1645 replies to this topic

[sommerso]

My assumption is based on the following valuation.

 

Without the debt (today about 380 mil. €), what wolud be Ascendis market capitalization?

Based on yearly EBITDA (Yearly Ebitda shoud be about 90 mil €), we can assume a market cap of about 750 mil. € (about 8 times the EBITDA).

 

So if creditors will extinguish the debt, the recapitalization should attribuite them the 90% of the 'new' company (675 mil. €, the 90% of 750 mil. as market capitalization).

The old shareholders should obtain the remaining 10% of the 'new' company (75 mil. €, so about 2,5 ZAR considering current structure).

 

Let me know your views!

 

 

Out of curiousity, do we suspect the rerate from cents to R's would happen almost immediately after the announcement or will it be a progressive over time climb. 

[Tolly12]

My assumption is based on the following valuation.

 

Without the debt (today about 380 mil. €), what wolud be Ascendis market capitalization?

Based on yearly EBITDA (Yearly Ebitda shoud be about 90 mil €), we can assume a market cap of about 750 mil. € (about 8 times the EBITDA).

 

So if creditors will extinguish the debt, the recapitalization should attribuite them the 90% of the 'new' company (675 mil. €, the 90% of 750 mil. as market capitalization).

The old shareholders should obtain the remaining 10% of the 'new' company (75 mil. €, so about 2,5 ZAR considering current structure).

 

Let me know your views!

[Investment novice]

To me enter at this price seems a low risk decision.
Because I do not understand how Ascendis Management and creditors may try to obtain shareholders approval offering less value than current market cap. Now that Ascendis shares price is at her lower historical price.

Certainly agree share trading at risk. Could have even previously dropped to 20c or 30c but seems to have held the 50c level well and kept above 55c stable heading to 60c. For the week assumptions is 55c is a floor that may be tested...or we find a new floor in the week. Unpredictable...

Many are concerned that even cheap may result in money in the bin....
Options to sell before hell- or get in a proportion or wait for risk to reduce....
I am quite a believer in Mark Sardi..and have invested more since engaging him. He is really a respectible person- and working for shareholders as rightly so if he pulls r4 he is in for r12m. 40 to 55% ebitda growth with difficult times- is spectacular. And unfortunately headoffice xosts will reduce they in process. Then there is a building they selling r90m....

last year i invested in asc..last 4 months i doubled up but investing in Mark.

[Investment novice]

From the delays and extension all parties seemingly looking at fair and consensual to structure the deal which shareholders me accept or veto ending in business rescue. Noo one wants business rescue in 2 jurisdictions and shareholders are at the bottom of the barrel.
There has been concern on how all of this has played out and one day perhaps another rob rose book ..

7 business days for an outcome. For those risl averse investers may be an option to await sens and then get on board on day 1 pump...if marlet likes the sens the pump here will be like ppc dragged on for months to come.

Activists group and many institutions together are at 90% plus of the holding and if the sens meets approval for going concern and fair ..it is as good as done....and not sure why Mark and team will require so much time to xlose the deal. We can do it a week after the sens....

Many are waiting on the sidelines here as rightly so...this is a massive high risk lose it all scenario

[Tolly12]

To me enter at this price seems a low risk decision.
Because I do not understand how Ascendis Management and creditors may try to obtain shareholders approval offering less value than current market cap. Now that Ascendis shares price is at her lower historical price.

[Zanme]

Progress has been made. Happy that parties locked in negotiation. Suggests there is room for negotiation..parties have leverage and looking for a win win or fair and consensual.
How many days does jse provide to issue sens on deal finalisation....as this will be a very long sens

My last investment with the hope of a restructure turned out sour. It was Intu Plc. The Business rescue practitioners treat shareholders like nobody's they don't even respond to emails. They just highjacked the company and shareholders are just told to accept it. It's unfortunate that management doesn't always act in the best interest of shareholders. With Ascendis if they making the profits that they are making it shouldn't be impossible to find lenders to support it. I can't understand why must the company land up in this predicament. Paying 15 percent interest. I am sure that a good portion of this debt can be refinanced. What happened to selling businesses etc. I don't trust these guys or they are grossly incompetent. Management hasn't made any effort to decrease costs either. They turn to the traditional banks who will rape the company dry. Instead of making an effort to consult with alternative banks there are so many Eastern Banks operating in South Africa who won't charge an arm and a leg to do basic things like replace debt. Management makes these things complex they hire fancy debt consultants like Goldman Sachs etc who rape the company dry. Instead of sorting out basics cut costs replace debt pay down debt by cutting costs and continue with this discipline. Same thing with Steinhoff Consultants don't create value they destroy it. Mark has been pfaffing around for almost two years now. He must go and someone with sound acumen must come in and take proper action. Or else we will be left like I was with Intu with absolutely nothing.

[Investment novice]

An extension and forewarned about possible advice from sharechat

I miss Polly

[Investment novice]

Progress has been made. Happy that parties locked in negotiation. Suggests there is room for negotiation..parties have leverage and looking for a win win or fair and consensual.
How many days does jse provide to issue sens on deal finalisation....as this will be a very long sens

[sommerso]

An extension and forewarned about possible advice from sharechat

[Sleepwa123]

As anticipated...

 

Ascendis Health Limited
(Registration number 2008/005856/06)
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
Share code: ASC
ISIN: ZAE000185005
("Ascendis Health" or "the Company" or "the
Group")


MARKET UPDATE


With reference to the announcements published by the Company on SENS on 10 March 2021 and 26 April 2021
and using the terms defined therein, shareholders are advised that discussions with Blantyre and L1 Health are
continuing and progress is being made towards finalisation of the Group Recapitalisation. Accordingly, the
Forbearance Creditors have agreed to extend the Forbearance Period until the close of business on 11 May 2021.
A detailed announcement regarding the Group Recapitalisation will be published on SENS as soon as negotiations
are finalised and within the prescribed timeframes set out in the Listings Requirements of the JSE Limited.

The Company is aware that there has been considerable speculation regarding the Group Recapitalisation and the
potential consequences thereof. The Company would like to remind Shareholders that they should base their
investment decisions regarding Ascendis Health shares on announcements published by the Company itself and
not on information from other sources, which may not necessarily be accurate or based on a complete set of
facts.

[sommerso]

It's a unique situation so I don't think we can read too much into the timing of the SENS.

They have until midnight tonight to come to an agreement (unless extended) and then I don't think they need to announce it to the market immediately anyway.

So I wouldn't be surprised if we do not hear anything today. I could be wrong though.

 

 

Dankie Sleepwa... voice of reason! 

[Sleepwa123]

It's a unique situation so I don't think we can read too much into the timing of the SENS.

They have until midnight tonight to come to an agreement (unless extended) and then I don't think they need to announce it to the market immediately anyway.

So I wouldn't be surprised if we do not hear anything today. I could be wrong though.

[sommerso]

I have honestly spent zero time looking the chart
My first target (purely out of greed) is R2.10 and then R3.

Anyone with a proper TA - will be great
 

 

 

I'm thinking I'm liking @Dell's analysis more   We have the same targets though, mine is mostly based on need, similar to greed.. I'd be happy with R2, but R3 would be better and R4/R5 would be best... I had a look at the 3 year chart and There was a big drop from R12 to R4 and then R4 to cents..... hoping the deal (when) it comes through will push it to somewhere close to those levels. 

In a different post someone mentioned good news drops in the morning and bad news in the evening....   again.. .speculation and just balls of nervous energy posting here. 

If they extend however, this price probably will take a hit?
 

[LarryK]

I have honestly spent zero time looking the chart 😂
My first target (purely out of greed) is R2.10 and then R3.

Anyone with a proper TA - will be great

Out of pure impatience.... what is our best and worst case scenarios for the runs? We looking at staying at cents or perhaps crossing into rands?

Had a look at another investing site and the 1 Month Fibonacci pivots R3 lines are at 81c ..... at the top end. But don't think that takes "news" into account.

[Dell]

don't think we'll know until (if) deal announced...

 

Announcement will indicate what the "fair value" of the company is according to directors, L1/Blantyre and Rothschild...remember, difference between value and price...there WILL be a discount because shareholders are stuck, so with that shareholders will have to make peace - however, lender as well - no one wants a business rescue...lets hope the offer is "fairly" reasonable...

 

I still maintain my view (if one purely looks at EBITDA) that this stock is worth AT LEAST R 6...however, lots of factors for, and against higher, as well as lower offers... TIK TOK...

 

my 2 cents...

[sommerso]

Hey at least we crossed the 60c resistance! Might run up nicely if there's positive news
 

 

 

Out of pure impatience.... what is our best and worst case scenarios for the runs? We looking at staying at cents or perhaps crossing into rands? 

 

Had a look at another investing site and the 1 Month Fibonacci pivots R3 lines are at 81c ..... at the top end. But don't think that takes "news" into account. 

Edited by sommerso, 30 April 2021 - 07:41 AM.

[LarryK]

Hey at least we crossed the 60c resistance! Might run up nicely if there's positive news

🤞🏼

[sommerso]

Carpe diem folks!

 

 

Nice volume yesterday, might just be speculative trades hoping like us today is a good day. Going to be the longest Friday in the history of Friday's. 

[LarryK]

Carpe diem folks!

[Investment novice]

Friday is still some ways off ....... unless they drop an extended negotiations on us.......

Sens friday morning or friday afternoon...think its a do or die...