1645 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

Can anyone see what percentage of shares has been shorted...

[Investment novice]

Previously 800k shares trded ...therearebaout..since dec seeing yhe increased volumes..still up this morning...seems like exit still on the cards for pic..but any shares availaing is getting mopped up...hope this ends and we can see some upward movement...perhaps its just impatience

[Investment novice]

Previously 800k shares trded ...therearebaout..since dec seeing yhe increased volumes..still up this morning...seems like exit still on the cards for pic..but any shares availaing is getting mopped up...hope this ends and we can see some upward movement...perhaps its just imoatience

[Investment novice]

Reading through all the media posts and writeups on h1 blantyre capital..we know very little of theor true intentions..but 1 thing...opportunists that targetvdistressed entities. Flip them and make money. As shareholders we already holding a devalued share....

As shareholders we have little to lose...enjoy thw ride...even if we give off 50 or 60% of the company......the 40% will still be worth a lot more than it is now.......have agreat evening..and really looking forward to sens the coming weeks and end march for the updates amd potemtially disclosures......sleep tight..

[andi222]

Ok as per the List on Twitter these two companies are holding 28 Million shares. I doubt that PIC will sell all shares.

 

Now shares traded from 29th to 4 Feb amounted to roughly 25 Million.

 

So my guess is that the big dump will soon dry up in the following days to come. 

 

But lets see that's just my best guess.

[Investment novice]

With Eoh..after this happened the sahre found easy momentum....someone is getting fat off this ...i dont mind i upped my shareholding with pic dumps...
Take advantage....they both still holding shares...perhaps they dumoed an bought in personal capacity .....jse hopeless..and never reports investigations into these matters..

[Shi]

I hate it when companies release these kinda SENS as you don't get context of how many shares was sold (and timeframe) because different sources often have different shareholder figures. 

 

Not sure where they got there numbers from, but it is quite up to date (29 Jan 21) https://twitter.com/...332983221424131

[Shi]

I hate it when companies release these kinda SENS as you don't get context of how many shares was sold (and timeframe) because different sources often have different shareholder figures. 

Edited by Shi, 04 February 2021 - 04:23 PM.

[DeltaHedge]

I do not understand how PIC is managing their funds. I mean seriously they are just burning money of pensioners. Just look at EOH. They have sold out basically at the lowest level of the shares price. 

 

Now they are doing the same with ASC. Like what is their strategy?

 

Buy high ,sell low

[Investment novice]

This was spot on Andi...i think its share manipulation for friends to buy...hopefully this means volumes dry up and we see price stability.
And uptrend...
Saw the same with eoh...and someone always mopped up....investigation required

[andi222]

Today we got the SENS: PIC and MIC are offloading. They are keeping the price down.

 

I do not understand how PIC is managing their funds. I mean seriously they are just burning money of pensioners. Just look at EOH. They have sold out basically at the lowest level of the shares price. 

 

Now they are doing the same with ASC. Like what is their strategy?

[andi222]

For sure we need to get a SENS soon on who is pushing the price down. The last 14 trading days including today there where more then 50 Million shares traded. Issued share capital is at 490 Million.

 

That's more then 10% traded. Lets say half of this was due to people selling and buying. Still 5% was breached today. So I'm expecting a SENS soon who is dumping. 

 

Who are our biggest shareholders:

13% - International Finance corp. Doubt they are selling as they have just recently bought more

7%- Mergence investment. Doubt they are selling as they have just recently bought more

5%- Mine workers Investments. They might be selling? They are holding 25 Million shares.

5% - Gane Holdings- They might be selling? They are holding 25 Million shares.

3%- Old Mutual selling out?

2%- WDB Investments might be selling out?

1%- PIC has been selling out. Wonder why there was no SENS on this. They held 8.5% June 2020 and only 1% December 2020. But no sens????

 

Data can be checked here: https://simplywall.s...s-health-shares

 

Today we got the SENS: PIC and MIC are offloading. They are keeping the price down.

[JR7800]

so now who at least know where some of the shares sold came form:

 

https://www.moneyweb...rdinary-shares/

[Bushmanbob]

Just a thought...we have a really dof fast asleep gov pension fund manager...they sitting on trillions...they should just match h1 and take equity....h1b only have debt...if asc raises a angel investor....we can rather retain this wealth in house....

H1b is paid out..debt closed...and asc and gpf sit with a PPP

 

Is there any chance Blantyre L1 could have purchased the debt at a discounted rate in order to resell it at full price - allowing them to make a tidy profit and giving ASC a little more time to restructure / refinance with more favorable terms?  Perhaps just a silly oversimplification on my part.

[Investment novice]

Just a thought...we have a really dof fast asleep gov pension fund manager...they sitting on trillions...they should just match h1 and take equity....h1b only have debt...if asc raises a angel investor....we can rather retain this wealth in house....

H1b is paid out..debt closed...and asc and gpf sit with a PPP

[Investment novice]

Interview with Anthony Clark
Go to Wealth Feature: Small Caps Offer Opportunity
for ASC go to 6:15


Thanks for this...i like the description that we on the bus. And market pricing the share as if you are chucked off the bus.... it sounded humurous...sarcastic...be keen to know what personal funds ac committed to this...

Large institutional investors and large share base in non institutiinal...speculators will exit at r1.50...and a second offer will come at r2. And then of you hold on...ypu will get very close to r4....just in case there is a delisting...

I have committed a chunk now..disposed my eoh..part snh and have a very nice portion here....money where my mouth is and true to myself.....if goes pear shape....its a lesson in life..

https://www.classic1...assic-business/

[Investment novice]

Look away may see this share all over the place...looking forward to get the transparent list of multiple small companies mopping up...incognito.....

How do we knoe if there is share manipulation????


The discussion thus far suggests we should try get as much volume as possible.....and buy as we can until we see near some decent info as we may then get a vertical and miss the boat?????

[DeltaHedge]

 

Yes agreed, however shareholders still need to agree on any equity fund raising. This needs to be approved by way of a special resolution. 

 

And Blantyre and L1 want the company to succeed and to be there in future as they have seen great potential here. I mean for them they could have just said ok lets sell all assets and we get our loans repaid. Done story. However they see more potential here. 

 

So what might their plans be? I doubt they want a rights issue as with a rights issue they would not get a larger portion of Ascendis equity. Also a rights issue would dilute the current shareholders fully if they don't take up the rights. And we currently know that they do not hold a substantial portion of the shares. 

 

So what other possibilities are there on the table? Companies can swap debt for equity or vice versa. So I think this is the most likely possibility. Under this instance we would convert parts of the debt into equity. So we would have a new biggest shareholder. Now the other question will be how much debt do we even need to convert? And at what price? Currently we have around 6 Billion debt. A healthy debt-to-equity ratio is at 3 times. So given an EBITDA of around 1.5 Billion our debt levels should sit at 4.5 billion or less. So this would mean we would need to convert 1.5 to 2 billion Rands of loans. At a current share price of 70 cents this would mean ASC would need to issue 2.5 billion shares. This is not feasible and would not be approved by current shareholders. 

 

So what now? Blantyre and L1 would need to "pay a higher price" to get a bigger stake in ASC. I would think that they do not want a controlling interest. So lets assume they aim for 40 to 49% of the share capital. This would be roughly 450 Million shares. So if a debt to equity swap will be on the table it will most likely be at a higher price. I would say at around 3 Rands or even higher to be approved at a special resolution.

 

This would be a genius move by Blantyre and L1. After such a transaction is complete they own a stake of 40 to 49% of a fast growing strong cash generating holding company and it would cost them less than 100 Million Euros. 

In the open market they would have had to pay 500 Million for just Remedica. Now they get Remedica and all other businesses.

 

I think they are also the ones holding the share price down currently. 

 

All I want to say guys is that there is huge potential for us in here and these okes have seen it. I'll be waiting for that announcement. A great future lies ahead of ASC.

 

Again this is just my personal opinion and no recommendation to trade in this share. I'm just brainstorming some ideas.

 

What do you guys think? Any other possible ideas?

in relaunching good businesses with temporary financial challenges

 

 

Great Analysis!

[Investment novice]

That is very insightful @andi222. I do however think that we need to look at the private equity angle (that is the type of company that Blantyre is however). With this, they will take over all shares and delist ASC. After a number of years, they will relist ASC (doing this in Europe as well should be more lucrative than in SA).

They could do this by way of converting some debt to equity, but then end up with more than 35%. This would mean that they have the option of making an offer to all minorities. Thus buy all remaining shares and delist. For this to happen, shareholders will have to agree on the price of the debt to equity.

I do hope that they announce their plans soon - they did go from 33% to 75% of the debt in no time.

On the other hand, they could delist ASC and incorporate it into L1's portfolio. So many questions and uncertainty. This is why the share price will remain subdued.

H1B are agressive and will wamt to make money- management are subdued hence- we shareholders are in for an exciting ride.
Based on theor recent moves- they more definately go for controlling interest here and at least 50% equity in ascendis. And as you said they get everything cheap targetting the group. I do think closer to 200million rather than 100million would be feasible for 50% ascendis as this is still cheap- consodering that remedica end 2021 could potentially br at 450 to 500 million itself. Sunwave- farmilider- other assets also at another 100 m cumulatively. Even if they pay 150m for 50% equity..thats getting 50% of a company for 25% of the price.
We as shareholders win as we then have a shareprice that will suddenly move vertical line on announcement to r3 at a minimum.
Dont forget further debt reduction and dividends likely already 2021 if this is concluded in the next 2 months. We could even have a 10c dividend 2021 then pushing the share to r5 upwards with excitement....

[Shi]

Interview with Anthony Clark
Go to Wealth Feature: Small Caps Offer Opportunity
for ASC go to 6:15

 

https://www.classic1...assic-business/