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Ascendis Health Ltd. – JSE:ASC


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#521 Daytrader01

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Posted 31 March 2021 - 07:57 AM

Results are out

 

https://www.moneyweb...-december-2020/


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#522 LarryK

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 11:43 AM

Looking forward to tomorrow!

Thinking about adding a little more in case it shoots up, but that 30c scenario sounds great as well
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#523 LarryK

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 10:38 AM

Looking forward to tomorrow!

Thinking about adding a little more in case it shoots up, but that 30c scenario sounds great as well
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#524 JR7800

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 10:07 AM

Sorry, Had the dates wrong. It is tomorrow at 10am right?


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#525 JR7800

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Posted 30 March 2021 - 10:05 AM

Presentation late?


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#526 Investment novice

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Posted 29 March 2021 - 12:38 PM

Where is my mind at...debt at r7.5b
We have 2 scenarios...

1. settling complete debt and exiting europe debt free. This leaves asc debt free and still revenue from non core divestment and ooerational cost reduction. Probable revaluatiin and special dividend 50c


2. Remain in europe. Non core divestment. Outstanding debt refinanced. Swapping the limited amount of assets for debt obligated



Think either of the two plausible. 2 allows us to hold equity and ebitda with rand hedge and debt to ebutda optimised. Can always at a leter stage sell remaining asset at premium. We lose control though.

Whats the blind sided scenario....sell all of europe and still have r1b in debt...okay so perhaps r500m from non core divestment....and current SA ebitda sufficient debt to ebitda and liquidity risk reduced...


All of these gives me above r3 scenario per share
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#527 Investment novice

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Posted 29 March 2021 - 11:18 AM

I am holding cash- at meeting...ceo may spook market with choice of wording or comfort market.
Debt more than r8.5 to r9b will be negative...less than r8b or r7.5b will be positive.

Hope he takes our advice through our direct engagements....


If the market spooked...may add more with price dipping to 30c...or 5c.....then i will target massive share purchase...or if market appeased...will try pickup more end of day..


Or you could buy close of business tomorrow....


Not certain we will get enough info to make a call. But if we get the debt- and the debt holding of blantyre. And some target valuatiin range for european assets this may be significant to give market and idea of the road ahead and may draw investors. .


We really hope Mark at least says this is a lender driven process but it is a consensual process working towards benefit for all stakeholders...

If he indicates this is a consensual process and the 3 comoanies supporting this including the use of jefferies report as a guide this will calm market feats and we may see renewed confidence..



At the moment we trading on a multiple of fear...rather than a multiple of future revenue....


Pls decide to buy based on your investment thesis.....
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#528 Investment novice

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Posted 29 March 2021 - 11:16 AM

I am holding cash- at meeting...ceo may spook market with choice of wording or comfort market.
Debt more than r8.5 to r9b will be negative...less than r8b or r7.5b will be positive.

Hope he takes our advice through our direct engagements....


If the market spooked...may add more with price dipping to 30c...or 5c.....then i will target massive share purchase...or if market appeased...will try pickup more end of day..


Or you could buy close of business tomorrow....


Not certain we will get enough info to make a call. But if we get the debt- and the debt holding of blantyre. And some target valuatiin range for european assets this may be significant to give market and idea of the road ahead and may draw investors. .


We really hope Mark at least says this is a lender driven process but it is a consensual process working towards benefit for all stakeholders...

If he indicates this is a consensual process and the 3 comoanies supporting this including the use of jefferies report as a guide this will calm market feats and we may see renewed confidence..



At the moment we trading on a multiple of fear...rather than a multiple of future revenue....


Pls decide to buy based on your investment thesis.....
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#529 LarryK

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Posted 27 March 2021 - 12:05 AM

IN I trust you buddy!

The question is should we add more????
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#530 Investment novice

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Posted 26 March 2021 - 11:43 AM

Damn wasn't expecting such a high loss. Wonder what they did here. Hopefully management wasn't manipulated by the lenders to already impair everything to scare off shareholders and to except a shitty deal.

Once I see the financials I will do a analysis. Will share a high level overview here.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app



I was shocked with the additional impairments. But bodes well for us future.
The restructuring costs i expected to be over r200m at about 15m euros...

Would this be a legitimate plan to dampen share price. I am still on the fence. I think its just accountant led
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#531 Sleepwa123

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Posted 26 March 2021 - 10:48 AM

I had similar thoughts. If I was them thats what I would be doing.

 

After financials published then come through with an offer to shareholders substantially above market value but significantly below fair value...We will still win in that scenario but not to the extent that we could.


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#532 andi222

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Posted 26 March 2021 - 10:22 AM

Damn wasn't expecting such a high loss. Wonder what they did here. Hopefully management wasn't manipulated by the lenders to already impair everything to scare off shareholders and to except a shitty deal.

Once I see the financials I will do a analysis. Will share a high level overview here.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app
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#533 Investment novice

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 03:52 PM

Any comments on the ASCENDIS HEALTH LIMITED – Trading statement for the six months ended 31 December 2020

https://www.moneyweb...-december-2020/

Are we all doomed?




Andi will comment as well. Do your numbers scenarious. 59% increase in ebitda....this is a spectacular business compared to a non covid period where surgical revenue is not reflected here.....


Debt max is r7.5 even if r8.5 fy....less non core of r500m ....we at r7.5b debt....the pik finnace costs are accounted already.....this business on the books undervalued as valuations from 2017 at r12b..........minus r8b.......r4b equity for us....come on these are thumb suck....end of day...sell all of europe or keep part....take risk out...company debt refinanced or no debt.....we left with a net positive company cleaned and pumping.....further head office costs still to be taken out.....sure a smaller company....but heos 2022 fy will be spectacular......and we will see share trade at 10x multiple...happy to wait till then for r10 share
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#534 David-89

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 03:27 PM

Any comments on the ASCENDIS HEALTH LIMITED – Trading statement for the six months ended 31 December 2020

https://www.moneyweb...-december-2020/

Are we all doomed?

Well I think we all knew what we were investing in was high risk. Let’s see what month end brings, personally I am not hopeful - the debt levels are just far too high to be managed and I don’t see Ascendis no matter what their operational performance is being able to trade their way out of this debt pile even if Blantyre and L1 do allow an extension period which clearly isn’t going to happen. Blantyre and L1 have made a great move here and they going to pick up some great assets for chips it’s just a pity I’m on the wrong end of this deal.

I will hold onto my shares, cross my fingers and clench as I’m already in a huge loss making position so what’s more loss at this point

Edited by David-89, 25 March 2021 - 03:29 PM.

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#535 David-89

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 03:26 PM

Any comments on the ASCENDIS HEALTH LIMITED – Trading statement for the six months ended 31 December 2020

https://www.moneyweb...-december-2020/

Are we all doomed?


Well I think we all knew what we were investing in was high risk. Let’s see what month end brings, personally I am not hopeful - the debt levels are just far too high to be managed and I don’t see Ascendis no matter what their operational performance is being able to trade their way out of this debt pile even if Blantyre and L1 do allow an extension period which clearly isn’t going to happen. Blantyre and L1 have made a great move here and they going to pick up some great assets for chips it’s just a pity I’m on the wrong end of this deal.
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#536 JR7800

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Posted 25 March 2021 - 03:22 PM

Any comments on the ASCENDIS HEALTH LIMITED – Trading statement for the six months ended 31 December 2020

 

https://www.moneyweb...-december-2020/

 

Are we all doomed?


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#537 Investment novice

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Posted 19 March 2021 - 03:42 PM

Activist group meets ifc ....call was at 3pm sa time..9am washington dc time


We had a very productive meeting with IFC. We went through our position statement. They were pkeased to undertsand our objectives. The market is aware of us.......1. They acknowldged asc activists group .2. They are aware of the transaction and running scenarios. 3. We requested their oversight and deal scrutiny....4. We should expect further communucation from them in time. 5. We both acknowledged the limitation with info xurrently.
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#538 Investment novice

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Posted 19 March 2021 - 08:53 AM

American Medical Association Approves Hydroxychloroquine
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#539 Investment novice

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 05:31 PM

IN, could you possibly copy and paste article into on here?

Thank you





Sorry Larry have some of the images from discord. Not sure how to get link or paste If anyone can assist.
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#540 LarryK

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Posted 17 March 2021 - 12:44 AM

IN, could you possibly copy and paste article into on here?

Thank you

Anthony clarks paper out. He suspects profitbwarning duebto high debt and high finance costs. But sees share price upside on deal conclusion
Very interesting....


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