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Ascendis Health Ltd. – JSE:ASC


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#41 Investment novice

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Posted 24 July 2020 - 01:49 PM

Volumes drying up. Can't seem to land an order... Afraid to place a buy at best
but may be the way to go.
Will try at 90c and see if takers.
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#42 Investment novice

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Posted 24 July 2020 - 11:40 AM

HI Andi. I was expecting sens by end of this month or mid August.
I looked back at covid update and re read the March update that covers all the main business lines so not sure we will expect a covid update.
I think the first update could be early August.. As by end July we would know what the free cash available is that should be swept across.

Hence should see this share.. Hover for a week two weeks and then see market insiders with company know how start to buy...


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#43 andi222

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Posted 24 July 2020 - 10:52 AM

Think full year financials are going to be a blast. Expect 1. 5 billion to be swept to lenders. They are pumping.
And the remainder debt to be refinanced at 0%

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IN when are you expecting a trading statement or a COVID update? I mean close to a month has now past after their year end.


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#44 Investment novice

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Posted 24 July 2020 - 10:44 AM

Think full year financials are going to be a blast. Expect 1. 5 billion to be swept to lenders. They are pumping.
And the remainder debt to be refinanced at 0%

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#45 andi222

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Posted 24 July 2020 - 10:37 AM

So lenders know that Ascendis profits are going to be good that is why they extended until end of 2021.

 

If they sell Remedica share price go up because company debt gone. If they don't sell Remedica share price go up because profits are good. So both scenarios are ok.

 

Yes agreed Milo, look at Intu properties, here Lenders have pulled the plug and the company will be liquidated as lenders do not see a possibility that Intu can repay the debt in their normal operations.

 

To be honest I think the best possible solution would be to IPO Remedica and keep a substantial portion of the business as they generate huge profits. Through the IPO they would generate enough money to repay a big amount of the loans and refinance the rest. This would clear all problems at once. Hope management is taking this option into consideration. 


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#46 Milo

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Posted 23 July 2020 - 10:11 PM

So lenders know that Ascendis profits are going to be good that is why they extended until end of 2021.

 

If they sell Remedica share price go up because company debt gone. If they don't sell Remedica share price go up because profits are good. So both scenarios are ok.


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#47 Investment novice

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Posted 23 July 2020 - 10:55 AM

Volumes drying up. I am going to try buy as many as I can get when available... Expecting this to be th best performing share IN SA this year when results published and first clean afs.

If you have not found a negative reasons... Jump on board now... The early gains spectacular..
Not to say you can't get on at r3 or r6 or r9...

Not an expert... I am an official pumper of this share......



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#48 Investment novice

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Posted 23 July 2020 - 06:49 AM

Think someone at ascend created covid 19?

Another reason to cheer. Including the partnership between ascendis and Israel.

Fenofibrate can 'downgrade' Covid-19 threat to common cold level: Researcher



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#49 Investment novice

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Posted 22 July 2020 - 11:53 AM

Thanks Andi. The risks are managed so to speak. Does the market require more comfort? Some further debt reduction following the full year results. Re financing debt with cheap European debt.. Sale now possible due to the revenue generating ability of remedica but then why would they sell if cost of debt close to zero.

Awaiting sens I gather to guide us further.
Company has both covid and non covid revenue..... And really hope that we can get debt reduced and debt refinanced,

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#50 andi222

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Posted 22 July 2020 - 10:25 AM

Hi IN,

 

so the following was worrisome for this share which negatively took down the share price:

 

- Huge debt load and if lenders pulled the plug the company would have entered business rescue proceedings. However now we know they have time to fix the balance sheet until 2021 due to debt extension

- Remedica sale was cancelled which caused the share price to drop from 3 rands to 1 rand within like 2 weeks. However now that they have time they can obtain a much higher price for this business which is producing huge profits. Also the money spend on getting the sale done is not totally lost as they now are looking for new potential buyers. Made no sense that the share price dropped by R2 as there was basically no impact on the ASC business

- The tangible NAV is negative - However if they can achieve a sales price of between 300 and 400 Million for Remedica there will be a huge profit.

- Margin calls - I think C2C has sold off most of its shares now so I don't see any margin calls anytime soon again.

- Scitec was purchased at a way ridiculous price. Nearly burned 200 Million € of shareholders money. But this business unit is gone now and won't provide further losses.

 

All these things have been cleared now, so I do believe there is great upside potential to this share. Again just my personal opinion.


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#51 Investment novice

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Posted 22 July 2020 - 10:12 AM

Tried to get in a large buy yesterday. Liquidity drying up. Seems like the volume is not available cheap.

Is there a cup and handle?

Have seen the chatter increase on various Google sites. Lots of eyes here and many convinced this share will go to the moon. Should this share be at R12?


Last question.... Am I delusional. Really not relying a pump or dump... But the numbers don't make sense. And the value currently may be due to debt but significant declines due to margin calls.

If there is anyone that can argue this is really a worthless share please can you guide us. Ingram many years ago was extremely bullish... What am I missing...


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#52 Investment novice

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Posted 21 July 2020 - 06:58 AM

Seems remedica and ascendis have stability of revenue and products out of covid alenvironment as well as now in boom in covid. Since covid is here to stay... And similar illnesses. Bodes well.

We should expect information today on interferon beta, remedica has a number of these products for use for multiple sclerosis. Another reason for excitement. Sure they could make this available through injection or other route inhalation...

Andi agree... Should see a sens out soon on trading update.. Hope the don't supper excitement.


Let's keep a look out.... Piling in cash becomes available



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#53 Investment novice

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Posted 20 July 2020 - 04:53 PM

Also can you do an adjusted PE... Based on current share price to projected earnings.
Then multiply by market multiple and add any discounts

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#54 Investment novice

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Posted 20 July 2020 - 03:43 PM

Andi can't recall your predictions on ebitda and nav

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#55 andi222

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Posted 20 July 2020 - 01:56 PM

Nope can come at any point in time if management is certain that profits are higher than 20% to corresponding prior period.

 

Annual results are due latest by end of September 2020. However I hope they will be released earlier. 

 

The share price is already starting to pump. Watch out for the next few weeks.


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#56 Investment novice

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Posted 20 July 2020 - 11:22 AM

There is significant time to get on board the real pump will be the day of the trading sens and the entire two weeks thereafter. I think we have time to get more shares for the next 6-8 weeks... Anyone know when the trading update is due?

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#57 andi222

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Posted 20 July 2020 - 09:44 AM

Chart wise this looks really good. Let's see where it can go. Watch out for that trading statement soon. 


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#58 Investment novice

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Posted 19 July 2020 - 07:40 AM

Check the nyse... High use health stocks outpacing tesla.

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#59 Investment novice

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Posted 18 July 2020 - 10:16 PM

Does this mean there was a financial transaction... And revenue banked


Remedica has successfully managed the import of 5 tons of chloroquine to Cyprus, facilitated by the government of Israel, which provided a military plane for the transportation of the substance from India.
The private initiative involves the Cypriot pharmaceutical company processing the chloroquine for subsequent transportation to Israel. In exchange, Israel will provide Cyprus with 50 ventilators.


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#60 Investment novice

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Posted 17 July 2020 - 04:29 PM

I think that covid has been extremely beneficial for this entity and will result in massive debt recoup.
However with the footprint and assets this company should do well in any environment. The low trading multiple is crazy. The share price is low due to to margin calls and lack of market knowldge or trust.
This will change with the June 2020 financials.

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