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Life healthcare Netcare mediclinic aspen advanced health discovery health alexandra forbes momentum dischem

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#101 Midas1

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Posted 30 August 2019 - 01:52 PM

Hi IN, another question,,this reduction in medicine costs is years away though?
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#102 Midas1

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Posted 30 August 2019 - 01:43 PM

Thanks a lot interesting,, so you reckon apn should head down ? Have good weekend
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#103 Investment novice

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Posted 30 August 2019 - 01:34 PM

Found it was out last night...so they reckon pharmaceuticals will get 20 percent cheaper ? Based for aspen and adcock hey ...


High volume medicines specified in a liat called a formulary covering 80% of marlet will reduce more than 50%.....some expensive low volume probably 20%...

But investigation like pathology, genetic testing, radiology all going to reduce as well. Hospitals will be able to offer the services as well which means new business for hospitals. They will employ drs as well... Some nice changes coming through...

Netcare looking at buying radiology business cant confirm... Gossip... Big mistake... Buy at a premium based on todays prices and old technology and then deliver at reduced prices......

Looking out for news daily


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#104 Midas1

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Posted 30 August 2019 - 12:46 PM

https://www.iol.co.z...rative-31536695
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#105 Midas1

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Posted 30 August 2019 - 12:15 PM

Found it was out last night...so they reckon pharmaceuticals will get 20 percent cheaper ? Based for aspen and adcock hey ...
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#106 Midas1

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Posted 30 August 2019 - 12:01 PM

Have you link..what think apn going do
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#107 Investment novice

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Posted 30 August 2019 - 11:59 AM

Market in shock as nhi bill passes constitutional hurdle... Should see some ups and downs....

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#108 Midas1

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Posted 29 August 2019 - 08:09 AM

Opinion apn....
Aspen faces a number of issues including: 1) The generics sector is under pressure from healthcare austerity, regulator pressure and competition. 2) Aspen's ‘acquire, improve, de-lever go again’ business model looks broke.3) Visibility on top-line, margin progression and hence earnings is limited and working capital remains a drain. 4) Leverage is too high (3.7x) and the market is concerned about the need for an equity issue. We think Aspen should cancel the dividend. 5) Newsflow has disappointed with a deal for Aspen’s European business seemingly falling away and no news on its US women’s health partner. 6) Accounting and disclosure remains an issue for some.7) Reputational damage from price gouging issues in Europe.

However, in our view the stock looks cheap and oversold. Management has clearly made errors in over-leveraging the balance sheet but they remain driven individuals with skin in the game. In our view barring the most bearish of scenarios we still think Aspen can trade itself out of its current problems. Results are due on Sept 12th and we would expect a trading statement a week or so ahead of results. We are looking for CNHEPS of R 14.1 (Bloomberg EPS 14) and whilst Aspen's recent track record doesn’t fill us with confidence that it will hit our numbers given the recent sell off, a lot of negatives appear to be in the price. Nonetheless whilst we think Aspen looks cheap and we think it will be able to trade its way out of trouble without an equity issue but we aren’t certain. We hence retain our Neutral recommendation as we would rather miss a bounce on results than get caught in a downward spiral.
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#109 Midas1

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Posted 28 August 2019 - 05:29 PM

Wonder why Aspen so strong today..?
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#110 Investment novice

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Posted 28 August 2019 - 12:59 PM

There is a nice trading opportunity on hospital shares. Expect positive numbers from all hospital groups based on flue patterns this year. Pump and dump post trading update as next year expect down trend..

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#111 Investment novice

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Posted 28 August 2019 - 08:55 AM

Pleasure...
Government is on track to promote health reform initiatives in both public and private sector.... Most people focussing in negatives of nhi... But even before we get the full transformation , we the public will certainly benefit from the incremental improvements in the private health market which for all of us is a grudge purchase with medical aid premiums always incaresing double digits to support a system which we desperately need. Imagine getting the same care but at a lower price...... It is definately doable..... Especially as just described with pharmaceuticals etc... Laboratory tests and alot more..

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#112 Midas1

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Posted 28 August 2019 - 07:59 AM

Thanks IN, may look at shorting this when it looks right to do
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#113 Investment novice

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Posted 28 August 2019 - 07:28 AM

Interesting information coming from various gov spokesman...

The first shocking info is on price cuts on medication... Government medicines equivalent product upto 900% more expensive in private sector.... Price regulation will save all of us lots of money and prevent ongoing abuse.

Aspen shares have been taking a knock based on this probability... And expect the compnay is going to have alot more revenie challenges and probably also expect to off load more assets to cut debt... Expect share price to drop below r50 soon...




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#114 Investment novice

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Posted 26 August 2019 - 12:54 PM

Here is something quite interesting.... We ave all been reading the news headlines on nhi and the many posts on what a failure soes are and the public sector is failing in health delivery.

All the artciles have posed the nhi as doom amd gloom and not realistic...

I met a person over the weekend for a spring braai....he works closely with all stakeholders on health and from the obvious facts around the issues we have in both public and private health that requires fixing... This expert says lookout for a damning hmi report that is a political nail in private coffin and significant changes coming that will reault in lower costs for all of us being screwed by the private health market. Currently there is a hospital association conference where no position will be artic ulated to defend against hmi and nhi.

The second interesting point which none of the journalists have picked on is gems... Gems was always designed to be the nhi pilot...government has been able to manage the scheme and has learnings amd best practice from all ita partners.
The expert poaitions gems as phase one which is complete and will guide on expansion by capturing all related schemes including polmed, raf, coid. Etc...

Lookout market.... We are in for a merry ride...hopefully as consumers we benefit but from hospital stocks perspextives their valuations are going to be reviewed... Discovery is in for hard times.

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#115 Investment novice

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 08:29 AM

Maybe speculative similar to discovery.... Aspen debt strained and no indication theyre in a takeover.
They well positioned for low margin government contracts.
Recovery in health share prices expected for next two months and then another big dip next year jan to june...

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#116 Midas1

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 07:33 AM

Think something else could be brewing re Aspen rise in days
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#117 Midas1

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 06:55 AM

There results are out 12 sep
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#118 Bread

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 11:26 PM

Apn...allan gray bought 5 percent 2 days ago..

 

Thanks


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#119 Midas1

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 07:38 PM

Apn...allan gray bought 5 percent 2 days ago..
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#120 Midas1

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 04:57 PM

Aspen...any ideas anyone re sudden increase in last days?
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Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: Life healthcare Netcare, mediclinic, aspen, advanced health, discovery health, alexandra forbes, momentum, dischem


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