269 replies to this topic

[soutie]

Elandspruit.... Run of Mine +/-3mil tons per yr...Life of Mine +\-7-8yr...

Vanggatfontein...Run of Mine +/-2.5mil tons per yr.... Life of mine +/-8yrs.

Khanyisa complex up & running now about 0.5-0.8mil tons per year. Life of mine +\-4yrs This will be ramped up by now to +/-1mil tons per yr

Moabsvelden small capex bit like Elandspruit will add another +/-2mil tons per yr...I'm sure once the Universal deal is wrapped up this will get go-ahead.

Their target is 8mil tons per yr. 

They produced 6.8mil tons FY2018.

What gets sometimes lost in the whole BEE noise is Eskom only takes 50% of their product. They are the biggest domestic coal trader by faaaaaar.

[Polly]

Hi S..

 

 

had a deeper look and juts feel most of their existing mines have a very short lifespan...+-3 years

 

 

is this correct

[soutie]

My issue is with the concept of promoting the buy whilst intending to sell or on behalf of client sellers.

After all what should a broker do when the client gives a mountain of rubbish and you trying to live from the commission.

Timing for the scheme of dumping into a drummed up buying market can be difficult. You know the drill. Tell us more. 

Hell, I got this empathy issue makes me feel for all the the players. Even the con artists.

Morning Snippit.

First off I've always promoted this share...

I've no intention of selling any of my holdings as I now receive a chunk of cash via the annual divi.

I don't sell on behalf of anybody else as I'm just like you a retail investor/trader.

WSL is a growth company so during the life span of the company events will happen that I bring to the attention of this forum as you bring your charts & other stuff.

I also feel for the players in the game but I'm more of a collective kinda guy.

Tell us more...? Well maybe I've been around the block more times than you..? So my need to educate or caution or (insert as you see fit) is more diluted than yours.

I would dearly love to here your take on WSL as I know I'm looking through rose tinted glasses on this one.

Again not too cryptic though.

Cheers.  

[Snippit]

Hi Snippet.

Thanks for the chart.

I don't understand Elliot wave theory. I will agree on your point of entering wild west territory though.

I've been here before with WSL so another once round the block isn't a biggie for me.

As for pumping this share Yip I do & have done for years.

In my commentary over the yrs I've made it no secret even today "I is very bias"

Just watch the volume indicator & you'll see it's only ever retail investors exiting the big holders are stuck fast & they know it...!

This is a value trap & that's something I've also communicated very clearly over the yrs as well. 

I would like you to view this post in an everyday kind of way & if you reply stay same...as if you get too cryptic you'll lose me.

Cheers. 

 

My issue is with the concept of promoting the buy whilst intending to sell or on behalf of client sellers.

After all what should a broker do when the client gives a mountain of rubbish and you trying to live from the commission.

Timing for the scheme of dumping into a drummed up buying market can be difficult. You know the drill. Tell us more. 

Hell, I got this empathy issue makes me feel for all the the players. Even the con artists.

[soutie]

Hi Snippet.

Thanks for the chart.

I don't understand Elliot wave theory. I will agree on your point of entering wild west territory though.

I've been here before with WSL so another once round the block isn't a biggie for me.

As for pumping this share Yip I do & have done for years.

In my commentary over the yrs I've made it no secret even today "I is very bias"

Just watch the volume indicator & you'll see it's only ever retail investors exiting the big holders are stuck fast & they know it...!

This is a value trap & that's something I've also communicated very clearly over the yrs as well. 

I would like you to view this post in an everyday kind of way & if you reply stay same...as if you get too cryptic you'll lose me.

Cheers. 

[Snippit]

Warning: Consider the probability of the chart indicators:

Wescoal chart (weekly data) is in the wild west sector. Evidence of serious pump and dump activity abounds. Presently in corrective wave Primary [2] with heavy resistance at ( B ), which has 3 distinct waves, points to double-top and equal legs targets at the same gap closing location circa 105.

 

https://jsecharts.bl...y-of-chart.html

 

[soutie]

Happy to share bud..

Not feeling the love on MZC/CoA....Have a Wesizwe vibe going there...Dunno why but avoiding it..D. Brown also that guy...   had a total meltdown couple years back & cost me on an IMP cfd trade..

[Polly]

Thanks S....brilliant commentary..appreciated..

 

Seeing im already in ex coal of africa gona pass this unless i get R1.50 

[Midas1]

Thanks soutie..you seem have extensive knowledge in this field..ill watch with interest but still sticking top 40 at moment other than mcz and few ellies,,which im leaving for the foreseeable.

[soutie]

P.S.

I'm also bullish on Harmony & have been buying on all dips in the R22-23 region.

That's another story I'll put on the respective thread some day soon...

Cheers.

[soutie]

Morning Polly.

First off you aware I've held this seems like forever my av deep in the green & I have lots so I is bias.

This is my honest assessment ATM...

What the Chairman & his buddies at Simeka Capital want they get....No matter who is CEO...Lead independent director is also in their pocket...!

Can't blame them when nobody would back them... they had to back themselves & go cap in hand to IDC for funding to buy Keaton. That paid off handsomely & still is...! So they wealthy men now with confidence...healthy combination...

Same methodology going on here...Another deal & no funding forthcoming & this is a R1.8bil deal roughly twice their market cap.

Ata Resources... only Google & not much there...Black owned private equity crowd....So who's driving the bus...?

While Ata do have mining assets & holdings Wescoal have on the ground operational footprint even more so post Keaton.

Universal on the other hand also very decent outfit & well ran... Wescoal know this as Simeka 30% holding in their most profitable mine.

Most of Wescoal/Universal & Ata operations in Mpumalanga so savings across all 3 will be huge once ironed out.

This is a consolidation to secure supply feed for Mudupi & Kusile me thinks... they have assets near & a full suite of processing plants & a logistics arm also.

So it all up in the air ATM as to who stays & who goes....But the deal WILL go through just a numbers & most importantly also an exit game now. I say exit because Ata not long term mining guys me thinks so Wescoal as stated will want to be the entity left standing in couple years time.

What will they look like in 3yrs my guess 18-25mil tons per year steady ROM mostly sold to Eskom.  

As posted below Ichor coal also will get brought into the fold eventually with all the small marginal mines sold off as they have done with the Keaton/Wescoal ones.

So for a 3yr outlook yeah I'd say if you have spare go for it...Only downside is you maybe selling @c200-210 as this ticker can't get past this hurdle but that's still what 20% return ex divi's.

You don't need to do your own research as it's all on this thread plus some emotional rants just ignore those.

Cheers.

Soutie

[Polly]

S you a fundi on this share...at R1.70 you think  good entry for long term?

 

always wanted to get back in here....but seems capped at R2.00/ 2.50 for yonks....

[soutie]

This a cut & paste jobbie from Miningmx.com

 

We continue to engage actively with Ata Resources in relation to the announced NBO and look forward to updating shareholders as appropriate,” he added.

The company said in December that the outcome of the unsolicited Ata Resources bid was expected by the middle of this month after it had retained advisors to assess the fairness of a 35 Australian cents per share offer lodged in September.

Universal Coal also said it had agreed with Ata Resources not to solicit a rival bid so as to remove the prospect of introducing competitive tension and push up the offer price. In addition, Universal Coal agreed to make known any third party offer that could materialise for the firm in the interim. This suggests that barring any questions regarding the offer, Universal Coal intends to support it.

At 35 cents/share, equal to about 24.98 US cents per share, the offer value the company at A$170m or $121m which is on a par with Universal’s current valuation.

Universal Coal said that since the receipt of a binding bid commitment, which was in late October, a committee of Universal Coal directors had actively engaged with Ata Resources. As a result, the committee had retained Ernst and Young Advisory Services to assess the bid by means of an independent export report (IER).

FYI  after digging around a little it turns out that Universal's largest BEE holding is Ichor coal who are listed on some semi-regulated  German bourse & don't seem to trade much.

Their CEO is non other than Nonkululeko Nyembezi ex Ceo Mittal steel & plus the CEO of Universal will obviously be throwing his hat in for the job. So seems our Waheed after some very decent work last year or 2 doesn't make the cut...  

Again like the last boardroom tussle good decision...? Communicated very badly all-round. Result own goal again...  

Let's hope the PR machine kicks in very soon or this "Value Trap" gonna slide due to no news flow.

Cheers. 

[soutie]

http://www.sharenet....0&seq=22&scode=

 

WTF....

Maybe he's not gonna be CEO of the larger WSL post Universal merger/buyout...Resigns in protest...My guess...

Anyone else....?

[soutie]

FYI...Here's a link to an update of Universal's status ATM....Looks pretty good all round I'd say...

Not much mentioned on the consortium buyout & nothing that we don't already know except they expecting a firm offer to purchase next month.

 

https://www.asx.com....09kbhcyqhqg.pdf

 

Oh & do your own research.....

[soutie]

Yip solid results & all on track...potential downside is rainfall over the next couple months...upside is the recent announcement of the Universal buyout my guess it will go ahead as Simeka are 30% equity partners in Universal's Kangala & have been for quite some time, so previous attempts at takeover of Universal were always going to be scuppered by Simeka.

As mentioned trading arm is pumping albeit at slightly reduced margins but huge increases in volume & transport is a volume business...due to Eskom planning that won't abate until about March next year so another 6mths of the same.

Moabsvelden offers nice opportunity to increase production with very low risk or capex.

I would like to see WSL transition to more owner mining operational model & looks as though they moving in that direction.

Only about 1/2 the R20m buy back concluded to date.

Don't know when this share will re-rate & take off....& yeah been saying that for some yrs now.....   

[soutie]

WESCOAL HOLDINGS LIMITED Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa (Registration number 2005/006913/06) Share code: WSL ISIN: ZAE000069639 (“Wescoal” or the “Company”)

 

VOLUNTARY ANNOUNCEMENT REGARDING THE PROPOSED REPURCHASE OF SHARES

 

Wescoal shareholders are advised that the board of directors of Wescoal (the “Board”) has resolved to repurchase a maximum of R20 million worth of its own shares in terms of the general approval granted by shareholders of the Company at the annual general meeting held on 14 November 2017 (the "Share Repurchase").

 

Some methodical buying going on here...making sure they hoover up 97% of all sellers as the price ticks up. Even if it's all WSL purchases they not half way through R20m yet.

Next set of results will be good also due to Mpumalanga coal shortages plus transport thereof.

Won't shoot the lights out but steady & very cash generative....possible interim divi.....?

Edited by soutie, 28 September 2018 - 09:52 AM.

[soutie]

Sorry Bull my copy paste skills bit off this morning

[soutie]

Senior Member PipPipPipPipPip 980 posts LocationNorthcliff Posted Yesterday, 11:38 AM Wescoal: An exception in a struggling sector Steely nerved punters might do well to have a closer look at Wescoal — even though ‘smaller’ coal mining operations have fared fairly dismally on the JSE 07 SEPTEMBER 2018 - 13:55 MARC HASENFUSS SA resource ventures are hardly coveted by investors these days — probably for good reason. But let’s assume there are long-term punters who can look past the regulatory minefield, political curve balls, labour hitches and a tricky operating environment. Such steely nerved punters might do well to have a closer look at Wescoal — even though "smaller" coal mining operations have fared fairly dismally on the JSE. There’s quite a lot in Wescoal’s annual report that a rational market should find encouraging. The acquisition-bolstered revenue line looks robust, and operating margins (there are sizeable coal merchant functions) are close to 10%. There are strong cash flows: R359m from operating activities and a net R213m (equal to 82c or 48c a share respectively.) This underpins Wescoal’s determined dividend policy. The company also has a solid track record of delivering on its promises. In all, there is little to support the market rating on Wescoal — a dismissive earnings multiple usually reserved for counters where growth prospects are about to hit the wall. In this regard, there is much comfort to be taken from the annual report’s overview of operations. Most importantly, the recent acquisition of Keaton Energy for R525m has boosted Wescoal’s resources to more than 300Mt through four operating mines and processing plants, as well as ongoing participation in the coal supply chain infrastructure. Keaton brings aboard the Vanggatfontein mine — roughly the same size as Wescoal’s flagship Elandspruit mine. The synergies realised from the deal are tangible, with the annual report disclosing savings of more than R40m a year. The annual report gives a commitment to further improve operational cost savings and efficiencies by eliminating duplication in contract services and assessing which services to in-and out-source. Middelburg-based Elandspruit — which can produce up to 3Mt run-of-mine coal a year and has a life of about seven years — should underpin profitability in the medium term. The mine currently produces 220,000t a month from the opencast area and about 30,000t a month from the underground operation. In his annual review, CEO Waheed Sulaiman says Wescoal wants to optimise existing businesses and assets, and "pay particular attention to the group’s capital structure with a view to increasing value to shareholders". Perhaps more intriguingly, he says Wescoal will continue to look for external growth opportunities and participate in the consolidation of the coal sector. Though there is a clear focus on maximising value from existing assets, he believes more acquisition opportunities exist for coal and related strategic infrastructure assets. In this regard, IM believes a deal between Wescoal and the profitable coal mining operations of Hosken Consolidated Investments could create an empowered mining company with scale and the ability to execute more acquisitions. Though acquisitions or mergers would likely bring Wescoal to the attention of more investors, the company is not neglecting its current structure. In August it proposed the sale of its opencast Leeuw Braakfontein Colliery in KwaZulu-Natal for R103m. The proceeds will be mobilised to cull short-term borrowings and fund strategic growth options. The proposed deal follows hard on the heels of the sale of its Intibane collieries in Mpumalanga for R57m. The overall sense at Wescoal is that executives are working hard at sweating existing assets and looking for deals to secure operational sustainability. Junior mining ventures come with extra risk and high failure rates — but gut feel is that Wescoal could be a notable exception. At current levels any spare cash might be well spent on a few Wescoal shares. Edited by Bullhunter, Yesterday, 11:39 AM. 0 Opportunities are made up easier than losses.

[Bullhunter]

https://www.sharenet...0&seq=23&scode=

 

If this is not the catalyst to get above R2 & stay above I don't know what will....?

By every measure I use, this share is underpriced. Must be the sector it's in that is keeping it down. As a result, this is one of the few occasions where I agree with a share buy back.