, I'm still hurting. 

Devonwest , I disagree with you about a great company. Again I say its a Ponzi/pyramid scheme..

 

If  I gave u a billion rand and you started buying up all the retailers left right and centre...retailers will rise becos of ur demand. I give you another billion and you continue buying up retailers again...and then another bil and u do that again....

You may think you great because you shot the retail index up by 50% but I will say you a fool!! Go now and try to sell the 2 billion retail shares in the market and see what happens!!

 

D day will arrive when CML who are all paper profits will have to turn it into real actual  profits!!

 

This is just an example im giving. You may see value in the retail stocks but we all know the state of the economy!!

 

Buy the the share price went up from R10 in 2008 to R108 iin 2014 so I must be wrong !!!

 

Maybe , maybe not!!!....Im just saying be careful and do your own homework and not listen to the noise here!!

 

What goes from R10 to R100 does not mean it will go to R200!!

Edited by HDB, 21 May 2014 - 09:37 AM.

[dominant]

At R92 it has a DY of ~5.4% and a Fwd PE of ~13.96

 

Surely a buy on fundamentals.

Edited by dominant, 21 May 2014 - 09:27 AM.

[@sirgrantfleming]

Bleeding again, down to R92.00, let's wait and see...

om nom nom

[McEdama]

Bleeding again, down to R92.00, let's wait and see...

[HDB]

Dont know what all the hype is about...

As i said its a proxy for the Alsi and market..

If you think the ALSI will reach 50000 then go overweight.

If you think the Alsi will correct to God knows what...someone said 17000 but in likelihood at least 10% then go underweight!

 

Remember in the 2007/2008 correction this one fell to under 10 bucks!!

[Devonvest]

This is still a fundamentally great company and with a PE of 18, I would still consider it a value share with room to grow. Today was merely an over sell hype just like NPN was a couple months ago. Naspers has now grown 20% in the last 3 weeks. All this is doing is opening up opportunity to buy. I only see this downward movement becoming a long term issue when this impending correction happens. Until then, I'm sure there is still more to be made. Emotion seems to drive shares down as quickly as they drive them up. Look at POY, I'm still hurting. 

[Zero Hedge]

None the less the rest of week should be interesting...the 96 level is crucial.