15225 replies to this topic

[DayTraderDad]

 

Mia Kruger @ 13:00 - Is Steinhoff a long term opportunity...? 

 

 

Haha rest my case!!!

[Squideye]

Mia Kruger @ 13:00 - Is Steinhoff a long term opportunity...? 

 

[DayTraderDad]

I agree it looks like a long road ahead to eat through the debt.Do you think a rights issue (ala Aveng)  is being considered? or will the amount required to make an impact on the debt result in too large a dilution? 

I have been thinking on the possibility of rights issue since LdP mention that to be a possibility and could make sense but not sure if people are willing to put more money into a holding company with negative equity.

 

Further one has to ask what would be the price? At present price of Eur 0,26 need to issue 3,8 bil share to get Eur 1 bil which means one would have to try and raise minimum Eur 4 bil thus would have 19,2 bil shares in issue.

 

This would be a massive dilution if lets say SNH future income is Eur 150 per year based on dividends that means EPS would go from Eur 0,0351 (with present shares issued) to Eur 0,0077.

 

There would be virtually no dividend.

 

But the most important question does it make sense to have a holding company listed in Frankfurt or simply distribute whats left with existing shareholders?

 

My take SNH share holders will be given  1 PPH share for  10 or 20 SNH shares. Giving a value of R2,2 to R1,10.

[Tonyh199]

Thanks Batra what I was referring to proper figures not  vague valuations.

 

No one has put any figures similar to below explaining their value or what holding they think will be at the end of the debt restructuring. 

 

For example at present the holding is as follows:?

 

1 - Pepco 78,9% value Eur 4 bil

2 - Pepkor holding 58,8% (before GS handouts) value Eur 2,7 bil

3 - MF holding 45% (after management shares are deducted) my guess Eur 1 Bil

4 - FF holding 100% estimates given in the media A$500 mil or Eur 0.35 bil

 

Total assets: Business units: Eur 8,1 bil  + Cash: Eur 1 bil = Eur 9,1 bil

Total Debt: Eur 9,3 bil + interest to 30/03/2022 ( six month only)  Eur 0.5 bil = Eur 9,8 bil

 

Equity value (NAV) : Eur - 0,7 or NAV per share: Eur 0,16 ( this will get much in the red by September 2022 and another 1 bil by 2023) 

 

So my question, what has to be sold by how much to pay down debt and then restructure loans and how much cash will be available to pay the yearly interest.

 

The bright red light for me is TdK saying they will sell off Pepco in chucks of 10 to 15% with no minimum holding yet this is the very same business that said will pay dividends 2 x cover of half of the profit which is much more than Pepkor ratio.

 

For me the reason they selling Pepco is because its the only business they have that has strong prospects and therefore can get more value out of it.

I agree it looks like a long road ahead to eat through the debt.Do you think a rights issue (ala Aveng)  is being considered? or will the amount required to make an impact on the debt result in too large a dilution? 

[Squideye]

My take PIC will be leaving SNH soon!!!

PIC is now after SNH the second biggest "known" holder on Pepkor

[DayTraderDad]

PIC from 1.84% (30. Sept. 2021) to 5.040%

My take PIC will be leaving SNH soon!!!

[Squideye]

PIC and Pepkor - Disclosure Of Acquisition Of Securities @ https://www.sharenet...0&seq=29&scode=

 

PIC from 1.84% (30. Sept. 2021) to 5.040%

[Africa1962]

PIC just uppped their ownership of peppies

[Batra]

Thanks Batra what I was referring to proper figures not vague valuations.

No one has put any figures similar to below explaining their value or what holding they think will be at the end of the debt restructuring.

For example at present the holding is as follows:?

1 - Pepco 78,9% value Eur 4 bil
2 - Pepkor holding 58,8% (before GS handouts) value Eur 2,7 bil
3 - MF holding 45% (after management shares are deducted) my guess Eur 1 Bil
4 - FF holding 100% estimates given in the media A$500 mil or Eur 0.35 bil

Total assets: Business units: Eur 8,1 bil + Cash: Eur 1 bil = Eur 9,1 bil
Total Debt: Eur 9,3 bil + interest to 30/03/2022 ( six month only) Eur 0.5 bil = Eur 9,8 bil

Equity value (NAV) : Eur - 0,7 or NAV per share: Eur 0,16 ( this will get much in the red by September 2022 and another 1 bil by 2023)

So my question, what has to be sold by how much to pay down debt and then restructure loans and how much cash will be available to pay the yearly interest.

The bright red light for me is TdK saying they will sell off Pepco in chucks of 10 to 15% with no minimum holding yet this is the very same business that said will pay dividends 2 x cover of half of the profit which is much more than Pepkor ratio.

For me the reason they selling Pepco is because its the only business they have that has strong prospects and therefore can get more value out of it.

Allow me to give it some thoughts over the weekend and revert

[DayTraderDad]

On this one DTD i totally disagree with you. You have been challenged and by many including Polla who is also extremely skilled in numbers.
The point is that others including me have been challenging you from a complete different angle than the rationale of financial ie the appreciation from the market about the intangible assets of SNH beyond any reference to mere numbers.
Even one of recent articles from financial media was talking about an ugly, a bad and a good scenario, looking at this share way beyond a balance sheet, a P&L, an indebtedness level and a cash position.
So i guess the truth about prediction is probably between your very financialy / logic driven approach and the less tangible appreciation of this share that some of us agree upon in this forum.
I will not hammer you with a 25R scenario every now and then. The repeated dark horizon of a R5 or less might just well be as unrealistic as the R84
As you put it nicely, investment is an individual decision

Thanks Batra what I was referring to proper figures not  vague valuations.

 

No one has put any figures similar to below explaining their value or what holding they think will be at the end of the debt restructuring. 

 

For example at present the holding is as follows:?

 

1 - Pepco 78,9% value Eur 4 bil

2 - Pepkor holding 58,8% (before GS handouts) value Eur 2,7 bil

3 - MF holding 45% (after management shares are deducted) my guess Eur 1 Bil

4 - FF holding 100% estimates given in the media A$500 mil or Eur 0.35 bil

 

Total assets: Business units: Eur 8,1 bil  + Cash: Eur 1 bil = Eur 9,1 bil

Total Debt: Eur 9,3 bil + interest to 30/03/2022 ( six month only)  Eur 0.5 bil = Eur 9,8 bil

 

Equity value (NAV) : Eur - 0,7 or NAV per share: Eur 0,16 ( this will get much in the red by September 2022 and another 1 bil by 2023) 

 

So my question, what has to be sold by how much to pay down debt and then restructure loans and how much cash will be available to pay the yearly interest.

 

The bright red light for me is TdK saying they will sell off Pepco in chucks of 10 to 15% with no minimum holding yet this is the very same business that said will pay dividends 2 x cover of half of the profit which is much more than Pepkor ratio.

 

For me the reason they selling Pepco is because its the only business they have that has strong prospects and therefore can get more value out of it.

[Squideye]

PIC and Pepkor - Disclosure Of Acquisition Of Securities @ https://www.sharenet...0&seq=29&scode=

[Batra]

On this one DTD i totally disagree with you. You have been challenged and by many including Polla who is also extremely skilled in numbers.
The point is that others including me have been challenging you from a complete different angle than the rationale of financial ie the appreciation from the market about the intangible assets of SNH beyond any reference to mere numbers.
Even one of recent articles from financial media was talking about an ugly, a bad and a good scenario, looking at this share way beyond a balance sheet, a P&L, an indebtedness level and a cash position.
So i guess the truth about prediction is probably between your very financialy / logic driven approach and the less tangible appreciation of this share that some of us agree upon in this forum.
I will not hammer you with a 25R scenario every now and then. The repeated dark horizon of a R5 or less might just well be as unrealistic as the R84
As you put it nicely, investment is an individual decision

[DayTraderDad]

A week has gone by and enough time has been had to digest all the financials. The market by the looks of things hasn’t dumped this share and I can only believe that with a clean audit, institutions will start creeping in here as a value play.

DTD, either you’re Leo di Caprio in ‘don’t look up’ or you’re fear mongering.

I’m at ease and feel confident in making this share a part of my value portfolio, no longer in the risky gamble basket.

I am very glad you are happy that's why investing is a individual game!!

 

No I am neither Loe of fear mongering simply being realistic putting figures down to try and see the end result and future valuation and warn those that believe in the rocket to the moon share price. ( R 84 )

 

To date no one in this forum been able to challenge me with figures how profitable SNH going to be going forward not even an estimate on  the debt restructuring and the final holdings!! No point even talking how o pay the interest .

 

Why don't you give it a go put some figures down explaining the future value maybe I can learn something?

 

Like Narina said the future SNH will be a small company and institution investors will not look at it!!

 

If I could have excess to Polish exchange I would have filled all my truck today with PEPCO shares because that's is where the real value is!! Fast growing with low debt!!

[Africa1962]

since 2018 PPH share price has remained much the same with very little growth (R15 to R25)......is it the SNH shenanigans that has kept market at bay.?

 

Now that GS is settled and new acquisition, should we  see PPH start to move a bit

 

I wonder was is fair value of PPH on Simply Wall

[DayTraderDad]

Who / what comes first...?     

Haha I guess the R84!!!

[new john]

A week has gone by and enough time has been had to digest all the financials. The market by the looks of things hasn’t dumped this share and I can only believe that with a clean audit, institutions will start creeping in here as a value play.

DTD, either you’re Leo di Caprio in ‘don’t look up’ or you’re fear mongering.

I’m at ease and feel confident in making this share a part of my value portfolio, no longer in the risky gamble basket.

[Squideye]

Haha will not my trucks are all parked on the R2 loading station!!!

 

Who / what comes first...?     

Attached Files

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[Squideye]

Simply Wall St - What You Need To Know About Pepkor Holdings Limited's Investor Composition @ https://simplywall.s...limiteds-jsepph

[Squideye]

  Why Pepkor's new Brazilian venture could make sense @ https://www.news24.c...-sense-20220204

[Squideye]

Leon Lourens on Business Day TV @

 

Edited by Squideye, 03 February 2022 - 07:30 PM.