First off you aware I've held this seems like forever my av deep in the green & I have lots so I is bias.
This is my honest assessment ATM...
What the Chairman & his buddies at Simeka Capital want they get....No matter who is CEO...Lead independent director is also in their pocket...!
Can't blame them when nobody would back them... they had to back themselves & go cap in hand to IDC for funding to buy Keaton. That paid off handsomely & still is...! So they wealthy men now with confidence...healthy combination...
Same methodology going on here...Another deal & no funding forthcoming & this is a R1.8bil deal roughly twice their market cap.
Ata Resources... only Google & not much there...Black owned private equity crowd....So who's driving the bus...?
While Ata do have mining assets & holdings Wescoal have on the ground operational footprint even more so post Keaton.
Universal on the other hand also very decent outfit & well ran... Wescoal know this as Simeka 30% holding in their most profitable mine.
Most of Wescoal/Universal & Ata operations in Mpumalanga so savings across all 3 will be huge once ironed out.
This is a consolidation to secure supply feed for Mudupi & Kusile me thinks... they have assets near & a full suite of processing plants & a logistics arm also.
So it all up in the air ATM as to who stays & who goes....But the deal WILL go through just a numbers & most importantly also an exit game now. I say exit because Ata not long term mining guys me thinks so Wescoal as stated will want to be the entity left standing in couple years time.
What will they look like in 3yrs my guess 18-25mil tons per year steady ROM mostly sold to Eskom.
As posted below Ichor coal also will get brought into the fold eventually with all the small marginal mines sold off as they have done with the Keaton/Wescoal ones.
So for a 3yr outlook yeah I'd say if you have spare go for it...Only downside is you maybe selling @c200-210 as this ticker can't get past this hurdle but that's still what 20% return ex divi's.
You don't need to do your own research as it's all on this thread plus some emotional rants just ignore those.