15225 replies to this topic

[DayTraderDad]

Hey DayTraderDad, 
 
I independently try to build a SOTP model for SNH before reading yours and I broadly agree with your numbers.  Where did you find the A$500 valuation for Greenlit / FF?  Does the A$500 include proceeds of the Plush disposal?
 
Thanks.

The figures of FF got from a news article and are close in line with valuations of the underlying business. No for me the proceeds of Plush is very little only A$100 mil which was used to pay debt.

Greenlit EBIDT is only Eur96 mil and at a reasonable multiple of 6 gives a maximum possible value of Eur 576 mil. I initially was estimatj g Eur 800 mil but that was way too much.

[galton]

Ok but where does the re-evaluation of "historic assets"  feature in these exercises. The summary of  statements according to that pdf mentioned that a re evaluation of these assets might completely change the indebtedness of Steinhoff.

Also, will you take millions of shares as a bonus allocation when you know that down - the - line the company is going to fail big time? Is there perhaps a couple of hidden treasures that might really change the current picture which might be revealed after the GS is done and dusted?  or is the hidden treasure a fairly tale?

I find the language of the PDF quite hard to read thanks to the computer translation from german.  I think what article is saying is that the large EUR 3.161bn negative equity is at historical cost, and I agree with that part of the article.  

 

Taking the listed investment at market value and trying to establish the value of the unlisted operations (MF and FF) is exactly what is needed to move away from (irrelevant) historical cost accounting.

[DayTraderDad]

Hey DayTraderDad, 
 
I independently try to build a SOTP model for SNH before reading yours and I broadly agree with your numbers.  Where did you find the A$500 valuation for Greenlit / FF?  Does the A$500 include proceeds of the Plush disposal?
 
Thanks.

[Trader001]

Hey DayTraderDad, 

 

I independently try to build a SOTP model for SNH before reading yours and I broadly agree with your numbers.  Where did you find the A$500 valuation for Greenlit / FF?  Does the A$500 include proceeds of the Plush disposal?

 

Thanks.

Ok but where does the re-evaluation of "historic assets"  feature in these exercises. The summary of  statements according to that pdf mentioned that a re evaluation of these assets might completely change the indebtedness of Steinhoff.

Also, will you take millions of shares as a bonus allocation when you know that down - the - line the company is going to fail big time? Is there perhaps a couple of hidden treasures that might really change the current picture which might be revealed after the GS is done and dusted?  or is the hidden treasure a fairly tale?

[galton]

Thanks Batra what I was referring to proper figures not  vague valuations.

 

No one has put any figures similar to below explaining their value or what holding they think will be at the end of the debt restructuring. 

 

For example at present the holding is as follows:?

 

1 - Pepco 78,9% value Eur 4 bil

2 - Pepkor holding 58,8% (before GS handouts) value Eur 2,7 bil

3 - MF holding 45% (after management shares are deducted) my guess Eur 1 Bil

4 - FF holding 100% estimates given in the media A$500 mil or Eur 0.35 bil

 

Total assets: Business units: Eur 8,1 bil  + Cash: Eur 1 bil = Eur 9,1 bil

Total Debt: Eur 9,3 bil + interest to 30/03/2022 ( six month only)  Eur 0.5 bil = Eur 9,8 bil

 

Equity value (NAV) : Eur - 0,7 or NAV per share: Eur 0,16 ( this will get much in the red by September 2022 and another 1 bil by 2023) 

 

So my question, what has to be sold by how much to pay down debt and then restructure loans and how much cash will be available to pay the yearly interest.

 

The bright red light for me is TdK saying they will sell off Pepco in chucks of 10 to 15% with no minimum holding yet this is the very same business that said will pay dividends 2 x cover of half of the profit which is much more than Pepkor ratio.

 

For me the reason they selling Pepco is because its the only business they have that has strong prospects and therefore can get more value out of it.

Hey DayTraderDad, 

 

I independently try to build a SOTP model for SNH before reading yours and I broadly agree with your numbers.  Where did you find the A$500 valuation for Greenlit / FF?  Does the A$500 include proceeds of the Plush disposal?

 

Thanks.

[Squideye]

Haha in the Bahamas selling tekkies!!!

 

Eish - selling fong kong tekkies from a petrol station, not at the beach     

[DayTraderDad]

Where is that china...??? Quiet, since the TT deal and share price hike 

Haha in the Bahamas selling tekkies!!!

[Squideye]

And not to forget the 7 mil shares bonus approval for LdP and 6 mil shares for TdK!!!

 

The Notice of AGM must be SENSed not later than coming Friday....

[Squideye]

Haha Zanme would be very exited if he left!!!

Where is that china...??? Quiet, since the TT deal and share price hike 

[DayTraderDad]

Not just LdP. Also TdK, MM, PC, HN and AW   

And not to forget the 7 mil shares bonus approval for LdP and 6 mil shares for TdK!!!

[Squideye]

from their website

Louis du Preez was appointed for a period that runs with effect from the conclusion of the AGM on 20 April 2018 until the close of the Company’s annual General Meeting to be held in 2022.

 

To be honest I would be nervous if he quits.....  

 

Not just LdP. Also TdK, MM, PC, HN and AW   

[DayTraderDad]

from their website

Louis du Preez was appointed for a period that runs with effect from the conclusion of the AGM on 20 April 2018 until the close of the Company’s annual General Meeting to be held in 2022.

 

To be honest I would be nervous if he quits.....  

Haha Zanme would be very exited if he left!!!

[Africa1962]

 

 

Steinhoff International Holdings N.V. (FSE: SNH Xetra; JSE: SNH SJ)

Q1 Trading update – quarter ended 31 December 2021 Friday, 25 February 2022 Annual General Meeting Friday, 25 March 2022

 

some dates to remember

[Africa1962]

 

 

Steinhoff International Holdings N.V. (FSE: SNH Xetra; JSE: SNH SJ)

Q1 Trading update – quarter ended 31 December 2021 Friday, 25 February 2022 Annual General Meeting Friday, 25 March 2022

 

some dates to remember

[Africa1962]

Also remember,  it was once alluded to  LdP's purpose was to   get the GS settlement accepted  by the claimants and that he will likely step down and be replaced by a CEO that can really drive and expand the business.

 

from their website

Louis du Preez was appointed for a period that runs with effect from the conclusion of the AGM on 20 April 2018 until the close of the Company’s annual General Meeting to be held in 2022.

 

To be honest I would be nervous if he quits.....  

[Trader001]

  "Over-indebtedness", "debt structure", "hidden reserves"...

Thanks. This was a very good informative summary.

 

Well to highlight aspects that struck a cord with me : There  are some 'hidden treasures'  ito smaller holdings which could perhaps be sold to ease the debt burden  held by the creditors? 

and what about the re- evaluation of 'historic assets' that might offset part of the large indebtedness?

Also the holding company will have, after GS:

MF 50%

Pepkor 50%

Pepco 78.9 %

 

That is good enough for me and even if Steinhoff sells a stake in Pepco to ease the debt burden, I still believe this share price will improve with time  

The expansion of Pepkor into Brazil also looks an exiting move  and I am sure if this works, expansion will proceed into other S/American countries as well.

 

Steinhoff is not a 'controlled liquidation' as far as I am concerned

 

and

 

I will eat my hat if this share ever goes to R2 again  and for that reason  I will not be selling any Steinhoff shares soon. I will be holding on to the shares I acquired from between 97c and 1.24 per share  during those earlier days of doom and gloom.

 

The company is just over indebted and I am sure management will make a plan to address it. Also remember,  it was once alluded to  LdP's purpose was to   get the GS settlement accepted  by the claimants and that he will likely step down and be replaced by a CEO that can really drive and expand the business.

[DayTraderDad]

    ...

 

Haha a Steinhoff Sleep!!!

[Squideye]

    ...

 

[DayTraderDad]

You still don’t get my point. A strategy thats based on valuation, you need to buy a share that’s undervalued to make a profit.

So, you value SNH at R2 currently. It drops to R2 tomorrow. Why would you still buy at R2 (provided PPH is not sold below 50%) knowing there’s a possibility of liquidation?

 

With so many conditions attached to “My trucks are ready at R2”, it's safe to say these so called trucks are nowhere in sight!!!

I think you don't get it!!! At present there is no announcement that the sale of Pepco below the 50 % is happening just my guess. Therefore until such time there is a change I start to see value in SNH below the R2.

 

If tomorrow there is a change so my valuation will change!!

[KP7]

Haha no all I was saying I see value at R2 at present ( that's why I said the trucks are ready) provided Pepco is not sold below 50% which case if it is sold I will then not buy one single share of SNH for long term holding because for me the value of SNH is in Pepco and not Pepkor. I don't buy into the Pepkor Samba dance!! It will take a long time to get returns from Brazil and will just consume cash l!!!

 

The controlled liquidation I mention was after TdK said delisting is an option going forward!!! They are two separate issues for me!! 

 

You still don’t get my point. A strategy thats based on valuation, you need to buy a share that’s undervalued to make a profit.

So, you value SNH at R2 currently. It drops to R2 tomorrow. Why would you still buy at R2 (provided PPH is not sold below 50%) knowing there’s a possibility of liquidation?

 

With so many conditions attached to “My trucks are ready at R2”, it's safe to say these so called trucks are nowhere in sight!!!