1645 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

Anthony clarks paper out. He suspects profitbwarning duebto high debt and high finance costs. But sees share price upside on deal conclusion
Very interesting....

[Investment novice]

@Investment Novice, did Mr Sardi mention anything about the debt that Blantyre/Letter1 doesn't own? What shape will this take after the deal? Is there any intention from the lender to cash in or what?

Further information will be provided on 31 March. Everything depends on the valuation and the scenarios that play out. From the sens if there is debt ...refinance at better rates....market

[Shi]

@Investment Novice, did Mr Sardi mention anything about the debt that Blantyre/Letter1 doesn't own? What shape will this take after the deal? Is there any intention from the lender to cash in or what?

[Investment novice]

Hey.....snh....qualify our posts....buy based on your investment strategy ....these are high risks...intention is to make money.....pray for everyone...

Snh was a time based play....and this seems similar....

Many here we evaluate see potential and then buy....somethings dont go our way like this flipping curveball lender led crap we having to now not only post but get sleeves rolled up for....

[LarryK]

Hey IN I bought R50k worth of shares in asc because of your comments on snh so no pressure buddy 😂

[AMG76]

Thanks again for all the work and effort going i to behind the scenes activities

[Investment novice]

Just to echo...current share price due to dumping in the market- concerns of liquadation not meeting april 30 target and no info around deal structure..


Following the meeting....we believe the parties to be consensual to close the transaction. Letterone already got debt at a discount. They wont screw shareholders. With our market cap at r250m we have little to lose to stall the process and end up in business rescue....


So consensual process and we have the april fear nullified.

Work through andis posts last week...residual value looks great...

I hope we share in the european company as they very likely to list and we will have dual listing....long term....

Debt is a kak number and finance xosts will wipe out ebidta according to anthony clark...so a deal to reduce debt and refinance at reasonable levels is more appropriate....

Futire isnless bleak...

And there is meat on the bones as per finance ghost

[Investment novice]

Dear Ascendis Investors

We recently held a meeting CEO Mark Sardi.

Please see below the hi-level points following the meeting With CEO Mark Sardi 14/03/2021.


Disclaimer- minority shareholders have reached out to the CEO to get a better understanding of the journey the ceo and the board are undertaking to resolve the liquidity challenge at Ascendis. The discussion was focused around seeking clarity and a better understanding of the contents of the SENS and positioning to the CEO our willingness to support Ascendis. We were at all times cognizant of the CEOs position and the limitation of the information that could be shared which could be market sensitive. we utilised the time as well to convey to the CEO concerns raised by our members in the various forums and the importance of transparency in detailing the process and specifically reports and valuations. The minutes below represent the discussion and were NOT shared with Mark for confirmation as a true and adequate reflection of the meeting AS WE WAS TRAVELLING AT THE TIME OF POSTING. Harry Smit chaired the meeting supported by two shareholders (Ascendis activitis twitter handle; and the other a Health market activist). The meetings participants disclose that they are holders of Asc shares at the time of the meeting.


Minutes

1. We had a very positive meeting and talked through the journey required for this transaction.
1.1 We requested Mark to detail this as well in the 31 March presentation
1.2 Mark the Board are preparing the proposal for the discussions with LetterOne and Blantyre. There are 2 scenarios one for Ascendis and the shareholders to remain involved in the subsidiaries or 2 to exit and hold only South African assets debt free potentially. The team are still looking at the valuations and there is still work to be done Some information will come through on 31 March the rest by April 30
1.3 The stakeholders are working towards a consensual process preventing a stalemate and then having to go into Business rescue proceedings in SA and Europe
1.4 PSG and Rothchild's are involved in the valuation process and Rotshcilds have in-depth understanding of the processes and legalities in SA and globally.
1.5 we informed Mark that shareholders that we represent today are concerned about the lack of information in the market to better understand what is transpiring.


2. Ascendis recognizes the involvement and support of the Activists group and will engage with us regularly and as part of the roadshow.
2.1 Ascendis will offer the activist group secretarial support to formalize the share pledges into proxies where required
2.2. we are requested to collate questions we believe should be addressed for the 31 March presentation


3. Ascendis financial situation- information available already
3.2. Ascendis is operationally sound and the trading update and increase in top line revenue and ebitda is noteworthy
3.3 The impact of the debt , which increases due to the pic clause in the agreement, and finance is not sustainable and erodes shareholder value . This has always been the focus.
3.4 divestments of non core businesses would go towards paying of debt


end of minutes.

OUR PERCEPTION OF THE MEETING

1. We as shareholders should note that our involvement is critical and we need to consolidate the retailers to ensure the vote is concluded and represents our best interest
2. We need to continue increasing pressure; focus and attention on the transaction with media support to ensure the transaction is consensual and that shareholders are not compromised
3. We appreciate that the CEO has recognized our group and will engage with us on the road show.
4. We have an important role to support the board and CEO to reach a conclusion and a decision that increases our value and reduces risk and debt
5. we require institutional investors to continue to support the course and reach out to us to formalize our grouping and increase our voice. we will reach out to the institutional investors as well to consolidate and formalize an interim shareholder committee

Kind regards
The Ascendis Activist Investors Team

[Shi]

https://thefinancegh...scendis-health/

[Tom]

What worries me is that they come back with a deal like: Exchanging equity for debt injection (extra debt), any deal like that should be refused, and if a penalty is to be imposed should the share holders refuse, then management should be voted out and the whole deal should be nullified and no penalty paid to the creditors.

 

Also Blantyre and L1 bought the 5.1 billion debt at discount, which means the market value of the debt they have is less than 5.1 billions, and so any deal should be looking at the actual price they paid, and give them a value equal to that.

 

Ant threat of liquidation should be challenged, especially that the creditors will be losing much more than the share holders, and company should apply for business rescue.

 

It's either all stake holders get a good deal (especially the share holders), or let there be no deal at all with sharky creditors.

Edited by Tom, 13 March 2021 - 06:35 PM.

[Investment novice]

There is a team formed in discord...engaging sardi tomorrow . Dont expect he can say much...but certainly can listen. Harry is the designate media person and we have shared some roles responsibilities.
There is a media campaign planned with a strict message.
We want global and local attnetion on this deal and oversight. The sens by blantyre says clearly they donot believe sale of remedica is for ascendis and all stakeholder benefot and their intervention should hence privode for a better outcome. We want the world to keep an eye on whether they will be truw to their word as angels saving the day or whether its a hostile takeover and they screwed a company and shateholders.....if we at war there will be reputational damage if parties are playing for asc and stakeholder sucess and the agressive time lines are for asc benefit...well we all drink green beer....
Shareholder are coming together and we calling on SA and the qorld to help us save an SA company and ensure a fiar transaction ensues....and not abusive due to a liquidity noose ...created by the saviour themselves under the guide of blocking a sale that would free the debtor

[Shi]

Anybody got a list of what is still for sale and how much they can bring in?

 

That interview Harry Smit was a real eye opener. It did make me think of whether or not Blantyre/L1 could force a deal by saying that if you don't agree, then we back to the loan and you pay 5% (about R250m for them) per annum and no sales of certain assets. This would be bad for ASC. They are sharks and want to go for the kill. They also don't strike me as the party who's going to take stakes in something, they want the whole pie. 

[DeltaHedge]

Hi all....lots of work happenning in the background to create media noise around deal. Also engaging govenrnace and oversight bodies to oversee the transaction........

To andis point and dell and others.....we need a fair transaction....which should be step 1.

Fair amount of debt for fair equity. We can also do this textbook.

The company sens has been poor. The sfa is not available - the ttue debt quantum is not available. The quantum of penalty interest is not available. The valuation methodology is not available.

These information blocks should be disclosed.

Sure there are elements to the deal and negotiations that are market sensitive....

We going to communicate this to mark tomorrow.

And we hoping in time shareholders are not shafted if hypothetically we have a conflicted board or other forces at play...governance oversight will ensure this deal is scrutinised.

Really ...we need the numbers.....blantyre should only to Andis points get 49% of remedica. If they want the full. They must settle the remainder in cash....prefer we keep a stake...


Not sure why all analysts paint this as if blantyre takes all and leaves shareholders with hot coal in their hands....

Asc can hold debt as all companies do....

Maybe we dont have the full picture, if buying at this price with the potential deal ahead is such great risk/reward then why dont management buy in unless they are prevented from doing so ? 

[Investment novice]

Hi all....lots of work happenning in the background to create media noise around deal. Also engaging govenrnace and oversight bodies to oversee the transaction........

To andis point and dell and others.....we need a fair transaction....which should be step 1.

Fair amount of debt for fair equity. We can also do this textbook.

The company sens has been poor. The sfa is not available - the ttue debt quantum is not available. The quantum of penalty interest is not available. The valuation methodology is not available.

These information blocks should be disclosed.

Sure there are elements to the deal and negotiations that are market sensitive....

We going to communicate this to mark tomorrow.

And we hoping in time shareholders are not shafted if hypothetically we have a conflicted board or other forces at play...governance oversight will ensure this deal is scrutinised.

Really ...we need the numbers.....blantyre should only to Andis points get 49% of remedica. If they want the full. They must settle the remainder in cash....prefer we keep a stake...


Not sure why all analysts paint this as if blantyre takes all and leaves shareholders with hot coal in their hands....

Asc can hold debt as all companies do....

[Dell]

" So i'm NOT saying they'll do that, but maybe they'll be more aggresive than 3x EBITDA..."

 

typo...

 

[Dell]

Andi - agreed here...

 

I'm pretty sure it will be option 1...

 

if you read the sens, they actually indicate...

 

To this end, the Company is
engaging with Blantyre and L1 Health. It is currently envisaged that the Group Recapitalisation will be
implemented by way of the discharge of outstanding debt in exchange for interests in the Company’s operating
subsidiaries, save for those subsidiaries already highlighted as being non-core and/or the subject of disposal
discussions.

 

Two other thoughts on my side...

 

1. Debt might currently be less than R 7 billion...so either smaller chunk of subsidiaries, or they will kill the debt further.

 

Here i'm going with the latter... if Remedica would have been sold (which was Sardi's plan) all debt would have been wiped.  So i'm saying

they'll do that, but maybe they'll be more aggresive than 3x EBITDA...

 

2. Not sure if L1/Blatyre want management control of these subsidiaries (consolidate/not).  Given that they are an investment group,

they'll probably be happy to equity account...don't know however...but your 49% might be accurate...i'm also thinking they might look at

an interest in Remedica as well as Pharmalider...

 

We're in a solid position, i'm not losing any sleep over this one...indicitive terms would already have been indicated, and negotiated, the april

timeline is probably to finalise and audit the valuation...

 

thanks for thoughts, once again, as we all say - personal opinion...

[andi222]

Guys let's think of the options we have and what value we should settle.

So first of all to make things clear we do NOT need to settle the full 7 Billion Rands debt. A healthy company normally trades at 3xEBITDA. So let's say a sustainable debt level for ASC must be between 3 and 4 billion rands. So we only need to repay around 4 Billion rands at a maximum!!!

Now what options do I think would make most sense:
1- Debt for equity swap. This will only make sense if we get the real value of the operating businesses and also we do not want a debt to equity swap at group level given current depressed share price on group level.
2- IPO of the European assets. ASC should still hold control however given the high growth rate and current market conditions we would obtain a very decent price for these businesses.
3-Find other banks/institutions who will provide pride financing so we can repay Blantyre/L1 without going into liquidation.

Most likely we will end up with scenario one above.

So let's look at what we as shareholders should consider as real value?
Clearly Blantyre and L1 are looking at the European assets. So let's have a look at Remedica. Full year EBITDA will most likely hit 800 Million rands. Now applying the average EBITDA multiple of 14.5 we get to 11.6 Billion. We shouldnt apply a big discount here as the company is growing/expanding in Europe as well as highly cash generative. But let's say due to ASC current situation we would apply a 30% discount. That would value Remedica atleast at a minimum at 8 Billion Rands.

So a good deal would give Blantyre 49% of Remedica and we would settle around 4 Billion debt with it.

This would be a win win for everyone. Blantyre would get a very strong asset as well as getting the full value of the debt returned which they have bought at a discount and ASC can continue trading with a great future.

Again just my personal opinion and applying basic business knowledge on the scenario. No recommendation to trade in this share.

We shouldn't let then push us into a shitry deal. There is some heavy value in this company.

[Tom]

I hope the management won't commit to any deal before a vote from the share holders, as they might put in the deal a penalty should the share holders reject, which will put pressure on the share holders to approve.

Edited by Tom, 12 March 2021 - 02:49 PM.

[JR7800]

Yes,

I am still buying.

 

Everyone said I was crazy to buy Kumba at R32 but I made some good money.

Everyone said I was crazy to buy Steinhoff at 0.80c I made some good money.

Everyone said I was crazy to buy Sasol at R28 but I made some good money.

 

I know some day I will get it wrong it wrong but for now I believe ASC will not be the one. Bought at average 0.70c and will sell out half at R3 plus and keep the other half for higher.

 

Maybe I will be wrong or right but I cannot see how this company can be worth nothing. My very little 2c worth....

 

[LarryK]

Anyone else still buying?

My new investment approach is to buy the fear baby!