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CFD Trades - Trending Shares


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#61 Bits

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Posted 09 September 2015 - 10:53 AM

V, Pilot making no pretence about what he is doing, unlike others. Forewarned everyone is, if you don't want to spin the wheel, don't pm him.. 

Bits.


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#62 Vertebrae

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Posted 09 September 2015 - 10:38 AM

Best of luck with your venture. You will now be competing against the likes of Colin Abrams.<br /><br />Having people pay for the being a part of the mailing list will be fine. They will essentially pay for information. What they do with it, is up to them.<br /><br />I am sure you would have run this past your lawyer, but if not, I would suggest you do so before you start charging commission. Even if you sign a contract saying that you don't provide investment advice, your insistence on commission for profit made might nullify that contract. If you are challenged in court, the court might look at your intention as opposed the actual contract, which seems to be to profit from advise that you provided. <br /><br />I am not a lawyer, but I know in quite a number of court cases involving trusts the court looked passed signed contracts to the underlying essence of the transaction.

 

Another one in it for the quick buck scam. Get your own website, register yourself and pay tax.

This is a free service for the free exchange of opinions so just get lost and put your own money on the line.

And that goes for the rest of the your imaginary consortium


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Africa will never be regarded as adult until all of its organisations stop admiring and protecting criminal dictators.

MSM et al presents (sponsored) opinion as fact and seeks to indoctrinate. Journalists without ethics proliferate in a swamp of filthy lucre (BBC inclusive).

In response to decades of racism by fearful minority whites called apartheid there will be an eternity of racism by revengeful majority blacks called all kinds of excuses.

Corruption is not yet compulsory but it may as well be - Aggressive africanization uses the racist Employment Equity Act as a club.

Too many humans are too busy copulating to bother about the irresponsible, unsustainable and progressively catastrophic population explosion. 

Whilst humanity prevails so will evil. Evil will survive and thrive through sophisticated indoctrination and other conscience-suppressing disguises.

Desmond Tutu has been praying for the downfall of the ANC since 2011. Clearly he needs some assistance with such a difficult and worthy task..

Cockroaches still lurk on sharechat because it is prime real estate for their con artistry, duping and grand theft.


#63 Pilotpilot

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Posted 09 September 2015 - 09:50 AM

I am changing my short entry prices on BGA to R172-00 and SBK to 143-00. The have triggered there shorts once again this morning and I missed SBK by 3c on early morning trade @ R144-00.

 

We managed to short FSR this morning and attached is the updated spreadsheet. It is coming along very well - (up 19,2%) in the 4 days to date.

 

P

Attached Files


Edited by Pilotpilot, 09 September 2015 - 09:51 AM.

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#64 Pilotpilot

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Posted 09 September 2015 - 08:30 AM

Morning Everyone

 

There are no new orders today, but I have changed the existing orders from yesterday, as these are still in trend. All the remaining positions are still in their trend, with the resources also starting to turn and looking very promising as longer term trends (Especially ANG). The Top40 has still not broken trend and there should be resistance @ the 44500 level where we will need to test the previous break.

If we close above this level I would exit after that for the re-test of the 44500 level. The current short is from 44700 so there we might make a small profit, even if it break to the top.

 

I am taking some profit and closing half the positions in VOD and SPP. They have not reached their selling points, but I might add to this short if we test their resistance again.

 

Enjoy

 

P

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Edited by Pilotpilot, 09 September 2015 - 08:31 AM.

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#65 Pilotpilot

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Posted 09 September 2015 - 01:14 AM

Best of luck with your venture. You will now be competing against the likes of Colin Abrams.<br /><br />Having people pay for the being a part of the mailing list will be fine. They will essentially pay for information. What they do with it, is up to them.<br /><br />I am sure you would have run this past your lawyer, but if not, I would suggest you do so before you start charging commission. Even if you sign a contract saying that you don't provide investment advice, your insistence on commission for profit made might nullify that contract. If you are challenged in court, the court might look at your intention as opposed the actual contract, which seems to be to profit from advise that you provided. <br /><br />I am not a lawyer, but I know in quite a number of court cases involving trusts the court looked passed signed contracts to the underlying essence of the transaction.

 

Thanks Sakkie

 

I have consulted my lawyer and he assured me as long as I am not an intermediary (handling peoples funds) or not giving advice, it wouldn't be an issue. I should also be clearly stating to members, that the information is only informative and that it is oppinion based to provide possible entry and exit points for trades, and the decicions / trades are up to the trader to decide. He suggested a signed indemnity form, to protect both parties, so it is clear and understood.

 

Most other people only use a disclaimer on their mails to protect them.

 

On the commission issue: I will run it pass him tommorrow, and give feedback.

 

 

P


Edited by Pilotpilot, 09 September 2015 - 01:19 AM.

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#66 sakkie6

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Posted 08 September 2015 - 11:02 PM

Best of luck with your venture. You will now be competing against the likes of Colin Abrams.<br /><br />Having people pay for the being a part of the mailing list will be fine. They will essentially pay for information. What they do with it, is up to them.<br /><br />I am sure you would have run this past your lawyer, but if not, I would suggest you do so before you start charging commission. Even if you sign a contract saying that you don't provide investment advice, your insistence on commission for profit made might nullify that contract. If you are challenged in court, the court might look at your intention as opposed the actual contract, which seems to be to profit from advise that you provided. <br /><br />I am not a lawyer, but I know in quite a number of court cases involving trusts the court looked passed signed contracts to the underlying essence of the transaction.
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#67 Pilotpilot

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Posted 08 September 2015 - 05:22 PM

Just a quick update after closing.

 

Portfolio up 8,2% (R15 100) after the 3 days of trading. The portfolio now has a net exposure of R400 000 long. 

 

Not one new trade triggered today, but I will update tommorrow on possible closing of positions.

 

P

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#68 Pilotpilot

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Posted 08 September 2015 - 03:54 PM

There are 3 shares that are not holding trend and have broken their resistance levels.

 

I am closing all 3 Short positions tonight at closing for SAB, CLS and NPN. All 3 had strong days today. I might be adding for long positions tommorrow.

 

P


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#69 Pilotpilot

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Posted 08 September 2015 - 01:45 PM

Welcome back Pilot...good to see you rocking the boat again! ;)

 

A

 

Cheers Argento! ;) Good to be back.

 

I am keeping a close eye on the 44100 resistance on the Top40. Not all the shares are short at the moment. The net position for the porfolio is currently @ 0, with equal longs and shorts.

 

Thanks for keeping me on my toes!! :)


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#70 Argento

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Posted 08 September 2015 - 12:55 PM

Morning everyone

 

I am not adding any new orders today, but I have changed the prices on yesterday's orders. The financials went down hard yesterday, and could be testing their resistance today.

 

The resource shares are still at support level and need to turn into their new uptrends. Should be today or tommorrow at least.

 

The Top40 confirmed a strong downtrend entry yesterday at 13:00. We will also be testing that resistance level today @ around (44000 - 44100), so the market should be slightly up today.

 

We might even hit these levels, and could mean a stronger downtrend to come.

 

P

Welcome back Pilot...good to see you rocking the boat again! ;)

 

A


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#71 Argento

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Posted 08 September 2015 - 12:40 PM

Morning everyone

 

I am not adding any new orders today, but I have changed the prices on yesterday's orders. The financials went down hard yesterday, and could be testing their resistance today.

 

The resource shares are still at support level and need to turn into their new uptrends. Should be today or tommorrow at least.

 

The Top40 confirmed a strong downtrend entry yesterday at 13:00. We will also be testing that resistance level today @ around (44000 - 44100), so the market should be slightly up today.

 

We might even hit these levels, and could mean a stronger downtrend to come.

 

P

Be careful with shorts on the Top40...IMO we are going to see a strong (zig zag possibly) run into last week of September before weakness again!The daily MACD is very bullish atm!

 

A


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#72 davidp13

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Posted 08 September 2015 - 11:32 AM

LT short on SOL

Open yesterday at open - 431.52

lets see


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#73 Pilotpilot

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Posted 08 September 2015 - 07:43 AM

Morning everyone

 

I am not adding any new orders today, but I have changed the prices on yesterday's orders. The financials went down hard yesterday, and could be testing their resistance today.

 

The resource shares are still at support level and need to turn into their new uptrends. Should be today or tommorrow at least.

 

The Top40 confirmed a strong downtrend entry yesterday at 13:00. We will also be testing that resistance level today @ around (44000 - 44100), so the market should be slightly up today.

 

We might even hit these levels, and could mean a stronger downtrend to come.

 

P

 

 

Attached Files


Edited by Pilotpilot, 08 September 2015 - 07:44 AM.

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#74 Pilotpilot

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Posted 07 September 2015 - 09:50 PM

Hi Gents/Ladies

 

I am starting a mailing list for those interested in joining. It will be at a cost unfortunately, but I would like to explain why and more about the Trending Shares methodology.  

For those of you that don’t know, I have been investing since 1994 and was fascinated with the Stock Exchange (and I still am). I have a strong maths background and I am constantly working and testing new ideas to figure out why and when to buy shares. Warren Buffet , had me hooked on value investing by 2005, but I was a big fan of technical analysis. So since 2006 I backed only value shares and used technical analysis to determine good entry points. I started using SSF in 2008 to increase my exposure, but at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 I had a massive loss. I was holding shares like BRN, OML, SHF and TKG. In those days it was the best value I could find on the market, and if I held them till today, I would have done well. But if there is panic and fear in the market, you can hold the best of shares, they will get smashed. And when you think it’s the bottom.... they get smashed some more.

 

I have come to realise, that the stock market trends are controlled by the traders and not by the long term investors. They very rarely sell shares, and these shares are taken out of the calculation when trading occurs. The long term trend of a share will primarily be driven by company fundamentals and growth, but when it comes to the swings and short term trends in the market, it is ruled by the traders. When I realised in 2008 how big the Hedge Funds were and how big their impact is on share prices and corrections, I changed my view on the way the market is moving. Fundamentals weren’t moving it, not in the short term anyway. So my interest changed to reading up everything on market cycles and trends, to determine which shares do best in which part of the cycle. It is all good to know this, but to know when a new trend starts and ends, is probably the most valuable piece of information to have. And that took me right back to my Technical analysis. Three years ago I was full time into technical analysis and tried about 100 different technical indicators and patterns. Using them in different ways, and added % chance of success, on each of them. Most of them don't work on their own effectively, but there were 15 that had 50% or better result. Most others have an even less than 50% chance of making you money.

The last year my focus swung to what happens right before an up- or downtrend and I found that certain (modified) indicators do the same thing nearly every time a new trend starts (about 85% success). In March this year I ran preliminary data on Jan, Feb and March of 2015 and came to the astonishing conclusion, of doing 67%, 80% and 55% in each of those months (with gearing of course) when doing back tests. Around 10-20% gains without gearing.

 

My next step was to prove it works in real trading scenarios and thus the thread, I started on sharechat in week 20 (May 2015). My aim was to do 60-80% per month with gearing and it did just over 50% in the first month, but week 24 and 25 caused me to have losses (see below), that I needed to sort out first and do more back testing.

 

Week 20 

R 200 000.00 

R 13 288.73     

6.64%

R 213 288.73

 

Week 21

R 213 288.73

R 37 749.84

17.70%

R 251 038.57

 

Week 22

R 251 038.57

R 25 908.32

10.32%

R 276 946.89

 

Week 23

R 276 946.89

R 26 894.27

9.71%

R 303 841.16

 

Week 24

R 303 841.16

-R 1 074.65

-0.35%

R 302 766.51

 

Week 25

R 302 766.51

-R 49 898.05

-16.48%

R 252 868.46

 

It took me much longer than I anticipated getting everything working together. One of the main reasons for the losses week 24/25 was because of large overnight changes in the share price, and movements against me before I could close my positions. I worked on shorter timeframes to warn in advance of trends changing. I now use 2 and 3 hour timeframes, with my daily indicators to warn beforehand of changing momentum. Because I use multiple time frames, I realised that the results on trades have improved as well. Although picking the bottom or top of a trade isn’t always spot-on, the triggers I get are pretty close, and might be off by 1-3 days before taking the new trend. I now also have a better exit strategy than the previous trail run.

 

I use RSI indicators, Divergence indicators (I developed myself), STS indicators (modified),  sma's and wma's and all in different time frames. Most of these indicators values have been changed to give smoother and more accurate trigger points. Some of the short term Indicators need to do the same thing at the same time, to trigger a trend change. Lastly, I would check the graph, and especially with big formation breaks, it confirms the new trend and the break. Then a new trend has started (most of the time).

There are 2 tipes off triggers I have set up.

  1. Indicating trend reversals
  2. Overbought or oversold conditions in a current trend (with some other criteria)

I will only trade long in bull trend, and short in a bear trend.

 

I am extremely confident about this model and have left my job to follow my passion and pursue trading full time from now on, and with my own funds. I don’t want to use my current funds to support my salary and have decided to try and generate an income from this model if possible or I need to sell it.

 

For those that want to join the mailing list it would cost R2000 up front, which I will gladly return if you decide to opt out, anytime within the first 3 months. The first week will be free. A commission based payment on profits made, to be paid after every 2nd week thereafter. If we don’t make a profit, I don’t get anything either. Commission will only be paid after profit is made, so the risk is low for members.

 

There will be a max limit of 15-20 members, as we could get too big for future trades. Each member will get a number from 1-15 or 20 as they join and it will work on a last-in first-out basis, if we need to reduce members in future.

I will also attend to other shares that members may have and will do analysis on these too. I will also add long term trend changes on shares to members in future.

 

To comply with the law, I may not be an Intermediary and thus cannot handle anyone’s funds. Everyone needs to do their own trades, at their own risk and is responsible for their RICA and Tax. There will be an Indemnity form for each party to sign, to protect both from harm. The mailing list will also be seen as sharing of information and not giving advice of any sort.

 

I would like to pursue my passion in this way.

 

If anyone has any other inputs or questions, please post , PM  or mail to: trendingshares @ gmail.com

 

For those that want to join, pm or mail me with your E-mail address, and we can get things rolling.

 

Regards and happy trading

 

 

Pilot


Edited by Pilotpilot, 07 September 2015 - 09:55 PM.

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#75 Pilotpilot

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Posted 07 September 2015 - 05:26 PM

Hi Pilot

 

How do we get onto your mailing list?

 

Glad to see you back here.

Thanks Mr_SA

 

I will post later tonight on the mailing list.

 

Attached is quick update after trading today. Porfolio up 6,46% for the 2 1/2 trading days and most of the positions looks good.

 

I have slight concerns on BIL, EXX and SOL, because they are trading out of range, but so is the oil price and they are very much connected to this one.

 

Very few triggers today, but there will be a couple of new trades for tommorrow.

 

P

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#76 Mr_SA

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Posted 07 September 2015 - 11:30 AM

Evening Everyone

 

Attached is the spreadsheet for week 37. I didn't close off week 36, as it was only 1 1/2 days and added last weeks values to this week.

 

The only long positions strong enough was LHC and MDC, with some more resource and gold long positions.

 

It seems as though most of the market sectors will still be bearish, and my feeling is some more downside for the month to come, with the exception of resources and healthcare.

 

This will be the last week that I post the portfolio daily on Sharechat. From next week I will share it on a mailing list, for those that are intrested in joining. I will post the weekly updates on sharechat to show the performance. I will give more detail for those intrested later.

 

Enjoy the week.

 

P

 

Hi Pilot

 

How do we get onto your mailing list?

 

Glad to see you back here.


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#77 Jakkals

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Posted 07 September 2015 - 09:26 AM

Evening Everyone

 

Attached is the spreadsheet for week 37. I didn't close off week 36, as it was only 1 1/2 days and added last weeks values to this week.

 

The only long positions strong enough was LHC and MDC, with some more resource and gold long positions.

 

It seems as though most of the market sectors will still be bearish, and my feeling is some more downside for the month to come, with the exception of resources and healthcare.

 

This will be the last week that I post the portfolio daily on Sharechat. From next week I will share it on a mailing list, for those that are intrested in joining. I will post the weekly updates on sharechat to show the performance. I will give more detail for those intrested later.

 

Enjoy the week.

 

P

Thanks Pilot,

 

Safe trading.


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#78 Pilotpilot

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Posted 06 September 2015 - 08:19 PM

Evening Everyone

 

Attached is the spreadsheet for week 37. I didn't close off week 36, as it was only 1 1/2 days and added last weeks values to this week.

 

The only long positions strong enough was LHC and MDC, with some more resource and gold long positions.

 

It seems as though most of the market sectors will still be bearish, and my feeling is some more downside for the month to come, with the exception of resources and healthcare.

 

This will be the last week that I post the portfolio daily on Sharechat. From next week I will share it on a mailing list, for those that are intrested in joining. I will post the weekly updates on sharechat to show the performance. I will give more detail for those intrested later.

 

Enjoy the week.

 

P

Attached Files


Edited by Pilotpilot, 06 September 2015 - 08:20 PM.

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#79 Pilotpilot

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Posted 05 September 2015 - 10:53 AM

Attached is the end of the week positions. R6 800 profit was made for the 1 1/2 days trading.

 

I like all the positions, with the nett exposure of R240 000 short. I will some new orders on Sunday.

 

 

P

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#80 Pilotpilot

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Posted 05 September 2015 - 07:42 AM

Tx Pilot, agreed!

 

whats your tp on this one, taking divi into account.

 

Tp is @ R80-00, but it should drop below this level. I have trigger set up for closing.


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