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Ascendis Health Ltd. – JSE:ASC


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#41 AnbanM

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 03:37 PM

Cancelation of statement, complexity of reporting.
....trust revision is beneficial



Help me out here IN , bit green here...what does this mean , what would have caused it ?
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#42 Investment novice

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 03:14 PM

Cancelation of statement, complexity of reporting.
....trust revision is beneficial
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#43 Investment novice

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 02:41 PM

Engaged a pharm friend working for a big multinationational and his thoughts. The dossier and detailed dd allows ascendis to fast track and motivate the sale at a higher price and this is specifically guided by their translation advisor that is working on a sale strategy. But they also able to extract dossiers and products from the sale where there may be duplication and or leverage specific items for use in the reminder business and markets.

So chaps...patients patience and buy the dips
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#44 andi222

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 01:22 PM

Andi waiting on your analysis and also comments on the statement by ceo that the financials does not represent the valuation in the accounting.
Will see speculators exit but may also see insitutional buyers take a position for their high risk funds.

 

Guys don't panic - I will do a detailed analysis over the weekend. 

 

Just super busy currently. 


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#45 Investment novice

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 01:00 PM

I think management have done a great job. And we should re evaluate their target to already engage a buyer within this 3 months with a sens.
Sarfi has pharma experience and what he has done is prepare the business for sale and make the valuation a no brainer as well as position it to include revenue and ebitda for q1 2021 on the back of historical 2020. With low debt environment internationally and hunger for growth even entity like aspen can sweep in for 400 to 500m. However I think a Chinese or Japanese entity may make the play to get the footprint. Don't rule out bidvest.

Let's give management a chance.....delevrage and turn around is completed with focus on growth and there will still be opportunity across eastern Europe for growth ....
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#46 Shi

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 12:58 PM

https://twitter.com/...259937599782915 ... waiting to hear what else he has to say.


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“One day Alice came to a fork in the road and saw a Cheshire cat in a tree. Which road do I take? she asked. Where do you want to go? was his response. I don't know, Alice answered. Then, said the cat, it doesn't matter.” - Lewis Carroll

#47 Blackobar

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 12:48 PM

That "By mid next year" talk won't cut it. Management needs to show and prove. Why should the market believe management when they've failed to dispose this asset before? How much are they selling the family jewels for? These guys have a little to no cred on the streets now, to regain that they have to show and prove.

Disclaimer: I Hold Asc in my portfolio.
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#48 Investment novice

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 12:16 PM

Cool, no buyers for share or remedica....someone is buying or mopping up the shares on auction.issue is other exchanges trigger a sell at availing price without limits....

But works both ways right....hopefully we get more demand ....cut your loss or look away with realizing the loss on a sale
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#49 DeltaHedge

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 12:14 PM

Well between ASC, APN and SNH my portfolio has been hammered. I took too many risks and at this stage it has backfired...going to be a long recovery. 

 

Prior to COVID any good news was reflected in the share prices, but these days it seems to have to be exceptional news before there is any positive movement.

 

The only thing that will impact ASC is the sale of Remedica, which has both positives and negatives attached to it.

 

I sincerely hope we are not heading for the 30c region again, but the negative reaction to the financials is not giving me much confidence.

 

Yea i know your pain


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#50 Shi

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 11:58 AM

I have just settled myself to accept the 30c as a scenario and if that is the case will load at 30c.
However does not need to be a reality as the share price is dropping by low volume speculators and there is no reason why the opposite can't occur...
Going to bury my head in the sand convinced that there is still significant inherent value and the roadmap is articulated and we going to have to bite the bullet

 

Correction - SP is dropping because there are no buyers


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“One day Alice came to a fork in the road and saw a Cheshire cat in a tree. Which road do I take? she asked. Where do you want to go? was his response. I don't know, Alice answered. Then, said the cat, it doesn't matter.” - Lewis Carroll

#51 Investment novice

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 11:49 AM

I have just settled myself to accept the 30c as a scenario and if that is the case will load at 30c.
However does not need to be a reality as the share price is dropping by low volume speculators and there is no reason why the opposite can't occur...
Going to bury my head in the sand convinced that there is still significant inherent value and the roadmap is articulated and we going to have to bite the bullet
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#52 Leadingedge

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 11:38 AM

Well between ASC, APN and SNH my portfolio has been hammered. I took too many risks and at this stage it has backfired...going to be a long recovery. 

 

Prior to COVID any good news was reflected in the share prices, but these days it seems to have to be exceptional news before there is any positive movement.

 

The only thing that will impact ASC is the sale of Remedica, which has both positives and negatives attached to it.

 

I sincerely hope we are not heading for the 30c region again, but the negative reaction to the financials is not giving me much confidence.


Edited by Leadingedge, 30 September 2020 - 11:38 AM.

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#53 Investment novice

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 11:17 AM

Share getting clapped. Painful to watch...
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#54 Investment novice

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Posted 30 September 2020 - 09:57 AM

A colleague advised that this share will be propped up by insitutional ownership and by ascendis company related purchases for incentives. We may also see directors and others buying.
I can attest to the validity of the statement.

Further if ascendis is aiming to conclude the sale mid 2021, we should certainly expect some news supporting engagements or interest within the weeks to months before December.

Ascendis may issue a sens end October indicating q1 to end september financials to support the remedica sale.

Not sure if any of this is true ....indications would be the leveling of the share at its current base ajd some demand...
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#55 Investment novice

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Posted 29 September 2020 - 11:42 PM

So I'm not gonna go into too much details of how to value ASC.
But just on a high level to show how ridiculously undervalued ASC is at the moment in my opinion:
If you look at the EBITDA for the half year ASC has generated 611 Million rands. So let's assume they could generate 800 Million EBITDA for the full year. Given an EBITDA multiple of 10. Which is very conservative. You get to a value of 8 Billion. Now exclude the net debt of 5 Billion you get to a value of around 3 Billion. There are around 500 Million shares in issue.
So you get to a value of around 6 Rands per share and this is a very high level calc but its extremely conservative.
Again this is just my opinion and I will top up at levels below 1 rand.


Remember this line Andi.....so at 1.2b ebitda and assets exceeding liabilities. Sale of remedica removing significant debt we still at r5-r6 a share. Depending on the business structure we would be cash pisitive by 2022 and dividends hopefully 2022.
Wonder if this is the storyline to institutional investors next week on the road show. May see an interim pump from demand.
Re look the valuation model factoring annual 20c dividend.
Your thoughts ???

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#56 Investment novice

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Posted 29 September 2020 - 07:01 PM

Andi waiting on your analysis and also comments on the statement by ceo that the financials does not represent the valuation in the accounting.
Will see speculators exit but may also see insitutional buyers take a position for their high risk funds.
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#57 Investment novice

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Posted 29 September 2020 - 03:17 PM

Yep, thats what happens. Should stabilize. Market wants more direction. I need to get through full presentation but picked up on ceo saying that ifrs's does not allow revaluation of assets and equity is not adequately represented.
Also share volune still low so don't think we seeing dumping...may just be speculators closing their positions to trade else where cutting losses. I am looking away....hope there is sensibility. Interesting also is the institutional holding and bbbee holding which means this company has lots of support.
May see some of the shares being offloaded being taken up as we did in q2 with a drive on the share pruce through volume. The directors and company also needs to purchase for management ltip so expect downward movement , leveling and upward trajectory. All the bad eggs are out and there is full transparency...not a r12 company but not a 75c company either
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#58 DeltaHedge

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Posted 29 September 2020 - 02:58 PM

Think they being evasive around disposal date...mod 2021 target gives sufficient time. We may see the engagement and sens sooner rather than later. I won't be surprised to see a sens within the next few months disclosing discussions with potential suitors. Remedica received significant attention this year.

 

share getting smashed eish


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#59 Investment novice

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Posted 29 September 2020 - 01:26 PM

Think they being evasive around disposal date...mod 2021 target gives sufficient time. We may see the engagement and sens sooner rather than later. I won't be surprised to see a sens within the next few months disclosing discussions with potential suitors. Remedica received significant attention this year.
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#60 Milo

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Posted 29 September 2020 - 01:20 PM

They are better prepared to sell Remedica. Selling Remedica is what creditors and shareholders' want. Hope there is news about a buyer soon. Would like to see share price at R2.80 before end of year.


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