1645 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

Reminds me of steinhoff....falls and jumps.....some9ne selling and someone buying....
Some big trades coming through....how can we get access to real time shareholder chamges in positions......

[Sleepwa123]

Share is being hammered...Holding on so hoping the value comes through in time.

 

 

[Investment novice]

Agree with your points. It wipes 75% of debt leaves shareholders with strong european assets and asc local assets and debt easily refinanced.
Deal can be sealed before h2. H1 2022 we have first dividend payment

[Tom]

IPO and rights issue should be considered, as it will help Ascendis position in the negotiations.

[Tom]

Blantyre and L1 hold about 5.1 billion rands of credit against Ascendis, so giving them 49% of the equities of Remedica (which is their main target of why they bought the credit) should be a fair deal, even though Remediica might be evaluated for actually more.

[Investment novice]

Harry smith at 34 min...interview used andis approximations.
Question is how can you buy r12b equity with r5b debt.

There are allegations that board is conflicted. Not certain of evidence

As an aside
There is also some allegations that blantyre were involved as a creditor and may have been behind viceroys attack on ascendis that provoked the first slide in the share that triggered c2c margin calls and liquidity crisis....

Similar to what was done with Zed spanish telecoms.

There is a request from the activists group for transparency on the process and the valuations and the negotiations.

[Shi]

Listen here ... great interview ... https://twitter.com/...253396255604736

[Investment novice]

Dear all pls join discord and add your shares to the tally. We are upto 8% - and have some really good support including ex ceo. Institutions joining in as well. Aiming to be at least at 25% by today

[Investment novice]

https://discord.gg/FD2vjET9Zb

Andi tom all...pls join here if you interested ..activist is also here...trying to get one platform going for sharehomder discussion...we also getting feedback here from engagements from institutional investors.....

[Tom]

L1 Health is a subsidiary of LetterOne, the investment vehicle owned by Russian tycoon Mikhail Fridman, it targets investments in the global healthcare sector.

 

Blantyre partners with “good businesses with temporary financial challenges”.

 

Blantyre together with L1 hold about ( 5.1 billion rands) of the credit on Ascendis, however they bought it at less that, because the previous lenders off loaded it at discount.

 

In 2020, Sardis described Ascendis as “a collection of largely good businesses with a bad balance sheet”.

 

Shareholders should refuse the threat of liquidation should they vote against a deal that will have them end up with nothing, or even not a fair deal, while giving away highly valuable business units.

Edited by Tom, 11 March 2021 - 01:48 PM.

[Investment novice]

I looked at the numbers again and did a high level review on the major subsidiary's and on the total group.

I'm basing my numbers on the average of the market update released in February.

So on group level an EBITDA of around 800 Million for half the year was achieved. Annualising it we will be at around 1.5 to 1.6 billion.

Now applying a very conservative EBITDA found here: https://www.equidam....rbc-industries/ for pharma we get a multiple of 14.5 on average.

This would lead to a valuation of the group to 1.5 Billion times 14.5 market average = 22.5 Billion.
Now let's say because the group is struggling due to its debt levels we apply a 50% discount on the multiple industry average.
Even then, we get to a value of 1.5 billion times 7.25= 11 Billion. Current market cap is at 200 Million. Let that sink in.

So now let's talk about a sustainable debt level. This is normally 3 times the EBITDA. So ASC would be able to service debt levels of 4 to 5 Billion rands. Given they keep control of the operating subsidiary's.

So net debt lies at 7 Billion rands. This would mean they only need to reduce debt by around 3 Billion.

How could a possible offer then look like? So the lenders said they want a portion of the operating subsidiary's. Which in my opinion is the best option for current shareholders.
Now let's look at Remedica itself. Half year EBITDA was at 22 Million euros. For the full year we can expect a 44 Million euro.
This in rands would be 44x18= 800 Million.
Remedica has little debt, huge growth potential so an EBITDA multiple of 14.5 would at minimum apply here.
800 times 14.5 is around 10 to 12 Billion. Now again applying a discount anything below a 8 Billion valuation would be a joke given current pharma valuations worldwide.

So guys let those numbers sink in. We as shareholders should not accept any deal which would give us nothing at the end.

ASC is not in a loss making position. They have VERY CASH STRONG generating units. They will thus be able to get high valuations.

Again I'm topping up as we speak.

Also this is just my opinion and high level review on the numbers. But run the numbers yourself and you guys will be surprised.

Absolutely...and thanks Andi and everyone placing numbers in tue argument....seems most posts on forums are scare mongerring without any commutment to modelling. There is anabsolute lack of understanding that the corporate world has eveolved and these transactions happen regularly and there is a process and a guide .......we must be firm in our commitment and not be swayed even by unqualified comments by brown and others...unless motivated...

[andi222]

Fully Agree Tom. We as shareholders should stand together here.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[andi222]

I looked at the numbers again and did a high level review on the major subsidiary's and on the total group.

I'm basing my numbers on the average of the market update released in February.

So on group level an EBITDA of around 800 Million for half the year was achieved. Annualising it we will be at around 1.5 to 1.6 billion.

Now applying a very conservative EBITDA found here: https://www.equidam....rbc-industries/ for pharma we get a multiple of 14.5 on average.

This would lead to a valuation of the group to 1.5 Billion times 14.5 market average = 22.5 Billion.
Now let's say because the group is struggling due to its debt levels we apply a 50% discount on the multiple industry average.
Even then, we get to a value of 1.5 billion times 7.25= 11 Billion. Current market cap is at 200 Million. Let that sink in.

So now let's talk about a sustainable debt level. This is normally 3 times the EBITDA. So ASC would be able to service debt levels of 4 to 5 Billion rands. Given they keep control of the operating subsidiary's.

So net debt lies at 7 Billion rands. This would mean they only need to reduce debt by around 3 Billion.

How could a possible offer then look like? So the lenders said they want a portion of the operating subsidiary's. Which in my opinion is the best option for current shareholders.
Now let's look at Remedica itself. Half year EBITDA was at 22 Million euros. For the full year we can expect a 44 Million euro.
This in rands would be 44x18= 800 Million.
Remedica has little debt, huge growth potential so an EBITDA multiple of 14.5 would at minimum apply here.
800 times 14.5 is around 10 to 12 Billion. Now again applying a discount anything below a 8 Billion valuation would be a joke given current pharma valuations worldwide.

So guys let those numbers sink in. We as shareholders should not accept any deal which would give us nothing at the end.

ASC is not in a loss making position. They have VERY CASH STRONG generating units. They will thus be able to get high valuations.

Again I'm topping up as we speak.

Also this is just my opinion and high level review on the numbers. But run the numbers yourself and you guys will be surprised.

[Investment novice]

On the other chat group....we have a colleague speaking to an insitutional investor...

[David-89]

So just got this


Rothchild is doing the valuation and it will be more or less Audited by PSG South Africa so we will have 2 opinions.



So blantyre debt wont be sufficient to take all our assets....we will have a fair value engagement and shareholders are protected...

Hi IN, where did you get this information?

[Investment novice]

So just got this


Rothchild is doing the valuation and it will be more or less Audited by PSG South Africa so we will have 2 opinions.



So blantyre debt wont be sufficient to take all our assets....we will have a fair value engagement and shareholders are protected...

[DeltaHedge]

Very sad high level superficial podcast by simon brown today....


Thanks for this.....dissappointing that the chap is so vague and has again not spoken to the fact ....h1 does not holdh r7b of debt....75% of probably r6n only.....they indicated they wanted to recapitalise asc and assist refinance the outstanding debt of 25%.....so what can they buy with the 75%?.....be good if these analysts do their numbers.......and whats left for shareholders....some shoddy assets and maybe small holding in remedica......cool....what does that mean....means more than just 60c....the value left for us will be considerable...h1blantyre cant swoop in woth r4.5b debt and steal r12b assets.......its a pity these clever people shooting from the hip.........

They can take my shares at R1.5

[Investment novice]

Very sad high level superficial podcast by simon brown today....


Thanks for this.....dissappointing that the chap is so vague and has again not spoken to the fact ....h1 does not holdh r7b of debt....75% of probably r6n only.....they indicated they wanted to recapitalise asc and assist refinance the outstanding debt of 25%.....so what can they buy with the 75%?.....be good if these analysts do their numbers.......and whats left for shareholders....some shoddy assets and maybe small holding in remedica......cool....what does that mean....means more than just 60c....the value left for us will be considerable...h1blantyre cant swoop in woth r4.5b debt and steal r12b assets.......its a pity these clever people shooting from the hip.........

[Investment novice]

Even r9billion fine...

[SB45]

Any offer that will have a formula that values Ascendis for less than 12 billion rands will mean that the share holders will end up with nothing, so in that case the share holders must refuse the offer, and let the creditors approach the court for liquidation so they can also end up with nothing... or Ascendis oppose that and apply for business rescue which will have the court order the creditors to reschedule their debt, and then they always have the option to sell their debt at huge discount... or wait for their nothing after liquidation.

(Remedica shouldn't go for less than 6 or 7 billion).

Tom, we need to send you to the negotiation