15225 replies to this topic

[DayTraderDad]

https://www.moneyweb...-steinhoff-agm/ this report says right at the end that Hamilton represents 25% of voting rights.

 

Haha thats ANNA again speculatin and bringing out the negative as usual: see the red highlighted.

 

"It will be able to do this if, as is speculated, Hamilton represents at least 25% of Steinhoff shareholders. A Section 155 scheme needs at least 75% shareholder support."

See from the AGM results:

==========

Agenda Item 4.2:

 Proposal to cast an

 advisory vote in respect of

 the remuneration report

 for the financial year

                                    42,204,622          522,760,208        564,964,830          13.39%      2,619,278

 ended 30 September 2020

                                    (7.47%)             (92.53%)

======

So if Hamilton had 25% why then only bring 13.39 % of the share to the meeting in issue what happened to the other 11.61% ( 25-13.39).

I am quite sure they have only maximum 13% anyway thats my take.

[Tiekkie]

Hi woolhoff I cannot predict the future with 100% certainty (if I had that ability would have had all the money in world) but what you did is exactly what I did which was the idea I had of shorting my own shares.

All I can tell you is what I am doing myself and what I see the future.

Firstly the Hamilton´s only have about 500k shares support which equates to 13% so they have no influence on the voting because required to pass the process is 75%. You can see from the AGM it was clear for me the ones going against approving the financials was them so the Hamilton issue is just noise for me and very sure they going to loose in court. In fact will not surprise me at all if at the last minute they give in. Watch this very close.

Anyway let´s assume SNH sells everything ends up with Eur 1500 corporate debt and keeps only 60% of PEPCO.

With the PEPCO EBITDA a debt of Eur 1500 is reasonable and they could get bonds at cheat interest rates.

The expected value of PEPCO IPO is Eur 6 bil which SNH holding of 60% = Eur 3600 mil and shares in issue are about 4200 mil that gives a NAV per share of Eur 0.85 or R14.82 @ RoE R17.3 to 1 Euro.

So if the predicted PEPCO EBITDA of Eur 1 bil in 5 years materializes then in 5 years time PEPCO should be valued at Eur 14 Bil (because its a fast growing business) and the 60% ownership would be with Eur 8.4 bil and if they sold to 50% would pay off all debt and still have a NAV of Eur 6.9 bil and at 4200 mil shares a NAV per share of Eur 1.64 or R28.42.

The above tells me I mist sit on my hands keep on selling high and buy low and just simply enjoy the ride.


Again this is just my thoughts and not any advise would be interesting to see other people thoughts.

https://www.moneyweb...-steinhoff-agm/ this report says right at the end that Hamilton represents 25% of voting rights.

[DayTraderDad]

@ DTD- In 2016 I "invested" R791k and bought about 80 000 SNH shares in total.Average price then around R10.Over the past 5 years I watched my portfolio value go down to R120k when the share price touched around 80cents.At that stage I kinda wrote the share off and accepted my fate. Through sheer perseverance which I admit hasnt been easy and active trading (and by this I mean selling my shares on an up and rebuying at a lower price to increase shareholding ive managed to decrease my breakeven point from R10 to R4.50. My present investment value as at fridays close is now at R390k, halfway to my initial investment. Will appreciate any thoughts or suggestions for me on my journey ahead??

 

Hi woolhoff I cannot predict the future with 100% certainty (if I had that ability would have had all the money in world) but what you did is exactly what I did which was the idea I had of shorting my own shares.

 

All I can tell you is what I am doing myself and what I see the future.

 

Firstly the Hamilton´s only have about 500k shares support which equates to 13% so they have no influence on the voting because required to pass the process is 75%. You can see from the AGM it was clear for me the ones going against approving the financials was them so the Hamilton issue is just noise for me and very sure they going to loose in court. In fact will not surprise me at all if at the last minute they give in. Watch this very close.

 

Anyway let´s assume SNH sells everything ends up with Eur 1500  corporate debt and keeps only 60% of PEPCO.

 

With the PEPCO EBITDA a debt of Eur 1500 is reasonable  and they could get bonds at cheat interest rates.

 

The expected value of PEPCO IPO is Eur 6 bil which SNH holding of 60% = Eur 3600 mil and shares in issue are about 4200 mil that gives a NAV per share of Eur 0.85 or R14.82  @ RoE R17.3 to 1 Euro.

 

So if the predicted PEPCO EBITDA of Eur 1 bil in 5 years materializes then in 5 years time PEPCO should be valued at Eur 14 Bil (because its a fast growing business) and the 60% ownership would be with Eur 8.4 bil and if they sold to 50% would pay off all debt and still have a NAV of Eur 6.9 bil and at 4200 mil shares a NAV per share of Eur 1.64 or R28.42.

 

The above tells me I mist sit on my hands keep on selling high and buy low and just simply enjoy the ride.

 

 

Again this is just my thoughts and not any advise would be interesting to see other people thoughts.

[woolhoff]

Hi Olymphia SNH management have three leg approach to recovery and the second is to settle the litigation and claims then comes the final step the financial restructuring.

I believe that Hamilton is looking for a fight in court or trying to muscles SNH management to pay more because remember they take a percentage of the settlement. My take is SNH management will see them in court and will not be muscled because in my opinion Hamilton has a weak case. I still believe a shareholder that buys shares in the open market buy it at his/her own risk and can loose all the money. So how can they believe there is a money back guarantee? Further SNH the company was also ripped off by our friend Jooster and not just shareholders.

Unless the investments houses ( the likes of Allen Grey, Coronation and PIC and a few others) come to their senses and forget about supporting Hamilton there will be a delay in settling therefore is difficult to have a time line but I expect Hamilton will loose the court case and then the investment houses will be exposed and have to rush and buy shares to get back in because their holding will be very badly diluted with a RI and they need to average down.

Watch this in the near future there are going to be lots of nervous investment houses!!! My take share will rise steadily from here because of the need to average down.

Remember SNH can issue 16 bil shares and at present they only have 4.2 bil in issue so a possible dilution of 1 to 4 and the likes of Allen Grey and Coronation would never recover they money. Interesting times ahead.

I believe that's why Old Mutual and PIC already have been buying up shares in the last few months.

For me the longer this takes the better because then PEPCO and Mattress Firm will be with much more then. If you recall there is talk that PEPCO EBITDA could be Eur 1 Bil that would make PEPCO value at over Eur 10 bil at a modest Multiple.

Saying all above my take is all will be done by 2023 that´s why management wanted to extend the CVA settlement date.

Please remember these are my own thoughts and not to give advise. All I can say all my trucks bakkies are full of SNH shares!!!

Haha love green beer!!!

@ DTD- In 2016 I "invested" R791k and bought about 80 000 SNH shares in total.Average price then around R10.Over the past 5 years I watched my portfolio value go down to R120k when the share price touched around 80cents.At that stage I kinda wrote the share off and accepted my fate. Through sheer perseverance which I admit hasnt been easy and active trading (and by this I mean selling my shares on an up and rebuying at a lower price to increase shareholding ive managed to decrease my breakeven point from R10 to R4.50. My present investment value as at fridays close is now at R390k, halfway to my initial investment. Will appreciate any thoughts or suggestions for me on my journey ahead??

Edited by woolhoff, 03 May 2021 - 12:11 AM.

[woolhoff]

Good evening Dtd

Thanks for sharing your knowledge on this share, interesting times ahead, hopefully we see 👀 a good week ahead, 5 May is a key date......

Whats happening on 5 MAY???

[Olymphia]

Good evening Dtd

Thanks for sharing your knowledge on this share, interesting times ahead, hopefully we see 👀 a good week ahead, 5 May is a key date......

[Olymphia]

Good evening Dtd

Thanks for sharing your knowledge on this share, interesting times ahead, hopefully we see 👀 a good week ahead, 5 May is a key date......

[DayTraderDad]

South African shareholding has become irrelevant!!!

 

See insert below from page 11 on the AGM presentation.

 

Shareholder spread

 

November 2017

• 69% South African investors; 6% Germany; 6% UK

• 73% traded through the JSE; 27% through the FSE

• Large SA-based fund managers held 31%

• Voting Pool 34%

 

January 2021

• 20% South African investors

• 75% trade through the FSE; 25% through the JSE

• Large SA-based fund managers held 10%

• No voting pool

[DayTraderDad]

Good afternoon Dtd

Thanks for your detailed responses. to my question.

What is the time line for this to be implemented?

Thanking you in advance

Hi Olymphia SNH management have three leg approach to recovery and the second is to settle the litigation and claims then comes the final step the financial restructuring.

 

I believe that Hamilton is looking for a fight in court or trying to muscles SNH management to pay more because remember they take a percentage of the settlement. My take is SNH management will see them in court and will not be muscled because in my opinion Hamilton has a weak case. I still believe a shareholder that buys shares in the open market buy it at his/her own risk and can loose all the money. So how can they believe there is a money back guarantee? Further SNH the company was also ripped off by our friend Jooster and not just shareholders.

 

Unless the investments houses ( the likes of Allen Grey, Coronation and PIC and a few others) come to their senses and forget about supporting Hamilton there will be a delay in settling therefore is difficult to have a time line but I expect Hamilton will loose the court case and then the investment houses will be exposed and have to rush and buy shares to get back in because their holding will be very badly diluted with a RI and they need to average down.

 

Watch this in the near future there are going to be lots of nervous investment houses!!! My take share will rise steadily from here because of the need to average down.

 

Remember SNH can issue 16 bil shares and at present  they only have 4.2 bil in issue so a possible dilution of 1 to 4 and the likes of Allen Grey and Coronation would never recover they money. Interesting times ahead.

 

I believe that's why Old Mutual and PIC already have been buying up shares in the last few months.

 

For me the longer this takes the better because then PEPCO and Mattress Firm will be with much more then. If you recall there is talk that PEPCO EBITDA could be Eur 1 Bil that would make PEPCO value at over Eur 10 bil at a modest Multiple.

 

Saying all above my take is all will be done by 2023 that´s why management wanted to extend the CVA settlement date.

 

Please remember these are my own thoughts and not to give advise. All I can say all my trucks bakkies are full of SNH shares!!!

 

Haha love green beer!!!

[Olymphia]

Good afternoon Dtd

Thanks for your detailed responses. to my question.

What is the time line for this to be implemented?

Thanking you in advance 🙏

[DayTraderDad]

What will this do for the current investor who baught the share at it's current discounted price for R2

What is important is at what price will management decide to issue the rights and if they issue bellow the R2 you have enough cash to take up your rights.

 

I don´t believe SNH management will even attempt to issue shares at these price levels below is what I am expecting.

 

As per my calculation after all the dust has settled from claims and all litigation is finished I see the following valuation: (no more danger of fire sales)

 

All figures in Million

PEPCO - 60% holding, value of holding: Eur 3700

PEPKOR - 30% holding, value of holding: Eur 1090

Greenlit Brands - 30% holding, value of holding: Eur 265 

Mattress Firm - 30% holding, value of holding: Eur 1320

 

Total value of Holdings: Eur 6375

 

The corporate debt is Eur 9620 and expecting from sales of shares Eur: 5360 + Cash of Eur 1100 and CW debt of Eur 300 the net debt should be Eur 2860.

 

That should give a NAV of Eur 3515 or NAV per share of Eur 0.85.

 

Assuming the rights issue will be a ration of 1 for 1 then the issue price would be Eur 0.68 ( debt is Eur 2860) which at RoE 17.3 to the euro gives a Rand price of R11.78.

 

Therefore the total shares in issue would be about 8400 million with a NAV of Eur 6375 gives you a NAV per share of Eur 0.76 of R13.15 which case you still have made a fortune on your holding of 657% profit.

 

Them the big question how much will be the share price of PEPCO in 5 years time with a EBITDA of Eur 1 bil???

 

Anyway these are my figures and thoughts green beer time!!!

[Olymphia]

What will this do for the current investor who baught the share at it's current discounted price for R2

[DayTraderDad]

Ambivalent.

 

Dilution never benefits the current shareholders - but in the current situation Steinhoff is in, talking about future dilution means in that future Steinhoff will still have value, and that must be a good thing haha.

The right issue will be neutral with the exception on the discount given provided the money raised is used to settle debt. The NAV remain virtually the same, more share but no debt.

 

From my model I assuming that the RI will be when the share price is on about R15.25 and the RI share price should be 30% less at R10.72 and wold still give a NAV per share of R13.39 which is very good because SNH would have ZERO debt.

 

The steps that will develop for me are the following:

 

1 - IPO of PEPCO, MF and Greenlit Brands. 2021

 

2 - Sale down of holdings to the following:

     PEPCO 60% (SNH will maintain ownership because PEPCO is fast growing and overtaking PEPKOR)

     PEPKOR, MF and Greenlit Brands to 30%

 

3 - Rights issue for outstanding debt of about Eur 2602 mil

 

Time for green beer!!!

[Tentative]

Ambivalent.

 

Dilution never benefits the current shareholders - but in the current situation Steinhoff is in, talking about future dilution means in that future Steinhoff will still have value, and that must be a good thing haha.

 

Why will you not be happy? I am very very happy!!!

 

If you buy shares now at say R2 then after claims are settled and restructure of debt done the share price will be around let say R12.

 

Even if they issue 4200 million (same amount issued at present)  shares @ R12 would be with R6 minimum and all debt paid so still making a good profit.

 

It would be different if you bought shares at R12 then you would be forced to take up more shares on the offering otherwise you would be diluted.

 

Anyway would be interesting to hear others views!!! 

[Squideye]

Steinhoff se vergoeding, jaarstate weer afgekeur @ https://docdro.id/5YQ1Mfw

 

(Die jaarvergadering, wat amper twee uur lank was, is uitgesaai vanaf Amsterdam, waar aandeelhouers dit fisiek kon bywoon, maar niemand het nie. Net 39 aandeelhouers het die vergadering aanlyn bygewoon, met die meeste van die stemme wat deur ’n notaris verteenwoordig is.)

[DayTraderDad]

https://www.moneyweb...ing-equity-ceo/ I'm not happy if this happen they will dilute shareholders into oblivion.

Why will you not be happy? I am very very happy!!!

 

If you buy shares now at say R2 then after claims are settled and restructure of debt done the share price will be around let say R12.

 

Even if they issue 4200 million (same amount issued at present)  shares @ R12 would be with R6 minimum and all debt paid so still making a good profit.

 

It would be different if you bought shares at R12 then you would be forced to take up more shares on the offering otherwise you would be diluted.

 

Anyway would be interesting to hear others views!!! 

[Tiekkie]

https://www.moneyweb...ing-equity-ceo/ I'm not happy if this happen they will dilute shareholders into oblivion.

[DayTraderDad]

What came from the AGM .....Really don't car about Marcus Jooste

I was not expecting a very exiting AGM but noted a few items of interest:

 

1 - Talk of share issue after claims to raise equity is a possibility. This is for me good news because if after the claims are settled the share runs to R10 or R20 then  delusion is not that bad. Imagine you by your shares for R2 then you can finance your own purchase at a discount.

 

2 - No further purchasing of Mattress Firm but maybe an IPO which would be a good option. Mattress Firms is equity accounted so in it is listed and the share runs up imagine the value of the 50%!!

 

3 - Shareholders not approving the financials: Again this was only rejected by +-500 mil shareholders so for me it means nothing because SNH shares in issue is 4200 mil so that tells me 11% of the shareholders rejected. My suspicion is the Hamilton's and Naido's. Most shareholders don't care. Whats important is to settle the claims restructure the company then everybody will be happy.

 

4 - Very clear that management is doing very well but will have to wait for more bucks. I agree with management to issue shares as LTI at these level is not efficient way of doing it because the real value of SNH after claims is over R20.

 

These were my highlights interested to hear from others!! 

[Tiekkie]

What came from the AGM .....Really don't car about Marcus Jooste

[DayTraderDad]

Markus, Mayfair en R4 mjd. se PSG-aandele @ https://docdro.id/kLfvOHS

Haha this is the joke of the century!!! After reading this need a case of green beer!!!