15225 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

Distressed Debt investment strategies allows for rirr of 20-30% over 2 years. Private equity companies take over management control, restructure, refinance debt and get paid out as well as retain equity.
If they wanted they could even delist and relist. But this would require legal settlement...

I wrote about this as a plausible scenario hope to see some journalist pickup up and expand with interviews...

Whats in it for shareholders.. For new shareholders we go for along the journey recovering value.

Research thus far is aligned. And as a betting person I see more upside convincingly fo creditors to lock in and sign. I am hedging they will sign. Will pump available funds Monday as we may see sens on Tuesday or ahead of Friday deadline..

Will also continue to invest until mid August as all research proves to turnaround efforts implemented especially poundland with 300 pepco stores.. New conforama downsizing and mattress firm repositioning and marketing.

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[Investment novice]

Don't know why I get sucked into giving my 5c.

Nav will not improve substantially over the short term as it doesn't matter if debt is short or long classification. Nav is usually the min that a co will trade at.

In the case of stein, nav is trading at a deep discount, which will improve as uncertainties subside.

These type of buz should be valued on a forward multiple or dcf model, which is usually higher for retail buz, compared to eg manufacturing.

After a few positive trading updates, and improvement in ebitda, value should increase more than nav.

Even though interest will not be physically paid, debt will still grow and be accounted for a cash and debt adjustment. But this arrangement will go a long a long way in stabilising the co working cap.

If the creditors sign and positive operating results are received for 2 or more Q. Then we should be moving closer to R10.

Hopefully pwc doesn't impair any further goodwill. And for the non ifrs peeps, impairment of goodwill can never be reversed. Capish

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Thank you for your 5c
It contributes to constructive conversation. Pls continue to share thoughts. In the coming days I want to explore viabilities on distressed debt strategies and ownership strategies above and beyond debt repayment. Which motivates longer term investment.
Agree with Polly on technicals and excitement at R5. And i am already in massive profits and due to volume each 10cent gain allows me knewer dreams.. Hopefully not nightmares... My tolerance level is at R1. 30.
Disagree with Polly on legal cases as even though there will be massive information courts don't only act on information but also on intention and ensuring the real culprits are accountable. There is still the issue on precedence... And you may find evidence on this... Regarding write offs... Nice all historic... Regarding tax... They may not have any tax liabilities and potentially tax credits....

Pls continue commenting on technicals and fundamentals... Love this chats as adds to media content..

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[leo]

Again. It talks to fundamentals, which you can't be faulted on. Market thrives on sentiment. this is a share where you maybe talk a small position in, and take it from there. Too many unknowns thus far.

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[leo]

Don't know why I get sucked into giving my 5c.

Nav will not improve substantially over the short term as it doesn't matter if debt is short or long classification. Nav is usually the min that a co will trade at.

In the case of stein, nav is trading at a deep discount, which will improve as uncertainties subside.

These type of buz should be valued on a forward multiple or dcf model, which is usually higher for retail buz, compared to eg manufacturing.

After a few positive trading updates, and improvement in ebitda, value should increase more than nav.

Even though interest will not be physically paid, debt will still grow and be accounted for a cash and debt adjustment. But this arrangement will go a long a long way in stabilising the co working cap.

If the creditors sign and positive operating results are received for 2 or more Q. Then we should be moving closer to R10.

Hopefully pwc doesn't impair any further goodwill. And for the non ifrs peeps, impairment of goodwill can never be reversed. Capish

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[Polly]

There are skeptics that this company is worth nill but as we saw with lonmin in 2016 the share price rallied to r40.

 

 

Still of opinion this is worth nil going forward.  The higher the price goes ( if you say this is because of NAV) , the higher will be the claims against the company as chances of recoverability for the creditor  will be greater.

 

 At moment price action in my opinion is basically short covering on break of R2.00 to upside and turning out to be an almighty squeeze. 

 

Any price close to R4.00 will be a good selling opportunity.

 

Will only become interested to buy again if price breaks above R5.00

 

 

Just my 2c and still not excited about this share.

 

Good Luck IN,  hope you fullfill your dreams though.

[Investment novice]

Where is interest coming from....

Investors with big pockets seek “good companies with bad balance sheets”— firms with sustainable businesses and positive cash flow but whose financial situation is distressed. The investment team conducts extensive research and analysis using top-down/bottom-up approach to find undervalued opportunities and typically seeks to make non-operational control investments in troubled businesses. This provides the strategy maximum trading flexibility and allows investment professionals to focus on pre-investment research and analysis rather than post-investment operating issues.
The strategy generally targets:

Distressed securities

Bank debt

Stressed high yield debt

Event-driven situations

Restructured and post-reorganization equities

Trade claims


Some reading for the weekend....


And finally...

I am trying to get a better sense of the evolving nav and share price targets folliwng restructuring. Currently share trading at 65% discount to Nav. But nav can start to improve especially with changes in:liabilities and accounting models, operational transformation and debt holder strategies evolve.... This may be a premature question but it is certainly what forward looking investment houses that focus on high risk investments look at.....

Any thoughts??????

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[Investment novice]

Looks like Germans are backing the stock large number of analysts had a hold and wait and see.
Interesting that it is now a srong buy.

https://m.za.investi...national-hld-(j)-technical?cid=963617

I would guess that technicals would be upward with massive surge.

would expect snh to inform market already wed or Thursday on finalisation if not by tuesday... Then expected continued aggressive momentum for two to three days with some profit taking and then when stabilized continued momentum albeit at subdued increases for a while towards August sens.

A few questions

Could this share reach levels in med teens by August or even Jan 2019

The salvage value recovery is a pittance of what the original Share price.

Should we be holding the share and ignoring the flutters as pivate equity debt holders would be happy to double dip..
Grow share value and get Debt repayment for a longer period.

Really hope older investors and Pic got more shares or jump in and ride the wave for some value gains as they certainly will not be getting these quantum in court anytime soon...


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[Snippit]

Please may I request of anyone has technical analysis 

 

Steinhoff, hourly...

 

https://wavecount.bl...inhoff-snh.html

 

Steinhoff produces another bear trend correction. The final leg down could well the last.

 

[Investment novice]

Please may I request of anyone has technical analysis and also analyst reports based on the companies trajectory now and after signing to share with us.... We need to ride the wave and be cautious yet at the same time also understand what the true upside is excluding litigation impact....

Important to be constructive and look at scenarios.. So that if the salve value is at r12. We not exiting at R7.

There are skeptics that this company is worth nill but as we saw with lonmin in 2016 the share price rallied to r40.

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[Investment novice]

Due credit to you,IN. You held your nerve and stood firm, and now reap the rewards

Pls note that this a great opportunity but the major risk still stands and we can be more confident with the signatures from creditors..

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[Shi]

https://www.business...greement-2018-7

 

Interesting read - thanks for sharing. Where can one find a list of most shorted stocks on JSE? Also, how do they measure "most shorted" - value, number of shares, etc. ?

[Spree]

I have written extensively on this share and sometimes famed as pumping. The reality is the market is going in one direction and the balance should be struck.... Time for reversion.
I belive this hare can easily reach R5, and even r7... Some predict even more.. R7, is achievable... Read the followinghttps://www.business...greement-2018-7
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Due credit to you,IN. You held your nerve and stood firm, and now reap the rewards

[Investment novice]

I have written extensively on this share and sometimes famed as pumping. The reality is the market is going in one direction and the balance should be struck.... Time for reversion.
I belive this hare can easily reach R5, and even r7... Some predict even more.. R7, is achievable... Read the following

https://www.business...greement-2018-7




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[leo]

Very good point. Apparently the remainder of the GW is allocated to the better assets.

Maybe R4 if creditors sign. After that, we'll have to look at trade updates.

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[SoleTrader]

The NAV is definitely not R9.  Strip out the goodwill and the intangibles and the NAV is negative

Can expect even more volumes and price changes when agreements signed. There is still concern and apprehension in the media that this is not a certainty.

Be interesting to see if r3, will be breached by end Friday and or r4 by speculators wanting to get in pre 16 or 20 July finalisation.

Two scenarios... First... Speculators afraid to miss the boat may pump share now... And second scenario. Risk averse may get in partly now and partly with certainty or fully in on the 20th hoping to join the wave...

Demand will hopeful dampen share price volatility and profit takers.... With the nav at r9..... Can expect vulture trading all the way to r7ish for salvage value.

Really hope old shareholders have been buyers at R1 or return to get some value back at existing current price levels.

Despite all above. Pls note that this is high risk and share can drop to R1, again very easily if agreements not signed or low, R2 if delays... Expecting r5, to be breached with certainty and signatures.

Personally invested in the share and continue to buy the wave.

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[Investment novice]

playing like a charm now

Can expect even more volumes and price changes when agreements signed. There is still concern and apprehension in the media that this is not a certainty.

Be interesting to see if r3, will be breached by end Friday and or r4 by speculators wanting to get in pre 16 or 20 July finalisation.

Two scenarios... First... Speculators afraid to miss the boat may pump share now... And second scenario. Risk averse may get in partly now and partly with certainty or fully in on the 20th hoping to join the wave...

Demand will hopeful dampen share price volatility and profit takers.... With the nav at r9..... Can expect vulture trading all the way to r7ish for salvage value.

Really hope old shareholders have been buyers at R1 or return to get some value back at existing current price levels.

Despite all above. Pls note that this is high risk and share can drop to R1, again very easily if agreements not signed or low, R2 if delays... Expecting r5, to be breached with certainty and signatures.

Personally invested in the share and continue to buy the wave.

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[Polly]

there you go. Pile in

 playing like a charm now

[Investment novice]

3million pre opening trades up to. 18euros

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[Investment novice]

Another 20million shares sold price back up to r2. 60 ish mark 0.16 euros

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[Investment novice]

100 million shares piled in majority frankfurt. There are lots more eager to jump in with assurity after 20july...today only indication of commencement of process... Not too late to get in... Should be able to ride the wave all the way to August financials with some up and down profit taking... But it seems salvage value of snh shares my be at R7 to 9....... Next 6 quarters of financials will beat the previous years as turnaround plans in play..... However hold your jubilation until 20 July... Still extremely high risk as there could be delays with sign off as indicated in sens.

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