1645 replies to this topic

[Tom]

Any offer that will have a formula that values Ascendis for less than 12 billion rands will mean that the share holders will end up with nothing, so in that case the share holders must refuse the offer, and let the creditors approach the court for liquidation so they can also end up with nothing... or Ascendis oppose that and apply for business rescue which will have the court order the creditors to reschedule their debt, and then they always have the option to sell their debt at huge discount... or wait for their nothing after liquidation.

(Remedica shouldn't go for less than 6 or 7 billion).

Edited by Tom, 10 March 2021 - 06:01 PM.

[SB45]

Agreed they have way more to loose.

Just saying 200 Mill Market cap vs 7 Billion loans.

We are the ones who can vote for any proposals.

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Andi, my take is these guys are in business to make money, so they also don't want to lose as you have explained before. We might not get the full value of ASC, but I do not think it will be an insulting number at the end. Unless egos get in the way.

[SB45]

I have also decided to top up a bit more. So managed to get more at 53cents.

Thats what I'm talking about, I added as well, Novice did say we will 50c I will see if it dips I buy again tomorrow. 

[andi222]

Agreed they have way more to loose.

Just saying 200 Mill Market cap vs 7 Billion loans.

We are the ones who can vote for any proposals.

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[AMG76]

I have also decided to top up a bit more. So managed to get more at 53cents.

[Investment novice]

A fair value for Ascendis assets is about 13 Billion rands, so the share holders must not accept any offer that values them to less than 12 Billion rands.
A fair value for Remedica is about 7 Billion rands, so the share holders must not accept any offer that values it to less than 6 Billion rands.

Hi Tom...absolutely and thank you for committing numbers.....lots of tweets and posts with little facts .....debt they hold ..max r4.5 to r5b.....how would they justify in court that they take all assets of a functional entity at less than a standatd valuation....evem if we went into business rescue courts will rule on the valuation and creditors know this...they have more to lose or less to gain being hostile and agressive...they will be forcefull to enhance their negotiation base...either there is a debt equity swap or they make an offer to shareholders....or do both...

[Tom]

Most of the times during liquidation and because of the complicated and lengthy processes and fee structures, eventually ZERO money or very little money will be left for the creditors, so if Blantyre and L1 offer a dodgy price for Remedica or any of Ascendis assets, and threaten the share holders of liquidation, then let us go for liquidation as they have much more to lose, as they will probably be left empty handed and their credit money evaporated and gone.

Edited by Tom, 10 March 2021 - 04:34 PM.

[Tom]

A fair value for Ascendis assets is about 13 Billion rands, so the share holders must not accept any offer that values them to less than 12 Billion rands.

A fair value for Remedica is about 7 Billion rands, so the share holders must not accept any offer that values it to less than 6 Billion rands.

Edited by Tom, 10 March 2021 - 04:12 PM.

[Investment novice]

Also - just as with steinhof...we see poor journalism...
Asc to give up profitable business.....yah? Give up or trade...
If we learned anything...vasbyt

[Investment novice]

Only 40k odd shares were traded at those lower levels, maybe it needed that little push into oversold territory in order to get things rolling.

Agree with Andi and others...dont be swayed or frayed by the share price. Buy the dips if you believe the story..

Make up your own mind.....


All parties will sign for a win win....this deal isnalmost penned. Thr sens indicated whats on offer...meaning the discussions and open positions already played. We need the h1 results for valuation amd the deal will be finalised....the creditors are holding at a max 200m usd worth of debt......that is maybe 50% the value of the european assets on a min 6x multiple valuation...or even maybe 50% of remedica.......they want the upside.....

[andi222]

Guys dont panic.

Think about it. Who will loose bigger here if ASC would be liquidated?

Shareholder can loose a maximum of 200 Million rands.

The lenders can loose all their investments of 7 Billion.

If a liquidation would happen fund's and proceeds of liquidation sales would be frozen for atleast 3 to 5 years until the lenders would see any money. They would definitely not see the full 7 Billion.

So if they give us as shareholders a crappy deal we should just vote against it and they would risk to loose 7 Billion.

Obviously we would also loose all our money but they would loose far more.

Let's see what they will propose.

I'm personally topping up as we speak. The operating businesses are all worth more then the current debt for sure.

Against just my opinion.

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[Tom]

The share holders shouldn't feel that they have run out of options, as rights offer or business rescue or other options are still on the table.

 

Blantyre and L1 have made their interest in possessing Remedica and other core assets known, but instead of buying them directly, they opted for buying more than 75% of the debt of Ascendis, and then force Ascendis not to sell to others, and negotiate an equity for debt swap, which they think can be more cost effective for them, as they're putting pressure on the management and the company.

 

The share holders should fight fro their equity, and if Blantyre and L1 wants to use a cliff edge policy, then let it be.

It's either a good deal, or we all go to the cliff edge ... and let us see who will fall and who won't.

Edited by Tom, 10 March 2021 - 03:11 PM.

[Tom]

https://www.business...t-with-lenders/

 

"Ascendis, which has businesses in the consumer health, pharmaceutical and animal health categories, has recently caught the attention of private equity groups interested in its assets and who have snapped up most of its debt vehicle"

[DeltaHedge]

Only 40k odd shares were traded at those lower levels, maybe it needed that little push into oversold territory in order to get things rolling.

It’s a bit scary at the moment must say

[Leadingedge]

Only 40k odd shares were traded at those lower levels, maybe it needed that little push into oversold territory in order to get things rolling.

[Leadingedge]

Not nice to see it hit my low alert, I didn't think we would see 52c again...let alone 48c and a volatility auction! 

 

She has gone far into oversold now, a time to be worried or a time to top up?

Edited by Leadingedge, 10 March 2021 - 01:29 PM.

[DeltaHedge]

Nice they are not looking for a recapitalization on group level. They rather plan to give the lenders parts of the operating assets. Which will help us current shareholders. I just hope the fair values will be reasonable.

Remember guys we need to approve any deals. And if we don't approve we will run into liquidation and everyone will loose out including the lenders.

So end of the day I think everyone wants ASC to continue for the future.



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How can you see the mechanics working here ? I.e. if they take part of the operating assets does this mean the assets get a valuation and then they have to find equity holders at group level to do a swap with ? Surely there can still be dilution in a D/E swap?

[DeltaHedge]

What is Clarkson saying here


https://twitter.com/...7160986626?s=21

[DeltaHedge]

Super surprised the share price hasn’t at least reacted more positively today. Is this another gift given by the market or is something up

[Tom]

https://www.dailymav...nd-via-twitter/

 

"Ascendis CEO Mark Sardi told Business Maverick that the preferred outcome would be for the current shareholders to have the option to participate in any recapitalisation, rights issue or otherwise"