7 votes
The Oracle
Posted 09 July 2019 - 06:46 PM
*yawn*
You see Lionel what I was trying to tell you, Curro was also one of those shares that every other analyst always said it was expensive but just kept going up In investing one must be very careful not to just see red that blocks your mind to find and see opportunity!!! You should take some time to learn!!!
The Oracle
Posted 09 July 2019 - 06:39 PM
yea market trend is kinda showing that...no movements.....i sold out, mentioned my reasons.....good luck to u guys. i'll be watching from sidelines to learn more
Yes the problem with you is inside you are in conflict with yourself because you know you should buy but other people influenced you not to and so you have dilemma that's why you always looking and commenting but too scared to take action.
The Oracle
Posted 09 July 2019 - 06:33 PM
*yawn*
What can I say haha you are blinded by your own stupidity. I told you over and over and even sent you a link how to be a day trader and that is what I do so its my business and don't trade for no one only myself.
The Oracle
Posted 09 July 2019 - 05:57 PM
yea market trend is kinda showing that...no movements.....i sold out, mentioned my reasons.....good luck to u guys. i'll be watching from sidelines to learn more
Sage
Posted 09 July 2019 - 05:33 PM
Its a waiting game now if youre invested....or trading....
Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app
yea market trend is kinda showing that...no movements.....i sold out, mentioned my reasons.....good luck to u guys. i'll be watching from sidelines to learn more
Advanced Member
Posted 09 July 2019 - 05:32 PM
still waiting on your flying saucer? lol...sorry couldnt resist.....i have learnt alot on this forum
Ha ha waiting. Friday is big and last year at 11 July the share rocket up. Don’t want to lose out.
The Oracle
Posted 09 July 2019 - 05:24 PM
still waiting on your flying saucer? lol...sorry couldnt resist.....i have learnt alot on this forum
Sage
Posted 09 July 2019 - 05:22 PM
Haha the day will come that you will remember these posts when you are sitting by the pub telling your friend how close you got to making it big!!! I remember buying Curro at R4 and telling my friends it was a great deal and everybody thought it was rubbish overvalued just like most investors on TV, Radio and news used to say then when I sold out at R50 my friends say " So sorry we missed the boat". So cheers lets talk soon.
PS: I don't need to send my CV I have my own trading business.
*yawn*
Sage
Posted 09 July 2019 - 05:16 PM
still waiting on your flying saucer? lol...sorry couldnt resist.....i have learnt alot on this forum
Advanced Member
Posted 09 July 2019 - 03:26 PM
Hi Captain,
yes yes I know I just had a look at Brait's valuation policy and they applied the multiple of 13. However I know that the risks and rewards etc for Steinhoff have a huge impact on this multiple.
However it is very interesting how close one gets to the values for example of Unitrans and the smaller subsidiary's.
And just another thought. At the IPO of STAR in 2017 STAR had and EBITDA of around 6,7 billion rand. Now taking the 13x multiple you get to a total value of 87,1 Billion. (From this value the debt still needs to be deducted)
STAR had a high of 25 rand per share in 2017. 3,45 Billion shares in issue @ 25 rand we get to 86 Billion. So that makes it reasonable right? And of course I only included 70% of the value in STAR to my calc.
I know that this valuation method is very simple and its based on a lot of assumptions. However for me the key part is that one can see what opportunities and value still lies in Steinhoff ib future.
Again this is my own thoughts and no recommendation for buying or selling. Just to exchange some ideas and possibilites
Hi Andi222,
As I said, it is interesting ...I should have added, "in the same way as watching a large ship crash into a harbour".
It is far too simplistic as it does not take the different trajectories going forward into account. Take Pepkor Africa (PA) and Pepkor Europe (PE) as examples.
As per the Steinhoff Q1 trading update:
If you had to choose only one share to invest in, where would you put your dollars? Note that PA has a larger EBITDA. Would you say it was more valuable that PE?
That is my point. A fixed multiple using a historical earnings is deeply flawed no matter who is using it. It was for precisely this reason that the principle of valuing a company using a discounted value of the sum of future cash-flows came into existence.
Interesting...
Regards
Captainfrom82
Master
Posted 09 July 2019 - 02:52 PM
Has snh management provided guidance on 20% difference with h1 2018
Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app
Nope, I doubt they will provide a trading statement. Only if they are reasonably sure they must provide one so in their current state I doubt they will issue one at all. We will have to wait for the numbers on Friday.
The Oracle
Posted 09 July 2019 - 02:49 PM
Interesting that there is no run-up to the numbers this time around.
Before the 2017 release we saw the price to move up a week until the numbers where released after which it dropped.
Sam scenario happened for the 2018 numbers.
This time the share price is stuck at 8 cents with basically no movement.
Master
Posted 09 July 2019 - 02:40 PM
Interesting that there is no run-up to the numbers this time around.
Before the 2017 release we saw the price to move up a week until the numbers where released after which it dropped.
Sam scenario happened for the 2018 numbers.
This time the share price is stuck at 8 cents with basically no movement.
The Oracle
Posted 09 July 2019 - 10:26 AM
Hi Captain,
yes yes I know I just had a look at Brait's valuation policy and they applied the multiple of 13. However I know that the risks and rewards etc for Steinhoff have a huge impact on this multiple.
However it is very interesting how close one gets to the values for example of Unitrans and the smaller subsidiary's.
And just another thought. At the IPO of STAR in 2017 STAR had and EBITDA of around 6,7 billion rand. Now taking the 13x multiple you get to a total value of 87,1 Billion. (From this value the debt still needs to be deducted)
STAR had a high of 25 rand per share in 2017. 3,45 Billion shares in issue @ 25 rand we get to 86 Billion. So that makes it reasonable right? And of course I only included 70% of the value in STAR to my calc.
I know that this valuation method is very simple and its based on a lot of assumptions. However for me the key part is that one can see what opportunities and value still lies in Steinhoff ib future.
Again this is my own thoughts and no recommendation for buying or selling. Just to exchange some ideas and possibilites
Andi have read in a number of articles the reason Pepkor SA share price is down is due to SNH troubles but in one of the presentation SNH mentioned analyst view PPH with R24.
Master
Posted 09 July 2019 - 09:03 AM
It is an interesting exercise.
However, the question remains, why is a multiple of 13x used? Why not 5x, or 30x?
As it turns out, using a multiple of 13x, I ran the exercise for Pepkor using their AFS released on 23 Nov 2018. On this day, Pepkor's share price was R18.40 which realised a market cap of R63.5b
Pepkor's EBITDA was R7062m which applying the 13x valuation gives us a valuation of R91.8b
That is 30% higher than what the market actually values the company.
Best Regards
Captainfrom82
Hi Captain,
yes yes I know I just had a look at Brait's valuation policy and they applied the multiple of 13. However I know that the risks and rewards etc for Steinhoff have a huge impact on this multiple.
However it is very interesting how close one gets to the values for example of Unitrans and the smaller subsidiary's.
And just another thought. At the IPO of STAR in 2017 STAR had and EBITDA of around 6,7 billion rand. Now taking the 13x multiple you get to a total value of 87,1 Billion. (From this value the debt still needs to be deducted)
STAR had a high of 25 rand per share in 2017. 3,45 Billion shares in issue @ 25 rand we get to 86 Billion. So that makes it reasonable right? And of course I only included 70% of the value in STAR to my calc.
I know that this valuation method is very simple and its based on a lot of assumptions. However for me the key part is that one can see what opportunities and value still lies in Steinhoff ib future.
Again this is my own thoughts and no recommendation for buying or selling. Just to exchange some ideas and possibilites
Advanced Member
Posted 09 July 2019 - 08:02 AM
It is an interesting exercise.
However, the question remains, why is a multiple of 13x used? Why not 5x, or 30x?
As it turns out, using a multiple of 13x, I ran the exercise for Pepkor using their AFS released on 23 Nov 2018. On this day, Pepkor's share price was R18.40 which realised a market cap of R63.5b
Pepkor's EBITDA was R7062m which applying the 13x valuation gives us a valuation of R91.8b
That is 30% higher than what the market actually values the company.
Best Regards
Captainfrom82
Advanced Member
Posted 09 July 2019 - 08:01 AM
I had a look at Brait's valuation policy and applied this to Steinhoff. I kept it very basic tho to get an indication of the value that's left in Steinhoff:
If we assume an EBITDA multiple of 13 which Brait has applied in average for their subsidiaries a very interesting picture arises:
If I apply this to the 2018 numbers I get a total value of 9,1 billion Euro. Subtracting the debt now we are actually at an NAV of -0,6 Billion.
Now I applied this onto my 2019 forecast numbers and very interesting I get to the following conclusion: I get a value of 10,5 billion. Subtracting the debt now we are actually at an NAV of 0,7 Billion.
Did the same for 2020 and here I even got to an NAV of 2,6 Billion.
What do you guys think of this kind of approach?
Again this is my own calculation and no advice/recommendation for buying or selling.
It is an interesting exercise.
However, the question remains, why is a multiple of 13x used? Why not 5x, or 30x?
As it turns out, using a multiple of 13x, I ran the exercise for Pepkor using their AFS released on 23 Nov 2018. On this day, Pepkor's share price was R18.40 which realised a market cap of R63.5b
Pepkor's EBITDA was R7062m which applying the 13x valuation gives us a valuation of R91.8b
That is 30% higher than what the market actually values the company.
Best Regards
Captainfrom82
The Oracle
Posted 08 July 2019 - 05:57 PM
I had a look at Brait's valuation policy and applied this to Steinhoff. I kept it very basic tho to get an indication of the value that's left in Steinhoff:
If we assume an EBITDA multiple of 13 which Brait has applied in average for their subsidiaries a very interesting picture arises:
If I apply this to the 2018 numbers I get a total value of 9,1 billion Euro. Subtracting the debt now we are actually at an NAV of -0,6 Billion.
Now I applied this onto my 2019 forecast numbers and very interesting I get to the following conclusion: I get a value of 10,5 billion. Subtracting the debt now we are actually at an NAV of 0,7 Billion.
Did the same for 2020 and here I even got to an NAV of 2,6 Billion.
What do you guys think of this kind of approach?
Again this is my own calculation and no advice/recommendation for buying or selling.
I had a look at Brait's valuation policy and applied this to Steinhoff. I kept it very basic tho to get an indication of the value that's left in Steinhoff:
If we assume an EBITDA multiple of 13 which Brait has applied in average for their subsidiaries a very interesting picture arises:
If I apply this to the 2018 numbers I get a total value of 9,1 billion Euro. Subtracting the debt now we are actually at an NAV of -0,6 Billion.
Now I applied this onto my 2019 forecast numbers and very interesting I get to the following conclusion: I get a value of 10,5 billion. Subtracting the debt now we are actually at an NAV of 0,7 Billion.
Did the same for 2020 and here I even got to an NAV of 2,6 Billion.
What do you guys think of this kind of approach?
Again this is my own calculation and no advice/recommendation for buying or selling.
Hi Andi222,
I cannot check dont know what is the Brait valuation maybe you can share more information.
Master
Posted 08 July 2019 - 02:33 PM
I had a look at Brait's valuation policy and applied this to Steinhoff. I kept it very basic tho to get an indication of the value that's left in Steinhoff:
If we assume an EBITDA multiple of 13 which Brait has applied in average for their subsidiaries a very interesting picture arises:
If I apply this to the 2018 numbers I get a total value of 9,1 billion Euro. Subtracting the debt now we are actually at an NAV of -0,6 Billion.
Now I applied this onto my 2019 forecast numbers and very interesting I get to the following conclusion: I get a value of 10,5 billion. Subtracting the debt now we are actually at an NAV of 0,7 Billion.
Did the same for 2020 and here I even got to an NAV of 2,6 Billion.
What do you guys think of this kind of approach?
Again this is my own calculation and no advice/recommendation for buying or selling.
