15225 replies to this topic

[Squideye]

https://www.business...s-riot-fallout/

[DayTraderDad]

do you think dividends would be on the agenda?...would be a smart move ?

No dividends they asking shareholder permission to buy back 10% of the shares and to be able to give shares to senior manageme t as incentive up to 300% of annual salary.

You can get all info on this link: https://www.pepcogro...t-ESPI-reports/

[Squideye]

PEPKOR Trading Update For The Three Months Ended 31 December 2021 @ https://www.sharenet...00&seq=9&scode=

[Squideye]

do you think dividends would be on the agenda?...would be a smart move ?

Follow it with an alias Email address from 15:00 @ https://www.streamportal.nl/pepco/

Edited by Squideye, 27 January 2022 - 06:47 AM.

[Tiekkie]

2morrow Pepco AGM https://www.marketwa..._recentlyviewed

do you think dividends would be on the agenda?...would be a smart move ?

[Squideye]

2morrow Pepco AGM https://www.marketwa..._recentlyviewed

[Africa1962]

x

Edited by Africa1962, 26 January 2022 - 10:32 AM.

[Squideye]

  LdP @ https://iono.fm/e/1148227

[Squideye]

Identifying the swathe of losers and the sliver of winners in the Steinhoff debacle @ https://www.dailymav...inhoff-debacle/

[Squideye]

 

Haha if CW thought SNH was a rising phonix he would have not sold all his shares he had on SNH.  

 

 

Rising Phoenix...? 

Attached Files

•  Phoenix.jpg   516.34KB   14 downloads

[DayTraderDad]

@ DTD
My challenge to you is, as I indicated in the past, that you are by far too rational whilst the market is not.
I will proceed with a few comparisons to illustrate my thoughts
Whilst the share price of a company shall be driven only by objectives and factual information, we can daily verify that it is not true.
Is the over valuation of Tesla justified?
Why Air France KLM and Lufthansa have for the last 8 years (even more so now) have a market cap which is below the value of their respective assets
Why a dying Game Store has seen its share price going up in hundreds whilst agonizing
Why the economy of Covid has pushed market cap of some small pharmaceuticals to the roof over night without any predictable future?
There is no single financial / accounting rationale in these few examples. And the market is also emotional, subjective and under influence
In the case of SNH, we shall also be mindful of perspective and proportion.
What I mean by that is that we are talking about a stock which has lost 95% of its value from R90 to where we are today. And currently we would go fishing, green beer and buy Lambos () if the stock would go R12…..My point is that your very factual reasoning would make sense to prevent that stock to be a R40 or R50, definitely
But a R12 and maybe a R20, not at all. Because market analysts, private investors and other institutions might simply like the fact that SNH is a Dutch / South African phoenix which makes all efforts to rise again. And the market can be ready to give an irrational price to that.
After all, look at what SNH has accomplished so far bearing in mind that it could have disappeared 2 years ago and / or having been liquidated according to a unfavorable court ruling last quarter
Efforts are made. Results are coming. This has a price.
Beyond a balance sheet, a P&L and a cash flow statement

Hi Batra, indeed you are very correct and I sure support you. It is so many times I  get asked "do you play" in the stock exchange and my reply is always " I don't play I invest in companies listed in the stock exchange".

 

It is amazing to me how many people I know that invest in stocks and not once look at the financial they simply buy because someone said its going up. So no surprise why the market is like it is.

 

We cannot compare a company that purchases cheap goods worldwide put a markup and sells it to low price customers with a Tesla that provides new future technology and airlines that are risky business due to the volatility of travel patterns.

 

The very first question we need to ask why did SNH loose 95% of its value? The very reason that is happening today people not paying attention to the fundamental value of the company and buying on sentiment and emotion.

 

SNH management have done a great job in getting the company this far and getting the GS done but that does not mean the debt will simply evaporate like many people think.

 

LdP himself said there will be sale of assets to reduce the debt so my question to you,

 

1 - How much of the assets will be left after the sale?

 

2 - How much debt will be left and how will the interest be paid?

 

3 - Doing a DEBT to Equity Swop, What will be the dilution to the existing shareholders? Let say SNH gives 20 bil shares at 0,20 that will only cover 4 bil debt ( not sure how one would pay the rest, we can hope bond holders take a haircut of 70%) but would mean the existing 4,2 bil share of the new 24,2 bil totals share would be 17,3% so the creditors would own 82,7% of SNH. The existing share holders would only get 17,3% of future dividends! Do you agree with this example?

 

Haha if CW thought SNH was a rising phonix he would have not sold all his shares he had on SNH.  

[Africa1962]

Efforts are made. Results are coming. This has a price.
Beyond a balance sheet, a P&L and a cash flow statement

true that

 

....and hence why I am holding on...

[Batra]

@ DTD
My challenge to you is, as I indicated in the past, that you are by far too rational whilst the market is not.
I will proceed with a few comparisons to illustrate my thoughts
Whilst the share price of a company shall be driven only by objectives and factual information, we can daily verify that it is not true.
Is the over valuation of Tesla justified?
Why Air France KLM and Lufthansa have for the last 8 years (even more so now) have a market cap which is below the value of their respective assets
Why a dying Game Store has seen its share price going up in hundreds whilst agonizing
Why the economy of Covid has pushed market cap of some small pharmaceuticals to the roof over night without any predictable future?
There is no single financial / accounting rationale in these few examples. And the market is also emotional, subjective and under influence
In the case of SNH, we shall also be mindful of perspective and proportion.
What I mean by that is that we are talking about a stock which has lost 95% of its value from R90 to where we are today. And currently we would go fishing, green beer and buy Lambos (😃) if the stock would go R12…..My point is that your very factual reasoning would make sense to prevent that stock to be a R40 or R50, definitely
But a R12 and maybe a R20, not at all. Because market analysts, private investors and other institutions might simply like the fact that SNH is a Dutch / South African phoenix which makes all efforts to rise again. And the market can be ready to give an irrational price to that.
After all, look at what SNH has accomplished so far bearing in mind that it could have disappeared 2 years ago and / or having been liquidated according to a unfavorable court ruling last quarter
Efforts are made. Results are coming. This has a price.
Beyond a balance sheet, a P&L and a cash flow statement

[DayTraderDad]

Everybody wants a win win situation at the end of the day, and if it wasn`t feasible the business would have been sold.

 

Having said that, debt can always be restructured if there are profitable businesses at risk.

 

But I am a glass is half full kind of guy, so I assume there is a plan afoot.

This is how I see my glass half empty:

 

Corporate debt: Figures 2020 and 2021 from financial other extrapolated in Eur mil

31/03/2020  - 9439

31/03/2021 - 10396    Interest accrued 957 @ 10,14% for 12 months

31/03/2022 - 11450    Interest accrued 1054 @ 10,14% for 12 months

31/03/2023 - 12611    Interest accrued 1054 @ 10,14% for 12 months

31/12/2023 - 13570    Interest accrued 1054 @ 10,14% for 9 months

 

Total debt on 31/12/2023 - 13570

 

Valuation of SNH today:

 

Pepco group - Holding 453 mil shares  @ 39,47 Zloty per share or Eur 8,62 per share having a value of Eur 3,910 mil

Pepkor Group - Holding 58,8% (assuming settlement is done in cash only which is the best scenario) at R22,97 per share value of holding: Eur 2888 mil

MF: I evaluated at multiple of 8 times EBITDA ( due to the debt I expect it will actually be much less) gives a value for the 45% holding of  Eur 958 mil

FF: I am giving a value of Eur 600 mil ( which might be a little high) 

 

Total value of SNH business units today ( I have excluded all the other small units to facilitate the calculation)= Eur 8352

 

I assumed all cash is used to payout the GS therefore as of today the deficit is Eur 5,2 bil therefore PEPCO and PEPKOR and MF need to grow very fast until 2023 just to pay the debts not to mention to create value for shareholders and pay dividends!!!

 

Hope this explains why my cup is half empty at this price level!!!

[Squideye]

Bloomberg News

 

.....“This is done and dusted and behind us,” Steinhoff’s former chairperson Christo Wiese, who was also the company’s biggest shareholder at the time of the collapse, said by phone.....

 

 

https://www.bloomber...nt-to-investors

Attached Files

•  20220125.pdf   1.02MB   3 downloads

[Squideye]

 

When I read comment of hyper up thoughts with no backup I find it necessary to remind people of the dangers ahead because there are a number of people reading and then run with ideas that the price is going to the moon very soon!!!

 

That was visible as usual yesterday morning with some nutcases on Ariva. Many have "placed" their Lambo orders again. Wonder if that's the result for      ...https://gettotext.co...lmost-sold-out/

Edited by Squideye, 25 January 2022 - 11:55 AM.

[Dusty Mountain]

Everybody wants a win win situation at the end of the day, and if it wasn`t feasible the business would have been sold.

 

Having said that, debt can always be restructured if there are profitable businesses at risk.

 

But I am a glass is half full kind of guy, so I assume there is a plan afoot.

 

 

[DayTraderDad]

Agreed! And it's good to check your confirmation bias regularly.

 

Difference is that I'm not running to the forum repeating my findings over & over (and that so far you've been proven wrong by the market  ).

I sincerely hope for everyone sake that I am totally wrong!!! As for the market its just time!!! Lets wait for the 14th Feb then we all celebrate with KP7!!!

 

When I read comment of hyper up thoughts with no backup I find it necessary to remind people of the dangers ahead because there are a number of people reading and then run with ideas that the price is going to the moon very soon!!!

 

A classic on is "don't worry about the debt simply issue debt-equity swops" do people really understand what they saying!!! How can this be done with a company with negative equity and the shareholders going to enjoy a high share price rise!!!?

 

Why don't you (in fact others also) challenge me with some figures how you see me being wrong and how the debt is no problem at all!?

[DayTraderDad]

when they start buying more shares then we will know there commitment to SNH

Or when the secret agreement is made public!!!

[Tiekkie]

PIC welcomes High Court's approval of proposed Steinhoff settlement @ https://www.engineer...-25/rep_id:4136

when they start buying more shares then we will know there commitment to SNH