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#12761 DayTraderDad

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 09:56 AM

I'm embarrassed for myself for getting swept away with emotions. I should know much better and have applied fundamentals to this much earlier. Alas. So easy to get swept away by the crowd. This article that article about positive signs.

Fundamentally, this thing is f'ed. Creditors are the only ones left to really benefit

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Leo you should not feel embarrassed trading is all about ignoring all the media, comments because they are noise. I scan all articles comments then make up my mind pending in my thoughts and calculations. Everybody talking about the debt of E9.8 bil but if you take the sales of Kika, the settlement of POCO and when they get to take back the E350 mil that they gave Wiese in advance that equated to about E1.3bil so the debt is now E8.5 bil. Once managements gets all business running well they should be operating on a EBITDA of about E1.2 bil which is 7% of Turnover. With a debt/EBITDA of x5 they can carry a debt of E6.3 bil fwd after 2012, So they have 3 years to sell assets (my view they will reduce holding of Pepko SA) to get the E2.2 bil. If one takes into account that Pepko Europe is growing things will be much different in 3 years. Anyway hope this make you feel better.


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#12762 leo

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 09:43 AM

Might wait until share drops below R2. If not, at least i still have my cash.

Good luck to everyone else

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#12763 leo

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 09:20 AM

Leo looks like you going have your shopping day today...i wanted sell my shares at little profit and go shopping now as well :/ oh well guess more waiting for me


Going down fast

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#12764 leo

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 09:05 AM

Good point Leo,

I was very positive about SNH, and still believe they can come out other side in a different form.
I have however sold all my shares due to your exact point (and some other minor concerns).
They have been afforded some grace from creditors and additional funding lines.
I do not know however how they plan to settle this debt.
At least in short to medium term there is now chance. - Maybe on long term with operational and business restructuring.

I don't believe at this point it can be celebrated when they receive new credit lines.
Debt is only good if it will be used to increase revenue and the funding lines can be repaid.


I'm embarrassed for myself for getting swept away with emotions. I should know much better and have applied fundamentals to this much earlier. Alas. So easy to get swept away by the crowd. This article that article about positive signs.

Fundamentally, this thing is f'ed. Creditors are the only ones left to really benefit

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#12765 Matrix

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 08:57 AM

Think about it.

Normalised EBITDA is about 800€, 9.8b debt at 10% ie 980€ interest. No profit.

Sale of assets is unavoidable and they should start with MF.



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Good point Leo,

 

I was very positive about SNH, and still believe they can come out other side in a different form.

I have however sold all my shares due to your exact point (and some other minor concerns).

They have been afforded some grace from creditors and additional funding lines.

I do not know however how they plan to settle this debt.

At least in short to medium term there is now chance. - Maybe on long term with operational and business restructuring.

 

I don't believe at this point it can be celebrated when they receive new credit lines.

Debt is only good if it will be used to increase revenue and the funding lines can be repaid.


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#12766 Lionelza1

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 08:49 AM

Think about it.

Normalised EBITDA is about 800€, 9.8b debt at 10% ie 980€ interest. No profit.

Sale of assets is unavoidable and they should start with MF.



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Yet they ask for more money  and we've seen markets reactions to that.....the amount of stores in such close proximity does not make sense at all and to me does not justiy capturing the market....surely the costs are crippling...close up some stores will def. make a difference to their bottom line....selling MF just yet......nah


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#12767 Ms Jet

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 08:49 AM

Frankfurt dipped quite bit last night so if knock on affect leo you could get your chance
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#12768 leo

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 08:49 AM

Leo looks like you going have your shopping day today...i wanted sell my shares at little profit and go shopping now as well :/ oh well guess more waiting for me


Think so. This share makes me extremely nervous. It only trades on sentiment.

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#12769 Ms Jet

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 08:45 AM

Leo looks like you going have your shopping day today...i wanted sell my shares at little profit and go shopping now as well :/ oh well guess more waiting for me
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#12770 leo

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 08:33 AM

Think about it.

Normalised EBITDA is about 800€, 9.8b debt at 10% ie 980€ interest. No profit.

Sale of assets is unavoidable and they should start with MF.



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#12771 JK001

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 07:16 PM

These are my thoughts, this way SNH can exchange shares for creditor debt. I think Hemisphere property is going to be sold (no point to pay 10% inerest on the loans) and the debt paid and who ever uses the properties will pay rental to the property owners.My vision is that at the end there will listings of MF, Pepkor Europe, Conforama listed and Greenlit with SNH has holding 51% of all listed companies with a EBITDA of about Euro450 mil per year with a debt of Euro 2.5 to 2.8. I also think they going to sell the share holding in Pepkor SA to 51%. As for the liabilities there has still to be proved that there was fraud committed and over evaluation with backup paper work don't think is fraud. VEB claim will eventually disappear as well as the Wiese and other because after all this restructure the share could well get back to the R20 or R30 ever a period of 5 years and therefore there would be limited looses to the hold shareholders. Maybe I am smoking green tobacco but sounds good to me. Hahaha

Think you spot on 'dad'. 

 

Creditors at this point a very expensive financing agreement, obviously influenced with the risk.  Although 'investor funding' is a cheaper option it may be harder to find investors due to SOTP and reputation with MF being the main blockage.   The IPO will have to be not over ambitious as most are.  The obvious move for SNH will be to 'take' all of the IPO as a long term loan at much more reasonable terms than the creditors and get rid of the creditors 1 by 1, or use to restructure/refinance MF (if MF cannot obtain own funding).  

The current CEO of MF, Steve Stagner has previously built up MF to where it was - you have to give credit to SNH, they brought in the-best-of-the-best. I am still a bit concerned that they only have CAs, Lawyers and Restructuring gurus at the top - innovation is lagging.  

 

Obviously lot of competition from Amazon and other e-commerce players in the US space.  Strong $ makes losses stronger (regrettably).

 

SNH is second only to IKEA, IKEA is privately owned, so hard to do a financial comparison, granted they have different target audiences.

 

The court cases will come and go, shareholders should put on their big boy/girl panties and get over it - investing has risks - the banks offer great returns for risk adverse investors.

 

Shareholders of Capitec did not sue Viceroy (shortsellers) or Capitec when the price dropped.

 

Here is the irony - If you (hypothetical you, no you as dad) are with VEB and were a SNH shareholder and are suing SNH, you are suing the shareholders that did not sell and still lost value (+ some of us that understand the underlying value + the balls punters).  If you are with VEB and is still a SNH shareholder you are suing yourself (+ previous point others).

 

Someone mentioned conspiracy between SNH and creditors: dude or dudette - your social media license should be revoked because you fall in the fake news category. 

 

When all of this comes to rest, the current board team needs to get a big enough bonus to have them lifelong medical and a piece of an island somewhere.  The medical aid is to regrow hair and remove stress wrinkles :-) and in some cases tread excess stress weight accumulation, ulcers etc.


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#12772 Tom

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 06:35 PM

Honestly. Ok

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At least that's what is there, so far, on the previous and the latest financial statements.


Edited by Tom, 27 September 2018 - 06:37 PM.

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#12773 leo

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 06:31 PM

The tangible assets of Steinhoff is already more than the debt.

And on the other hand, when selling any of Steinhoff assets, the intangibles in it (Goodwill/brand) will always add value to it.


Honestly. Ok

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#12774 leo

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 06:27 PM

People with deep pockets have very few opportunities for gauranteed gains in excess of 5%.....these lenders hunt for such opportunities... They can afford to ride this out over three years... And then longer. They buy distressed debt at 25% discount.. Get an additional 10% per annum and transaction fees and also utilize cheap debt secured at 2% to Greece the transaction.... It's clearly win win... For the filthy rich....


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Exacto

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#12775 Tom

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 06:21 PM

Cause selling intangible assets and goodwill, well will get you nothing. Tangible NAV is negative....if I got a Rand for every time I've said said this...

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The tangible assets of Steinhoff is already more than the debt.

 

And on the other hand, when selling any of Steinhoff assets, the intangibles in it (Goodwill/brand) will always add value to it.


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#12776 Investment novice

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 06:18 PM

Creditors certainly didn't do it for their good health


People with deep pockets have very few opportunities for gauranteed gains in excess of 5%.....these lenders hunt for such opportunities... They can afford to ride this out over three years... And then longer. They buy distressed debt at 25% discount.. Get an additional 10% per annum and transaction fees and also utilize cheap debt secured at 2% to Greece the transaction.... It's clearly win win... For the filthy rich....


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#12777 leo

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 06:17 PM

Why would the creditors stand to lose the most if the current (and previous) evaluation of Steinhoff assets will be more than the debt, and on the other hand the yearly revenue of Steinhoff is also more than the debt.

Maybe the creditors chose to restructure because for them the debt to be serviced will be better than just liquidate and take their money back.


Cause selling intangible assets and goodwill, well will get you nothing. Tangible NAV is negative....if I got a Rand for every time I've said said this...

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#12778 Ms Jet

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 06:04 PM

Creditors certainly didn't do it for their good health
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#12779 Tom

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 05:56 PM

Conspiring is a strong word.... creditors stand to loose the most now. Shareholders have already lost say..95%.

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Why would the creditors stand to lose the most if the current (and previous) evaluation of Steinhoff assets will be more than the debt, and on the other hand the yearly revenue of Steinhoff is also more than the debt.

 

Maybe the creditors chose to restructure because for them the debt to be serviced will be better than just liquidate and take their money back.


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#12780 Lionelza1

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 05:56 PM

You have an opinion totally different to the opinion of leo.

yes rememeber im also a newbie....financials thats not audited, information is not gauranteed meaning companies manipulate figures as and when they see fit and most times do a restatement when audited

 

Auditors have an obligation and code of conduct to follow (doesnt seem to be happening though). Those figures can be trusted as they request supporting documents for transactions, they get those documents, they sign off, no proof, no sign off, no sign off, we get what we got now with snh.


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