15225 replies to this topic

[DayTraderDad]

Steinhoff has absolutely no control over people either at Steinhoff or with external parties who break the covenant of confidentiality. 

 

Steinhoff also has no legal nor good practice basis to engage the public or shareholders until matters are relatively advanced and there is a degree of certainty.

 

Quick question:  If all these discussions were true, or at such an advanced stage, why would people want to remain anonymous.

 

Steinhoff is newsworthy and is clickbait.  If LDP and his crew had to respond to every rumour and article attributed to Steinhoff, this would be a full time job.  It wouls also be pointless and very possibly detrimental in their negotiations.

 

Journalist have sources, and the nature of their work means that they will exaggerate or even print rubbish to ensure that the article will be read.

 

For heaven's sake DTD...you of all people know that I have more of a right to be referred to as " ...a person close to the business that want to remain anonymous".

Thank you Captain I understand I am on the same page as you and agree with your comments.

 

I also agree its impossible for management to respond to every article but management will have to invent a way where IR will start to stand up to news rumours of high importance.

 

It does not matter what you and me think the reality out there will be people are expecting something to happen and they put the E4 bil IPO in their calculation. The Times is a reputable newspaper.

 

Captain: Quick question:  If all these discussions were true, or at such an advanced stage, why would people want to remain anonymous.

 

DTD: This is the problem I am talking about even if the media are not telling the truth or bending the truth the public/investors tend to believe them.

          On the other side of the coin to your question many people will say well the article must be true because SNH has not commented/denied and for what reason would the Times

           invent this story.

 

Anyway soon we will get to know why there was a sudden jump of 30%.

[Captainfrom82]

 

Hi Captain,

 

Yes I know what you trying to say and I have agreed before I believe in the management very proud of the handwork they are doing to turn a difficult situation around and I say again I don't believe the board are going around leaking information but at the same time we need to be realistic and understand that there is news continuously coming out in the media that after a while becomes the reality and SNH management playing catch up.

 

Virtually every article comes with the comment " stated by a person close to the business that want to remain anonymous" ( something in these lines).

 

A good example:

 

" https://www.retailga...loat-september/

 

Poundland owner Pepkor in talks over sale or float for September

 

Poundland owner Pepkor Europe is reported to be considering a sale or flotation in September, as it looks to separate itself from parent company Steinhoff.

 

According to the Times, Pepkor will look at a €4 billion (£3.66 billion) sale next month, after refinancing its high-interest debts and distancing itself from Steinhoff.

 

It is understood by the Times that Pepkor Europe has held meetings with legal advisers and will seek advice next month on a dual track process to explore a stock exchange listing and a sale.

 

Sources said that the business would probably have a valuation of at least €4 billion and was likely to attract significant interest from private equity firms."

 

So my question how did the Times journalist know this?????

 

Why what this not disclosed on the presentation 3 days before where LdP could have given the SNH side and stop all speculation???

 

A reality after this article the share tanked to its lowest. Now we don't know is it true or is it not. If SNH made a media statement clarifying these talks would be different story.

 

Its all about communication.

 

Regards,

DTD

 

 

Steinhoff has absolutely no control over people either at Steinhoff or with external parties who break the covenant of confidentiality. 

 

Steinhoff also has no legal nor good practice basis to engage the public or shareholders until matters are relatively advanced and there is a degree of certainty.

 

Quick question:  If all these discussions were true, or at such an advanced stage, why would people want to remain anonymous.

 

Steinhoff is newsworthy and is clickbait.  If LDP and his crew had to respond to every rumour and article attributed to Steinhoff, this would be a full time job.  It wouls also be pointless and very possibly detrimental in their negotiations.

 

Journalist have sources, and the nature of their work means that they will exaggerate or even print rubbish to ensure that the article will be read.

 

For heaven's sake DTD...you of all people know that I have more of a right to be referred to as " ...a person close to the business that want to remain anonymous".

[DayTraderDad]

Hi Captain,

 

Yes I know what you trying to say and I have agreed before I believe in the management very proud of the handwork they are doing to turn a difficult situation around and I say again I don't believe the board are going around leaking information but at the same time we need to be realistic and understand that there is news continuously coming out in the media that after a while becomes the reality and SNH management playing catch up.

 

Virtually every article comes with the comment " stated by a person close to the business that want to remain anonymous" ( something in these lines).

 

A good example:

 

" https://www.retailga...loat-september/

 

Poundland owner Pepkor in talks over sale or float for September

 

Poundland owner Pepkor Europe is reported to be considering a sale or flotation in September, as it looks to separate itself from parent company Steinhoff.

 

According to the Times, Pepkor will look at a €4 billion (£3.66 billion) sale next month, after refinancing its high-interest debts and distancing itself from Steinhoff.

 

It is understood by the Times that Pepkor Europe has held meetings with legal advisers and will seek advice next month on a dual track process to explore a stock exchange listing and a sale.

 

Sources said that the business would probably have a valuation of at least €4 billion and was likely to attract significant interest from private equity firms."

 

So my question how did the Times journalist know this?????

 

Why what this not disclosed on the presentation 3 days before where LdP could have given the SNH side and stop all speculation???

 

A reality after this article the share tanked to its lowest. Now we don't know is it true or is it not. If SNH made a media statement clarifying these talks would be different story.

 

Its all about communication.

 

Regards,

DTD

 

[Investment novice]

Thanks for the dialogue

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[Captainfrom82]

Hi Captain,

 

I am not saying management is leaking information and agree the report was kept secrete which was a very big surprise to me in view that there were lots of people working on the investigation.

 

So who are you then suggesting is leaking this information?  How do you propose that Steinhoff Management control this beyond what they are already doing?

 

The reason I mention to a few is by the time the articles are published on Bloomberg there are people that know before the article is published.

 

Who, DTD, are these nameless people that you refer to.  What is your proof?  You need to substantiate a statement like this..   You cannot make a vague statement like this and then have some people  think this is a factual utterance.  We already have so many negative people who repeatedly call the management useless without actually considering the facts. 

 

There are a number of instances where the news comes out on media. Below just the biggest:

 

1 - It was the media that first mention MF going for CH11 this was weeks before it happened.

2 - If was the media that said Conforama looking at restructuring. Few weeks later the announcement.

3 - Greenlit Brands was the same talk about selling part of the business which then happened a few weeks later some property if I recall correctly.

 

Steinhoff will release a statement when there is a degree of certainty.  They have gone on record as stating repeatedly that they are restructuring.  They are unbundling non-core assets.  I am baffld taht you see a need that they annouce this even while they are in negotiations.  Quote me on example of any company that does this while they are still considering and negotiating with prospective suitors.

 

There are many more and I still think the biggest enemy SNH has is its own IR department  that should be more active with information. 

 

One can go back time and time again in many instances the share price always runs/falls  before the announcement. 

 

DTD, I am really battling to see how this is management's fault when there may be people acting illegally or with inside information due to the negotiations?

 

I agree don't believe that management is leaking information but then who is talking to the media? That's is what IR should be fighting.

 

Look what happened with Capitec how well they defended against the  Viceroy report.

 

As it is well known I fully support management and believe in SNH but also have to criticise where it deserves.

 

Agreed.  If they are doing wrong, by all means criticize.  If you really think that that they are so poor, sell your shares.  But don't criticize the farmer when your belly is full.Regards,

 

DTD

[DayTraderDad]

Yes!  The operative word being "assets".  Not valuation as has now been posted.

 

They got that from the 1H19 Financial Statements Balance Sheet as at 31 March 2019.  It is 100% factually correct.as is the logical and informed basis from which to report as this figure excludes MF.  Confo had not yet been determined as discontinued operations.

 

Would you rather someone thumb sucked a valuation and have this published?  Or is it better to report from this factual basis?

 

Regards

Captainfrom82

Hi Captain,

 

Yes I agree the figures is correct  for the 31 March 2019 but in August its outdated because Conforama 49,9% is gone and PEPKOR is said in media to be listed valued by E4 Bil.

 

I agree the listing of PEPKOR EU is just news and not fact but going to have a impact on asset value.

 

Anyway agree very happy at least they used a balance sheet figure.

 

Regards,

DTD 

[Captainfrom82]

 

 Captain below quote of the article:  They referring to assets so where will they get the 15 bil when SNH only owns 45% of MF and 50.1% of Conforama? In my view the figure it totally incorrect.

 

"Steinhoff International Holdings NV may have about 15 billion euros ($16.6 billion) of assets and stakes in profitable companies such as Pepkor Holdings Ltd., but you won’t see that reflected in the share price."

 

 

 

Yes!  The operative word being "assets".  Not valuation as has now been posted.

 

They got that from the 1H19 Financial Statements Balance Sheet as at 31 March 2019.  It is 100% factually correct.as is the logical and informed basis from which to report as this figure excludes MF.  Confo had not yet been determined as discontinued operations.

 

Would you rather someone thumb sucked a valuation and have this published?  Or is it better to report from this factual basis?

 

Regards

Captainfrom82

[DayTraderDad]

Sorry Captain most recently it was the media that first said PEPKOR EU planning to do a IPO with a initial value of E4 bil.

[DayTraderDad]

DTD, that was a misquote.  I do not think people have valued it at E16b.  See my response to IN.

 Captain below quote of the article:  They referring to assets so where will they get the 15 bil when SNH only owns 45% of MF and 50.1% of Conforama? In my view the figure it totally incorrect.

 

"Steinhoff International Holdings NV may have about 15 billion euros ($16.6 billion) of assets and stakes in profitable companies such as Pepkor Holdings Ltd., but you won’t see that reflected in the share price."

[DayTraderDad]

DTD, can you please provide concrete example where "it was leaked as usual to a few and they buying".

 

I mean, they managed to keep the PwC Report, the AFS17 , the AFS18, The LUA and the the confirmation of the CVA implementation, the Investor Day presentations...all of this was controlled and kept under wraps until it was in the public domain.

 

What makes you think that info has been leaked?  It worries me when people post negatively without substantiating.  This forum is read across the world.  Posts stay here permanently - both good and negative. 

 

Yours Curious,

Captainfrom82

Hi Captain,

 

I am not saying management is leaking information and agree the report was kept secrete which was a very big surprise to me in view that there were lots of people working on the investigation.

 

The reason I mention to a few is by the time the articles are published on Bloomberg there are people that know before the article is published.

 

There are a number of instances where the news comes out on media. Below just the biggest:

 

1 - It was the media that first mention MF going for CH11 this was weeks before it happened.

2 - If was the media that said Conforama looking at restructuring. Few weeks later the announcement.

3 - Greenlit Brands was the same talk about selling part of the business which then happened a few weeks later some property if I recall correctly.

 

There are many more and I still think the biggest enemy SNH has is its own IR department  that should be more active with information. 

 

One can go back time and time again in many instances the share price always runs/falls  before the announcement. 

 

I agree don't believe that management is leaking information but then who is talking to the media? That's is what IR should be fighting.

 

Look what happened with Capitec how well they defended against the  Viceroy report.

 

As it is well known I fully support management and believe in SNH but also have to criticise where it deserves.

 

 

Regards,

DTD

[Captainfrom82]

I am not sure this is a recovery 30% rise without any news is not good. I just hope that there is good news on the way and it was leaked as usual to a few and they buying.

 

DTD, can you please provide concrete example where "it was leaked as usual to a few and they buying".

 

I mean, they managed to keep the PwC Report, the AFS17 , the AFS18, The LUA and the the confirmation of the CVA implementation, the Investor Day presentations...all of this was controlled and kept under wraps until it was in the public domain.

 

What makes you think that info has been leaked?  It worries me when people post negatively without substantiating.  This forum is read across the world.  Posts stay here permanently - both good and negative. 

 

Yours Curious,

Captainfrom82

[Captainfrom82]

I believe SNH is not valued at 16 bil maximum it can be is 12 Bil, legal issues still there nothing changed there is no new news, for me it is people speculating (maybe some leaked information to a few) the Q3 update is going to be very good so positioning because SNH was way too cheap. And people speculating that Brexit going to be sorted without a deal Brexit but this afternoon there could be a surprise not sure the French are so accommodating as the German to the British PM.

 

DTD, that was a misquote.  I do not think people have valued it at E16b.  See my response to IN.

[Captainfrom82]

Whats driving interest in the price.... Is it the fact that snh has a 16 billion valuation excluding legal liability.
Is it perhaps realization that legal issues may either be settled or very very very delayed....
Or is it just coincidental as this is a valueless share...

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Hey IN,

 

I generally hate commenting or trying to predict price.  I have always said this is beyond by circle of expertise.  I also think that human behavior is not a pure science, and therefore you will almost never ever obtain agreement on a prediction from so-called human behavior experts.  The joke about getting 10 different economists to make a prediction will lead to 10 different outcomes is IMHO correct. 

 

So, other than the following three sentences in this paragraph, I do not wish to comment on "Whats driving interest in the price", as it is all speculation.  It could be Pump and Dump as has been speculated, or it could be news that is not yet in the public domain (very unlikely in my opinion as Steinhoff has managed to keep far more sensitive matters eg PwC report, FY17 and FY18 AFS under wraps - why would they suddenly lose focus and have this breach now?).  It could even be investors suddenly more optimistic about the global general retail sector.  Why knows??

 

However, I would like to advise on the "16 billion valuation" you state, which I presume is a (mis)quote of the Bloomberg article.  I want to point out that there is a subtle but extremely important difference between the Bloomberg article and your pronouncement of "16 billion valuation" 

 

The E16b Bloomberg wrote of, refers to  assets  and NOT valuation.  I also note that Andi222 had queried where did t his figure come from in his original post relating to the Bloomberg article.

 

The answer is that they probably took this E16b figure from the FY18 AFS (total assets = E16370m).  Note that this figure compares very closely to the 1H19 total assets of E15093 (there were minor variances).

 

From a fundamental analysis perspective that total assets figure in itself is crazy (as it tells you very little about the net position after subtracting the debt).  Also, some may argue that since the litigation has also not been provided or accounted for, just quoting the total assets is mystifying if not downright incorrect.  

 

However, if one were to ignore those points for a moment, and just try to see if this R16b is a true reflection of the worth or value of Steinhoff's assets, it does then provide a useful pivot from which to consider matters.   I also think that the "fuzziness" of the Steinhoff master-plan becomes more focused and clearer.  

 

It is very revealing that some of the huge subsidiaries, for example Mattress Firm and Confo had a carrying value of zero in terms of the Goodwill with a very small value assigned to Intangible Assets.  All of this only came about since the accounting scandal when voluntary HUGE impairments determined by management were brought to book.  Prior to this Steinhoff's asset base reflected significantly higher values. 

 

The obvious argument is going to be that this is fair and correct due to the financial improprieties.  Maybe!   But I cannot see how a business that was acquired for an enterprise value of $3.8b is worth $0 barely 18 months later.  Even if Steinhoff overpaid by the 115%, the business had an enterprise value of $1.9b.  To impair it to zero while at the same time predicting over $200m EBITDA for 2020 is curious.

 

Incidentally, I have contacted a few members of this forum to come up with their own evaluation of the assets, using whatever methodology they see fit.  That would be an interesting exercise as it would allow us to compare the carrying value vs the estimated value of assets.

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

[DayTraderDad]

Steinhoff Share: What should be kept of this price movement? - Chart analysis

 

After the recent crash of the Steinhoff share to EUR 0.0513, the share price of the group recovered significantly yesterday and today. But so far, the movement does not come to more than the status of a pullback. In the technical analysis, the increase in the Steinhoff share to today reached € 0.071 so far means a return to the previous all-time low, which was last fell short. The fact that Steinhoff's share price is currently at daily highs and wins 5.5 percent compared to the previous day does not necessarily mean anything.

 

Around the previous all-time low around a resistance zone has established between 0.0695 € and 0.0713 €, which was previously regarded as a support zone. Closely above this, further technical barriers with a core range of 0.0725 / 0.0742 Euro are the picture of a broad resistance zone which must be overcome stably before the current price recovery for the Steinhoff share exceeds the pullback congestion. Further obstacles would be seen at 0.078 / 0.079 Euro and 0.082 / 0.083 Euro. 

 

If the share price falls off the range but downwards, so threatened to lose again. At 0.059 / 0.061, there would be a first possible support token in this scenario. Below that would be already the low at 0.051 / 0.053 euros again targeted.

 

By the way: On August 30, the general meeting of shareholders is scheduled. Course-relevant news about the company can not be seen today. 

[Investment novice]

I am not sure this is a recovery 30% rise without any news is not good. I just hope that there is good news on the way and it was leaked as usual to a few and they buying.

Exactly... Pump and dump... Beware... Buy and sell if youre a trader... If investor.... Look away for months or years

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[DayTraderDad]

Well hope its not pump and dump and sustained recovery and new base formed

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I am not sure this is a recovery 30% rise without any news is not good. I just hope that there is good news on the way and it was leaked as usual to a few and they buying.

[Investment novice]

Well hope its not pump and dump and sustained recovery and new base formed

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[DayTraderDad]

Whats driving interest in the price.... Is it the fact that snh has a 16 billion valuation excluding legal liability.
Is it perhaps realization that legal issues may either be settled or very very very delayed....
Or is it just coincidental as this is a valueless share...

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

I believe SNH is not valued at 16 bil maximum it can be is 12 Bil, legal issues still there nothing changed there is no new news, for me it is people speculating (maybe some leaked information to a few) the Q3 update is going to be very good so positioning because SNH was way too cheap. And people speculating that Brexit going to be sorted without a deal Brexit but this afternoon there could be a surprise not sure the French are so accommodating as the German to the British PM.

Edited by DayTraderDad, 22 August 2019 - 11:41 AM.

[Investment novice]

Whats driving interest in the price.... Is it the fact that snh has a 16 billion valuation excluding legal liability.
Is it perhaps realization that legal issues may either be settled or very very very delayed....
Or is it just coincidental as this is a valueless share...

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[Lionelza1]

I do believe we need more than just a trade update for the price to go up.

FYI, the price was at R3,80 a year ago with a lot less info, which in my opinion has been quite positive.  (i agree on this and i expected share to rise but was baffled by market reaction)At worst, accurate and assertive from management.
The reasons for dump was probably due to du preez’s comment about not being to trade out of this. (i disagree, i would say conned by Mr market)

Let’s hope for a decent financial performance and accelerated progress on litigation.

Also, I have not lost a cent as I haven’t sold anything.(agree 100%) Remember this and also that there’s big difference between trading and investing.
Most investors add to their portfolio when price drops.

This is still a worthwhile high risk investment for me. (for me i will still play snh, not now as i believe Mr market still going to knock price lower, when i hear of progress w.r.t litigation is when my mindset will change for the long run, debt is not much of an issue because snh is not being boycott by customers, they still making sales)

 

and before DTD says it, no i do not hate snh......just more carefull