1645 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

Right...so who will be climbing on board now that the bottom has been mopped up...panic and fear managed....lets see what today and the subsequent days bring us...media going to definately pick up as is AC........

[Investment novice]

Think the news that remedica and sunwave will not be disposed off may have pushed a few short term investors out. ...we still in a 2 to 4 week window for more info and dont be surprised we get updates sooner rather than later. Its obvious the board or management have been engaging h1b for some time now. Acquiring 75% of the debt does not happem overnight without management being informed...there is alreafy something on the cards....be great to chat when the trend is up...

[Investment novice]

I bought more just now...loading as i go as you cannot time the bottom and here is the reason



Shareholders are now advised that the Board has received subsequent communication from Blantyre and L1
Health confirming that their exposure as Consortium Lenders has increased to more than 75% of the aggregate
exposure of all Consortium Lenders. This level of exposure enables Blantyre and L1 Health to provide or withhold
all waivers, deferrals and consents requiring Majority Lender approval under the Group’s Senior Facilities
Agreement.


Any hostile creditor has now been defused and any actions that ascendis and hlB decide on will push forward. Also asc no longer held hostage by creditos and debt can be refinanced and any scenarios we spoke about is on the table and doable.........

Downside is youre held hostage by h1 and B....but they have openly indicated their willingness for a long term relationship.....


When others panic we buy ...when others buy..we sell or hold .

[andi222]

Damn somehow people not liking the story with the recapitalization.

Can't think of anything else.

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[vishalsur]

Eish....i am looking past the noise and getting a small chunk 

Results were good in my opinion:)

[Leadingedge]

Whats happening here?? Price dropping steadily!

[J3TM4N]

I got a chunk from my steinhoff profits ..got some at 74c...

Same

[Investment novice]

I got a chunk from my steinhoff profits ..got some at 74c...

[soutie]

Brilliant results....!!!!!

Load up NOW....!!!!!

Plenty of volume...!!!!!!

Or something like that....????

[Investment novice]

Commenting on results. The sales of respirators compemsated for loss of surgical sales due to reduced elective surgery. No further sales momentum but maintemamve contracts still in place so we still have a few years of revenue for respirator company....the revenue and margins bodes well. And no billion rand impairments for the full year results....we really looking at a massive cash pile for 2021...at least r1.5b and rand stregnthening...we wiping at least 25% of debt. Remember after h1 the r700m gets swept to reduce debt by 10%. And potentially will be used to reduce euro debt......no wonder there is a play for the entire ascendis

[soutie]

I also cannot understand it.  They reporting expected EBITDA of R718 - R822 mill.  If we work of a debt level of R6.5 billion this 6 month EBITDA represents 11 - 12.6% of total debt (or 22 - 25% annualized).  
 

 

I can it's not difficult.....EBITA  is not a true reflection of overall performance.

This metric also excludes expenses associated with debt by adding back interest expense and taxes to earnings. 

[Investment novice]

Absolutely. And this is on the cards. However may find that insitutional investors may oush to r4-r6 amd this initial negagive control is a threat which actually plays to your point which i think is the real play....and they force the buyout at r3 to r4.

[Dell]

another (maybe not so fat fetched) scenario....If they offer existing shareholders R 3...they buy the ENTIRE ascendis for roughly R 1.1 billion...which sounds like it might be plus minus 70% of one year's EBITDA...which is abcolutely, completely ridiculous 

[Investment novice]

There wont be a rights issue to the market. As the current share price is deflated and not fair value.
The creditor is definately sneaky and wants the discount and 50% of the total business for 250m to 300m euros. And this includes ascendis group companies. Even if they offer 200m and help refinance the remainder debt...we all sit pretty...Andi run this scenario....and see what the nav looks like....

After having the larger share they could delist and relist in europe....if they so wanted at a better multiple

The uncertainty is less scary now that we have a greedy big brother who has access to very cheap capital....and looking for profit and cash flow greater than their wacc......and tax benefits...holding the equity and the debt ....i am still at r2 to r4....and we should expect further info now that the trading update is issued and the board is able to start negotiations with the creditor on the way forward

[Shi]

Institutional holdings https://twitter.com/...522527590404097

[Shi]

So, not selling Sunwave either. What is for sale then and how much will they get for it. This one is shouting rights issue more and more.

[Blackobar]

Todays update was good and a 10%+ rally was in order, but naaah, these new "heroes" L1 and Co, have other plans, their involvement is creating uncertainty on potential investors outside, looking in, and some insiders too.

The lenders are here to raid. The share price is being suppressed so that they can get in at a low(er) price.
How big will be the rights issue/capital raise (whether through an accelerated book build or not), it's coming, that's what they are pushing for, and they have the muscle/numbers. If they like Remedica, why did they not just buy it?
Ascendis is a good company, with horrible debt that these lenders have used to take over or raid it

[Leadingedge]

Surely there is an element of market manipulation here...why would someone continuously sell at 78c and buy back at 77c? What benefit is there in doing this?

 

Sorry, I stand corrected. The shares aren't actually being bought back according to the transaction history, but there is basically a similar counter offer put in to buy at 77c for every sale at 78c. This is all very confusing.

[JR7800]

Added some more pennies hoping for pounds.

 

Do you guys think the big investment houses can invest heavily in this share taking the risks (debt levels) and low share price into account? I would think with such an update this morning if they were able to buy big this share would have been up 10%+ by now.

 

Any thoughts?

[Leadingedge]

Surely there is an element of market manipulation here...why would someone continuously sell at 78c and buy back at 77c? What benefit is there in doing this?

Edited by Leadingedge, 02 February 2021 - 10:00 AM.